What We Could Have Been

What We Could Have Been

by: Vidda Grubin

 Are there still soccer fans in North America who believe in McFranchise League Soccer?

Seriously?!? Who are the mouth breathers hanging out in stadiums and jersey/scarf adorned soccer dens watching the latest rich guy, marketing genius version of…

WE (a handful of greedy, ego-maniacs) TOOK OVER YOUR (generational & wide-eyed newbie soccer players, fans, parents, kids, coaches, referees) GROWING AND BEAUTIFUL SPORT AT THE PRECISE MOMENT WE REALIZED IT (soccer in North America) WAS ON THE VERGE OF ORGANICALLY, FROM THE ROOTS UP, BECOMING A BEHEMOTH POPULATED BY HUNDREDS/THOUSANDS OF UNIQUE CLUBS SUPPORTED BY MILLIONS OF PASSIONATE PARTICIPANTS AND SUPPORTERS.

WE (a handful of greedy ego-maniacs) HAVE OVERSEEN THE REVERSAL OF GRASS-ROOTS TRENDS, A REDUCTION IN YOUTH PARTICIPATION, THE CHOKING-OFF (soccer don’s version of erotic asphyxiation) OF WHAT SO OBVIOUSLY WOULD HAVE BECOME, IN TIME, A NORTH AMERICA-WIDE MULTI-TIERED OPEN PYRAMID OF AMATEUR AND PROFESSIONAL SOCCER CLUBS, THEIR PLAYERS AND FANS COMPETING YEAR ROUND FOR GLORY AND THE DREAM OF GREATNESS BASED ON SUCCESS ON THE FIELD, BETWEEN THE LINES.

As all of us (soccer fans here in North America) recently watched millions of UK and European football fans tell their greedy, egotistical owners to fuck-all-the-way-off to Toledo and then to fuck-off more to the left or right, depending on your travel direction, and jump the fuck into Lake Fucking Erie, some of us (soccer fans here in North America) continue to swallow the impotent ejaculate of well paid marketing pricks and red-haired, goatee wearing McFranchise lackeys.

I miss my sport. I miss the beautiful game and what it was quickly becoming in North America: millions of us as the creators of thousands of unique clubs in competition, but as one, united in the energy, beauty and unfolding mystery of shared glory and agony every Saturday afternoon.

I would gladly trade the last 25 years and McFranchise soccer for the promise of what we were quickly becoming not long ago. 

Crew Net Promoter Scores

Following up on yesterday's player ratings/evaluations (via WhoScored) we have my Net Promoter Scores (NPS). I used it last year and it told a good story. NPS is a measurement often used in retail environments. It's where you only look at bad customer reviews and the good while throwing out the middle bunch. It's very effective at getting you where you want to be and prevents you from wasting your time on meaningless things.

I've used it a few times over the years. Last year you can find it HERE. 

For WhoScored ratings, I use <6.00 as a BAD GAME. and >7.00 as a GOOD GAME. The basic math is 

BAD GAME / TOTAL GAMES = % BAD

GOOD GAME / TOTAL GAMES = % GOOD

% BAD - % GOOD = NPS

What that gives you a score between -100 and +100. In retail environments you want things to be +80. For the way I'm using it here, +50 or so is good enough.

+67% Lucas Zelar
+64% Darlington
+59% Pedro Santo
+50% Harrison Af
+50% Derrick Eti
+50% Héctor Jimé
+50% Vito Wormgo

+44% Gyasi Zarde
+41% Artur
+40% Aboubacar K
+33% Sebastian B
+30% Josh Willia
+29% Milton Vale
+28% Jonathan Me
+27% Eloy Room
+25% Luis Díaz
+18% Youness Mok

0% Chris Cadde
0% Aidan Morri
0% Fanendo Adi
0% Emmanuel Bo

-17% Andrew Tarb
-25% Fatai Alash

This is quite an improvement over last year where there were TEN players in the negative. None of the outfield players here are still with the team (GK's score a bit lower in general).

