Finlay's Thoughts on MLS Officiating

Moment of the match last night goes to Ethan Finlay. You hear the voices of players picked up all the time during MLS matches. The league's desire to pick up as much crowd noise from often quiet stadiums during the match ensures it. Montreal's Olympic Stadium is the best for this. Huge crowd but the "O" is a cavernous facility.

Finlay's first outburst is pretty clear. He follows up with another something I can't quite make out ("you need glasses"?). Then, awesomely, the 4th official finishes it with; "Don't be fucking loud."

Ah, anyway. It's a nothing moment in a nothing game for Columbus, but it's funny. I tend to pick up on these things and put them in my back pocket until the time comes when you find out everybody on the team dislikes each other. Key moment, then.

Crew SC Face a Fate...

Bad starts are different than midseason slumps. Berhalter knows those types of blurry-eyed warm weather mornings of the latter. A bad start to the season is different. A bad start to your third season in charge, is different. It sticks with you. It puts you behind. You're half an hour late and at the bottom of the mountain you need to climb. Each press of the snooze button has you wondering if you can even today.

Columbus Crew SC is in a bad spot right now, but it certainly doesn't mean it's over. MLS, like most other sports in this country, are extremely forgiving. It does mean that Gregg Berhalter and team have some important decisions to make. This type of adversity is why they are here.

Should Berhalter change up his lineup? Maybe take the team out to Medieval Times for a fun dinner? It's not known what is going on inside the walls of the training facility down in Obetz or in the hearts of the players, but something is off. Something is in need of change.

The players on the pitch ("pitch") today looked absolutely spent. Anyone watching any level of sport closely knows what it looks like.

It's time for buttons to be pressed. Change it, or face a fate worse than death...

...an average MLS season.

Podcast: Red Cards in Helltown Episode XIII

00:50 HEADLINES
• Jermaine Jones "blind draw," New England got him
• Getting that +1 or +2 home game (playoffs) critical
• Guardian piece (link) on Jones
• Steve Goff and Bruce Arena interview, Washington Post (link)
• (the competitive format, MLS speed bump)

15:15 COLUMBUS CREW
• "Montreal shut them down" - Rick Gethin
• Number Nine conversation (Bedell) conversation
• Crew got out possessed in the first half
• ...more Bedell conversation, giving fair shake
• Every minute is an investment in a player
• Berhalter audio, every game is like a final, comments
• Inexperience traveling, midsummer game
• "The perfect Josh Williams game"
• Berhalter audio, individual battles
• Sharpness wasn't there

39:05 HEADLINES
• Ultimate Parity, LET'S GET TO THE RESULTS!
• LA going on a rampage since Crew
• Sporting being un-sporting
• Some Toronto comments (right before Nelsen got let go)
• Relying on a system, knowing and understanding your process
• Playoff picture, if that's your thing
• Toronto falling has created a cluster
• Colorado epic collapse
• Las Vegas expansion news (link)

• Pro radio man Larry messes up audio during live recording, blames a cat

57:20 HEADLINE(s)
• Sports Business Journal, U.S. soccer growth (link)

Predictions: Crew Rd 26, Away in Montreal

Crew travel to Stade Saputo to face Montreal Impact this evening, 7:30 PM EST.

GAME NOTES
CLB: Full travel roster (19), not always the case this year
CLB: On have one win in last 10 away (5 draw, 4 loss)
CLB: Back line questions remain, Finlay, Meram in MF form
MTL: Montreal have conceded at least 2 goals in 7 of their last 8
MTL: Outside of CCL play, season all but over for Impact
MTL: Former Crew man Dilly Duka should be in lineup tonight

GAME PREDICTIONS
Number on far left is percentage accuracy picking result. In parentheses is correct picks in last ten games.

