Viana Tackle

Neither of these guys are winning any track meets but that is an excellent tackle on Jeremy Brockie by Agustin Viana earlier this year.

After playing off and on as a holding midfielder (more of a secondary position for him), Viana settled in very well to his LB roll this past year where he proved he has above average technical skill and excellent decision making ability in defense.

The Columbus Crew are bringing him back for 2014. It depends a bit on what type of formation new head man Gregg Berhalter wants to play but I would expect Viana to be a regular starter for the 2014 Crew.

Final Crew Player Rankings

Summarizing an entire season in one score is unfair to any individual player but it can tell a story.

Below is how things played out for each Crew player according to the only four player rating models that I know exist. HELLTOWN (me), WHOSCORED.COM (they hammer away at Opta data), CASTROL (they go their own way), FANTASY (MLS fantasy scoring, a rating is a rating).

So, there it is. Why is this not greeted with more fanfare? Maybe a giant post at Massive Report or even petition On the Fire to do it? Because it is basically a list of top minute earners to least.

For me, personally, this is something I noticed the first year I started tracking. The better players get to play more. So much is dictated by the coaches and the league. It's not so much the players ability that is being judged here but more the player's ability to fit into the league system that the play in.

Peel back another layer and you get to the place where Major League Soccer's competitive structure can be so frustrating. In this sport, above all others, good players need other good players to truly rise above the scrapheap of mediocrity (which is sold as parity in the United States).

Food for thought and all that.

Oduro, Gruenebaum, Williams Returning?

Gregg Berhalter's press conference was the big Crew news of the day but there was something that Mark McCullers said that is much bigger news to me.

In today's Covering the Crew, Adam Jardy brings up that Dominic Oduro, Andy Gruenebaum and Josh Williams are about to be without a MLS contract. Along with Bernardo Anor, these are the three guys that have the most question marks surrounding their futures.

From Jardy's Dispatch blog:

"McCullers said Berhalter has been handling the ongoing negotiations with the trio and that he feels each will return to the Crew next season."

I sort of did a double take on this little bit of information. I'm sure that Berhalter would rather not anyone in the organization say anything about any player. Let alone the guy that Anthony Precourt made a point to pry off roster decisions.

Oduro, Gruenebaum and Williams made up about $290k to the cap in 2013. Two of them, Oduro and Williams, are likely working on larger deals.

To keep Oduro it will likely take around $200k and Williams is probably seeking about double ($100 to 130k). Gruenebaum would probably move on to the next standard veteran contract, whatever that is (130-150k maybe).

It turns three players at $290k in 2013 to $450k in 2014.

This affects next year's roster a great deal and something I know Berhalter and Precourt have barely started looking at.

Final 2013 Crew KRAMB Scores

Kramb is a measurement / valuation I've been keeping track of over the past few years that helps tell me who is contributing to the success or failure of the side.

What it does is take an individual player's record when starting (PPG) and on pitch goal difference (GD) above or below team average. It looks like this:

KRAMB = (PLAYER PPG - TEAM PPG) + (PLAYER GD - TEAM GD)

Example:

0.04 : Tyson Wahl (1.21 - 1.21) + (-0.04 - -0.08)

The TEAM here is all the starters. TEAM GD of -0.08 is that of the starters only, compared to -0.12 overall team GD on the year. The drop indicates that subs lost ground (I'll look at that some other time)

Tyson is a good example because he is the replacement level player on the team. 12 players finished above him, 12 below. Here is the complete list, I'll use a five start minimum. At the bottom will be the lower start guys.

KRAMB : NAME : GAMES STARTED
+0.77 : Eddie Gaven 10
+0.56 : Matt Lampson 13
+0.37 : Agustín Viana 20
+0.31 : Justin Meram 9
+0.29 : Bernardo Anor 19
+0.25 : Tony Tchani 13
+0.13 : Dominic Oduro 34
+0.11 : Federico Higuaín 29
+0.10 : Gláuber Berti 13
+0.09 : Chad Barson 18
+0.07 : Chad Marshall 30
+0.04 : Tyson Wahl 24
-0.13 : Wil Trapp 16
-0.13 : Aaron Schoenfeld 3
-0.17 : Joshua Williams 25
-0.18 : Jairo Obando Arrieta 21
-0.30 : Eric Gehrig 6
-0.34 : Danny O´Rourke 19
-0.42 : Andy Gruenebaum 21
-0.53 : Ben Speas 10
-0.83 : Matías Sánchez 10

(not enough games)
-0.13 : Konrad Warzycha 2
-0.46 : Ethan Finlay 3
-0.80 : Ryan Finley 3
-1.46 : Kevan George 3

I'll split it out now, starting with PPG (split will be at replacement level):

PPG to REPLACEMENT : NAME : STARTS
0.41 : Matt Lampson 13
0.35 : Justin Meram 9
0.29 : Eddie Gaven 10
0.29 : Konrad Warzycha 2
0.18 : Chad Barson 18
0.14 : Agustín Viana 20
0.12 : Eric Gehrig 6
0.10 : Wil Trapp 16
0.10 : Federico Higuaín 29
0.10 : Tony Tchani 13
0.05 : Bernardo Anor 19

0.02 : Gláuber Berti 13
0.00 : Tyson Wahl 24
0.00 : Dominic Oduro 34

-0.01 : Chad Marshall 30
-0.09 : Joshua Williams 25
-0.11 : Jairo Obando Arrieta 21
-0.21 : Aaron Schoenfeld 3
-0.21 : Ethan Finlay 3
-0.21 : Ryan Finley 3
-0.26 : Andy Gruenebaum 21
-0.26 : Danny O´Rourke 19
-0.31 : Ben Speas 10
-0.41 : Matías Sánchez 10
-0.88 : Kevan George 3

