Weaker Crew Opposition Drive Updated KRAMB

KRAMB = Points per Game + Goal Difference earned as a starter

It's been a few months since I updated this measurement that Ryan Kramb (M.S., PhD, Chemical Engineering) and I worked out last year, so here it is. The way it works is, well, the bigger the number the better!

PPG+GD : Player, Games Started
2.13 : Tyson Wahl, 8
2.00 : Adam Bedell, 7
2.00 : Eric Gehrig, 11
1.93 : Ethan Finlay, 14
1.83 : Justin Meram, 12
1.74 : Waylon Francis, 19
1.65 : Federico Higuaín, 23

1.48 : Steve Clark, 27

1.47 : Giancarlo Gonzalez, 17
1.43 : Wil Trapp, 21
1.40 : Michael Parkhurst, 25
1.40 : Héctor Jiménez, 15
1.31 : Tony Tchani, 26
1.19 : Bernardo Anor, 16
1.13 : Chad Barson, 8
1.08 : Jairo Obando Arrieta, 13
1.00 : Joshua Williams, 13
0.50 : Dominic Oduro, 6
0.00 : Ben Speas, 6

Under Five Games...
5.00 : Kevan George, 2
5.00 : Aaron Schoenfeld, 1
1.67 : Daniel Paladini, 3
0.75 : Agustín Viana, 4

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Taking it one step further, here is a chart showing how each player lands above replacement, which is a way to say team average (when just looking at one, as I am). Still though... The Crew are currently 10th in a 19 team league so, this could be representative of the league as well.

(click to enlarge)

As soon as I made the table on the left I started trying to figure out why there were not any players in the upper left quadrant. It's the place where we would find players in the negative PPG but + GD (vs team avg). What this means is that the Crew have been good at placing the right players on the pitch to start.

Since I've been tracking this in 2011, the Crew haven't made a habit of winning games late after subs come on - but we did start seeing "super sub" type stuff a couple years ago with Robert Warzycha. While that's good in sports that have unlimited subs, it's not something you want to see in soccer. A "super sub" is a player that should be starting. Leave the 6th man or 12th man stuff for basketball and NFL.

Winning late on a regular basis means you're not starting the right guys.

THE IMPORTANCE OF COACHING, ENVIRONMENT, OPPORTUNITY

I've got a good bit of data and history on most of these players so I thought it was pretty interesting that guys like Gehrig, Finlay and Meram were up there. Especially Wahl. After matching it up with average opponent difficulty though, the story became a little more clear. What this chart simply shows is that the easier the opponent, the better the result of each player.

[UPDATED: Chart changed to include all players with at least 10 starts, by season since 2012]

KRAMB, Since 2012 | Create Infographics

Up to this point, this season has been a story of pre and post injury of players like Williams, Arrieta and Jimenez. Turns out the Crew were playing slightly more difficult teams early in the season when Gregg Berhalter's preferred guys were starting.

This shouldn't take everything away from the work that the guys at the top are doing. Their performance has a part in their opposition dropping in the table.

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Here is each player's average opponent difficulty. You'll note the best scores are guys playing the weaker MLS sides. There isn't much difference between a Ben Speas and Justin Meram, for example, but there is between Hector Jimenez and Speas. Three full spots when comparing the former with Finlay.

Average Opponent Table Position : Name
13.75 : Tyson Wahl
12.71 : Adam Bedell
12.07 : Ethan Finlay
10.92 : Justin Meram
10.64 : Eric Gehrig
10.63 : Chad Barson
10.53 : Waylon Francis
10.35 : Federico Higuaín

10.22 : Steve Clark

10.17 : Ben Speas
9.96 : Michael Parkhurst
9.92 : Tony Tchani
9.76 : Wil Trapp
9.62 : Jairo Obando Arrieta
9.47 : Giancarlo Gonzalez
8.85 : Joshua Williams
8.81 : Bernardo Anor
8.67 : Dominic Oduro
8.53 : Héctor Jiménez

Ultimately, this is Major League Soccer and the more time guys get the more they will fall towards playing teams ninth on the overall table.

In the chart above you see sort of a normal distribution curve - the guys falling out of it is what you should look for.

Crew +/- and PPG, 2012 to Present

It's a little early to start looking at +/- and individual points earned per start (the addition thereof becoming what I call KRAMB) for 2014 but let's take a look at what recent results are telling us as well as which players got results when on the pitch.



