Crew SC Lack Hunger, Still Winless

Gregg Berhalter and Anthony Precourt's Columbus Crew SC is one that is very comfortable with not winning much for long stretches. In 2014, Columbus had an epic 16 match run where they only won one match and earned a measly 11 pts. Last year there was a sleepy 10 game run of 8pts in May/June.

Both of these runs are as bad as anything Robert Warzycha posted in his time, yet, it's clear that things are different. This Crew appears to be in control of the car while Warzycha's was often careening into oncoming traffic.

Last night Columbus left Frisco with a point on the back side of an international break. This makes four winless matches to start the season and six winless, digging back to last season's playoffs.

Greatness this isn't. It's a slog. And it's not fun. But it's working for this "new Crew" playing in this current competitive format in Major League Soccer.

We've said it here many times here at Helltown this year, and we'll say it again. This year's Crew team has a massive, pulsating, hangover from last year. The ease of which they are approaching this season appears to be almost by design. Maybe that will work, maybe not.

One thing is for certain, however. The world doesn't stop for you to recover and get that hunger back. While this new Crew SC might have a mini-history of bad stretches, none of them to start the season.

MLS gives you a long leash but there's an old saying out there that goes something like "jump on the day before it jumps on you." Words to live by, really. Same could be said about starting a season.

Ask a Columbus Blue Jacket fan.

Carryover Minutes Strike Again

It's the ops manager in me. When I first started digging into MLS stats to get a quick understanding of the league I made a beeline to player minutes. What I believed (and still believe) is that a stable roster is representative of a stable organization.

I've been on both sides of the turnover scenario. Even in the simplest situations, when you are starting something new you have heavy turnover. Same goes for when you make the wrong staffing decision or leadership change. More often than not, though, burning through resources (staff, money, materials, etc) is an unhealthy sign.

Conversely, maintaining a stable group (from the front office on down to the players) is a sign of a healthy organization.

Rules and regulations in Major League Soccer work against stability. Budgeting (salary cap) each team is just one mechanism the league uses, but it has the greatest impact. You see it most when a player improves (which is what we all want right?). A good year means a lot of players are playing at a higher level and want more money. This is expensive and a team's budget does not increase enough to keep up with it. What ends up happening is teams letting go of players they would rather not or making sacrifices down-roster with younger players.

It's a reality of MLS, but managing it has clear rewards.

Here's a look at how teams fared in returning minutes from the previous two seasons, on the combined table of 2014 to 2015...

POINTS PER GAME MEDIAN - TABLE POSITION (pts)
1.72 - Top 5 (58 pts)
1.64 - Top Half (56)
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1.23 - Bottom Half (42)
1.41 - Bottom 5 (48)

The difference between the top and bottom half is where to look, here. The jump you see in the bottom five belongs to both Sporting KC and the NY Red Bulls. It suggests instability in their organizations, though. If you are familiar with those two teams it sort of proves true. The Red Bulls are riding a sort of high post-Thierry Henry and Tim Cahill group and Sporting has cleared (significant way) for both Graham Zusi and Matt Besler. Looking at this way suggests that NYRB might be in for a bad 2016. Write it down.

Three of the remaining four teams in the MLS Cup playoffs finished close to 70% in regards to bringing guys back from the previous year and fall in the top half when looking at the last two years.

% POSSIBLE RETURNING MINS FROM 2013 & 2014 - TEAM - (MLS rank)
58% - FC Dallas (7th)
57% - Portland Timbers (8th)
55% - Columbus Crew SC (9th)
35% - NY Red Bulls (last)

Again, NY is the oddball here. I asked Justin Bell about them during this site's last podcast because I'm really at a loss as to why / how they had such a Supporters' Sheild winning year. I really like their team this year, but perhaps it is entirely possible that, be it this postseason or next year, midnight is quickly approaching on their special season.

The further back I go with "carryover minutes" the clearer the end of the road is for some of the better teams. Success isn't sustainable in the league's current format.

Much has been made about the final four in the MLS playoffs this year in regards to budget. The way I see it though, success this year means the Grim Reaper awaits in the next as player wages increase at a rate greater than the salary cap.

Congrats to the final four. Best of luck navigating that salary cap next year. More importantly, my best goes to the players whose careers are derailed by it.

Predictions, Crew Rd 16 (Home vs FC Dallas)

FC Dallas is in Columbus today to take on the Crew. Kickoff a slightly later 8:00 PM EST so there is some night for post game fireworks (always brings in a crowd here in the midwest).

 GAME NOTES 
CLB: Limited roster, Higuain likely out, Trapp recovering
CLB: Win will help separate from lower half of table
CLB: 1st league game since World Cup break
FCD: Only 1 win last 10 (Crew 1 in last 12)
FCD: Won both US Open Cup games during break
FCD: Missing too many players to mention

 TEN PREDICTIONS 
Number on left is percentage accuracy picking 2014 Columbus Crew results only.

53% WHOSCORED.COM ... DRAW
Graham Ruthven gives the edge to Dallas in the game notes saying "If FC Dallas can pick up where they left off, they could take the points from this one," but thinks ultimately it ends with a 1-1 scoreline.

47% COLUMBUS DISPATCH ... COLUMBUS CREW (lean)
Beat writer Adam Jardy admits that this one is a hard to call but in the end seems to think FC Dallas is a team the Crew can beat; "...this is the type of game it needs to win."

40% MLSSOCCER ... COLUMBUS CREW
Picking Crew with gusto! All six votes.

40% WIN DRAW WIN ... COLUMBUS CREW
Medium Stake on 1-0 home win, Your Votes heavy on Crew (60%, Draw 33%, Away 16%).