-11% : Alex Crogna : 9

-11% : Justin Mera : 9

-27% : David Guzmá : 11

-29% : Eduardo Sos : 7

-29% : J.J. Willia : 7

-33% : Patrick Mul : 9

-40% : Eloy Room : 5

-44% : Niko Hansen : 9

-50% : Joe Bendik : 6

-67% : Jon Kempin : 3

FC Dallas is Covid Central

Buzz Carrick over at 3rd Degree has been closely covering the mini outbreak of COVID-19 within the FC Dallas team. Here's how he has the timeline of events: 

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June 3 – One player tests positive, the 2nd case in MLS. (Reported by MLS)

June 18-19 – Two more cases while still in Frisco. A 4th suspected case turns out to be some other “old school” illness. One of the two players who tested positive was cleared to return to training and the other did not travel.

June 27 – FCD travels to and arrives in Orlando.

June 28 – FCD holds its first training session and has two positive tests.

June 29 – FCD has one more positive test.

June 30 – FCD has three more positive tests.

July 1 – FCD has four more positive tests: three players and one staffer.

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This sequence of events has Kevin Baxter of the LA Times stating that the "MLS is Back" tournament could be in jeopardy.

The NWSL got underway with one team (The Orlando Pride, ironically enough) not making the trip to the tournament. It's possible that MLS could do the same with FC Dallas, but I doubt they are able to pull it off. The complexity of rescheduling a league of just a handful of teams like the NWSL is completely different than a league of 26. MLS has also assigned value to the group stage games, as they count towards the regular-season standings.

All over the league we see some teams delaying their flights a bit, so I suspect that they might be waiting on more information from MLS offices on a way to move forward. Several of these tests came back positive after the players arrived, and were living in, the Orlando Bubble.

In future reporting, The USA Today stated that all players and staff on FC Dallas tested negative before arriving to Orlando. I don't think you can all the sudden get sick over the course of a short flight. What this says to me is that either MLS didn't test or they thought they wouldn't really get tested in Orlando.

It's important to note that most MLS teams do not have the kind of press coverage that 3rd Degree provides in Dallas. Even if players or staff of most teams test positive, there's nobody asking.

Florida Covid Increase, Does MLS have a Problem?

CNN, NY Post, Vox, The Miami Herald, Orlando Sentinel, Newsweek, CBS are news outlets that have fresh pieces up on the recent spike in new coronavirus cases in Florida this morning.

Looking at the numbers, it is true. Florida is spiking in new cases, but they are also testing a lot more people. This suggests that the state wants to know if reopening is an okay thing to do. That's good! It also suggests that either more people have always had the virus, they just weren't tested or Florida is in some deep dog do-do.

I've been closely monitoring both Ohio and Virginia since the outbreak, with a focus on deaths. Why that measurement? The one the people say has too much lag? Because I feel that when that figure rests at a very low number for 2+ weeks after re-opening then it may be possible to breathe a little. Both VA and Ohio appear to be close to the other side in that metric.

Early indicators of a new spread show up in other places. Raw new case numbers are a red flag, but more importantly % of new tests that are positive. All three, OH-VA-FL, appear to still be in a decent place with that. All clocking in at or around 5%.

That said, Florida is seeing a % increase alongside its recent increase in testing per day. Over the last few weeks, Virginia and Ohio have been testing around 10k a day. Florida, on the other hand, is testing 30k. Bigger state, more tests, yes. But if you look closely at my chart and the blue Florida line, you'll see it marching up a bit above where it has been.

IMPACT TO COVID CUP

Major League Soccer plans to kick off their Orlando, FL tournament in a couple weeks. With Florida cases on the rise, they might run into some friction. Not only with the general rise in cases, but with the optics of opening among a "second wave."

This might also alert the player's union and possibly cause some players to force their way out of playing (something we are seeing in the NBA). So, it could get messy. Especially if the long-feared second virus wave is matched with new positive tests and reported deaths across the country.

MLS, Union agree to return

After weeks of back and forth that increased with intensity (including a lockout threat) as time passed, Major League Soccer and the Players Association (Union) finally came to an agreement to return to play at some point in the near future.

THE ORLANDO PROJECT

The plan for return to play is one they have been leaking since the height of the pandemic - an Orlando tournament, of sorts, that has a World Cup feel (maybe?). Group stages with knockout stages. It makes sense since they will have to fit it in a small timeframe of 4-6 weeks with the hope being that after it is over things around the country (and Canada) will have returned to "normal" enough to play in home cities.