52% (6) COLUMBUS DISPATCH ... COLUMBUS CREW
48% (4) WHOSCORED.COM ... COLUMBUS CREW
44% (5) MLSSOCCER ... DRAW
44% (5) WIN DRAW WIN ... COLUMBUS CREW
40% (4) GOAL.COM ... MONTREAL IMPACT
36% (4) BET365 ... COLUMBUS CREW
36% (4) HOME TEAM ... MONTREAL IMPACT
28% (5) TABLE POSITION ... COLUMBUS CREW
--% (-) WV HOOLIGAN ... (no pick)
--% (-) MASSIVE REPORT ... (no pick)

GAME THOUGHTS
Adam Jardy of the Columbus Dispatch writes in today's paper that it would be "shocking" if the Crew lose this one. Over at WhoScored.com, Graham Ruthven talks about the Crew going through a "mini revival." Home base hype machine MLSsoccer.com doesn't trust Columbus quite yet, somewhat surprisingly has 4 of the 6 on panel going with a draw.

Over at the betting sites we see that the Crew hold slight edge. BET365.com has home and away at 13/8 draw at 23/10. Win Draw Win your vote sections likes the Crew here, 44% of the vote (MTL 20%). Large Stake is on 0-1 Away.

Montreal's home record this year is abysmal, as is there overall, but the Crew Away record doesn't exactly sparkle either (one win in last ten). That said, seems to be little question that the Columbus Crew are favorites tonight.

The only question tonight for the Crew is how the team will approach this match tactically in the back. Even with Giancarlo Gonzalez, head coach Gregg Berhalter holds back a little bit on the road. With two big wins in as many weeks at home one wonders if he will approach this one the same way. There's no reason he shouldn't, but there is some risk there of some 'in form' role players regressing. Especially a few of the less experienced ones, as this match is on the road.

For a full preview on the match head over to Massive Report to check out Pat Murphy's conversation with Sofiane Benzaza of Mount Royal Soccer.

Weather looks agreeable, partly cloudy and in the mid to high 70s.

Predictions: Crew Rd 20, MTL at Home

Another one at Crew Stadium tonight. 7:30 PM Eastern kickoff, weather will be mid 70's, partly cloudy and a little damp.

GAME NOTES
CLB: Limited roster availability (injuries, suspensions, a rib being removed)
CLB: Higuain carrying nagging injury, not 100%
CLB: Crew one of only 4 teams with negative home goal diff, only 8 goals in 9.
MTL: Only 5 goals in 8 away this year, zero wins
MTL: Last place team
MTL: Do have 2 wins in last 6, not great but better than Crew

TEN PREDICTIONS
Number on left is percentage accuracy picking 2014 Columbus Crew results only.

58% WHOSCORED.COM ... DRAW
"This one is hard to call, with both teams coming into the game in poor form. It could be case of who isn't the worst on the day." - The Oracle (Graham Ruthven). Has this one ending even.

53% COLUMBUS DISPATCH ... COLUMBUS CREW
A lot of good Crew info in the Dispatch as of late. Gonzalez transfer news, Williams updates, pick up a paper!

47% GOAL.COM ... DRAW (for now)
No preview up yet.

42% MLSSOCCER ... COLUMBUS CREW
4 picks for the Crew this week, remaining 2 are a draw.

42% WIN DRAW WIN ... COLUMBUS CREW
Heavy Crew lean this week, 56% picked to win (12% Montreal). Large Stake is on 2-0 home win.

37% BET365 ... COLUMBUS CREW
Home team surprisingly heavy favorites today (17/20 odds, 12/5 draw, 10/3 Impact).

32% HOME TEAM ... COLUMBUS CREW

21% TABLE POSITION ... COLUMBUS CREW
Gotta be pretty low to be behind 16th place Columbus, but here we are.

--% WV HOOLIGAN ... (no picks)
Drew Epperley stopped predicting games some time ago but that shouldn't stop you from visiting his site.

--% MASSIVE REPORT ... (no pick)
Head over to Massive Report for Patrick Murphy's latest on the Columbus Crew. He's got a fair take on the current situation.