...and here's Goal Difference above/below replacement

GD to REPLACEMENT : NAME : STARTS
+0.48 : Eddie Gaven 10
+0.24 : Bernardo Anor 19
+0.23 : Agustín Viana 20
+0.16 : Matt Lampson 13
+0.16 : Tony Tchani 13
+0.14 : Dominic Oduro 34
+0.08 : Gláuber Berti 13
+0.08 : Chad Marshall 30
+0.08 : Aaron Schoenfeld 3
+0.04 : Tyson Wahl 24
+0.01 : Federico Higuaín 29

-0.03 : Justin Meram 9
-0.06 : Jairo Obando Arrieta 21
-0.08 : Danny O´Rourke 19

-0.08 : Joshua Williams 25
-0.09 : Chad Barson 18
-0.16 : Andy Gruenebaum 21
-0.22 : Ben Speas 10
-0.23 : Wil Trapp 16
-0.25 : Ethan Finlay 3
-0.42 : Konrad Warzycha 2
-0.42 : Eric Gehrig 6
-0.42 : Matías Sánchez 10
-0.59 : Ryan Finley 3
-0.59 : Kevan George 3

Something that sticks out is the where a player falls on each list. This points to substitution patterns in most, but not all, cases. Next list will be the difference between (absolute value) the player's spot on each list.

ABS : NAME STARTS
18 : Konrad Warzycha 2
14 : Eric Gehrig 6
11 : Aaron Schoenfeld 3
11 : Chad Barson 18
11 : Wil Trapp 16
10 : Justin Meram 9
9 : Bernardo Anor 19
8 : Danny O´Rourke 19
8 : Dominic Oduro 34
7 : Chad Marshall 30
5 : Ben Speas 10

5 : Tony Tchani 13
4 : Andy Gruenebaum 21
4 : Jairo Obando Arrieta 21

4 : Ryan Finley 3
3 : Agustín Viana 20
3 : Gláuber Berti 13
3 : Matt Lampson 13
3 : Tyson Wahl 24
2 : Eddie Gaven 10
2 : Federico Higuaín 29
1 : Ethan Finlay 3
1 : Joshua Williams 25
1 : Matías Sánchez 10
0 : Kevan George 3

The guys toward the top aren't matching up. In Konrad's case it is more of a function of having only 2 starts.

Chad Barson is a good one to look at. He ended up 5th in PPG but 16th in GD. What this means is that the team scored after he was subbed out (which happened in Dallas late in the year). He got the win but was not part of the goal.

Fine margins, for sure, but it points to the enormity of a goal in this sport. A goal prevented here, another scored there... it's not just the difference in a single game but the difference between making the playoffs or not in MLS, particularly this year.

-----------------

OPPONENT DIFFICULTY

This measurement is just one way to look at things but it is something I find valuable and helps me to ask questions that lead down paths of better understanding of the team.

The largest, most direct path being the difficulty of opponent each starter faced. For example, Glauber ended up facing the easiest competition overall with an average opponent difficulty of 12.7 on the overall combined table.

Breaking Glauber's starts further tells us that 6 of his 13 total starts were against bottom 5 competition.

If you look at the ratio between a player's starts against top 5 and bottom five I see that Lampson, Barson, Anor, Trapp had the most difficult opponents.

For the guys with only a few starts, Kevan George sticks out. His only three starts were against top five teams. Talk about a tough row to hoe; New York, Sporting, LA.

Anyhow, assessing the difficulty of opponents is also affected by where the game is played (even what time it is played).

Gaven overall had easier opponents (only two in top 5) but 6 of his ten games were away. Guys like Anor (11/19 at home), Arrieta (12/21), Trapp (9/16) and Barson (10/18) benefited from home cookin'.

One callout here is Matias Sanchez who was like Gaven in that 6 of his 10 games were on the road (Viana also). Very difficult to get a decent GD this way.

So you can see that there are many ways to look at it.

=================

I call it KRAMB after Ryan Kramb (PhD, MS, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, BS University of Dayton) who once asked questions about such wild things.

More to come on this topic over at Massive Report so stay tuned!

Thanks for reading.

If you have any questions you can email me at ljbaby654@gmail.com or find me on twitter @helltownbeer.

Reviewing My Preseason Crew Prediction

Way back on March 2nd of this year I contributed to a post at Massive Report that outlined Crew season predictions.

Pretty basic stuff. Record, Expectations, MVP, Biggest Surprise, Biggest Disappointment.

Indented in teal will be what I wrote and underneath will be comments on what actually happened.

--------------------------------
PREDICTION, TEAM LINE

15W, 4D, 15L (49 pts, 6th in East -3 Goal Diff)

Did pretty well here. I think I would have been closer were it not for Eddie Gaven going down. I don't think Glauber staying healthy would have added much above replacement. My Goal Diff was almost dead on (-4 was actual).

...ON SEASON EXPECTATIONS

How the season plays out: The Crew will appear hot and cold this year because they will be able to handle lesser teams regularly but struggle with clubs equal to or better.

This was more or less true. Not hard to be wrong here. Teams always struggle with better competition. Lesson learned.

Over the past 3 years the Crew tend to start slow, do well in the middle and taper off at the end. Looking over the way the schedule is laid out there is no reason to think that will change this year (though, the Crew really have an opportunity to come charging out of the gates with 3 wins).