Here are a few bullet points: 

1. It will be at the ESPN Wide World of Sports complex. I've been twice for MLS preseason, it's a neat place. Lots of fields, soccer, baseball, and an indoor center for basketball as well as cheerleading events (which I witnessed, crazy).

2. Teams will / are training in their home cities and will travel down to Orlando shortly before games begin. 

3. Games are not scheduled yet, but multiple news outlets are reporting that games will begin in early July.

4. There will be no fans.

5. Games will somehow count towards the regular season.

Don Garber is hellbent on getting MLS back on the pitch before the other major men's pro team sports get going. So far, it looks like he will get that, but he has missed the target on returning to play before the other major soccer leagues in Europe and will be a step behind the NWSL, who restart June 27 in Salt Lake City.

Soccer League Return Dates:

NOW: Germany is playing

June 11: Spain

June 17: England (Premier League)

June 20: Italy, English Championship

June 27: NWSL

There is some uncertainty around League 1 and 2 in England restarting at all.

MLS V. UNION

Don Garber made it clear that negotiations were intense, which should come as no surprise when you consider the backdrop of national protests and pandemic. It got so heated that Garber threatened to lock out the players.

Ultimately it took a 5% player pay cut as well as some delay in the implementation of the latest CBA (pushed back to next season). MLS will also mortgage the future a bit by lowering media payouts to players over the next few years.

SOME THOUGHTS

MLS really, really, REALLY wants to fill up an ESPN schedule with live sports content before the big boys get back going. The massive success of the Jordan documentary that pulled down NBA, MLB playoff figures, has sports executives salivating at a perceived pent up demand. That said, there does appear to be a few cracks in that argument as ratings on sports already going (motorsports, Bundesliga) have started to level off.

Nobody really knows how ratings will be, however. I think MLS is really trying to cram this event in and there's nothing in the league's history that tells me they can pull this off smoothly. 

Even with ESPN's hand-holding, I think this event will end up costing the league. Not just financially, but in respect as well. It will be nice to see teams playing again, but it will look like an amateur production. No crowds and really low camera angles. The players will also be out of practice and shape and let's not forget - it will be ORLANDO IN JULY. Games will grind to a sweltering halt in the second half. 

Garber Memo about leaks... leaks

The Athletic has been reporting on a steady stream of COVID-19 MLS items in great detail over the last few weeks. From plans to play a tournament (and how) in Orlando to negotiations with the MLSPA - it's all there.

Well, as it turns out, MLS is not directly providing that information like they normally do to get attention. All this information has been leaking out to the press without the authorization of the league and Don Garber appears livid about it.

Last Friday Garber sent a memo (which itself leaked to The Athletic) out to the league that threatened termination and fines up to $1 million dollars for anyone leaking information. Later in the memo it states that Garber has hired an investigative firm to figure out who is leaking information.

Two of the writers at the Athletic have very close ties with MLS. One of them even worked and wrote for MLSSoccer.com. My hunch is that they don't have to go asking for this information, close friends that are likely irritated with plans in Orlando, as well as the proposed and current wages cuts, are passing it along.

MLS ON THE EDGE

Garber added that the leaks could “severely imperil the future of our League.” 

As soon as it became clear that this pandemic lockdown was going to last longer than a couple weeks, I came to the conclusion that MLS was likely going to be in some financial trouble. Gameday revenues are the lifeblood of the league as TV deals still have yet to be more than a small fraction of what others get.

Garber's fury at the leaks is a sign that MLS was likely working out something with ESPN and Disney independent of what the NBA is working on (they want the same thing in Orlando). Not so much a competition, but I think MLS was trying to have a more achievable plan than the NBA. Interestingly, the NBA released a very similar plan within a day of the MLS leak.

With large organizations, the top decisionmakers often don't get the details on their desk until it's polished. They are too busy or don't give two shits what underlings are working on. Now that all the information is out there, everyone at ESPN has a chance to evaluate it and give their two cents (ie. kill it) before it has been completely hashed out. This MLS idea in particular looks far from a finished product.

