Pedro Santos, Darlington Nagbe OUT

The Crew announced yesterday that both Pedro Santos and Darlington Nagbe are out of the MLS Cup Final tomorrow. The way it is written is confusing. "Medically not cleared to play," is the official statement for the two players, yet it does not specifically tie them to the positive Covid test that was also reported on the same day.

We can assume that the positive test is at least one of the players. Santos, I guess. Nagbe did take a cheap shot by a New England player early last match, so maybe he's hurt? Who knows. 

I'm guessing that the league is purposefully being obtuse in order to make sure the game is played.

Seattle is now favored +130 to the Crew's +220. 

Columbus had the edge before yesterday.

Covid Strikes Crew, Game in Doubt

Ohio is struggling with the spread of Covid and it has now impacted the Columbus Crew. It is being reported that six players have tested positive for the virus in front of the game that is scheduled to be played tomorrow afternoon.

The Crew's opponent, Nashville SC, just came off a victory against Inter Miami who had four players out due to positive tests. With that precedent, it is possible that this game will go on as scheduled even with a third of the team out of action.

There have been no reports on who has tested positive. The team is only allowed to work in individual drills in practice this week, so any member of the press could easily report who isn't there, but being this is Columbus... it won't happen. Press covering MLS? That'll be the day (more on this below).

Caleb Porter has a press conference today at 1:30 PM to address the current situation. Knowing him, fans will get a heavy dose of "we go to war with the army we have and not the one we want" or some variation of that. There's zero chance he will pull up on the match. It'll have to be MLS's call.

...and MLS will only make that call if Columbus runs out of players because tomorrow's game is an ESPN game (the main channel) and it is in an 8:00 PM window. There's likely little chance MLS can postpone the match until a later date because ESPN already has it's scheduling complete for any timeslot in the next week. A date change would also require the next game to be rescheduled. It's a winding road that I don't think anyone wants to be on.

PRESS AND COVID

One glaring problem we are having in the United States is how we are getting information about the coronavirus. We are now nine months into this situation and it's still hazy as to the most common ways to spread the virus.

A few months ago I remember reading a lengthy report in the Washington post about several "spreader" events, but there hasn't been much since. There was a focus on one restaurant with a certain type of HVAC unit that seemed to be to blame, but there was no follow up on who else had that particular unit. Should all places be closed or just the places that are lazy about sanitation. Where are all these promised "contact tracer" jobs that the news told us about? Is it just certain bars? Car dealerships? Is it only spread through intimate types of interaction? Do we not talk about it because we are Americans and kissing, hugging, sex is best left out of the news but okay in everything else? What about sweat? Are gyms and training tables places that the virus likes to hang out on? Did we ever get clarity about the virus on fresh produce and meats? Is there a certain church denomination spreading things? How about a certain religion?

These are all simple questions that have gotten dozens of answers. I'm sure you are running through answers in your head as you read them. It might even make you mad that I'm even writing them out as the answers seem to be common sense (and you're right).

Pro sports and their athletes are effectively a "protected class" of Americans. We don't know the identities of players testing positive till the very end and we NEVER find out where they got the virus. Why? Basically, because of the same rules that apply normally. You can't lean on the team you cover or they will kick you out of the room forever. Can't get in the room and you don't have a job. It's that simple.

What I hope changes in the coming weeks, months is that there is some more openness about how and where these players are getting COVID. Governments don't have the resources to track down where everyone gets sick, but these sports teams and leagues sure as hell do. And they are! That information could go a long way in slowing the spread. 

If you are in the sports press. Or know someone in the press. Or are a fan on Twitter, reddit, or anywhere else. Ask where and how. Report where and how. It helps everyone.

Garber Memo about leaks... leaks

The Athletic has been reporting on a steady stream of COVID-19 MLS items in great detail over the last few weeks. From plans to play a tournament (and how) in Orlando to negotiations with the MLSPA - it's all there.

Well, as it turns out, MLS is not directly providing that information like they normally do to get attention. All this information has been leaking out to the press without the authorization of the league and Don Garber appears livid about it.

Last Friday Garber sent a memo (which itself leaked to The Athletic) out to the league that threatened termination and fines up to $1 million dollars for anyone leaking information. Later in the memo it states that Garber has hired an investigative firm to figure out who is leaking information.

