Monday, June 15, 2020

Florida Covid Increase, Does MLS have a Problem?

CNN, NY Post, Vox, The Miami Herald, Orlando Sentinel, Newsweek, CBS are news outlets that have fresh pieces up on the recent spike in new coronavirus cases in Florida this morning.

Looking at the numbers, it is true. Florida is spiking in new cases, but they are also testing a lot more people. This suggests that the state wants to know if reopening is an okay thing to do. That's good! It also suggests that either more people have always had the virus, they just weren't tested or Florida is in some deep dog do-do.

I've been closely monitoring both Ohio and Virginia since the outbreak, with a focus on deaths. Why that measurement? The one the people say has too much lag? Because I feel that when that figure rests at a very low number for 2+ weeks after re-opening then it may be possible to breathe a little. Both VA and Ohio appear to be close to the other side in that metric.

Early indicators of a new spread show up in other places. Raw new case numbers are a red flag, but more importantly % of new tests that are positive. All three, OH-VA-FL, appear to still be in a decent place with that. All clocking in at or around 5%.

That said, Florida is seeing a % increase alongside its recent increase in testing per day. Over the last few weeks, Virginia and Ohio have been testing around 10k a day. Florida, on the other hand, is testing 30k. Bigger state, more tests, yes. But if you look closely at my chart and the blue Florida line, you'll see it marching up a bit above where it has been.


Major League Soccer plans to kick off their Orlando, FL tournament in a couple weeks. With Florida cases on the rise, they might run into some friction. Not only with the general rise in cases, but with the optics of opening among a "second wave."

This might also alert the player's union and possibly cause some players to force their way out of playing (something we are seeing in the NBA). So, it could get messy. Especially if the long-feared second virus wave is matched with new positive tests and reported deaths across the country.

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