Pro US Leagues Too Optimistic

It's not hard to come across one of the major pro sports leagues in the US offering out some outlandish idea on how to get going. ESPN (if anyone is still watching) gives just about all of them some air to breathe simply due to having not much else to talk about. From there you see the social media trial balloons that get bounced around. Eventually one or two might make their way to the major TV networks for a laugh.

The fact of the matter is this - It is becoming increasingly clear that sports will look completely different for at least the next two years.

THE GRAND RE-OPENING

The Atlantic has a clear thinking piece that lays out how things might be able to reopen. It's worth a read, even if you are consuming just about everything COVID-19. In it, they ask the question: “Everyone wants to know when this will end. That’s not the right question. The right question is: How do we continue?”

Our Pandemic Summer

The fight against the coronavirus won’t be over when the U.S. reopens. Here’s how the nation must prepare itself.

This process might take several weeks to unfold, and even at the end of it, none of the experts I spoke with was comfortable with the return of crowded public spaces. Gottlieb’s road map, for example, recommends that until a vaccine or an effective treatment is produced, social gatherings should be limited to 50 people or fewer. That will be especially challenging in large cities: An average Manhattan street or subway car is the equivalent of a mass gathering. Elsewhere, concerts, conferences, summer camps, political rallies, large weddings, and major sporting events may all have to be suspended for at least this year. “It’s hard for me to imagine anyone going to Fenway Park and sitting with 30,000 fans—that will almost surely be a bad idea,” said Ashish Jha, an internist and public-health expert at Harvard. “This isn’t going to look like a normal summer in America.”

That's a generous quote, but important to the world of US sports. No matter how you slice the timeline, "the norm" of consuming sports entertainment is likely over. No league will reopen it's doors to large crowds for the foreseeable future (meaning: years) for insurance purposes alone, nevermind the collective fear most people will have in regards to getting sick.

We may see clunky endings to European soccer leagues and perhaps even the NBA in this calendar year, but from a future-thinking perspective - the pro party is over. Salaries will be completely slashed and stadiums will be burdens on local cities.

Leagues (and cities that have teams) should plan for this now. I've been keeping an eye out for someone to think realistically instead of trying to shoehorn in games in Las Vegas or Arizona. I've yet to see it.

COVID-19: MLS Making Cuts

Big MLS news from ESPN:

"MLS announced last week that it cut the salaries of its top three executives, including Garber, by 25%, while also reducing management and other staff pay."

A couple more notes:

- Don Garber expects teams to start cutting more office staff and wages in the coming days and weeks.

-  Garber also expects discussions to happen in and around player wage cuts.

Not to minimize the impact to front office staff, but player salaries are the biggest concern for MLS. With other leagues starting to have realistic plans to open the season back up (Germany, namely) next month, MLS knows it has to do everything in its power to pay players because if they can't? They risk losing them to leagues in countries that are in better shape in regards to the coronavirus.

It is impossible to predict the future of live sports in the US right now. The most important item on the menu is easily when MLS can get back to playing and that date doesn't even exist yet by a long shot.

Chaos will reign if MLS has to cut wages or even furlough players. Cats and dogs and lawyers everywhere. Expect to see which team investors are in this for the long haul and which were in it for a quick buck by May 1.

PREDICTION TIME!

I think MLS will cancel its 2020 season and let players that can move to other leagues or back home - go (over 50% of MLS are foreign players). The rest of the players who decide to stay will be on furlough until 2021 and locked in with their teams until then.

Don Garber, like other league commissioners, keep throwing out optimistic dates and/or outlandish ideas to get games played. I have bad news for them. Games aren't happing on US soil for a long time.

I think when fans are eventually allowed to attend games there will be restrictions on how many can attend and, quite possibly, only fans that have been vaccinated or sign some sort of release form can go (a release that requires testing after the game and possible quarantine, etc).

Vaccination is likely still a year or so off.

MLS In Trouble

As the social distancing clock ticks onward it's becoming increasingly clear that major sporting events might not be played for quite some time.