A basic way to imagine the impact is to think of it as a superhero movie that has a lot of leaks. Or the recent video game leak with the Last of Us 2. In my own career, I've had multiple projects torpedoed before all the kinks were worked out. This happens often with ideas that appear abstract to non-stakeholders.

Once it's out there, EVERYONE will poke holes it in and or steal it. Intellectual property should be guarded well.

It wasn't here with MLS, and they will be paying a huge price.

MLS Suspends Season

I'll have more thoughts on this soon, but this should get it's own post. MLS is suspending the season for 30 days. It's interesting that they put a timeframe on it, but anyhow:

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Major League Soccer has suspended all games, effective immediately, for 30 days, the league announced Thursday as it continues to assess the impact of COVID-19 (the coronavirus).

Read the full statement:

Major League Soccer has suspended match play for 30 days, effective immediately, as the league continues to assess the impact of COVID-19 with its medical task force and public health officials. 

At the appropriate time, the league and clubs will communicate plans for the continuation of the 2020 season and update the status of league events. 

“Our clubs were united today in the decision to temporarily suspend our season – based on the advice and guidance from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), Public Health Agency of Canada (PHAC), and other public health authorities, and in the best interest of our fans, players, officials and employees,” said MLS Commissioner Don Garber. “We’d like to thank our fans for their continued support during this challenging time.”

The MLS announcement comes in the wake of the NBA suspending its season on Wednesday night. Prior to the suspension of the MLS season, two MLS matches scheduled for March 21 had already been postponed in Seattle and San Jose as measures are taken to contain COVID-19, which to date has seen over 1,000 confirmed cases in the U.S.

Earlier this week, eMLS Cup, which was scheduled to take place on March 21 in Austin, was postponed following the cancelation of South by Southwest.

Top Center Backs in MLS

[Season start - July 26, 2019 - I round ages]

Here are the best Center Backs in MLS based on my own Helltown player ratings and WhoScored (average rank between the two systems).

	Name(2)	BIRTHPLACE	Team	Age	Salary
1	Walker Zimmerman	Lawrenceville, Georgia	LAF	26	$600,000
2	Miles Robinson	Arlington, Massachusetts	ATL	22	$201,250
3	Maxime Chanot	Nancy, France	NYCFC	30	$650,000
4	Ike Opara	Durham, North Carolina	MIN	30	$367,917
5	Daniel Steres	Burbank, California	LAG	29	$155,500
6	Leandro González Pírez	Buenos Aires, Argentina	ATL	27	$810,008
7	Jack Elliott	London, England	PHI	24	$265,000
8	Auston Trusty	Media, Pennsylvania	PHI	21	$124,100
9	Steve Birnbaum	Newport, California	DC	29	$550,000
10	Frederic Brillant	Sedan, France	DC	34	$300,000
11	Florian Jungwirth	Grafelfing, West Germany	SJE	31	$616,675
12	Diego Polenta	Montevideo, Uruguay	LAG	28	$777,276
13	Eddie Segura	Pereira, Colombia	LAF	23	$212,000
14	Matt Hedges	Rochester, New York	FCD	29	$575,008
15	Bastian Schweinsteiger	Kolbermoor, West Germany	CHI	35	$5,600,000
16	James Sands	Rye, New York	NYCFC	19	$105,000
17	Amro Tarek	Los Angeles, California	NYR	27	$156,250
18	Keegan Rosenberry	Harrisburg, Pennsylvania	COL	26	$164,945
19	Alex Callens	Callao, Peru	NYCFC	27	$664,000
20	Michael Boxall	Auckland, New Zealand	MIN	31	$317,333

28: Median Age of top 20 CBs in MLS
$342k: Median Salary of top 20 CBs in MLS

CALL OUTS

Walker Zimmerman, 26, LAFC
In the right place at the right time in his career. I'm not sure if I see him making a big move overseas at this point, but he'll likely be winning a few trophies.

Maynor Figueroa, 36, HOU (ranked 25, not listed):
He has been in MLS since 2015 (FC Dallas, Houston) and is a steal, at least according to published wage data. WhoScored doesn't necessarily rate him (they love lots of activity, something CBs don't have as much as, say, mids).