2012 CARLOS MENDES: 12 STARTS, 2.00 PPG, +0.58 GDpGM

Carlos Mendes is the most successful Columbus Crew player with over ten starts since the beginning of 2012. Taking into account the climate of the Crew during his time, no easy task. With him on the pitch the Crew averaged 1.50 goals per game (best) and only conceded 0.92 goals against (3rd best). The goal difference there is +0.58 (best).

Mendes (who is now Captain of the NY Cosmos) managed 7 wins from his 12 starts with only 2 losses and 3 draws. That's earning 67% of all possible points while starting. Also best on the team.

Let's start with that...

 % POSSIBLE POINTS EARNED (SINCE 2012, >10 STARTS) 

% PTS Earned - NAME - STARTS
------------------------------------------------
66.7% Carlos Mendes 12
61.9% Dilly Duka 14
57.1% Matt Lampson 14
52.9% Chris Birchall 17
52.5% Sebastián Miranda 33
51.9% Federico Higuaín 45
50.8% Eddie Gaven 44

50.4% TOP QUARTER 21

50.0% Emilio Renteria 16
49.4% Bernardo Anor 29
49.2% Wil Trapp 21
48.0% Jairo Obando Arrieta 41
47.4% Joshua Williams 57
46.3% Chad Barson 18
45.2% Eric Gehrig 14

45.2% MEDIAN 21

45.0% Agustín Viana 20
45.0% Justin Meram 20
44.8% Tony Tchani 32
44.4% Nemanja Vukovic 12
44.0% Milovan Mirosevic 25
43.2% Danny O´Rourke 37
43.2% Chad Marshall 54

43.2% BOTTOM QUARTER 14

42.6% Andy Gruenebaum 54
41.0% Gláuber 13
40.5% Dominic Oduro 37
40.3% Tyson Wahl 24
36.4% Ben Speas 11
26.7% Matías Sánchez 10

Personally, I believe earning points as a starter is a perfect starting point when trying to figure out whether or not you've got the right guy in there. It's very simple. The guys is in the starting lineup... team wins. Look at Chad Marshall, Andy Gruenebaum and Danny O'Rourke. Three favorites here in Columbus that Gregg Berhalter rightly didn't bring back for 2014. Look at all the starts, they were not getting it done and the team had missed both the 2012 and 2013 playoffs.

Notably, way down the list there are a handful of current players falling below the water line. Current starters Tony Tchani and Dominic Oduro are there. Digging a bit deeper, Tchani's play has greatly contributed to the Crew's early 2014 success.

ODURO OR ARRIETA

The Crew are off to a great start in 2014. In fact, because the lineup has been stable and the team is winning, most of the new players on this year's team would be leading most of my key performance metrics. Except Oduro, again. With him starting up top the Crew are 1-1-1 with 2 goals for and 3 against while Jairo Arrieta kicked off the year 2-0-0, 4 goals for and only 1 against.

With only five games on, 2014 is gives us just a small sample set - but matching it up with results over the past couple years it's not out of the ordinary. Arrieta has the edge, as far as filling the role up top.

The rest of the group? So far the new guys, again, are off to a great start (just look at the league table for their team stats). This weekend's second test against DC United will tell us a lot. What's that? Oh yes, long way to go. It always is though, isn't it.

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 +/- pGM WHEN STARTING, NAME, GAMES STARTED 

+0.58 Carlos Mendes 12
+0.36 Dilly Duka 14
+0.33 Nemanja Vukovic 12
+0.15 Agustín Viana 20
+0.14 Matt Lampson 14
+0.14 Bernardo Anor 29
+0.13 Emilio Renteria 16

+0.12 Sebastián Miranda 33
+0.11 Federico Higuaín 45
+0.09 Tony Tchani 32
+0.07 Joshua Williams 57
+0.07 Eddie Gaven 44
+0.03 Dominic Oduro 37

0.00 Chris Birchall 17
0.00 Jairo Obando Arrieta 41
0.00 Danny O´Rourke 37
0.00 Gláuber Berti 13

-0.04 Milovan Mirosevic 25
-0.04 Tyson Wahl 24
-0.05 Justin Meram 20
-0.07 Chad Marshall 54
-0.07 Andy Gruenebaum 54

-0.14 Wil Trapp 21
-0.17 Chad Barson 18
-0.18 Ben Speas 11
-0.43 Eric Gehrig 14
-0.50 Matías Sánchez 10

Final 2013 Crew KRAMB Scores

Kramb is a measurement / valuation I've been keeping track of over the past few years that helps tell me who is contributing to the success or failure of the side.