MY PREDICTION
Hard to overstate how limited the Crew are with their roster. Fully fit, this is a mid-table / average team but with Wil Trapp out (suspension), Hector Jimenez (long term injury), Josh Williams (blood clot), Jairo Arrieta (pulled muscle) and Federico Higuain not all the way back (and used in both games in past week already)... this team is in peril.

All that said, there only a couple teams that the Crew could beat in their current shape on one of them is in town today. Montreal is pretty bad this year. Not patient, not defending well, no cohesion. Just a mess, which is why you seen a heavily favored Columbus.

Pretty sure well see the Crew passing around a non-possession oriented Impact relatively easily but I think the only way this one doesn't end as draw is if we see a penalty or some other kind of mistake late in the match.

Sometimes these lower table games can surprise, though. Both teams will feel this is a good chance to get after it. Worried a little about the Crew defending without Trapp back there helping out an out of form Francis and a Chad Barson who can sometimes get beaten off the dibble (re: Marco di Vaio).

Ultimately, I hope it is a wide open game. Crew Stadium attendance is below average this year and I'm sure some of the fans want to see excitement.

Crew Rd 29, Surprised Impact

Federico Higuain and Chad Marshall the difference as the Crew catch a busy Impact in Montreal.

1ST HALF
The flow of the game favored Montreal for large spells of the first half with the Crew not really looking up to playing at full speed. Overall, the play and intensity on the pitch came nowhere close the the energy of the Stade Saputo crowd.

The headed goal in the 23rd minute by Marco Di Viao was fitting in the way it was scored as the ball floated past a number of Crew players to an awaiting Di Viao who put away a simple header.

The Crew would up the energy for a couple minutes after that but it was short lived. The game returned to it's original state.

2ND HALF
Another slow start to this one and little adjustments to either side for the first 20 minutes.

It wasn't until Chad Marshall awoke from a seemingly three year slumber to bury a set piece delivery from Federico Higuain. The goal was as satisfying as it was executed.

Marshall's goal spurred on the Crew to an eventual goal where Higuain teased away possession from a sloppy Impact. Higuain would find Dominic Oduro's run for a goal that put the visitors up 1:2.

From there the Crew were able to hold of Montreal for the rest of the match.

GAME THOUGHTS
This win will certainly be an important one for interim head coach Brian Bliss. His adjustment to add Ethan Finlay (for Jairo Arrieta) to bolster the middle Oduro up top paid off immediately. In some ways it was like adding an extra player to the midfield because it pushed Oduro into a position up top that he is more comfortable with.

Very well worked by Brian Bliss.

Montreal is right on the inner edge of an extremely busy month. Actually, it's one of the busiest months a MLS team will have to play this year (no preferred scheduling for CCL like Seattle got early in year) and will likely stretch their very consistent lineup.

Sat, Sept 14 : vs Crew
Tue, Sept 17 : San Jose Earthquakes (Away)
Sat, Sept 21 : Vancouver (Home)
Tue, Sept 24 : Heredia (Home)
Sat, Sept 28 : Chicago (Away)

Hard to say that the either team outplayed the other. Montreal had the edge most of it, you could say, but the Crew snapped together after the Marshall goal and played with purpose.

The Crew host Chicago this weekend.

Only five games left on the season before what will likely be a busy offseason.

Predictions: Crew (A) v Impact

Good Morning,

The Columbus Crew take on the Montreal Impact in an early afternoon MLS fixture today. Temps up in Montreal don't appear to be making it out of the low 60s so this game could have good pace to it. 2:00 PM EST Kickoff time.

GAME NOTES
-CLB: Injuries up and down roster, Defense is concern
-CLB: Higuain not listed in projected lineup
-CLB: On longest road losing streak in team history
-MTL: Currently 2nd in MLS (ppg). Looking to keep Shield pace
-MTL: Crowded upcoming schedule
-MTL: Di Viao brace in 3 of last 4 games

----------
PREDICTIONS
(in no particular order)

1. GOAL.COM ... MONTREAL
"The top team in the Eastern Conference will look to secure its footing against the desperate visitors from Columbus," says Thomas Floyd's headline today. Readers predictions on this site also like Montreal this week (67%).