Two of the writers at the Athletic have very close ties with MLS. One of them even worked and wrote for MLSSoccer.com. My hunch is that they don't have to go asking for this information, close friends that are likely irritated with plans in Orlando, as well as the proposed and current wages cuts, are passing it along.

MLS ON THE EDGE

Garber added that the leaks could “severely imperil the future of our League.” 

As soon as it became clear that this pandemic lockdown was going to last longer than a couple weeks, I came to the conclusion that MLS was likely going to be in some financial trouble. Gameday revenues are the lifeblood of the league as TV deals still have yet to be more than a small fraction of what others get.

Garber's fury at the leaks is a sign that MLS was likely working out something with ESPN and Disney independent of what the NBA is working on (they want the same thing in Orlando). Not so much a competition, but I think MLS was trying to have a more achievable plan than the NBA. Interestingly, the NBA released a very similar plan within a day of the MLS leak.

With large organizations, the top decisionmakers often don't get the details on their desk until it's polished. They are too busy or don't give two shits what underlings are working on. Now that all the information is out there, everyone at ESPN has a chance to evaluate it and give their two cents (ie. kill it) before it has been completely hashed out. This MLS idea in particular looks far from a finished product.

A basic way to imagine the impact is to think of it as a superhero movie that has a lot of leaks. Or the recent video game leak with the Last of Us 2. In my own career, I've had multiple projects torpedoed before all the kinks were worked out. This happens often with ideas that appear abstract to non-stakeholders.

Once it's out there, EVERYONE will poke holes it in and or steal it. Intellectual property should be guarded well.

It wasn't here with MLS, and they will be paying a huge price.

MLS All-Star Keepsake

My wife brought a Pringles can home the other day that featured the MLS All-Star game that will not be this year (canceled due to pandemic). Pringles has been a fairly recent sponsor of MLS. I see them tagged in VAR Twitter posts.

The cancellation of the all-star game is significant for MLS as it serves as a type of US Soccer trade show where sponsors, media and league employees meet up.

MLS is canceling things

MLS announced Tuesday, May 19th, that the All-Star Game vs. a team of Liga MX All-Stars and the Campeones Cup and Leagues Cup competitions have been canceled for this year.

This decision comes after news started leaking out about LigaMX shutting their season down.

None of these events are more than a few years old, but MLS has been making quite a bit of money off staging games that bring in big Liga MX crowds (bigger than regular MLS games).

Don Garber has expressed interest in merging the two leagues amid Liga MX recently suspending their convoluted promotion and relegation system.

I expect the two leagues to attempt to merge ahead of the 2026 World Cup that takes place in the US, Mexico, and Canada.

ANY MLS RESTART UPDATES

Not since last week. There has been no news on either the 20% player pay cut nor the pie in the sky idea of playing a tournament in Orlando.

Sports have started to get going, however. The Bundesliga started back up last weekend. NASCAR held a race. I think there was a horse racing event. Also, there was a charity golf event that hosted many of the sports stars.

MLS, along with MLB, NBA, and the NHL are still in a holding pattern.

MLS proposes pay cut, reopening

After leaking out a near 50% pay cut a few weeks ago, MLS has submitted a proposal to the player's union to cut pay by 20%. According to ESPN, if the cuts happen on July 1, players would only lose 20% of half seasons pay. The assumption by ESPN is that players will keep 100% of their pay up to that point.

What this means is that players will lose only 20% of half their year's wages. For the league as a whole, that means somewhere around $30m off the top. For a player like Michael Bradley, who made $6.4 million last year, that would mean a $643k pay cut (20% of half a years pay).

I think it's a leap for ESPN (Jeff Carlisle and Noah Davis) to calculate 20% on a half year's pay. I think MLS would sell it as a 10% cut if that were the case so the medicine goes down easier with the MLSPA. My hunch is that this is a straight 20% cut in overall pay.

Regardless, MLS is trying to get the wheels turning on this to stop some of the bleeding.

RE-OPENING

MLS is still only inching back on restarting some sort of season. The last two days we have seen a few different proposals. The one that keeps popping up involves locking players and staff down in Orlando to play games for weeks.

Nothing about this idea passes the first couple of questions. The first being - cost. Most of MLS income comes from game day activities. MLS will go even deeper in the hole with no fans. The second hurdle it can't get over is locking players into a hotel for a long period of time away from families and friends. Never mind that these are 20-30 somethings and there's no way to lock them down.

