Thursday, December 30, 2021

TV Soccer Viewership: Dec 21-27

Christmas week on US cable means that the Premier League has the stage to themselves. Unfortunately, the latest form of COVID has led to a handful of cancellations for the league. A total of three Boxing Day games have been rescheduled bringing the yearly total to 15 on the 2021-2022 season.

Games were played, however. Let's take a look.

1. The NBC game on broadcast TV between Chelsea and Aston Villa averaged 630k viewers. It's a good number but lower than previous Boxing Day games. There were two last season - 799k Spurs v Norwich and 778k Man United v Burnley. Going back to 2019, the Chelsea v Arsenal match pulled 1.16m.

2. I'm including American Kennel Club Premier Cup viewership for the dog show rating followers out there. These events tend to do just as well as "third tier" sports like MLS, WNBA.

3. One more week before Liga MX returns. 

4. Concacaf Champions League Returns Feb. 15th.

5. And, we are two months from MLS 2022 kicking off.

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US Cable Viewership: Soccer Programs Dec 21-27
Viewers (000)Event/GameNetworkDate
461PREMIER LEAGUE L: MAN UNITED/NEWCASTLEUSA12/27
352AKC PREMIER CUP: AKC FASTEST DOGS USAESPN212/25
336PREMIER LG LIVE STUDIONBCSN12/26
315AKC PREMIER CUPESPN212/25
314PREMIER LEAGUE L: PALACE/TOTTENHAMUSA12/26
283PREMIER LEAGUE L: SOUTHAMPTON/WEST HAMNBCSN12/26
239PREMIER LG LIVE STUDIOUSA12/27
236PREMIER LEAGUE L: BRENTFORD/BRIGHTONNBCSN12/26
156PREMIER LEAGUE GOAL ZONEUSA12/27
147PREMIER LG LIVE STUDIONBCSN12/26
97PREMIER LEAGUE GOAL ZONENBCSN12/26
62MEN IN BLAZERSNBCSN12/26
39LIGA-PREM-SUN-TEL-UNVSO: AVILLA V CHELSEAUNIVERSO12/26
31LIGA-PREM-SUN-TEL-UNVSO: TOTT V PALACEUNIVERSO12/26

sources: showbuzzdaily, spoilertv, helltown

Wednesday, December 29, 2021

Will MLS v Liga MX Work (on TV)

It was announced earlier this year by Don Garber that MLS and Liga MX will play a "March Madness" like tournament starting in 2023. The hope (for MLS) is obvious - add something interesting to the TV package that is currently being negotiated. 

At least that is the way it is sold. In reality, MLS is trying to fill a gap in their bundle because the US National Teams are now being sold separately.

So, is there any evidence that this new bloated Leagues Cup will be able to move the needle in regards to viewership and fill the hole left behind by the National Teams (Men and Women)? 

It turns out that there is already a de facto version of this tournament in the CONCACAF Champions League. Adding fuel to this, MLS and Liga MX now skip the early rounds so they play now more than ever.

To answer the question of how well this team-up between leagues might do, I simply gathered the ratings from events that MLS and Liga MX already play in.

Where I got my TV ratings:
Leagues Cup (current form, 7 games)
Concacaf Champions League (29 games)
Campeones Cup (1 game)

37 games are enough to draw some pretty good conclusions. 

"AVG 1" is Major League Soccer's season average.
"AVG 2" is the average of the CCL, Leagues Cup, Campeones Cup

NetworkAVG 1AVG 2Change
FS1/214857-91
ESPN214296-46
TUDN41187146

The first thing that stands out to me is that it appears as if English-speaking fans aren't interested in MLS v. Liga MX (or v. any other league), while Spanish-speaking fans are much more interested in MLS games that involve Liga MX teams. 

When looking at it this way, there isn't much incentive for English-speaking networks to really consider the new Leagues Cup in 2023 as anything more than just more content (at best).

However, there is the potential of this tournament pulling a couple good numbers towards the final. Why do I say that? Here are the top 10 games when looking at these competitions.

Top 10 Liga MX / MLS matches in 2021
000sTeam 1Team 2Event
537PortlandvAméricaCCL
522AméricavPortlandCCL
497MonterreyvAméricaCCL
352Seattle Sounders FCvLeónLeagues Cup
351OlimpiavAméricaCCL
342Seattle Sounders FCvUANLLeagues Cup
333AméricavPhiladelphiaCCL
327TorontovCruz AzulCCL
324Cruz AzulvTorontoCCL

Club America is a big driver of good ratings. 