Donald Trump pulled together a large contingent of pro sports commissioners yesterday to talk about possible futures. Not too much is known about the meeting, but Trump does indicate a desire to get things rolling again. How? Who knows.

Meanwhile, in Germany, they are preparing the people for this to continue on for the duration of 2020. In Michael McCann's latest for Sports Illustrated he suggests that this will possibly alter things for years to come.

The blowback is already being felt on a team level. Every day there is news about a club like Liverpool cutting wages or stories about loss of TV revenue if the season isn't finished.

In the United States, leagues fall under a more corporate umbrella. Meaning it's a "we all survive or we all die" type approach. To my knowledge, no players or coaches have had wages cut from the major leagues thus far (MLB, NFL, NHL, NBA, MLS). However, in talking with some industry folks it seems like the wheels are turning on dropping office staff until things get going again.

A QUICK CRYSTAL BALL LOOK-IN

MLB: Things hit right before opening day. I have a feeling they will take a mulligan on the season. Perhaps, if possible, play a few closed-door games in the fall. They likely have a massive war chest and can survive a season off.

NFL: I think they will do anything to play, but doing so in front of 60-80k fans isn't going to happen. At best, I see them trying to force the door open to play games in front of small groups of fans, but the likelihood of that is tiny. NFL can survive either way.

NHL, NBA: Both were just a couple weeks off finishing their season so a lot of the revenue from TV probably kicked in. They likely needed it. I don't think they could last (in current form) if a season was called off.

MLS: I believe this will be devastating. About a third of their revenue comes from gameday activities and I do not see any part of the 2020 season being played. With a number of high profile stadium builds going on and many other cities on the hook to somehow support the teams with (severely diminished) local taxes... it's going to be hard to fire everything up as it was. Salaries will have to be slashed and a fresh round of capital will be needed. In effect, restarting the league but with a whole bunch of existing cost.

UPCOMING TV DEALS

They only two that need highlighting here is the NFL and MLS. Both leagues have negotiations going on now in advance of expiring deals in 2021 and 2022. With broadcasters hemorrhaging money right now because of the lack of live sports it is difficult to tell what will happen.

Everyone wants to get sports back on TV, like granddaddy Johnson liked to say, "If there ain't money there, there ain't money there."

The NFL will likely soak up most of the broadcast dollars (to say nothing of a number of College Football deals coming up) so MLS is in a world of hurt and will need support to restart.

Compounding the issues for MLS is that half the league's players are not from the United States. If other leagues start playing games, what will/can they do to try and keep players from leaving? For example, in training is still going on in Sweden where restrictions aren't as tight and reports out of China are that things are slowly returning to normal.

Lastly, and further compounding things for MLS is that the league is propped up by it's marketing arm SUM. They profit not by MLS, but by international tournaments and the Mexican National team matches played in the United States.

With the other major sports leagues (and college athletics) I can see a way forward, even if the impact of COVID-19 is felt for years. For MLS and a potentially lost season? The future is very murky. And that's not good.

How to get PPE to Hospitals

Since the start of the pandemic here in the United States, we have all heard the calls for PPE. Now, PPE is not a term I have ever heard outside of my warehouse employment, particularly Amazon (CMH2, DCM1 AMZL). PPE stands for Personal Protective Equipment.

THE PROBLEM

PPE items are running out or are out at hospitals all across the country. In particular masks, but other basic items that you see healthcare professionals wearing during this event. I'm not terribly concerned with the exact type or model numbers of what is needed here, just the logistics of getting it to the people that desperately need it.

The current set up (if you can call it a set up at all) is not working.

HOW IT WORKS NOW

Everyone orders online. That's basically it. If it can't be delivered then we get the modern "OMG WE ARE OUT." I see this from a lot of younger nurses and doctors - which then gets picked up by the news. The result is that if it isn't available on Amazon or Walmart then there is a global shortage because that's all most people know now.