What it does is take an individual player's record when starting (PPG) and on pitch goal difference (GD) above or below team average. It looks like this:

KRAMB = (PLAYER PPG - TEAM PPG) + (PLAYER GD - TEAM GD)

Example:

0.04 : Tyson Wahl (1.21 - 1.21) + (-0.04 - -0.08)

The TEAM here is all the starters. TEAM GD of -0.08 is that of the starters only, compared to -0.12 overall team GD on the year. The drop indicates that subs lost ground (I'll look at that some other time)

Tyson is a good example because he is the replacement level player on the team. 12 players finished above him, 12 below. Here is the complete list, I'll use a five start minimum. At the bottom will be the lower start guys.

KRAMB : NAME : GAMES STARTED
+0.77 : Eddie Gaven 10
+0.56 : Matt Lampson 13
+0.37 : Agustín Viana 20
+0.31 : Justin Meram 9
+0.29 : Bernardo Anor 19
+0.25 : Tony Tchani 13
+0.13 : Dominic Oduro 34
+0.11 : Federico Higuaín 29
+0.10 : Gláuber Berti 13
+0.09 : Chad Barson 18
+0.07 : Chad Marshall 30
+0.04 : Tyson Wahl 24
-0.13 : Wil Trapp 16
-0.13 : Aaron Schoenfeld 3
-0.17 : Joshua Williams 25
-0.18 : Jairo Obando Arrieta 21
-0.30 : Eric Gehrig 6
-0.34 : Danny O´Rourke 19
-0.42 : Andy Gruenebaum 21
-0.53 : Ben Speas 10
-0.83 : Matías Sánchez 10

(not enough games)
-0.13 : Konrad Warzycha 2
-0.46 : Ethan Finlay 3
-0.80 : Ryan Finley 3
-1.46 : Kevan George 3

I'll split it out now, starting with PPG (split will be at replacement level):

PPG to REPLACEMENT : NAME : STARTS
0.41 : Matt Lampson 13
0.35 : Justin Meram 9
0.29 : Eddie Gaven 10
0.29 : Konrad Warzycha 2
0.18 : Chad Barson 18
0.14 : Agustín Viana 20
0.12 : Eric Gehrig 6
0.10 : Wil Trapp 16
0.10 : Federico Higuaín 29
0.10 : Tony Tchani 13
0.05 : Bernardo Anor 19

0.02 : Gláuber Berti 13
0.00 : Tyson Wahl 24
0.00 : Dominic Oduro 34

-0.01 : Chad Marshall 30
-0.09 : Joshua Williams 25
-0.11 : Jairo Obando Arrieta 21
-0.21 : Aaron Schoenfeld 3
-0.21 : Ethan Finlay 3
-0.21 : Ryan Finley 3
-0.26 : Andy Gruenebaum 21
-0.26 : Danny O´Rourke 19
-0.31 : Ben Speas 10
-0.41 : Matías Sánchez 10
-0.88 : Kevan George 3

...and here's Goal Difference above/below replacement

GD to REPLACEMENT : NAME : STARTS
+0.48 : Eddie Gaven 10
+0.24 : Bernardo Anor 19
+0.23 : Agustín Viana 20
+0.16 : Matt Lampson 13
+0.16 : Tony Tchani 13
+0.14 : Dominic Oduro 34
+0.08 : Gláuber Berti 13
+0.08 : Chad Marshall 30
+0.08 : Aaron Schoenfeld 3
+0.04 : Tyson Wahl 24
+0.01 : Federico Higuaín 29

-0.03 : Justin Meram 9
-0.06 : Jairo Obando Arrieta 21
-0.08 : Danny O´Rourke 19

-0.08 : Joshua Williams 25
-0.09 : Chad Barson 18
-0.16 : Andy Gruenebaum 21
-0.22 : Ben Speas 10
-0.23 : Wil Trapp 16
-0.25 : Ethan Finlay 3
-0.42 : Konrad Warzycha 2
-0.42 : Eric Gehrig 6
-0.42 : Matías Sánchez 10
-0.59 : Ryan Finley 3
-0.59 : Kevan George 3

Something that sticks out is the where a player falls on each list. This points to substitution patterns in most, but not all, cases. Next list will be the difference between (absolute value) the player's spot on each list.