Something you don't see high up the viewership list are games that will feature in the expanded Leagues Cup - MLS v MLS or Liga MX v Liga MX. Another thing to consider is that a large majority of these games will not be the best/popular teams. 

For example, nobody watched the ESPN2 airing of the Columbus v Cruz Azul Campeones Cup match - which means it didn't finish in the top 150 programs on the day. 200k turned out on TUDN. Columbus also failed to register a number in the CCL both legs on FS2 when they played Monterrey. Philly also failed to pull a number on FS1 for its matchup against America (that pulled 333k on TUDN).

LAST THOUGHT

Outside of simple logistical problems in setting up this tournament (getting all the Liga MX teams on board, how to distribute money, where games will be played, figuring out something for teams to do when they are knocked out early, pausing the MLS season for a month and then also another three weeks during Gold Cup and World Cup years, etc...), I don't think it's a very good replacement/add-on to a TV bundle for MLS.

Generally speaking, USMNT and USWNT average in the 250-300k viewership range on English-speaking networks (not including World Cup Qualifiers), so I don't think there is enough in the proposed "March Madness" event between MLS and Liga MX to fill the gap. 

English-speaking interest isn't there. If you pull out ESPN/2 and FS1/2 the average rating is a measly 65k average. A total of 11 out of 24 games in these tournaments didn't even pull a number. 

Finally, MLS is already struggling with TV ratings. The front half of their season is where they usually make hay before the NFL and the rest force MLS to the back burner. It doesn't make sense to chop up the season (and current CCL, which will look redundant) because it will devalue the regular season even more than it is.

Tuesday, December 28, 2021

Locking In '21 MLS TV Numbers

Here are my final viewership numbers for Major League Soccer's 2021 season.

TABLE 1 - Viewership
NetworkMedianAvg
FOX486594
ABC443555
ESPN256258
FS1159148
ESPN2135142
TUDN-41
FOXD-24
ESPND-14

• These numbers use count events falling out of the top 150 cable programs on the day as "0" (zero). The rating on those events is generally below a 0.01 rating, which statistically speaking, means nobody is watching. Networks impacted by this are FS1, TUDN, FOX Deportes, and ESPN Deportes. 

• I do not have a second source for Univision (/UniMas) daily TV numbers. To my knowledge, they are not metered by Neilsen. When I do have a reliable source, I will add them to my reporting.

• FOX SPORTS 1 had five games with "0." All of them occurred at the start of College Football and the NFL (August 21 - September 29). One match (NYRB v NYC) was postponed and the move to date of the match didn't get a rating. Another - Atlanta FC v Miami CF - was bumped off its scheduled time on FS1 in favor of another event. The others, Austin v Dallas, Atlanta FC v Orlando City, Miami CF v NYRB just didn't register a number.

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TABLE 2 - Viewership
TypeMedianAvg
ALL Networks160217
Cable Only116130
English Only214278
Spanish Only-42

Table 2 breaks out English and Spanish Language TV.

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TABLE 3 - Top Games (no Thanksgiving Day Game or Cup Final)
(000s)MatchNetworksDate
721FC Cincinnati – Inter Miami CFFOX, FOXD5/16
695LA Galaxy – Los Angeles FCFOX, FOXD5/8
620Portland Timbers – Seattle SoundersABC, ESPND5/9
557Inter Miami CF – Atlanta UnitedABC, ESPND5/9
557Inter Miami CF – LA GalaxyABC, ESPND4/18
546Atlanta United – Philadelphia UnionESPN, ESPND6/20
512Portland Timbers – LA GalaxyABC, ESPND5/22
504Los Angeles FC – LA GalaxyFOX, FOXD8/28
498Los Angeles FC – Seattle SoundersESPN, ESPND4/24
485Los Angeles FC – Austin FCFOX, FOXD4/17

Table 3 does not include the Thanksgiving Day or MLS Cup Final figures, which are more or less outliers. The Thanksgiving Day game had a massive lead-in and the MLS Cup is a one-off event. Looking at it this gives us a better snapshot of which teams do well and when.