This wasn't that hard to predict. Under this Crew regime, it's same old song. Don't want to get into next year if they keep Bliss and Lapper but, well.. same regime. Not necessarily a bad thing, however.

I think that the Crew will fly up the table in June/July, possibly climbing to as high as 2nd or 3rd but struggle greatly late August and September. The Sept 14 (MTL), 21 (CHI) and 29 (FCD) games will likely be must wins to make the playoffs.

I was wrong about moving up the table. While they were higher they didn't really grab hold of anything. Those games in September were fairly key but the team was pretty out of by then.

...TEAM MVP

MVP: Higuain. There really isn't another choice here right now, the attack is dependent on him and he has the talent to deliver. I think Williams and Arrieta have a shot at as well.

Well, Higuain was right. Arrieta different story but I felt he was more due to poor man management.

...SURPRISES

Biggest Surprise: Change(s) amongst the assistant coaching / technical staff during the season - also, Eric Wynalda will address speculation about coming to Columbus during the USA v. MEX qualifier.

Ah, Duncan. Even deep down in my cold analytic heart did this hurt. The Wynalda thing sort of kicked in to gear and a fake twitter account of his addressed it. I'll give myself a check for that.

Biggest Disappointment: Overreacting / correcting. Crew will play games safe with 2 DMs and struggle to score goals - than experiment with just one to try and chase goals - then go back to starting 2 different DMs. Rinse - repeat.

This last one sort of makes me angry because it is exactly what happened and it was so predictable. I have on idea why adjustments were not made to improve this philosophy. It's puzzling, really.
--------------------------------

I'm fairly pleased with my prediction. Looking forward to doing this again in a few months. Quick Preview: this franchise will finish around the same spot next year unless drastic improvements are made.

Lots to happen between now and then, however. We'll see.

With Injured Gaven Photo Comes a Story

On May 29th 2013 the Crew were facing USL Pro side Dayton Dutch Lions for the 2nd straight year in a row in front of a few hundred folks.

Since the Crew had been knocked out the previous year by them Robert Warzycha and company decided it was important to field a very strong side that featured Federico Higuain, Danny O'Rourke and Eddie Gaven.

This was an exciting match for me as I had been watching a lot of the Lions before this game. Dayton had to play a couple USOC games just to get to this point and were starting to find some form.

In fact the Lions had already taken on the Crew not long before in Dayton for a Reserve match. That game was hotly contested so I expected a good one for the USOC.

The Crew ended up dominating most of the first half and not long into the second Eddie Gaven scored off a beautiful assist from Higuain to put the Crew up 1-0.



I think Warzycha thought this game was won by that point, so he took Higuain off the pitch to keep him from getting injured.

What happened as Higuain was jogging off I will never forget.

He took a detour and found Eddie and forceably applied the captains armband on him. He must have tried this before because it wasn't a hand off it was grabbing Eddies arm and looping it in. Higuain would then give a couple claps to the crowd and jog off.

Eddie, in true Eddie form, would drop his head and quickly slide off the armband and take it over to a nearby Danny O'Rourke. Danny didn't seem to hesitate in accepting it, almost like he expected it from Gaven.

Shortly before the game ended Eddie was chopped down, no foul was called but he tore his ACL.

The picture of Danny over Eddie reminds me of this exchange because you can see the captains armband sort of half put on, comforting Eddie.

No doubt a sad moment captured forever but it will always remind me of the armband exchange which has quickly become a favorite Gaven memory.

This is the type of player that he was, the kind of person he is. Wishing him the best in his post soccer career.

========
The top photo is one I took before the game started and the bottom one of an injured Gaven was taken by Greg Bartram-USA TODAY Sports but with my liberal use of filters, cause I'm addicted to them right now.

Gaven Retired Today

In a surprising announcement, Eddie Gaven retired from professional soccer today. I wrote about it here.

I'm trying to digest the news at the moment. Eddie has been a larger than life MLS figure for over a decade, much of that here in Columbus. He will be missed.

----------
Hey Precourt, big Crew news today. A MLS legend retired just now > Let's do something besides talking about superficial changes. Thanks.

MR Post: In, Out or the Space Between

Patrick and I ran up and down the roster looking at which players will / will not be back next year. We are always looking at the team and the future but a lot of it doesn't make it to MR. This was an attempt to get things out before they changed during a busy off season (highlighted by the fact that Sanchez and Horton were let go in the middle making the post).

Crew not wasting time. Part of this feels rushed on the business side of the Crew for whatever reason. Shouldn't they have a coach before doing this? Anyhow, check out the post. It'll be interesting to see how things look in a month's time.

In, Out or Somewhere Between

...or These fickle, fuddled words confuse me, Like... Will it sort of came back to me because a long lost Luscious Jackson is putting it out there again but drives memories from a crummy video to one of my favorite songs from a generation ago. If I could go back in time and somehow change time, I'd make it so I could see this song live, Long Island-ish. If memory serves I did see them at RFK or 9:30 in DC... Or was it in Hampton Roads? Richmond? Fuzzy. Either way; That beat.. gah.

The Revs goal vs Crew was nice

The kid behind the goal really liked it. Another thing I like about this is the time of day and time of year. Really great shadows in the fall, see it a lot in NFL games (well, the outdoor ones). This time of year feels very more like soccer to me. Speaking of which...

I took a bunch of pics at the game it was so nice. Here is one of the Nordecke before the game:

Predictions: Crew (H) v Revs

New England is in Columbus today to try and extend their season into the MLS Cup Playoffs. Whistle blows at 4:00 PM EST.

