Quick! MLS Eastern Conf Final Table Prediction

The Major League Soccer season is here already so here's my look at where teams in the Eastern Conference might finish based on projected player minutes, goals and team carryover.

Projected Pts : TEAM
67 : Sporting Kansas City
53 : Houston Dynamo
52 : Chicago Fire
51 : DC United
47 : NY Red Bulls
46 : Columbus Crew
44 : Impact Montreal
42 : Toronto FC
42 : New England Revs
42 : Philadelphia Union

The way I approached it was to start with minutes and then from there use players historical goal scoring rates (if available). While there is definitely some dark arts involved in estimating minutes for players, it's not just a blind guess. Putting this together I found that 8 of the 10 East teams are bringing back greater than 75% of possible MLS minutes in a 34 game regular season (there is even a healthy 146 of the 279 players in East registering MLS minutes in previous two years).

For the new guys I made projections based on groups, like; 1st year MLS college player, starting international signing, roster signing (in the 18), non-college youth signing, etc. From there I made general estimations based on position, expected minutes and goals. It is also based it off of my observations of the league since 2011.

There is also a tricky third group that players like Dom Dwyer fall into which is guys that have played in the league but will be getting significantly more minutes.

Here is what I'm projecting for goals for:
53 : TFC
52 : DCU
50 : SKC
47 : NY
46 : MTL
46 : HOU
46 : CHI
43 : CLB
43 : NER
40 : PHI

TURNING GOALS INTO POINTS

Once I got minutes and goals down looked at goal to point values for each team over the last two years. Goal value here is how many points each goal is worth to a team or Points per Goal (league average is 1.05 pts earned per goal scored). I like pts earned per goal because it takes in to account goals against (defense) and it is simple.

Pts Per Goal : Team (pts, goals last 2 yrs)
1.36 : SKC (121,89)
1.17 : HOU (104,89)
1.14 : CHI (106,93)
1.08 : CLB (93,86)
1.04 : PHL (82,79)
1.01 : NY (116,115)
0.99 : DCU (74,75)
0.98 : NER (86,88)
0.96 : MTL (91,95)
0.79 : TFC (52,66)

Now that I had what a goal is worth to each team I multiplied times my goal projection to get a points projection at the top of the post.

POINT RANGE

They range you see on the chart from each team is based on returning MLS Minutes (carryover). The idea behind that is teams that bring players back or build rosters with experienced MLS players tend to be more successful (and predictable).

I kept it simple so, for example; I'm estimating that 83% of Dynamo minutes this year will be played by former Dynamo / MLS players. What this means is that 17% is all new (that's about average). I just added and subtracted that percentage from my expected pts to get the range.

The reason the Crew has such a wide range is because so many of the 33660 possible minutes will be played but new-to-MLS players (32% projection, even greater than Toronto! but then again, who knows what the heck their roster will look like by year end).

PLAYOFFS THE GOAL

Because of the structure of MLS the goal of each team is to really just finish in the top five. Looking at the chart I see that Sporting KC, Houston, Chicago and DC United are likely participants based of this model.

DC not being a surprise because they are stocked with MLS players. In a strange way they have out Bezbatchenko-ed Toronto's new mastermind Tim Bezbatchenko.

MUSHY MLS

Again, this is just putting a little bit of something behind a prediction than just going off, well... nothing. Running up and down the rosters player by player and looking at what they've done the last couple years is very informative. Brushing up on how well teams have done over the past few years is also good for me.

With MLS roster rules the way they are the starting point for these teams might look very much different in just two months. Throw in a World Cup right around the time teams are finding stride and injuries to key players and things go sideways.

This makes me wonder why I do this! But it's fun and also need to look back at after the year is done and match up some of the expectations.

Predictions: Crew (H) v Impact

Good Morning,

A well rested Montreal Impact team is in Columbus today to take on the Crew. Game start is around 7:30 PM EST.

GAME NOTES

-MTL: Looking for 4th Win in a row.
-MTL: 10 goals scored in last 3 Wins.
-CLB: 2 starters out for year Glauber, Gaven.
-MTL: Nesta will be serving suspension tonight.
-CLB: Defenders J Williams, C Marshall questionable.
-CLB: 1 Win from 6 at home.
-MTL: 3 Wins from 6 away.