2. TABLE POSITION ... MONTREAL

3. COLUMBUS DISPATCH ... MONTREAL
On the pulse and on the beat is Adam Jardy. After noting long list of injuries and probable absence of Federico Higuain, he says "...on the road against a team chasing the Supporter's Shield does not add up to a promising afternoon."

4. MLSSOCCER.COM ... MONTREAL
The 'pick 'em' group over there like the Impact across the board today. Matthew Doyle still holding at 50% accuracy (very good) with Nick Rosano nipping at his heals (48% accuracy).

5. BET365 ... MONTREAL
Looking like we are getting standard late season odds here for the Impact (4/7). Draw is sitting at 14/5 and Crew 5/1.

6. HOME TEAM ... MONTREAL
I list home team because it is one of the strongest predictors this season. Only one MLS team has a positive Goal Differential on the road this year.

7. WVHOOLIGAN.COM ... MONTREAL
Mr. Drew Epperley: "If anything, this may really knock the Crew out of the playoff range for good." He likes the Impact to win this one by two goals 3-1.

8. MASSIVE REPORT ...
Managing Editor, Patrick Guldan; "Montreal's movement causes problems with unschooled pairings and the Crew defense won't have had many practices together as a unit." Patrick see's this one as a 1-2 Impact win.

9. WHOSCORED.COM ... MONTREAL
Graham Ruthven see's this on as a 1-0 Home side win and states, "The Impact appear to have focused their minds and are favourites to take all three points against the Crew."

10. WINDRAWWIN.COM ... MONTREAL
Last, but not least, is the betting aggregate site and the now near legendary 'your vote' predictor. 56% like the Impact, 12% Crew. Wise guys seem to be making a stake on 3-0 win this week as well.

----------
MY THINKINGS, PREDICTION
The Crew have been miserable on the road this year. In fact, the current seven game road losing streak is the longest in franchise history.

Conqueror of MLS

The way I'm choosing to view this one is as a great test for interim head man Brian Bliss. He's the guy that assembled this group and now he's had his hands on these guys for a good couple weeks. Short, yes. But meaningful. It's not like he dropped in from outer space. He knows this squad very well and they know him.

A good showing here and the Crew can mark this down as the best win of the season.

An outright loss, however, could damage this opportunity for Bliss. Injuries have certainly run rampant of late but this team was build by Bliss to be this young. It was something the organization touted early in the year as part of the plan.

What we are seeing with this team, this year, is the result of building such a young team (and local Ohioans). Historically poor on the road. The experience just isn't there.

With Higuain likely not getting out there, Josh Williams out, Chad Marshall banged up this one has the opportunity to turn messy very, very quickly.

Of note: Since the only Spanish speaking coach (Iribarren) was let go the Crew haven't fielded non-English speakers (Viana, Higuain, Sanchez). This could be circumstance over anything but it is interesting and noteworthy.

Again, very tall odds but real opportunity for Brian Bliss to put a feather in his cap tonight.

Enjoy the game.

Predictions: Crew v. Impact

Columbus is in snowy Montreal for a match to be played this weekend. Originally scheduled for 2 PM, Saturday April 13th but has been moved to Sunday April 14th, noon kickoff.

GAME NOTES
- Adding an extra day to travel can mean 'bad travel'.
- Some reports have Higuain as 'questionable', he did travel.
- Montreal beat the Crew in a preseason tournament championship 1:0 and looked good doing it.
- Justin Meram, Eric Gehrig did not travel.
- Impact head coach Marco Schallibaum is serving the last game of his suspension.

PREDICTIONS
Starting off with MLS soccer dot com because they got the Crew game very wrong last week.