GAME NOTES:
CLB: Reports - Gruenebaum likely getting start over Lampson
CLB: Josh Williams might play as well.
CLB: Crew have played well at home as of late after bad start
NER: A win extends season
NER: Have Nguyen back after suspension
NER: 8 pts in last 6 way, -2 GD isn't bad

------------
PREDICTIONS
------------

1. BET365 ... NEW ENGLAND
I do believe this is the first time the away side has been favored at Crew Stadium this year. Revs getting 6/4 odds. Crew 9/5 (draw 23/10)

2. HOME TEAM ... COLUMBUS
Just picking the home team is right most of the time, especially in MLS this year.

3. GOAL.COM ... COLUMBUS (?)
No write up from the guys at goal.com this week. The 'reader's predictions' has the Crew at 60% picked. We'll have to go with that.

4. MASSIVE REPORT ... DRAW
Managing Editor Patrick Guldan thinks this going to be a tight 1-1 draw. "The game likely won't be as open as the stakes are lower and will be played on grass."

5. COLUMBUS DISPATCH ... NEW ENGLAND
Man in Japan Adam Jardy thinks the Revs are the team to beat today. Playoffs vs Pride basically. "Whether or not [pride] will be enough to end a disappointing season on a high note remains to be seen." Go pick up a Dispatch anywhere around town. Jardy also has a good piece on three player contracts up in the air.

6. WHOSCORED.COM ... NEW ENGLAND
Appears Graham Ruthven has sort of checked up like the folks at goal.com. He likes the Revs 2:1 but notes that the Crew are out of "Western Conference" playoff hunt.

7. TABLE POSITION ... NEW ENGLAND
Ball don't lie.

8. WIN DRAW WIN ... NEW ENGLAND
Looks like the betting masses like a 0-1 Away win. "Your Votes" is going Revs as well with 42% (Crew 25%). Pretty tight though.

9. MLSSOCCER.COM ... NEW ENGLAND
Three of these folks going Revs, one Crew. Last two like the draw. So, mixed feelings on this one here. Bourbon hater ("a children's drink") Matt Doyle is still the lead dog over there with a 49% hit rate. Nick Rosano not far behind at 38%.

10. WV HOOLIGAN ... COLUMBUS
"Too many players there playing for 2014 and for their jobs not to get it done." - Drew Epperley. I'll have more on this right below in the "My Thoughts" section.

-------------
MY THOUGHTS ON THE GAME

Last games can often be frustrating affairs when your team isn't going any further. This year is no different.

Also, last games can be telling affairs though and most of the things I see in regards to this match are frustrating. Here is a list:

1. Starting Andy Gruenebaum. Andy should have gotten his job back as soon as he was able. If he didn't want it then send him home for the rest of the year. Instead, we have this horseshit situation where the Crew are trotting him out for what is likely his last game. He hasn't played in months. Lampson has been lights out at home, an amazing 5 shutouts in 7.

2. "Fighting for Jobs". If one game is going to make a break a player in this sport than the Crew have some serious problems. We hear this sort of sports jargon a lot. In the N.F.L. it sort of makes some since as they play so few games and the likelihood of getting maimed is high. It has no place in soccer. The fact that WV Hooligan mentions it is disappointing but I know a lot of decision makers in MLS do this. Grr.

3. Josh Williams. Josh is another one getting trotted out today. His doesn't quite feel like Gruenebaums in that it is his last game but it does feel a little fishy. There is a high degree of difficulty to this game today. I'm sure Josh is chomping at the bit to face this type of situation but there is a high percentage chance that the Crew lose this one, therefore damaging his leverage at the table to renegotiate contract. And if he makes a mistake on a goal than I have to hear a bunch of people I respect telling me that he should be cut based on what they saw last. Williams is an MLS starter, he still has upside and his soft skills are off the charts.

4. Nobody in place to make personnel decisions. Well, Mark McCullers is there but after the last three off-seasons he has proven to be incompetent at this part of his job. Last season, in particular, was terrible. Notably: They cut Miranda and Mirosevic just decided he wasn't coming back (after the Crew spent loads of time saying otherwise). Carlos Mendes was another one who just sort of drifted off to the NY Cosmos (where he has played very well). In the case of both these players the Crew overspent to replace them.

5. Out of race since Toronto. The Crew have been out of this season since the loss up in Toronto. Change should have been made then and the process of building for 2014 should have started. This impotent chase for the playoffs over the last couple months only shortened the window to prepare for next year. Pre-season starts mid-January and the Crew are going to be, again, short on warm bodies. I remember Eddie Gaven saying last year that he felt they were missing players in the preseason. I expect it again this year.

16 OUT OF 19

This team has fallen down the table each year since 2008. Losing only a little bit at first but now is in complete terminal velocity free fall and I've seen nothing in the way of change to keep me from thinking that the bottom of the table the only way of stopping the Crew from getting worse.

Alright, that's what I've got for now. If I can't unleash for the last game then when can I? It's a very grumpy post but I lean heavily on the side of performance (over just enjoying a day at the stadium). With that I get all worked up when a team tells me it's sunny when it's raining outside.

MR Post on Key Passes, More Info

I put together a look at two stats that tend to point towards productive attacking activity in "Key Passes" (shot assist) and Shots on Goal for Massive Report this week. Key Passes is something that is getting more attention as time goes by, especially in MLS where finishing from open play can be elusive.

Here's the post: Makers, Takers and The Hunt for Goals

For key passes I built it up from game by game totals instead of just looking at the cumulative Opta stats because I know that, at least for the Crew, some games are missing. To fill in I had to go to the MLS 'chalkboard'.