ABS : NAME STARTS
18 : Konrad Warzycha 2
14 : Eric Gehrig 6
11 : Aaron Schoenfeld 3
11 : Chad Barson 18
11 : Wil Trapp 16
10 : Justin Meram 9
9 : Bernardo Anor 19
8 : Danny O´Rourke 19
8 : Dominic Oduro 34
7 : Chad Marshall 30
5 : Ben Speas 10

5 : Tony Tchani 13
4 : Andy Gruenebaum 21
4 : Jairo Obando Arrieta 21

4 : Ryan Finley 3
3 : Agustín Viana 20
3 : Gláuber Berti 13
3 : Matt Lampson 13
3 : Tyson Wahl 24
2 : Eddie Gaven 10
2 : Federico Higuaín 29
1 : Ethan Finlay 3
1 : Joshua Williams 25
1 : Matías Sánchez 10
0 : Kevan George 3

The guys toward the top aren't matching up. In Konrad's case it is more of a function of having only 2 starts.

Chad Barson is a good one to look at. He ended up 5th in PPG but 16th in GD. What this means is that the team scored after he was subbed out (which happened in Dallas late in the year). He got the win but was not part of the goal.

Fine margins, for sure, but it points to the enormity of a goal in this sport. A goal prevented here, another scored there... it's not just the difference in a single game but the difference between making the playoffs or not in MLS, particularly this year.

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OPPONENT DIFFICULTY

This measurement is just one way to look at things but it is something I find valuable and helps me to ask questions that lead down paths of better understanding of the team.

The largest, most direct path being the difficulty of opponent each starter faced. For example, Glauber ended up facing the easiest competition overall with an average opponent difficulty of 12.7 on the overall combined table.

Breaking Glauber's starts further tells us that 6 of his 13 total starts were against bottom 5 competition.

If you look at the ratio between a player's starts against top 5 and bottom five I see that Lampson, Barson, Anor, Trapp had the most difficult opponents.

For the guys with only a few starts, Kevan George sticks out. His only three starts were against top five teams. Talk about a tough row to hoe; New York, Sporting, LA.

Anyhow, assessing the difficulty of opponents is also affected by where the game is played (even what time it is played).

Gaven overall had easier opponents (only two in top 5) but 6 of his ten games were away. Guys like Anor (11/19 at home), Arrieta (12/21), Trapp (9/16) and Barson (10/18) benefited from home cookin'.

One callout here is Matias Sanchez who was like Gaven in that 6 of his 10 games were on the road (Viana also). Very difficult to get a decent GD this way.

So you can see that there are many ways to look at it.

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I call it KRAMB after Ryan Kramb (PhD, MS, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, BS University of Dayton) who once asked questions about such wild things.

More to come on this topic over at Massive Report so stay tuned!

Thanks for reading.

If you have any questions you can email me at ljbaby654@gmail.com or find me on twitter @helltownbeer.

Updated KRAMB

KRAMB is a measurement I started tracking a couple years ago. It started out as points earned per game (PPG) + goal difference (GD) when starting. It's evolved to, well... pretty much the same thing.

Only now it's PPG + GD above replacement (team average of 0.00).

I call it KRAMB after Ryan Kramb, who once asked questions about such things.

What this works out to be is... the higher the number, the better the team does when that player is starting.

KRAMB : PLAYER : GAMES STARTED
+0.95 : Eddie Gaven 10
+0.49 : Justin Meram 9
+0.34 : Agustín Viana 14
+0.28 : Gláuber Berti 13
+0.20 : Bernardo Anor 13
+0.19 : Dominic Oduro 28
+0.18 : Matt Lampson 8
+0.09 : Joshua Williams 24
+0.05 : Chad Marshall 24

0.00 : TEAM

-0.06 : Tyson Wahl 18
-0.07 : Federico Higuaín 25
-0.09 : Tony Tchani 7
-0.12 : Eric Gehrig 6
-0.15 : Andy Gruenebaum 20
-0.16 : Danny O´Rourke 19
-0.18 : Chad Barson 13
-0.28 : Jairo Obando Arrieta 15
-0.35 : Ben Speas 10
-0.55 : Wil Trapp 10
-0.65 : Matías Sánchez 10

Here are the players with not enough games to make any reasonable conclusion.

+1.05 : Aaron Schoenfeld 2
+0.55 : Ethan Finlay 2
+0.05 : Konrad Warzycha 2
-0.62 : Ryan Finley 3
-1.28 : Kevan George 3

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The spirit of KRAMB is what each player's goal difference is when on the pitch. Exactly the same thing you see with NBA and NHL in their meticulous plus/minus ratings that they track but are absent from the pages of MLS or any MLS stat tracking outlet (this includes when used as sub).

Here is how that looks for Columbus Crew players as a per 90 minute figure...