PREDICTIONS

1. DREW EPPERLEY, WV Hooligan, writes; "Quick turnaround plus facing one of the league’s best clubs won’t help matters out for a struggling Columbus side." Epperley keeps a pretty good eye on the league and has been thinking the Crew would turn the corner. He has this one going 2:1 to Montreal.

2. BET365 has a fairly normal MLS line today, though it should be mentioned that things are changing now that we are approaching midseason. Edge to the Home side 11/8 but Away getting 2/1 (draw 9/4).

3. PICK 'EM team over at MLSsoccer.com has Montreal clean across the board. As a group the hover around low to mid 40% accuracy. That's above random but still around where they would be if they just picked the home team every week.

4. GOAL.COM's Keith Hickey usually writes a one sentence summary for each match. Today? "Montreal could solidify its grip on first place in the East with a win over a struggling Crew side." There is the word 'struggling' again.

5. WIN DRAW WIN tells us the wiseguys are with Montreal today (betting against the line). Large stake is on a 0:1 Away win and the 'Your Vote' prediction section is leaning Montreal as well (44% MTL Win, 20% CLB).

6. ADAM JARDY on the Crew beat for the Columbus Dispatch believes a win today for the Crew will be "a tall order". Of Note: My paper today looked great, as far as color registration goes. Best it's been all year.

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MY THOUGHTS

In order for the Crew to change their season fortunes wins have to start at home. Today's opponent is as hard as it gets and the Crew haven't beat anyone above them in the table in almost a full calendar year.

At this point in the season it is safe to say that Montreal is the real deal and not the beneficiary of luck or light scheduling. They are fully capable of winning on the road and doing so with loads of goals.

Even with deteriorating results over the past three years the Crew haven't really ever entered the depths of despair over any 5 or 10 game span. In fact the Crew have only dipped below averaging 1.00 PPG once over a 10 game span in the past year and a half.

Not entering the depths of despair isn't necessarily a silver lining but does point some degree of resiliency.

There maybe a glimmer of hope in there for the Crew if they can catch a rusty Montreal team that hasn't played in a couple weeks.

Enjoy the game, weather looks fantastic.

Predictions: Crew (H) v Houston

Good Morning,

Columbus hosts the Houston Dynamo this evening. Kickoff is 7:30 PM, 6:30 PM Texas time.

GAME NOTES
-HOU: missing key players to international duties, Brad Davis and Oscar Boniek Garcia
-CLB: 2013 year without Eddie Gaven starts tonight.
-CLB: Higuain featured in midweek US Open Cup match
-CLB: Marshall and Viana listed as out
-HOU: Bobby Boswell serving suspension
-HOU: WWLLD in last 5 (7 pts)
-CLB: WLLWD in last 5 (7 pts)

PREDICTIONS

Win Draw Win, the sports betting aggregate site, is showing a large stake on a 0:1 Away (Houston) win. The famously accurate "Your Vote" section lines up with 44% of the vote going Houston and 20% to Columbus.

Reason for the play on Houston is for the near even odds over at Bet365 for the Crew (6/5). Draw is at 11/5 and Houston 12/5.

Over at Drew Epperley's WV Hooligan site he writes; "Life without Eddie Gaven for the Crew begins this weekend." Epperley thinke both clubs have the fire power but it should wind up level at 1:1.

Voting at Goal.com has Houston heavy. Nobody votes on their previews, however. This week I entered a scoreline of 6 to 6.

Over at MLSsoccer.com the Pick 'em club favors Houston (3 of 6 votes) over the Crew (1 of 6).

Patrick Guldan, Managing Editor of Massive Report has a good right out this morning previewing the game. He believes that the missing players on the Houston side creates favorable match ups for the attacking Crew players. He's calling it 2:1 for the Crew.

No notes from Adam Jardy this week. Not because he doesn't have any but because I am away from my paper right now and the Dispatch's online presence is awful.