Anyhow, here are the top 20 performances as far as Key Passes (KPs) match to match.

Total KPs : Name : Round : Opponent
8 : Will Trapp : 26 : SEA
7 : Federico Higuaín : 13 : HOU
7 : Federico Higuaín : 15 : MTL
7 : Federico Higuaín : 16 : CHI
7 : Federico Higuaín : 19 : PDX
7 : Federico Higuaín : 23 : NY
6 : Federico Higuaín : 10 : COL
6 : Federico Higuaín : 20 : NER
6 : Federico Higuaín : 24 : TFC
5 : Federico Higuaín : 4 : DCU
5 : Federico Higuaín : 6 : MTL
5 : Federico Higuaín : 9 : NY
5 : Federico Higuaín : 11 : TFC
5 : Federico Higuaín : 32 : SKC
4 : Jairo Arrieta : 13 : HOU
4 : Federico Higuaín : 14 : PHI
4 : Aaron Schoenfeld : 14 : PHI
4 : Justin Meram : 27 : HOU
4 : Ethan Finlay : 27 : HOU
4 : Federico Higuaín : 29 : MTL

Trapp's Seattle performance is notable but it also should be remembered as the one where the Sounders went down a man and still beat the Crew. It was a very strange match. Robert Warzycha would be let go not long after. Trapp didn't record more than 2 KPs in any other match.

Higuain shouldn't be much of a surprise but does bring to mind a conversation we had with Major League Soccer contributor Simon Borg on the Massive Report podcast. Simon mentioned sitting Higuain in order for the team to shake out of a slump they were in. There is a lot of sense to that as I don't think Higuain is a player that most coaches, technical directors or GMs in MLS quite understand. I dunno, it's complicated I guess. Larger conversation for a rainy day.

Part of me is just trying to comprehend, appreciate and downright savor the fact that a player like Federico Higuain is in Columbus.

Crew Rd 33, Nothing to Lose (or Gain)

In somewhat symbolically mix-matched uniforms the Columbus Crew go for broke away in New England and lose 3:2.

GAME NOTE
I was out of town visiting family in Virginia this week. Both to see them and to take in the beautiful scenery my home state has to offer. My perspective is a little different for this one.

----------
1ST HALF

The first time I watched this game I was in Harrisonburg, VA with my brother and his family. While spending the afternoon there my niece made me what's in the picture on the left (my favorite thing of the 2013 Crew season).

Going through it the second time was about the same as the first. Right off the bat the Crew played exactly the same as they have so many times this year. Overly active and looking for a lucky bounce or through ball to get the up in the opening 10-20 minutes.

High pressure, chasing the ball, looking for through ball opportunities. It was all very familiar. What's also familiar is when they don't get one early they struggle later on in the match.

Around the 30th minute, when the game was being controlled by NE, Ethan Finlay had a bad touch and subsequently made bad challenge after a string of bad challenges by a desperate Crew side.

This opened up a good opportunity on the corner of the Crew's 18 yard box. New England took advantage and scored.

2ND HALF
Brian Bliss pulled Ethan Finlay for the Crew's only big attacking target in Aaron Schoenfeld.

After wrestling control of the match from the Revs in the first 10 minutes of the second half the Crew got a few good bounces. One off Wil Trapp that fell to Schoenfeld who pushed it over to Dominic Oduro who put it away to tie it up 1:1.

This really started off some craziness. Shortly after the Revs started pressing again and earned a penalty off some chippy play in the box. Tony Tchani was sloppy and hacked a Revs player down. Chris Tierney finished off the penalty.

The Crew responded as Aaron Schoenfeld gathered nicely just inside the box and finished on the turn with his left foot in the upper corner on of the net.

Seemingly surprised, the Revs responded quickly and Diego Fagundez found another goal for the Revs off a cross from Andy Dorman.

NE coach Jay Heaps would go ahead and make a couple of defensive subs in Kevin Alston and Stephen McCarthy to put away the game. It could be argued he should have done this earlier but, regardless. This ended the match in his favor.

-----------
GAME OVER, FINAL THOUGHTS
• I've seen Aaron Schoenfeld play a lot of the past couple years. Mostly in reserve matches. I've seen him play pretty well but never have I seen him hold up and turn for a goal like he did in this game. Really great and happy for him and his family.

• The turf at Gillette will forever bother me. My theory is that the the Football God's, both types of the game, have forsaken their tenents. Did you know the Patriots haven't won a Super Bowl since switching? All the money that team pulls in and they can't play on a natural surface? THE FOOTBALL GODS DOTH SMITE YOU.

• The Crew were 'mathematically eliminated' from playoff contention after this game. It didn't matter if they won or lost, it turned out.

• The Crew have been statistically eliminated for some time. They should have approached the last couple months of the season with this in mind. Hanging on to hope left this team with Tyson Wahl at CB and Chad Barson at RB. It also kept Tony Tchani in the starting lineup and Dominic Oduro playing in a right mid spot where opposing teams seemed to find goals. Challenges for the Crew await over the next few months.

• Despite being subbed off, Agustin Viana was awarded the Man of the Match star from WhoScored.com. This is something I follow, so should you. It's objective and that is very, very rare in MLS.

• Did I mention I was in God's country this weekend? Here's what that looks like from my folks front porch:

• Recharged and happy to be back in Columbus. Ready to take on the last game of the year and a fun off season!

Crew Player Values

One of the things I've kept track of over the past couple years is player salaries in relationship to my own rankings. Now that there are other rankings out there I can get a little more crazy with it and even separate it out by specific position. With Opta data I could even get into best CB or LW or whatever (if time permitted).