ON PITCH GOAL DIFF : NAME : 90 MIN GAMES
+0.40 : Eddie Gaven : 10.0

0.00 : Bernardo Anor : 13.0
0.00 : Dominic Oduro : 26.2
0.00 : Agustín Viana : 11.5
0.00 : Gláuber Berti : 13.0

-0.11 : Tyson Wahl : 17.9
-0.13 : Joshua Williams : 24.0
-0.13 : Chad Marshall : 23.3
-0.20 : Andy Gruenebaum : 20.0
-0.22 : Tony Tchani : 8.9
-0.24 : Justin Meram : 8.2
-0.26 : Danny O´Rourke : 19.1
-0.26 : Jairo Obando Arrieta : 15.2
-0.28 : Federico Higuaín : 24.8

-0.38 : Matt Lampson : 8.0

-0.50 : Eric Gehrig : 6.0
-0.55 : Matías Sánchez : 9.1
-0.61 : Chad Barson : 13.2
-0.62 : Ben Speas : 9.6
-0.63 : Kevan George : 4.7
-0.85 : Wil Trapp : 9.4

...and here are some guys that don't really have enough time. That said, this is a metric based on minutes so the impact of this number could be considered more important than something based on apps.

0.00 : Aaron Schoenfeld : 2.3
-1.00 : Ryan Finley : 4.0
-1.32 : Konrad Warzycha : 3.0
-1.82 : Ethan Finlay : 3.3

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While only part of the overall picture, I believe this type of information to be important in evaluating the overall impact of a player.

KRAMB Score, Updated (surprises)

It's been a few games since I've posted updated KRAMB for Crew players (Pts Earned per Start above replacement level* + Goal Difference per Start) and boy are there some changes.

Justin Meram has crossed the magical five game barrier and has found himself on top of the team. Six total starts. Three wins, two draws and only one loss. I'd be lying if I said I saw this one coming.

Last year Meram was a 'super-sub' of sorts (+7 goal diff) with a bad starting record (won't go there). I'd also be remiss if I didn't mention that two of the three wins he has this year have been against Toronto. But then... A win and draw against NY plus another draw against the Dynamo? I'll say; well earned overall.

Here we go.

KRAMB : NAME (NUMBER OF STARTS)

+0.79 : Justin Meram (6)
+0.71 : Agustín Viana (12)
+0.69 : Eddie Gaven (10)
+0.29 : Wil Trapp (6)
+0.25 : Dominic Oduro (24)
+0.19 : Bernardo Anor (10)
+0.15 : Joshua Williams (22)
+0.04 : Chad Marshall (20)
+0.02 : Gláuber Berti (13)

-0.01 : Chad Barson (10)
-0.13 : Federico Higuaín (24)
-0.15 : Danny O´Rourke (17)
-0.21 : Jairo Obando Arrieta (13)
-0.32 : Ben Speas (9)
-0.34 : Tyson Wahl (16)
-0.35 : Tony Tchani (7)
-0.41 : Andy Gruenebaum (20)
-0.91 : Matías Sánchez (10)

NOT ENOUGH GAMES (<5)

+1.79 : Matt Lampson (4)
+0.79 : Aaron Schoenfeld (2)
-0.21 : Konrad Warzycha (2)
-0.46 : Eric Gehrig (4)
-1.54 : Kevan George (3)

Other changes that are driving KRAMB change are Matt Lampson starting. The results he has gotten as starter have pulled Gruenebaum way down the list.

However.

Lampson is a little untested. He is a local kid about to be thrown into the fire out west against Real Salt Lake. Three of his four starts have been close to home. The one away match he has had was a disaster against Houston. Well see how things go in SLC.

Another player driving results in regards to this measurement is Wil Trapp. Some of the folks I know closest to the club say he is the real deal. Like Lampson, he is getting the results near home. Notable is the loss he started away in Toronto and in Houston. All three of his wins (Portland, New York and Toronto) have been in Columbus.

Agustin Viana's return the lineup, while understated, is probably the most reliable indicator of a individual player contributing to recent team performance. Having him healthy and starting at a critical Left Back spot has certainly helped the team.

All I got for now. Remember: numbers don't lie. Trust the numbers. Also... understand what it is you are looking at.

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*Replacement level is what a average player on the team will theoretically give you, team average (0.00).

Updated Player GD, PPG (KRAMB)

Updating team performance when a particular Crew player is starting and goal activity when on the pitch. KRAMB* adds up team Points Earned per Start with Goal Difference (GD) when that player is on the pitch.

Minimum of 5 starts. Players with less will be listed at bottom of post.