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General Callouts:

• Using the Median number is a personal preference. MLS can be pretty extreme in regards to viewership (0 - 1.8m), so it helps to look at the middle number.

• I used the announced MLS calendar at the start of the season as a starting point. From there I went week to week on Major League Soccer's own site to verify info (the list the networks for each game).

• Spanish Language: When a match is shown in both English and Spanish, the Spanish number (avg) is about half (19k) of the Spanish only (42k). 

• Only about a quarter of the games broadcast in Spanish Language pull a measurable number.

• 5 of the to 10 games with the most viewers this year were broadcast in both languages.

• I don't have any FOX Deportes games that were simulcast on FS1 finishing in the top 150 cable shows on their day. The only time FOXD records a number is when it is on OTA FOX.

• Big markets support the "broadcast" / OTA MLS games. Miami, LA (both), and Atlanta dominate traditional broadcast numbers. Interestingly, Miami and to a lesser degree, Atlanta do not do well on cable.

• All-Star game viewership is not included. It pulled 366k on TUDN and a surprisingly low 175k on FS1.

• There are reports of MLS averaging around 285k across networks this year which I guess is possible if you add in Univision data. Without it, I can confidently say it is 217k.

IMPORTANT LAST NOTE

I record these numbers on a daily basis and it's not just MLS. I record all cable data. Categorization is done manually, so there is an error % to my numbers (human), but I would say that it's less than 5% when looking at a full year's worth of data.

Wednesday, December 22, 2021

TV Soccer Viewership: Dec 14-20

1. The Arsenal v Leeds match on NBC was the big match of last week with 800k, 0.50 rating on NBC.

2. Both Liga MX and MLS are done for the year. Liga MX's Clausura starts January 6th. We don't see MLS return for another 2 months (Feb 26).

2a. MLS seems eager to move the season to an earlier start. It's easy to see why. The Premier League and Liga MX get to play of almost 12 weeks with no MLS competition for viewers.

3. Liga MX Femenil final pulled 102k on Fox Deportes, another solid number on US cable TV.

4. Without Liga MX on TUDN, Spanish viewers appear to have moved slightly to watching Premier League games on Universo. Three games on the network popped on to the top 150 cable shows on their day.

5. Major League Soccer 2021 is over. There were lots of narratives floating around last week on how well they did vs previous years. For me, MLS's drop-off this past fall was notable. Here are YOY numbers for MLS September - December on three cable networks.

MLS September - December YOY
Network2020 Avg2021 Avg% Change
ESPN284176-38%
FS1158155-2%
TUDN11191-18%

FS1 and TUDN do not include games falling outside the top 150 cable shows on the day.

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US Cable Viewership: Soccer Programs Dec 14-20
Viewers (000)Event/GameNetworkDate
337PREMIER LEAGUE L: CHELSEA/WOLVESUSA12/19
286PREMIER LEAGUE L: WEST HAM/ARSENALNBCSN12/15
255PREMIER LG LIVE STUDIONBCSN12/19
216INTERNATIONAL FRIENDLY L: USA/BOSNIAFS112/18
215PREMIER LEAGUE L: MAN CITY/NEWCASTLENBCSN12/19
209PREMIER LEAGUE L: EVERTON/CHELSEANBCSN12/16
169PREMIER LEAGUE L: LEEDS/MANCHESTER CITYNBCSN12/14
151PREMIER LG LIVE STUDIONBCSN12/18
116PREMIER LEAGUE GOAL ZONENBCSN12/15
106SELECCION NA?L EE.UU. SAT: USA / BOSNIATUDN12/18
104PREMIER LEAGUE GOAL ZONENBCSN12/16
102LIGA MX FEMENIL: FNL:MONTERREY VS TIGRESFOX DEP12/17
95PREMIER LG LIVE STUDIONBCSN12/18
69MEN IN BLAZERSNBCSN12/16
64PREMIER LEAGUE GOAL ZONENBCSN12/14
58LIGA PREMIER: LEEDS UNITED VS ARSENALUNIVERSO12/18
55LIGA PREMIER: WOLVERHAMPTON VS CHELSEAUNIVERSO12/19
42PREMIER LG LIVE STUDIONBCSN12/19
37LIGA PREMIER RR: NEWCASTLE VS MAN CITYUNIVERSO12/19

sources: showbuzzdaily, spoilertv, helltown

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