MY THOUGHTS AND PREDICTIONS

Beat MLS by MLSing

With all the players Houston is missing, I'm thinking it's more Dominic Kinnear vs. Crew players this week. You've got to like the Dynamo's chances there. If anything Houston knows how to pull out a draw in these types of games.

For the Crew? They need to press and try and take advantage of a weakened Eastern Conference foe. If Columbus tries to step back and play 'their game' they will lose. Houston (Kinnear) is famous for breaking apart teams that try to do that (sometimes violently).

We'll see. Might not be pretty again this week, true believers, but it will be rather evenly matched.

Enjoy the game.

Predictions: Crew v. Impact

Columbus is in snowy Montreal for a match to be played this weekend. Originally scheduled for 2 PM, Saturday April 13th but has been moved to Sunday April 14th, noon kickoff.

GAME NOTES
- Adding an extra day to travel can mean 'bad travel'.
- Some reports have Higuain as 'questionable', he did travel.
- Montreal beat the Crew in a preseason tournament championship 1:0 and looked good doing it.
- Justin Meram, Eric Gehrig did not travel.
- Impact head coach Marco Schallibaum is serving the last game of his suspension.

PREDICTIONS
Starting off with MLS soccer dot com because they got the Crew game very wrong last week.

Editor, Andrew Wiebe is at 31% accurate right now (basically as good as random selection). Further note; Matt Doyle, Armchair Analyst is at 51% accurate. A comment under the predictions calls out Mr. Doyle's affinity for Home teams. Nothing wrong with picking them. As discussed here last year after going over best predictors. Picking Home team to win gets you over half right. Picking Draw when top half club visits bottom takes you over the rainbow.

Anyhow. This MLS group favors Montreal by a vote of 4 for win and 2 pick draw.

WV Hooligan, Drew Epperley, likes Montreal here: "...the game will have one goal and the home side will end up with it."

Bet365 is leaning heavily towards Montreal, almost evens at 21/20 for them to win. Draw at 9/4, Crew 11/4. Lines could change due to postponement of match. Moving the time back also allows more information about injuries to leak out.

Win Draw Win's reliable 'fan vote' gives slight edge to Montreal, 37% to win, 34% draw. Actually, very close there and only a small stake on 1:0 Impact win.

Goal.com fan predictor is very heavy Montreal, 75% picked to win.

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MY THOUGHTS
The thing everyone thought would happen, is happening. Friction about lineup changes. Remarkably, the Crew have only had 12 different players start but the decision to sit Jairo Arrieta last match has caused some problems within the club (read more Warzycha's bizarre explanation at Massive Report).

Along with the fresh new crack within the club you have bad travel because of the game's postponement AND opening match outside for the Impact. This can wreak havoc on a club that has cracks. Not just between players/coaches but player groups/cliques.

A Crew win, even a draw, will take monumental effort and concentration.

Predictions: Crew v. NYRB

The Columbus Crew are up in Harrison, New Jersey to take on the Red Bull. 7:00 PM Columbus Time, 19:00 Quantico, Virginia.

GAME NOTES
• NY home record is stellar. They have not lost at home this year - 9 Win, 3 Draw.
• NY have won last 4 at home. 8 Goals For, 2 Against. Have shutout 3 opponents.
• Crew 2W, 1D, 2L in last 5 on the road
• Crew outscored 7 goals to 6 in last 5 road games
• Both teams coming off extended breaks, rested

PREDICTIONS
"The off week last week will help Columbus but I just like the Red Bulls at home too much in this one." Drew Epperley, WV Hooligan.

NY fans confident over at Goal.com, 76% favor the Red Bulls to win with a likely 2:1 scoreline.

Over at the betting sites we see that NY is favored across the board. Bet365 has NY at 4/5 odds and only 8% picking a Crew victory on WinDrawWin (that's about as low as I've seen it for any team).

Can't find the MLSsoccer.com "Pick 'em" feature for this week.