Didn't get that far but did get into how players fared against other players in their general position based on my rating system, WhoScored, Castrol and the fantasy system MLS uses. Pretty much all the rating systems that exist for MLS players.

I think if I were an MLS team I would roll this into previous seasons to get a truer market value but one season will have to do for me for now.

Go check it out over at Massive Report.

The North and South Difference

There were a couple of tweets by Crew beat writer Adam Jardy in the middle of summer that stuck with me all this time so I'm posting them up. Both of them included a photo of Crew players hanging out after practice. Top is three US players and the bottom is of two Argentinians.

One of the reasons these photos linger with me is because they were taken during a difficult spell for the franchise. The six games they played between June 22 and July 27 the Columbus Crew had one win and 5 losses.

Nobody is doing anything wrong in the photos as I know that the guys in the top photo have stayed after practice often to work on soccer things and are just keeping it loose.

It is just interesting to me and my simple brain and highlights differences.

Dear Prudence, What to do with Bliss

Dug about as far in to the Brian Bliss situation as I want to go right now for Massive Report.

Unreasonable Expectations

One thing I realized is that it gets real sticky real fast. So so many things need repairing outside of the coaching staff, trainers and players first (General Manager is probably good place to start).

After looking at it I decided that Bliss wasn't given enough time in order to make a solid decision, which is unfortunate because he could have been given enough time and the FO could have made a sound decision.

There really wasn't any reason to not make the move sooner. Instead we got a misguided move based around making an impossible run at the playoffs.

I think I may come off in support of Bliss in that piece and in a way, I am. But it has more to do with circumstance.

The Crew might have sold some tickets on the promise of playoffs (which to me was more like that Bain prison hole in the last Christopher Nolan Batman movie) but they sacrificed a great opportunity to evaluate a potential coach and many players.

Anywho, like I said; Sticky.

Crew Rd 32, KC Shut Crew Down

Sporting KC abruptly end the Crew hot streak in Columbus (photo: Sam Fahmi, Massive Report).

1ST HALF
Both sides started off in a test type mode trying to figure out the other side. Sporting proved to be the more evolved team and figured it out first.

After a quarter hour of KC went up of a Graham Zusi cross to Ike Opera right in the six yard box. Agustin Viana was laying on the ground with an apparent injury but camera angles would later show him peaking up to check the play.

The quality of Zusi's cross ultimately made Viana's decision to stay down look bad. Bad play by Viana (he popped up after the goal) but a goal was deserved as KC found plenty of space behind Trapp and Tchani all half.

2ND HALF
Coming out of the locker room Sporting dropped eight back and stayed disciplined. It was very similar to how Seattle beat the Crew with 10 men about a month ago.

Because of their style, Columbus has no answer for team with a defensive posture. Dominic Oduro had no space to break free and Federico Higuain was jammed in the middle.

The Crew ended up only getting two total shots off from open play all game. The other 10 shots came from set pieces.

The game ended with an exhausted and frustrated Crew side.

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GAME OVER, THOUGHTS

• Sporting played the Crew smartly as Columbus basically has only two cards to play in attack:

1. Through balls that get behind the defense (Oduro's speed)
2. Set Pieces

• KC took care of both of those things. They shut the Crew down almost in total.

• Tchani and Trapp were playing on top of each other all night. This comes after three games were they kept good spacing in holding roles. This was more do to the way KC played and them not knowing how to work around it.

• Nobody on the Crew played terrible, KC just are better at more things.

• Federico Higuain seemed to pick up an injury early on but stayed in the game and slowed him.

• To many it might appear simple what KC did to the Crew but it always amazes me how many teams do not prepare for each opponent. KC prepared and executed. It should be appreciated.

• Columbus only has a week off than two matches against NE to finish up the schedule.

The offseason has basically started for this team.

Predictions: Crew (H) v Sporting

Big game at Crew Stadium tonight, Sporting KC is in town. Whistle blows at 7:30 PM EST, 6:30 PM Central.

GAME NOTES
CLB: Same lineup as previous 3 likely
CLB: Hot streak, have won last three
CLB: Recent results: have shutout NY, TFC, HOU, CHI at home
SKC: Oriol Rosell is out, Red Card
SKC: Decent results last 6, even GD 9 pts
SKC: Looking to catch NY for top spot in East

PREDICTIONS
(in no particular order)

1. COLUMBUS DISPATCH ... COLUMBUS CREW
"Something about the timing and location of this game points to an upset in the making," writes team beat writer Adam Jardy.

2. HOME TEAM ... COLUMBUS CREW

3. BET 365 ... COLUMBUS CREW
Home team favorites at 31/20 but a little unusual that it isn't even (which has been the trend in MLS for home teams). Next most likely is SKC win 7/4 and draw 9/4.

4. WV HOOLIGAN ... DRAW
Site Editor and Writer Drew Epperley has a hunch... "This one feels like a draw to me for some reason." has it at 1-1.

5. GOAL.COM ... DRAW
No preview yet, which is strange for this site. Reader prediction has this as a draw.

6. TABLE POSITION ... SPORTING KC

7. WIN DRAW WIN ... DRAW
Looks pretty tight. Stake is on 1-1 and home side getting less than 50% (41% Crew, 33% draw). Crew slight favorite but close enough to call this even.

8. MLSSOCCER.COM ... COLUMBUS CREW
Contributors to the "Pick 'em" feature at the virtual home base of MLS are jumping on the Crew bandwagon. Four of the six picking Crew and the other two say draw.