KRAMB : NAME (GMs STARTED)
1.90 : Eddie Gaven (10)
1.75 : Agustín Viana (8)
1.65 : Danny O´Rourke (14)
1.47 : Joshua Williams (17)
1.37 : Dominic Oduro (19)
1.33 : Chad Marshall (15)
1.23 : Gláuber Berti (13)

1.21 : TEAM (19)

1.20 : Bernardo Anor (5)
1.10 : Federico Higuaín (19)
1.05 : Andy Gruenebaum (18)
0.89 : Ben Speas (9)
0.87 : Tyson Wahl (16)
0.85 : Tony Tchani (7)
0.75 : Matías Sánchez (8)
0.67 : Jairo Obando Arrieta (9)
0.57 : Chad Barson (7)

Takeaways:

• Top two players are hurt (Gaven out for year, Viana back soon).

• You can see how one +3 PPG and +1 GD missing for Gruenebaum's number puts him (Matt Lampson started last match).

• Anor jumps on the list for the first time this year crossing the 5 game mark at about team average. In years past Anor has had superior results with this measurement.

• The Crew have not had great results in last 7 matches, these also happen to be when Barson is starting. I don't consider him a step up in quality from Wahl but do like he is getting time.

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Next up is Goal Difference when player starts. This does not include when a player is subbed on (that is something I'll look at some other time).

GD : NAME
+0.40 : Eddie Gaven
+0.36 : Danny O´Rourke
+0.25 : Agustín Viana
+0.18 : Joshua Williams
+0.16 : Dominic Oduro
+0.13 : Chad Marshall

0.00 : Gláuber Berti
0.00 : TEAM
0.00 : Bernardo Anor

-0.06 : Andy Gruenebaum
-0.11 : Federico Higuaín
-0.11 : Ben Speas
-0.19 : Tyson Wahl
-0.22 : Jairo Obando Arrieta
-0.25 : Matías Sánchez
-0.29 : Tony Tchani
-0.43 : Chad Barson

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Here is Points Earned per Start.

Pts per Start : NAME
1.50 : Eddie Gaven
1.50 : Agustín Viana
1.29 : Danny O´Rourke
1.29 : Joshua Williams
1.23 : Gláuber Berti

1.21 : Dominic Oduro
1.21 : TEAM
1.21 : Federico Higuaín

1.20 : Chad Marshall
1.20 : Bernardo Anor
1.14 : Tony Tchani
1.11 : Andy Gruenebaum
1.06 : Tyson Wahl
1.00 : Ben Speas
1.00 : Matías Sánchez
1.00 : Chad Barson
0.89 : Jairo Obando Arrieta

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Players with not enough starts.
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KRAMB : NAME(GMs STARTED)
4.00 : Wil Trapp (1)
4.00 : Matt Lampson (1)
4.00 : Konrad Warzycha (1)
4.00 : Aaron Schoenfeld (1)
0.75 : Justin Meram (4)
0.75 : Eric Gehrig (4)
-0.34 : Kevan George (3)

Takeaways from players with few starts:

• George is only player with out a win on the team (2 Loss, 1 Draw) and he has an average goal difference of -0.67 when starting.

• Gehrig and Meram have identical numbers. 1 Win, 2 Draws, 1 Loss and a goal difference of -0.50

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*I call this score KRAMB for Ryan Kramb (PhD, MS, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign BS University of Dayton) who was curious about 'on pitch' data. I now regularly track it and use it in player evaluation.

Please note, this is only one way to measure a player's contributions.

Updated Kramb, Replacement Level Story Telling

Kramb is a measurement for starting players on the Columbus Crew. It adds team Points per Game (PPG) earned while player is starting with his Goal Differential (GD) whilst on the pitch (similar to a +/- type metric that the NBA likes to mess around with).

EXAMPLE: D. Oduro
PPG + GD = KRAMB
1.21 + 0.14 = 1.35

KRAMB : Player Games Started
1.90 : Eddie Gaven 10
1.89 : Danny O´Rourke 9
1.75 : Agustín Viana 8
1.58 : Joshua Williams 12
1.40 : Chad Marshall 10
1.35 : Dominic Oduro 14
1.23 : Gláuber Berti 13

1.21 : Andy Gruenebaum 14 (Team)

1.14 : Jairo Obando Arrieta 7
1.07 : Federico Higuaín 14
0.86 : Tony Tchani 7
0.85 : Tyson Wahl 13
0.43 : Ben Speas 7
0.40 : Matías Sánchez 5

(not enough games)

1.00 : Kevan George 1
0.75 : Eric Gehrig 4
0.75 : Justin Meram 4
0.00 : Aaron Schoenfeld 1
-1.00 : Chad Barson 2

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KRAMB+

Above is my preferred way to look at how a player is contributing. It's not perfect but it gives you a great idea of who is contributing and who is not. That said, I ran across something last year that was odd with the Crew and it came by way of schedule difficulty (magnified with unbalanced schedule). As 2012 rolled along it became clear that certain players were trotted out against harder clubs. Makes sense, of course, that you try and play your better players against hard teams but this wasn't always the case with the team last year (more on that in future posts).