Editor, Andrew Wiebe is at 31% accurate right now (basically as good as random selection). Further note; Matt Doyle, Armchair Analyst is at 51% accurate. A comment under the predictions calls out Mr. Doyle's affinity for Home teams. Nothing wrong with picking them. As discussed here last year after going over best predictors. Picking Home team to win gets you over half right. Picking Draw when top half club visits bottom takes you over the rainbow.

Anyhow. This MLS group favors Montreal by a vote of 4 for win and 2 pick draw.

WV Hooligan, Drew Epperley, likes Montreal here: "...the game will have one goal and the home side will end up with it."

Bet365 is leaning heavily towards Montreal, almost evens at 21/20 for them to win. Draw at 9/4, Crew 11/4. Lines could change due to postponement of match. Moving the time back also allows more information about injuries to leak out.

Win Draw Win's reliable 'fan vote' gives slight edge to Montreal, 37% to win, 34% draw. Actually, very close there and only a small stake on 1:0 Impact win.

Goal.com fan predictor is very heavy Montreal, 75% picked to win.

----------
MY THOUGHTS
The thing everyone thought would happen, is happening. Friction about lineup changes. Remarkably, the Crew have only had 12 different players start but the decision to sit Jairo Arrieta last match has caused some problems within the club (read more Warzycha's bizarre explanation at Massive Report).

Along with the fresh new crack within the club you have bad travel because of the game's postponement AND opening match outside for the Impact. This can wreak havoc on a club that has cracks. Not just between players/coaches but player groups/cliques.

A Crew win, even a draw, will take monumental effort and concentration.

Recap: Crew Game 2, Montreal 0

Columbus looked improved over their week one performance yesterday. It is a sure bet that, like me, most of the 18,000 on hand were happy with the attacking formation Coach Warzycha employed.

Opening home game vibes and good, fast paced, soccer by both sides.

EARLY RED CARD

That lively play came to a screeching halt in the 16th minute as Montreal’s Jeb Brovsky elbowed the back of Milovan Mirosevic’s head. It was an aggressive challenge by Brovsky and looked incredibly violent from my vantage point. Replays show that he didn’t keep his arm straight and led with a bent elbow. It’s always unfortunate when a red comes out early. The game suffers and the official is usually left chasing the rest of the game.

MONTREAL PRESSING FOR GOAL

Montreal went on the attack searching for a quick goal after the Red was issued, undoubtedly so they could spend the remainder of the game bunkered. The plan almost worked as they were able to easily find holes in the Crew defensive third on a number of counters and breaks. That Montreal pressure shows itself the stat line; 17 shots (6 on target). Most of shots coming after going a man down must be slightly concerning for the Crew coaching staff.

PENALTY 1-0 CREW

15 minutes after the player ejection, Renteria was taken down in the box. Mirosevic finished off the penalty kick well and put the Crew up (reminder: Columbus led the league and set a club record in PKs with 9 last year).

66th MINUTE 2-0 CREW

Shaun Francis whipped a beautiful cross in from the left that Olman Vargas finished with a darting header. Impressive Goal.


GAME OVER, NOTES

Bernardo Anor had a stand out game. Andy Gruenebaum had one of the better goal keeping performances I’ve seen from the Crew in the past two years. Mirosevic also had a good game. Taking the ball away from Montreal players almost looked too easy for him.

Danny O’Rourke, Shaun Francis and even Miranda looked a little shaky in the back but they haven’t played much together. It’s worth mentioning again… Gruenebaum saved the day.

For Montreal, Justin Mapp. The guy was clearly one of the best on the field yesterday. Mapp sent in a handful of great crosses that might have changed the game had Crew GK not been in top form. Mapp also had one go off the crossbar in the first half.

Early Red Cards drop stink bombs on games and they seem to be all too common in MLS. However, that is the game to be played in these parts.

The Crew garnished all 3 points from an aggressive and feisty Montreal. That's all that is asked. On to next week.