The truth of the matter is that online shops are not vetting who gets important materials/items and who doesn't. So, it just disappears quickly when it's posted that there is inventory - it is a free for all. This is a problem because the people that need it most don't have time to park themselves on Amazon.

Before the advent of online shopping, we had to call ahead and load up in a car and drive to find it. That's was a giant pain, yes, but (the positive was) stores could easily control who got things and who did not. We are seeing a version of this already with specific hours for seniors.

THE SOLUTION

The US can use physical stores as mini storage centers.

Work with CVS and Walgreens. Supply their physical stores. The government should direct this activity and work directly with the big box stores to stock the areas in most need. Employees at the physical stores (preferably pharmacists) can work directly with the local network of hospitals in the area.

We don't have time to set up some sort of goddamn ERP inventory system before we get this going. Simple phone calls, barcodes, and spreadsheets worked for generations and they will work here.

CVS and Walgreens get a warehousing %. Amazon Delivery, UPS, FedEx, USPS can deliver to the stores, depending on the origin of the items.

CVS and Walgreens vet the buyer before selling the item, ensuring that it goes to where it is most needed.

Between the two stores, there are almost 20,000 locations in the United States.

FINAL THOUGHTS

Inserting an extra layer of governmental control is not something I particularly like, but it's necessary here to ensure PPE and any other items get to the people that need them most. We have the manufacturing capacity in this country to meet demand, especially on paper products. It just requires a little extra admin.

Coronavirus and Columbus

Children's Medicine

I reckon a post about what's going on in and around Columbus, Ohio during the Coronavirus pandemic is something I might regret not posting down the road.

CLOSED (and Open)

Restaurants, bars, sporting events, K-12 schools, universities, standing within 6 feet of each other, etc are all closed or canceled. Citizens have been ordered by the governor to stay home. But that's a nice to have. Amazon, Walmart, Target, grocery stores, coffee shops (take out only) are still operational. With the big box stores, their distribution networks are still functional. As a matter of fact, they are growing. That means employees at those cavernous warehouses, delivery drivers, truck drivers, EVERYTHING is still going.

If you travel on the roads you might not notice any difference in traffic at first. It kinda looks like it does when school lets out for the summer. But if look at IT a little closer, especially at peak rush hour times, you can tell it's less. My estimate is about 30-50% fewer cars and trucks on the road.

FEWER CARS, COOLER WEATHER

This probably deserves its own post, but I'll never get to it (if I'm being honest with myself). COLUMBUS IS A SUV CITY. Meaning, huge growth in this town has run alongside the modern sport utility vehicle. What this means is that new roads, city and town planning, EVERYTHING is built around large cars.

Walmart - TP and Paper Towels

Delivering for Amazon really opened my eyes to this. If you haven't been here, Columbus is not so much a "city" as it is a massive collection of suburbs. The go on for seemingly ever. In older suburbs, you see the classic layout with smaller roads and culdesacs. Outside of the smaller houses, one way to tell it's an older community is the number of cars. They are everywhere. Why? The kids you had when you moved in 20 years ago are now teens and you gave them cars.

Newer communities are enormously wide streets that wind safely around. Included are even spots for the giant SUV's that resemble yachts to turn around. I favored these as a delivery driver, but it is incredibly wasteful.

Regardless, Car City Columbus roads are now only about half full and I've noticed a slight change in the weather towards the cooler side.

Weatherman and women are almost always correct these days. They might miss on how long it will rain or the temp by a degree or two, but that's about it. But when I was working a job in 2018 that required me to travel out to Perry County, Ohio a lot I noticed that without fail, it was about 5-8 degrees cooler. This area is only about 30 miles away. That shift in temp might not seem like much but it is. 82 degrees in Columbus was 75 degrees in towns a little East. Or 36 degrees and rain in Columbus was 28 and snowy in New Lexington. It made a difference, and I saw it.

With the weather in Columbus this last week, it was about 5 degrees cooler than the weather people forecasted each day. What that meant is that last Sunday they were saying the week was going to be in the 50's and then by Friday get to 70. Instead, it was 40's Monday to Wednesday with frosty mornings and 50's Thursday. Yesterday (Friday) was correct, but we got a hellish storm that nobody saw coming.