Ultimately, these ideas are futile. We are still in the middle of this pandemic, not on the other side.

MAKING MATTERS WORSE!

Last thing here is something you've probably picked up on. MLS is negotiating a pay cut while proposing ideas to get back to playing. "Hey employees, I'm cutting your wages and then going to require you to go into a damn moon bubble for a couple months."

Where the heck is leadership in this? It makes no sense. Get ducks in a row about returning to play and then approach players on a pay cut.

I still contend that MLS should push the start of play to the Fall and flip the calendar. There is a great chance that the NFL will officially open the sports country. Let them do it, then start your season in September.

Voices to shut '20 MLS down?

Yesterday, Portland Timbers and Thorns' primary investor, operator, CEO, and member of various committees and boards across the US Soccer landscape said the following via Twitter:

March was bad. April was even harder.  

But I believe May will give us some positive momentum to start a path back. Advancements are close on treatments/therapeutics & data is suggesting Oregon can soon carefully start managing the lifting of local restrictions. 

Stay strong (emoji flexed arm). - Merritt Paulson 

It is mildly surprising is that only a handful of teams have started laying off staff but the "stay strong" sentiment at the end suggests that there may be some wavering hearts among MLS stakeholders.

With reports starting to emerge that suggest that more than 80% of MLS team's revenue comes from gameday activations/activity, it makes perfect sense for investors to look at shutting it down for the year.

The pressure is on, however. Youth development leagues closing for the year along with, now, bottom tier amateur / semi-pro teams in the 82 team USL2 calling it a year and colleges (which supply many of these leagues with players) mulling whether or not to even have in-person fall classes, the writing may be on the wall for the rest.

For loosely held together leagues like (NISA, USL1, NPSL, USASA) logistics of even fielding a roster might even be a bridge too far, let alone playing games.

WHERE IS MLS-COVID

Two weeks ago Don Garber said conversations with the MLS Players Association were just getting started in regards to player pay cuts - but since then it has been silent on the business front (well, until Paulson's tweet).

It's clear that Garber and MLS have decided, at least in the short term, that MLS would try generating forward-looking COVID related content instead of history/past pieces like best player by jersey number, MLS Classics, and endless clips of the old shootouts. It's always a good thing to look forward, but the slight change is a signal that MLS is trying to own the situation they are in instead of just endure it.

Paulson's comments, the silence from MLS and the MLSPA and the shift in content creation leads me to believe that the league is going to hold fast as long as they can in the belief that there will be a way to play games in front of fans.

I believe this puts the league on shaky ground. I don't think fans will be able to watch games this year. The fear of COVID returning in the Fall will be too great and there will be states that enter into another lockdown situation.

1st hint of open facilities

A handful of states not hit hard by COVID-19 are starting to make plans to loosen recommended restrictions on the stay at home orders and certain non-essential business closures.

There are a few states that are itching to open up earlier than recommended guidelines by a few days but a rundown of what each state is doing shows that most (outside of the Northeast, Northwest, and California) are going to start slowing opening this week (Monday, April 27).

With that news, the NBA is the first league to start opening facilities in areas where the state is lifting restrictive orders. The NBA is being very careful to word things right in order to not draw the ire of politicians. Opening facilities does not mean that there will be practices, just that players can come to work out, yet will still observe social distancing.

ESPN story on NBA opening practice facilities for players in markets where governments are loosening stay-at-home restrictions. https://t.co/cZfpQpTJ6N

— Adrian Wojnarowski (@wojespn) April 25, 2020

Major League Soccer has not floated any ideas about reopening facilities, but it is safe to say that with the NBA doing it - they will follow.

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Here's a quick rundown of MLS teams that might be able to use team facilities in the next week or so (state by state summaries pulled from New York Magazine):

Atlanta United
Governor Brian Kemp has made the nation’s biggest push to reopen in the country. Starting Friday, April 24, barbershops, gyms, salons, and massage therapists can reopen. On Monday, April 27, restaurants and movie theaters can follow. Despite the loosened restrictions, not all business owners will be reopening.

Colorado Rapids
With its stay-at-home order set to expire Sunday, Colorado moves to a new phase called “safer at home” on Monday, with some businesses allowed to reopen for curbside service. Then on Friday, May 1, personal-service and retail businesses can reopen with strict social-distancing measures in place. Bars and restaurants will remain closed to in-person dining at least until mid-May.