Donovan Pines, 21, DC (ranked 24, not listed):
The highest-rated WhoScored CB is playing for DC and is only 21. If you are looking him up, join the club. I had to as well.

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Outside of those two you have a bunch of players performing like they should. Notable is Ike Opara (excellent pickup by MIN), Walker Zimmerman, Auston Trusty, Miles Robinson.

 Here's how WhoScored has them:

WS	Name(2)	Team
7.17	Donovan Pines	DC
7.11	Ike Opara	MIN
7.09	Francisco Calvo	CHI
7.05	Miles Robinson	ATL
7.04	Walker Zimmerman	LAF
7.03	Maxime Chanot	NYCFC
6.98	Leandro González Pírez	ATL
6.97	Francisco Calvo	CHI
6.95	Florian Jungwirth	SJE
6.90	Frederic Brillant	DC
6.90	Amro Tarek	NYR
6.89	Steve Birnbaum	DC
6.88	Diego Polenta	LAG
6.87	Bastian Schweinsteiger	CHI
6.87	Matheus Bressan	FCD
6.84	Aaron Long	NYR
6.83	Matt Hedges	FCD
6.79	Lamine Sané	ORL
6.78	Maynor Figueroa	HOU
6.70	Zakaria Diallo	MTL

Here are my other TOP IN MLS lists, so far:

FORWARDs
CENTRAL MIDFIELD
RIGHT MIDFIELD
LEFT BACKS

Top Forwards in MLS

Today we are looking at the top Forwards in MLS in continuation with all the other positions that I have evaluated over the last week or so. I did it before last weekend's games, but that only matters in specific stats. The overall rank of players aren't going to change much because I take the rank of the player based on WhoScored.com's measurement against my own here at Helltown.

Here the are, the best Forwards in MLS 2019:

29: Median Age of these guys
$2.0 million: Median salary

	Name(2)	BIRTHPLACE	Team	Age	Salary
1	Carlos Vela	Cancun, Mexico	LAF	30	$6,300,000
2	Diego Rossi	Montevideo, Uruguay	LAF	21	$1,052,000
3	Zlatan Ibrahimovic	Malmo, Sweden	LAG	38	$7,200,000
4	Josef Martínez	Valencia, Venezuela	ATL	26	$3,058,333
5	Wayne Rooney	Liverpool, England	DC	34	$3,507,500
6	Carles Gil	Valencia, Spain	NER	27	$2,337,500
7	Latif Blessing	Accra, Ghana	LAF	23	$103,125
8	Kacper Przybylko	Bielefeld, Germany	PHI	26	$277,000
9	Darwin Quintero	Tumaco, Colombia	MIN	32	$1,750,000
10	Kei Kamara	Kenema, Sierra Leone	COL	35	$750,000

If you are in the MLS orbit, you probably recognize most of these names. Well, I take that back. You probably don't know Elis, Blessing, Castellanos, Heber or Savarino. I wrote about Carles Gil before the season started and it looks like he is paying off for New England this year.

Here are the WhoScored player ratings, sorted:

WS	Name(2)	Team
8.50	Carlos Vela	LAF
7.71	Zlatan Ibrahimovic	LAG
7.49	Kacper Przybylko	PHI
7.44	Diego Rossi	LAF
7.42	Wayne Rooney	DC
7.40	Josef Martínez	ATL
7.37	Alberth Elis	HOU
7.35	Carles Gil	NER
7.30	Kei Kamara	COL
7.30	Johnny Russell	SKC
7.24	Latif Blessing	LAF
7.21	Jefferson Savarino	RSL
7.19	Darwin Quintero	MIN
7.15	Araújo Héber	NYCFC
7.07	Alexandru Mitrita	NYCFC
7.02	Jordan Morris	SEA
7.01	C.J. Sapong	CHI
7.00	Valentin Castellanos	NYCFC
6.93	Mauro Manotas	HOU

As mentioned in one of my other posts on this top player stuff, Rooney is loved by modern measurements because he does loads of stuff in the midfield.

Lastly, Rossi should be mentioned somewhere in there - so Diego Rossi.