Are there some ways to incorporate schedule difficulty into the KRAMB number? I think so.

One way I like, is to take replacement level type view on each category KRAMB looks at and then add one more; Average Opponent Difficulty. We'll call it AOD.

Here is what the team looks like:
PPG ---- > 1.12
GD ---- > -0.01
Average Opponent Difficulty (AOD) ---- > 11.98

With that I can take any individuals numbers (when starting, only) and get a +/- above or below replacement.

EXAMPLE: D. Oduro
PPG ---- > 1.12
GD ---- > +1.14
AOD ---- > 12.00

D. Oduro vs. replacement
PPG ---- > 0.00
GD ---- > +0.15
AOD ---- > -0.02

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KRAMB+ for D. Oduro = +0.13
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Here are the rest of the players:

KRAMB+ : NAME : GAMES STARTED
+0.78 : Matías Sánchez 5*
+0.49 : Tony Tchani 7*
+0.18 : Eddie Gaven 10
+0.16 : Tyson Wahl 13*
+0.13 : Dominic Oduro 14
-0.01 : Andy Gruenebaum 14

-0.15 : Federico Higuaín 14

-0.22 : Danny O´Rourke 9
-0.37 : Gláuber Berti 13
-0.39 : Joshua Williams 12
-0.51 : Ben Speas 7
-0.62 : Chad Marshall 10
-0.79 : Jairo Obando Arrieta 7
-1.10 : Agustín Viana 8

(not enough games)

+4.78 : Kevan George 1
+2.28 : Chad Barson 2
+1.78 : Aaron Schoenfeld 1
+1.53 : Eric Gehrig 4
+1.53 : Justin Meram 4

*I've put an astrisk next to some of the players to point out that they jump way up when taking opponent difficulty in to account.

Something else I found very interesting is that the guys at the bottom who don't have enough starts yet in order to be considered. All of them are ridiculously high numbers. There is a story to be told here.

How exactly does this tell a story?

Well, the Crew started the year off with an easier level of competition but as things progressed the schedule got slightly harder. As they tend to do, injuries started to pile up as well. This meant that the Crew had to put non-first team-ers into the starting line up. The increased level of competition drives players like Gehrig, Sanchez, Barson and Meram way high and, in turn, driven some of the other players down.

Barson, for example, has a loss and a draw (0.50 PPG) on his record to go along with his -1.50 GD. Not looking good there but take in to consideration his opponent level in those two games; Houston (6th) and Philly (9th).

Thus is the tale of the once and future Crew. I wrote a lot about it earlier this year:

Bottled Up, Higuaín

The Crew are only three games away from the middle of the season. More of this to come. I know it's dabbling a bit in the dark arts but I think there are a lot of things here that are valuable. Thanks for reading.

Updated Kramb's Law Figures

I've updated "on pitch" numbers to date for the Columbus Crew. These are player results based strictly on what happens when a player starts (Win/Draw/Loss) and on the field (Goals For/Against).

CALLOUTS, GOOD
• Agustin Viana is the only player that has more wins than losses (3 wins, 2 loss, 3 draws).
• Viana has earned half of possible points when starter, best on Crew.
• Danny O'Rourke has best Goal Diff (GD) when on pitch (+0.56)
• Eddie Gaven, Dominic Oduro, Agustin Viana also good.

CALLOUTS, BAD
• Tyson Wahl. -0.11 GD when on pitch
• Wahl only player with negative GD on club
• Federico Higuian, Jairo Arrieta, and Ben Speas are even on GD but below team average.
• Crew average opponent combined table rank: 12th
• Eddie Gaven and Chad Marshall are only players to make start in at least 1 game in first 10 since 2011.

KRAMB'S LAW OF PERFORMANCE
For a couple years I've been messing around with how players do as starters and not long ago Chemical Engineer, Ryan Kramb asked about results when players were on the pitch.

KRAMB = (AVG ON PITCH GD + TEAM PTS EARNED WHEN STARTER)

So... higher the number the better, easier way to put it.