Minnesota United FC
Starting Monday, April 27, some nonessential businesses will begin to reopen in Minnesota. An executive order from Governor Tim Walz applies to “workers in non-customer facing industrial and office-based businesses who cannot work from home,” he said. Walz estimated that this would put 80,000 to 100,000 people back to work.

Nashville SC
Restaurants in Tennessee will be allowed to reopen on April 27, and retail stores on April 29, provided they operate at 50 percent capacity. The loosened restrictions from Governor Bill Lee will apply only in Tennessee counties without their own public-health departments, meaning large cities including Nashville, Memphis, and Knoxville will be allowed to set their own timeline.

FC Dallas / Houston Dynamo
Friday, April 24, will be the first day Texas businesses can offer “retail-to-go” services. This will allow nonessential retail businesses to make sales online or over the phone and deliver products curbside. Governor Greg Abbott has said he will make announcements about additional openings on Monday, April 27.

Columbus Crew / FC Cincy
When the state’s stay-at-home order expires on April 30, Governor Mike DeWine has pledged to begin “a phased-in reopening of the state economy.”

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There are likely going to be some issues around competitive advantage coming along with this. I'm sure that team personnel has already been in and out of offices throughout the lockdown and that means that players have been in as well.

Competitive advantages aren't always in regards to practice and working out. It is also resolving contract issues, bring players back into town to be ready to go. Player evaluations. Etc, etc.

I have a feeling that most will open facilities back up for employees and players within two weeks of this first group but getting the wheels turning for a few of these teams will give them a little edge over the coastal areas that are likely weeks and weeks off letting things open.

New Youth Structure, MLS to Cut Salaries

Last week brought out big news in MLS's little corner of the globe. Both items will have lasting impact on what the league looks like down the road.

1. USSF shut down its Development Academy program - all at once. MLS swooped in and announced that they would be picking up the slack and seemingly just slap their name on most of the teams USSF is no longer funding.

This is a surprising move because the next day...

2. MLS is exploring plans to cut player salaries more than 50%" in total. MLS Players Association figures tell us that the league spent about $290 million on player wages last year. Now, MLS's (reported) proposal to their Union is a little creative in that they want to cut everyone making over $100k by half (and not let anyone making over $100k dip below that). Quick math tells us that the new MLS wage bill would be $156 million.

During a 34 game season that is about $4.6m a week vs $8.5m. At this point, even with the best scenarios, MLS will not be playing a full schedule but they offered an olive branch the union by saying they will not cut down further even if the season is canceled.

I am skeptical on that last part, but it is possible because MLS has to somehow retain players through till next season (8 months) to avoid completely rebooting rosters.

MLS IN DENILE

Don Garber is still once of the only commissioners holding on to expected re-start dates. I've stopped tracking it, but I think it's now sometime in June. I'm not sure if that is wishful thinking or what. Large gatherings of more than 20 will probably not be in place by then, let alone enough to squeeze in full team training sessions. Playing games?! Even in empty stadiums? That's a pipe dream until late summer.

THE ONLY HOPE FOR DON

The only hope the team sports world has of getting anything going is if the governors decide that sports are an essential business and EVEN THEN it will likely follow a pecking order that allows the NFL and MLB to get going.

There simply aren't enough healthcare resources to fire up all sports all at once. Even if there were, can you imagine the optics of sports teams testing thousands a weekend? The entire state of Ohio is only able to test 2,600 people a day. That's likely how much a few NFL games on a Sunday would take.

So, here is my updated 2020 sports projection:

- Fall college sports? Cooked!
- MLS, NWSL, USL, ALL THINGS SOCCER - COOKED.
- Golf... not cooked.
- MLB? Will probably schedule a few games.
- NHL, NBA, WNBA - Cooked till fall at best.
- Bowling? Not cooked.
- NFL... will likely get to play somehow.

COVID-19: MLS Making Cuts

Big MLS news from ESPN:

"MLS announced last week that it cut the salaries of its top three executives, including Garber, by 25%, while also reducing management and other staff pay."

A couple more notes:

- Don Garber expects teams to start cutting more office staff and wages in the coming days and weeks.

-  Garber also expects discussions to happen in and around player wage cuts.