It's almost 8 AM as I type this and my Dispatch isn't at my door, so nothing from Adam Jardy today either. However, you should check out his work last week on Will Hesmer. It's not exactly motivating. Particularly for the players still on the roster from 2008. It's really great to see news like that though, an independent voice. The Crew (as a franchise) are very insulated by long tenured coaches, folks in front offices and extended media. Even the move from Ohio News Network to Fox Sports Ohio couldn't break this insulation.

Jardy's work on Hesmer will be a touchstone to this season and will linger through the start of next, for sure.

I am looking for the illustration credit for this image, unable to find it. It deserves credit, please email me at ljbaby654 @ gmail.com if you have any info on it.

MY PICK
New York. It's odd that it's tilting so much their way though. My reasoning for picking NY is more to do with their near perfect home form and the Crew's inability to shut anyone out over the last 9 games. The wins have come but the Crew have faced some real bottom dwellers recently; NE twice, TFC and PHI in that time.

Looking at the Defense: Putting Milovan Mirosevic beside Chris Birchall in central defense will not keep NY from scoring. It'd be wise to put Danny O'Rourke in that spot or Cole Grossman or even Eric Gehrig. The Crew should also move Josh Williams back to the middle along side Chad Marshall if they want to have a shot at keeping 2 goals from going past Andy Gruenebaum.

Up top; I think Jairo Arrieta is carrying a more serious injury to his ankle then he lets on. So keep an eye on that.

It's going to be a tough one for Columbus today. Legs will be live with energy after the break and temps will be cool so, if anything, this one will be fun.

You never know, maybe Jersey natives Eddie Gaven and Dilly Duka have some magic for the Crew fans today.

Prediction: Crew v. Union

The Crew travel to Philadelphia to take on the Union for another mid-week matchup. Wednesday, August 28th, 2012. 8:00 PM EST.

NOTES
• Two consecutive wins for the Crew have lightened the playoff weight a bit for the club but they still need around 18 points from remaining 10 games.
• Crew have 2 players in outstanding form, Federico Hiquain and Jairo Arrieta. It will be the first 90 minute Away test for them playing together.
• Philadelphia not mathematically eliminated from playoffs but they are likely out.
• PHI recent Home form very good. Last 6 matches at PPL: 12 goals for and only 4 against. 4 W, 1 D, 1 L
• Last time these two met in Philly was April 4th 2012. It was an early season hack fest (I couldn't even finish the game recap) that PHI ended up winning 1:0... also featured Chad Marshall blessing out the ref right next to a live microphone after the match.

EARLY PREDICTIONS
The betting lines are a little mixed for this one with a slight lean PHI. Bet365 has tilt towards PHI 13/10 (fav), 9/4 (draw), 21/10 Crew. None of it looks all that convincing though.

The fan voting over at WinDrawWin is heavy on the Crew. 45% win, with 25% responding Draw. That’s a 70% vote that the Crew should pull at least a point. This is a little unusual.

MY PREDICTION
Columbus is in the middle of a favorable stretch of games against below average teams. Philly, especially at home, is a better side then both Toronto and New England but only just. Even though they surged mid-season, they are also a club trying to find themselves since the ugly divorce with Piotr Nowak earlier this year.

A mid-week matchup is probably the best way to face the Union at home but the Crew are in the middle of a crowded schedule. I have already called this one a draw (I’ve already called the next 5 games) and I’ll stick to that. 1:1 is how I think it will fall tomorrow night.

Some concerns going into this one for the Crew are the switch back to the diamond midfield. I’m fully confident that Danny O’Rourke can play that spot but at what cost? That formation also calls for the right and left backs to turn into wing backs, which is a lot of running for both Josh Williams and Sebastian Miranda.

If the Crew wants to stick with the 4-1-3-2 and Vukovic is ready to go at LB, I think they should move Williams to the middle (to replace the injured Mendes) alongside Marshall. Also, with this formation, I would like to see Eddie Gaven or Higuain in the CAM roll over Mirosevic (too many goals against when he plays that position in this formation). It might be a good idea for the Crew to go to the 4-2-3-1 primary.

Still, no matter how I slice the lineup, it is a very winnable game for Columbus. The schedule gets slightly harder after this one and with the Crew still needing about 5 wins in the remaining 10 - they should definitely go for this one.