KRAMB : NAME
1.89 : Danny O´Rourke
1.75 : Eddie Gaven
1.75 : Agustín Viana
1.50 : Dominic Oduro

1.40 : Andy Gruenebaum
1.40 : Chad Marshall
1.40 : Joshua Williams
1.40 : Gláuber Berti

1.20 : Federico Higuaín
1.17 : Jairo Obando Arrieta
1.00 : Tony Tchani*
1.00 : Ben Speas
0.89 : Tyson Wahl
-2.00 : Matías Sánchez*

*Tchani and Sanchez - less than 5 Starts. Always need 5 starts.

Kramb's Law (first look, Crew)

We are almost to a magical 2013 MLS season moment here for Helltown - That moment? One where all MLS teams have reached at least 5 games.

I like 5 games because it is 450 minutes, and from what I have been able to observe over the past three years in tracking MLS stats closely is that 450 is the first marker in identifying a trend. Be it good or bad. Player or club.

While there are still 3 teams sitting on four the other 16 are at 5 or six. So I am jumping the gun a little. Consider it a preview.

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KRAMB'S LAW(s) OF PERFORMANCE
The name comes from Ryan Kramb (M.S., PhD, Chemical Engineering / Crew fan), who asked a few questions of me towards the end of last year about tracking team performance while players were on the field. Let's take a look at the ingredients.

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1. Goal Difference:
We'll call this the 1st of 3 Kramb laws. GD while on the pitch is right up there with points earned per start in my book. Critical performance indicators that can lead to a better understanding of the team.

Goal Difference alone whilst on the pitch is a good indicator but Goal Diff vs how well the team does gives us a performance metric.

GOAL DIFF vs TEAM AVG : NAME
+0.73 : Eddie Gaven

0.00 : Chad Marshall
0.00 : Danny O´Rourke
0.00 : Dominic Oduro
0.00 : Joshua Williams
0.00 : Gláuber Berti
0.00 : Tyson Wahl
0.00 : Andy Gruenebaum

-0.20 : Agustín Viana
-0.40 : Federico Higuaín
-0.60 : Jairo Obando Arrieta
-0.60 : Ben Speas

2. Opponent Difficulty:
Another major influencer to consider in monitoring player performance is quality of opponent. For this I use current place on the overall MLS table. Right now the Crew's avg opponent place on the table is 9.6 or, about the middle of the table. You can turn this into a metric by taking each individual player's Opponent Diff vs. Team Avg.

OPPONENT DIFF VS. TEAM AVG : NAME
+2.27 : Jairo Obando Arrieta

0.00 : Chad Marshall
0.00 : Danny O´Rourke
0.00 : Dominic Oduro
0.00 : Joshua Williams
0.00 : Gláuber Berti
0.00 : Tyson Wahl
0.00 : Andy Gruenebaum
0.00 : Agustín Viana
0.00 : Federico Higuaín

-0.40 : Eddie Gaven
-1.40 : Ben Speas

3. Points Earned per Start:
Now we are on to points earned when an individual player starts vs team average (1.60 PPG right now).

PPG vs TEAM : NAME
+0.73 : Eddie Gaven

0.00 : Chad Marshall
0.00 : Danny O´Rourke
0.00 : Dominic Oduro
0.00 : Joshua Williams
0.00 : Gláuber Berti
0.00 : Tyson Wahl
0.00 : Andy Gruenebaum
0.00 : Agustín Viana
0.00 : Federico Higuaín

-0.27 : Jairo Obando Arrieta
-0.35 : Ben Speas

Now that we have three useful, actionable metrics I'm going to simply add them up and see what happens.

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KRAMB SCORE : NAME
+1.40 : Jairo Obando Arrieta
+1.07 : Eddie Gaven

0.00 : Chad Marshall
0.00 : Danny O´Rourke
0.00 : Joshua Williams
0.00 : Gláuber Berti
0.00 : Tyson Wahl
0.00 : Andy Gruenebaum
0.00 : Dominic Oduro

-0.20 : Agustín Viana
-0.40 : Federico Higuaín
-2.35 : Ben Speas

What this should tell us is which players have contributed the most while playing. This isn't a measure of individual player quality but more a indication of which players are getting results while playing.

Some early thoughts (and it is very early):

• Arrieta missed the DC win but benefits because of United's poor place on the table. He was also part of the big win week one vs. Chivas USA.

• Speas is the only player that missed the Chivas USA win. With out that win the Crew are achingly average and Speas score suffers from that. Would the Crew have won that Vancouver game away were Gaven playing?

• Higuain was down the list at the end of last year as well. I've written A LOT about why this happens (see my Massive Report piece on it). Summed up? Better teams figured out fast how the Crew coaching staff was using him last year and all teams have figured it out this year.

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Stay tuned to Massive Report by around Week 10. I'll post up the same there but with more data to support 2013 results.