I believe this is because there are fewer cars on the roads. I've always believed that car traffic and impact local weather a great deal and Columbus is a perfect example. Not just the pollution, but the heat coming off the asphalt. Like firing up an oven to heat the house.

ANYWAY

As for our little family of my wife and our 3-year-old, we are doing well. A long-planned trip back (for me) to Virginia is about to happen this coming week. Yesterday was our daughter's last day in daycare (still open) as we start to prep our move.

We spend most of our time in the house "social distancing" with occasional trips to the store. I'll post some pictures of grocery shelves so we don't forget the panic buying that's going on.

Video games, a few movies, writing, soccer analysis, taxes (yay!), and watching government officials on TV is the daily routine.

MLS: An Altered Future

The last week has reshaped our world in ways that we quite possibly never imagined. Here in Ohio, they seem to know that the Coronavirus is much more widespread than the official number of confirmed cases (50 as of this writing) because they have now closed just about everything in the state, including schools, for an indefinite amount of time.

MLS, like all the other professional leagues across the globe, have closed their doors, but curiously added a timeframe of 30 days. Given the news at the time, and especially now, 30 days is not in any way a realistic number. The NBA is very open about plans to restart the season and they are not expecting to restart until at least June. And that is without fans.

There are pressures on MLS that might not be on other leagues.

MLS was only able to play two rounds of games. That's only 6% of the regular season. Include the playoffs and it shrinks even further. NBA, NHL, College Basketball conferences all almost made it to their playoffs. If the season is truncated (which I think is likely), they will take an incredible hit. Not just on the TV side, but also on the game-day revenue side. Games will likely have to be canceled.

MLS also doesn't own all the facilities where they play, so a long stoppage will start bumping up against everyone and everything trying to squeeze in their event like concerts, conventions, NFL and College gridiron games, etc. MLS also does not have the resources to pay employees wages during the work stoppage like the other "big four" leagues in the United States.

MLS just doesn't think this will blow over in 30 days. They NEED it to blow over in 30 days. If this lasts longer, MLS investors will have to start getting very creative in how to hold things together until they can start training and playing again.

Best estimates have that happening in June or July. That only gives MLS a few months to cram in as much as they can. I don't see that as an option at this point. So, now what.

I DO NOT BELIEVE MLS WILL RESTART THE 2020 SEASON.

If my hunch is correct, MLS is looking at flipping the calendar. The MLS 2020 Season will become the 2020/21 MLS Season with the season starting in August or September and going to late spring, early summer.

Here are three reasons why:

1. Lines up transfer windows. 
Primary and secondary windows in Europe see completely different amounts of money being spent. Right now MLS is starting their season in the "secondary" window, where the biggest spenders are only looking for a couple players. If MLS wants to join the party they have to switch.

2. LigaMX is merging with MLS.
MLS and LigaMX have made it clear that they want more games vs. each other. It's a mutually beneficial relationship. MLS provides some stability (bottomless pits of money) and some added structure. LigaMX brings passion, fans, and better soccer. Currently, LigaMX plays a Fall - Winter / Winter - Summer schedule. The two leagues already face off during the CCL, various friendlies, and a new summer tournament. Switching the calendar greases the rails for advancing the merger objective.

3. Hot Weather Ruins Games.
Baseball is the perfect summer sport. Soccer is the furthest thing from it. Midfield players can run around 6-8 miles during a match. No timeouts, foul shots, or quarter breaks to give you a blow or reset the players mentality. The league is increasingly moving south. To continue to play games in the summer not only slows the game down to a crawl, but it's also dangerous for players. With a short winter break that lines up with team retooling during the secondary transfer window couldn't fit more perfectly. More games in reasonable weather, including the playoffs and league final, is a no brainer that easily offsets a few December and February inconveniences. With more teams in warm/moderate weather, they can be scheduled around, anyway.