9. MASSIVE REPORT ... DRAW
Patrick Guldan thinks one of the important things for the Crew will be the play of Trapp and Tchani, saying "...the central midfield pair will have to work to move the ball around and unsettle a well drilled." He has this one finishing 1-1.

10. WHOSCORED.COM ... COLUMBUS CREW
Graham Ruthven is a Crew believer now as well. After mentioning how the Crew have perked up in recent weeks, he is all in with them now. Even going as far as saying, "Dominic Oduro and Federico Higuain are among the most potent attackers in the league, and with Sporting KC's backline struggling at the moment the Crew's attacking duo could make the difference."

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MY THOUGHTS, PREDICTION
The Columbus Crew hot streak finds itself back in the friendly confines of Crew Stadium tonight after a wild 4-2 win at Dallas last week.

The indicators above tell us this one will be tight and I tend to agree.

Sporting KC is one of only two teams that can pull out point on the road in MLS this year. Facing a hot team on the road shouldn't phase them too much but this one really comes down to motivations.

Circumstance has got the Crew playing like a teenager hopped up on Mountain Drew right now and they have cut through less motivated teams recently.

Does Sporting have a whole lot to play for here?

They are within range of taking NY for the top spot in the east and also want to maintain a home advantage in the playoffs.

KC has abused the Crew in KC during previous two matches this year so this one is hot team verses good team situation.

Temps look to be a little above normal tonight here in Columbus. High 70s around kickoff. Storms are rolling through trying to flip the switch to fall temps, might be a little damp.

Enjoy the game.

Crew Rd 31, 90s Style MLS Win at Dallas

Columbus put together another away win Sunday as they see off Dallas at Toyota Stadium.

1ST HALF
The Crew took advantage of a eager FC Dallas in the first half by using their speed to get past a attacking minded back four.

Columbus scored in the 9th and 17th minute before Dallas could tuck one away in the 21st. Just before half the Crew put another away on a disorganized, happy-go-lucky home side.

The whirlwind half ended 3-1 in favor of the Crew.

2ND HALF
Much like the first. Dallas was disorganized and pushing forward and playing with very little to lose. The chaos paid of for them in the 54th when a lot of the Crew players thought the ball had gone out and stopped before the whistle. Mauro Alberto Díaz would end up walking the ball into the net (somewhat embarrassingly).

With the game 3-2 both sides decided the buckle down, grinding the free wheeling flow to a mess of subs, fouls and yellow cards.

In fact in the span of 17 minutes between the 66th and 83rd minute this game saw 10 fouls, 5 yellows and 4 substitutions.

by the final few moments of this game you sensed this this one was over. Bernardo Anor would put one last one past a (very poor) Raúl Fernández to end it 4-2.

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FINAL THOUGHTS

This game reminded me of how MLS soccer played in the late 90s. Fast paced, fearless, and pin ball like possession (even between same team).

Dallas played like a collection of above average players with no coach. I'm not sure if they have given up on the season or just are poorly coached, really.

Columbus played with more structure, which is what won them the game. Dallas just didn't seem to want to play any defense, and their keeper... oh my.

All in all, what a crazy game. Flashbacks to my days perched in the RFK stands having flashbacks to the 1998 Tibetan Freedom Concert not to long before on the same grounds.

Predictions: Crew (A) v FC Dallas

Good Morning.

The Columbus Crew travel to Toyota Stadium today to take on FC Dallas. Kickoff time is 8:30 PM EST. 7:30 Central.

GAME NOTES:
CLB: Lineup likely to stay same as last 2 weeks
CLB: On GD, tied worst away form -10 in last 6
CLB: 7 losses in last 8 on the road
FCD: Only lost 1 all year at home
FCD: Lots of speed up top
FCD: In danger of dropping out of playoff hunt

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PREDICTIONS
(in no particular order)

1. WIN DRAW WIN ... FC DALLAS
Leaning pretty heavy here at this aggregate betting site. Wise guys taking stake in a 3-0 Home win and only voting for the Crew 15% on the pretty accurate 'your vote' section.

2. COLUMBUS DISPATCH ... NO LEAN
Adam Jardy, beat writer here in town, doesn't appear to lean either way. Again mentions win makes hopes of making the playoffs more realistic.

3. MLSSOCCER.COM ... FC DALLAS
Four of the six folks on the MLS panel like Dallas. Only one picking Crew to win (Andrew Wiebe, the arch nemesis to any thinking analyst)

4. HOME TEAM ... FC DALLAS

5. WHOSCORED.COM ... DRAW
Graham Ruthven actually gives fans a glimpse of what this game might look like as far as play (a rarity in MLS); "A compact, yet eagerly contested game is expected between these two sides. A draw could be on the cards."

6. WV HOOLIGAN ... FC DALLAS
Drew Epperley (Big D Soccer on SB Nation as well has WVHooligan.com) like Dallas to win this one 2-1. "Columbus has been better under Brian Bliss but I’d argue that they haven’t seen a team that has the speed that Dallas has up front."

7. BET365 ... FC DALLAS
Dallas is basically even (10/11) with a draw next (12/5). Crew getting 3/1 odds in this one.

8. MASSIVE REPORT ... DRAW
Managing editor, Patrick Guldan is sure to mention David Ferreira, saying that he "is Dallas's biggest creative force. Clamping down on him will choke the home team's offense." Patrick thinks this will go down as a 1-1 draw.