Not to minimize the impact to front office staff, but player salaries are the biggest concern for MLS. With other leagues starting to have realistic plans to open the season back up (Germany, namely) next month, MLS knows it has to do everything in its power to pay players because if they can't? They risk losing them to leagues in countries that are in better shape in regards to the coronavirus.

It is impossible to predict the future of live sports in the US right now. The most important item on the menu is easily when MLS can get back to playing and that date doesn't even exist yet by a long shot.

Chaos will reign if MLS has to cut wages or even furlough players. Cats and dogs and lawyers everywhere. Expect to see which team investors are in this for the long haul and which were in it for a quick buck by May 1.

PREDICTION TIME!

I think MLS will cancel its 2020 season and let players that can move to other leagues or back home - go (over 50% of MLS are foreign players). The rest of the players who decide to stay will be on furlough until 2021 and locked in with their teams until then.

Don Garber, like other league commissioners, keep throwing out optimistic dates and/or outlandish ideas to get games played. I have bad news for them. Games aren't happing on US soil for a long time.

I think when fans are eventually allowed to attend games there will be restrictions on how many can attend and, quite possibly, only fans that have been vaccinated or sign some sort of release form can go (a release that requires testing after the game and possible quarantine, etc).

Vaccination is likely still a year or so off.

MLS In Trouble

As the social distancing clock ticks onward it's becoming increasingly clear that major sporting events might not be played for quite some time.

Donald Trump pulled together a large contingent of pro sports commissioners yesterday to talk about possible futures. Not too much is known about the meeting, but Trump does indicate a desire to get things rolling again. How? Who knows.

Meanwhile, in Germany, they are preparing the people for this to continue on for the duration of 2020. In Michael McCann's latest for Sports Illustrated he suggests that this will possibly alter things for years to come.

The blowback is already being felt on a team level. Every day there is news about a club like Liverpool cutting wages or stories about loss of TV revenue if the season isn't finished.

In the United States, leagues fall under a more corporate umbrella. Meaning it's a "we all survive or we all die" type approach. To my knowledge, no players or coaches have had wages cut from the major leagues thus far (MLB, NFL, NHL, NBA, MLS). However, in talking with some industry folks it seems like the wheels are turning on dropping office staff until things get going again.

A QUICK CRYSTAL BALL LOOK-IN

MLB: Things hit right before opening day. I have a feeling they will take a mulligan on the season. Perhaps, if possible, play a few closed-door games in the fall. They likely have a massive war chest and can survive a season off.

NFL: I think they will do anything to play, but doing so in front of 60-80k fans isn't going to happen. At best, I see them trying to force the door open to play games in front of small groups of fans, but the likelihood of that is tiny. NFL can survive either way.

NHL, NBA: Both were just a couple weeks off finishing their season so a lot of the revenue from TV probably kicked in. They likely needed it. I don't think they could last (in current form) if a season was called off.

MLS: I believe this will be devastating. About a third of their revenue comes from gameday activities and I do not see any part of the 2020 season being played. With a number of high profile stadium builds going on and many other cities on the hook to somehow support the teams with (severely diminished) local taxes... it's going to be hard to fire everything up as it was. Salaries will have to be slashed and a fresh round of capital will be needed. In effect, restarting the league but with a whole bunch of existing cost.

UPCOMING TV DEALS

They only two that need highlighting here is the NFL and MLS. Both leagues have negotiations going on now in advance of expiring deals in 2021 and 2022. With broadcasters hemorrhaging money right now because of the lack of live sports it is difficult to tell what will happen.

Everyone wants to get sports back on TV, like granddaddy Johnson liked to say, "If there ain't money there, there ain't money there."

The NFL will likely soak up most of the broadcast dollars (to say nothing of a number of College Football deals coming up) so MLS is in a world of hurt and will need support to restart.

Compounding the issues for MLS is that half the league's players are not from the United States. If other leagues start playing games, what will/can they do to try and keep players from leaving? For example, in training is still going on in Sweden where restrictions aren't as tight and reports out of China are that things are slowly returning to normal.

Lastly, and further compounding things for MLS is that the league is propped up by it's marketing arm SUM. They profit not by MLS, but by international tournaments and the Mexican National team matches played in the United States.

With the other major sports leagues (and college athletics) I can see a way forward, even if the impact of COVID-19 is felt for years. For MLS and a potentially lost season? The future is very murky. And that's not good.