Crew are Playing - Don't Go

Jay Inslee, Governor of the State of Washington, is expected to announce today that he will be banning events that have gatherings of more than 250 people. This includes sporting events.

Now, a governor "banning" gatherings is a pretty big deal in the United States. Many US citizens believe that they can make their own decisions on what they attend and what they don't. There are others that might take a more legally minded approach to it and say that it is outright illegal to make such a ban.

As much as it might make some sense to ban events in favor of "social distancing," I do not think this is something a governor can enforce. Yesterday, here in Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine made suggestions and recommendations. Perhaps that's the way to go? I'm not sure.

That said: With all the information available to us, I do not think it is a good idea to be going to sporting events (or any large gatherings). Young and old. This includes the Crew home game this weekend.

You, dear reader, are young and strong and can fight off any super-duper virus that you get. I'm sure of it. But, in a few week's time I will be in Virginia with my 80+-year-old father. I am going to be taking as few risks as possible over the next few weeks to reduce the chances of getting the Coronavirus. Not because I think I'll get ill, but because I know that it is possible that I could make someone else gravely ill.

MLS will not make decisions to postpone games or otherwise do anything that will hurt revenue. You have to do that yourself.

It would be wonderful if Dr. Pete Edwards, part Operator of the Columbus Crew and someone I'm sure knows better, came out and recommended to MLS the game be postponed to later in the year.

The data out there tells us that reducing the "spike" in cases is the best thing we can do. That means it might be a little uncomfortable for a few weeks via social distancing, but ultimately, it will get under control and minimize the impact on communities.

The Crew are already the last team to have played in Seattle before a serious lockdown on events. That's a bit scary in and of itself. If MLS doesn't do anything this weekend, I would say as a red-blooded make your own decisions American...

...do not go.

COVID-19: Crew Shouldn't Play Tonight

A stadium employee that worked the February 22 XFL game at CenturyLink Field (where the Columbus Crew are playing tonight) tested positive this week for the Coronavirus.

Before we go further: The likelihood of anyone contracting the virus is low and even if they do contract it, the effects the virus carries are apparently similar to the common flu.

That is not the issue, however. If the timing of the first confirmed case of COVID-19 in Ohio happens to be next week, most will only remember that it came after a sports team visited the stadium where an employee had it. That impacts everything from team brand to ticket sales (no way my wife and 3 year old are going to a game right now, as it is).

The hysteria building around this virus is already impacting just about everything around us. From airports emptying to empty shelves of hand sanitizer. The actual effects of the virus or the likelihood of getting it do not matter, it's the fear. 

Much of the fear is being stoked by mass media (social media as well). Local news here in Columbus leads with it. The national news on CBS, NBC, ABC lead with it. Fear of a virus is a story that pops up any time we enter a slow news part of the calendar. The fact that they have one now that is new and trackable (modern technology!) is making this a hysteria that will only build in the coming weeks and even months.

In a warehouse environment, you do risk assessments all the time. Especially when implementing new processes. If the result of risk is devastating (ie. DEATH or Putting the company out of business) to the company and it is more than 0.0% chance of happening - you do not do it (and come up with something else).

The Columbus Crew simply cannot withstand what would happen if a player or staff member got the virus while in Seattle at CenturyLink. That risk is too great, even if the chances of it happening are very small.

Any dip in attendance, which impacts brand penetration, which destroys just about all revenue - is very, very bad for the team (and MLS).

SOLUTIONS

My personal opinion is the game should not be played, but they will play it because this is AMERICA DAMNIT. And that's fine. I good solution would be to move the game to another venue tonight or just postpone it till later this year.

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As far as official statements, King County (Seattle, WA) leaders are "in continuous dialogue with regional health authorities and Major League Soccer, in addition to our network of medical experts. Because of this, we are proceeding with Saturday's match, and Sounders FC is following the updated guidelines that were released on Wednesday by Public Health — Seattle & King County."

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An interactive map that shows where the Coronavirus is currently: Coronavirus COVID-19 Global Cases by Johns Hopkins CSSE