9. TABLE POSITION ... FC DALLAS

10. GOAL.COM ... COLUMBUS CREW
Ives Galarcep again with the summary for this one saying "Standing in the Crew's way is an FC Dallas side that is heading in the opposite direction. Consecutive losses, both courtesy of own goals, have put a halt to a promising turnaround for Dallas, which has managed just two wins in 16 matches." I'm going to go ahead and put the Crew down for this one, even though Ives doesn't really lean. The reader pick shows Dallas.

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MY THOUGHTS, PREDICTION
There are precisely two MLS teams that have positive goal difference away from home this year. Just like last week when Chicago traveled to Columbus and got whooped 3-0 it's going to be a tall order for the Crew to get all three points this week down in Texas.

The Crew do have a couple things going for them, however.

1. Team has some pep in the step under Brian Bliss
2. Dallas struggling to win home or away

Dallas is clearly the favorite today but those two things point to a closer match than many might think.

Josh Williams and Andy Gruenebaum, who have been recovering from injury, are probably sitting this one out. Bliss, like Warzycha before him, likes to keep the lineup the same if the team is winning.

I have problems with this. Biggest one is that this philosophy has failed the Crew over the past two years. They have only been able to string a couple wins together two times this year doing this.

You have to plan for each opponent differently. For example. The Crew aren't good on the road. A lot of that has to do with Matt Lampson and his inexperience on the road.

Goals given up with Lampson as starter:
3 : at Houston
4 : at Salt Lake
3 : at Kansas City
1 : at Montreal

That's 11 goals allowed in his last four away starts. I realize this is a team thing but Lampson has looked like a completely different person home vs away. A Gruenebaum start here, even though he has been out for an extended period, might not be a bad idea if he is ready to go. Gruenebaum's motivation will be through the roof.

Despite not getting the results they might like, Dallas has lit up the scoreboard in last three at home (8 goals in last 3). They will be extremely hungry to get goals vs the Crew.

Bliss could take advantage of that if so inclined.

Dallas is fast. Dallas can be frustrating. Dallas is hard to beat at home. This one could have some fireworks in it if the crowd gets in to it (if they are even there, Cowboys playing late afternoon game).

Looks like temps will be in the mid 80s. Enjoy the game.

Crew Rd 30, Take Advantage - Win

The Columbus Crew scored a goal then went up a man early in this one. Come away with a three goal win.

1ST HALF
Very energetic open to this game as both sides seemed impatient. This opened up acres for the Crew on the wings, particularly on the right side.

By only the 11th minute Dominic Oduro found himself some space ripped one past Chicago's GK Sean Johnson. Good one touch from Federico Higuain and Jairo Arrieta on working the ball over to him.

A little over 10 minutes later Arrieta (again finding space) was chopped down by Bakary Soumare with clear path to the goal. It earned him a straight red.

While the rest of the half saw both teams trying to figure out how to play a man up and a man down there was a couple non-calls in the box that went against Chicago.

One was Tony Tchani pulling down Jeff Larentowicz and another was an odd moment were a 2nd ball was on the pitch, the ref went over to get it but let play go on while a Fire player was knocked down from behind on his way to goal.

2ND HALF
With some time to put together a plan both teams contributed to turning this game back into something a little more organized. But Chicago was still giving up way too much space for both Arrieta and Oduro's speed.

In the 70th minute Arrieta got behind the back line and forced a play from GK Johnson where promptly maded contact with the player. Higuain walked up and put away the penalty.

A few minutes later Tony Tchani placed a beautiful ball to Bernardo Anor and put the home side up 3-0.

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GAME OVER
The Crew have played a few games like this one this year were they go up early on ejection. At home fans have seen it with Portland and Seattle. In both cases the Crew looked a little lost for whatever reason.

Yesterday was a little different in that they kept the intensity up. Chicago had their chances that they probably shouldn't have though. They caught the woodwork twice and got off a couple long distance efforts (they ended up getting more shots off than the Crew).

I think Chicago will regret this one badly but it's hard not to feel for them a little because of the wildly inconsistent (and sometimes down right bizarre) officiating.

Whenever I see a game with a bad official I always look for the longtime MLS guys on the team getting shafted. Last night it was Mike Magee. His facial expressions and body language said it all.

Sorry Mike.

Tough to take much out of this game outside the fact that the Crew are winning at home again. Bakary Soumare and some questionable officiating threw a wet blanket on this one.

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Some Crew observations:
• Bliss seems to have repaired some of the Robert Warzycha inflicted emotional damage to Chad Marshall. Ever since Bliss praised him a few weeks ago (going as far as saying he is National Team quality) Marshall is another player.

• Speaking of Warzychas... Konrad Warzycha was not in the 18 for the 2nd round in a row. Since week 8 Konrad has only missed 3 total gameday 18s. The only other one was his father's last game (rd 26 vs Seattle).

• Speas appearance was his first in about a month. Only his 2nd in last 10 games. Bliss said he has been 'mired in a little bit of mediocrity' in a recent interview with the Columbus Dispatch, citing his recent wedding as a possible cause.

• These Bliss comments don't do anything to shake his jock persona. He needs to get away from a former player that is a coach and work towards being a Manager. This is something better teams look for.

• Crew still leading MLS in penalties taken with 9. LA is 2nd with 8 then everybody else is way down the list. I find this strange but very similar to 2011.

• Just like in 2011, Red Cards and penalties are hiding some problems that need addressed.

• Bernardo Anor had a quiet but effective game.

• WhoScored.com listed Tony Tchani as man of the match. He's another one that is thriving under new leadership.

• Crew remain in 8th place after this win. Next week they travel to Dallas to play an out of conference game.