40% GOAL.COM ... DRAW (Crew lean)
Jon Arnold more or less runs down list of player absences, no lean either way. The fan prediction leans towards Crew.

33% BET365 ... COLUMBUS CREW
Crew at better than even (10/11). FC Dallas 3/1, Draw 12/5.

33% HOME TEAM ... COLUMBUS CREW

13% TABLE POSITION ... FC DALLAS

--% WV HOOLIGAN ... (no pick)

--% MASSIVE REPORT ... (no pick)

 MY PREDICTION 

Careful!!

Not many would have predicted Costa Rica to still be in Brazil, but here they are. The Crew are a severely depleted side, both in starters available and overall. Along with absences of starters Giancarlo Gonzalez and Waylon Francis to the World Cup the Crew are also missing Josh Williams and Ethan Finlay. Michael Parkhurst is somewhat questionable as are Wil Trapp and Federico Higuain. Not sure I've seen a Crew roster this way in the last few years.

Dallas isn't much better but their roster is always seems to be a patchwork one. In some ways the two sides have mirrored each other for some time. Inconsistent results and questionable roster decisions at the admin level. Crew fans are hoping that changes in coming months, years.

The Crew might have the edge in this one with the home crowd. Slight chance of rain for the fireworks but weather otherwise looks outstanding. Enjoy the match.

Crew Rd 31, 90s Style MLS Win at Dallas

Columbus put together another away win Sunday as they see off Dallas at Toyota Stadium.

1ST HALF
The Crew took advantage of a eager FC Dallas in the first half by using their speed to get past a attacking minded back four.

Columbus scored in the 9th and 17th minute before Dallas could tuck one away in the 21st. Just before half the Crew put another away on a disorganized, happy-go-lucky home side.

The whirlwind half ended 3-1 in favor of the Crew.

2ND HALF
Much like the first. Dallas was disorganized and pushing forward and playing with very little to lose. The chaos paid of for them in the 54th when a lot of the Crew players thought the ball had gone out and stopped before the whistle. Mauro Alberto Díaz would end up walking the ball into the net (somewhat embarrassingly).

With the game 3-2 both sides decided the buckle down, grinding the free wheeling flow to a mess of subs, fouls and yellow cards.

In fact in the span of 17 minutes between the 66th and 83rd minute this game saw 10 fouls, 5 yellows and 4 substitutions.

by the final few moments of this game you sensed this this one was over. Bernardo Anor would put one last one past a (very poor) Raúl Fernández to end it 4-2.

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FINAL THOUGHTS

This game reminded me of how MLS soccer played in the late 90s. Fast paced, fearless, and pin ball like possession (even between same team).

Dallas played like a collection of above average players with no coach. I'm not sure if they have given up on the season or just are poorly coached, really.

Columbus played with more structure, which is what won them the game. Dallas just didn't seem to want to play any defense, and their keeper... oh my.

All in all, what a crazy game. Flashbacks to my days perched in the RFK stands having flashbacks to the 1998 Tibetan Freedom Concert not to long before on the same grounds.

Predictions: Crew (A) v FC Dallas

Good Morning.

The Columbus Crew travel to Toyota Stadium today to take on FC Dallas. Kickoff time is 8:30 PM EST. 7:30 Central.

GAME NOTES:
CLB: Lineup likely to stay same as last 2 weeks
CLB: On GD, tied worst away form -10 in last 6
CLB: 7 losses in last 8 on the road
FCD: Only lost 1 all year at home
FCD: Lots of speed up top
FCD: In danger of dropping out of playoff hunt

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PREDICTIONS
(in no particular order)

1. WIN DRAW WIN ... FC DALLAS
Leaning pretty heavy here at this aggregate betting site. Wise guys taking stake in a 3-0 Home win and only voting for the Crew 15% on the pretty accurate 'your vote' section.

2. COLUMBUS DISPATCH ... NO LEAN
Adam Jardy, beat writer here in town, doesn't appear to lean either way. Again mentions win makes hopes of making the playoffs more realistic.

3. MLSSOCCER.COM ... FC DALLAS
Four of the six folks on the MLS panel like Dallas. Only one picking Crew to win (Andrew Wiebe, the arch nemesis to any thinking analyst)

4. HOME TEAM ... FC DALLAS

5. WHOSCORED.COM ... DRAW
Graham Ruthven actually gives fans a glimpse of what this game might look like as far as play (a rarity in MLS); "A compact, yet eagerly contested game is expected between these two sides. A draw could be on the cards."

6. WV HOOLIGAN ... FC DALLAS
Drew Epperley (Big D Soccer on SB Nation as well has WVHooligan.com) like Dallas to win this one 2-1. "Columbus has been better under Brian Bliss but I’d argue that they haven’t seen a team that has the speed that Dallas has up front."

7. BET365 ... FC DALLAS
Dallas is basically even (10/11) with a draw next (12/5). Crew getting 3/1 odds in this one.

8. MASSIVE REPORT ... DRAW
Managing editor, Patrick Guldan is sure to mention David Ferreira, saying that he "is Dallas's biggest creative force. Clamping down on him will choke the home team's offense." Patrick thinks this will go down as a 1-1 draw.

9. TABLE POSITION ... FC DALLAS

10. GOAL.COM ... COLUMBUS CREW
Ives Galarcep again with the summary for this one saying "Standing in the Crew's way is an FC Dallas side that is heading in the opposite direction. Consecutive losses, both courtesy of own goals, have put a halt to a promising turnaround for Dallas, which has managed just two wins in 16 matches." I'm going to go ahead and put the Crew down for this one, even though Ives doesn't really lean. The reader pick shows Dallas.

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MY THOUGHTS, PREDICTION
There are precisely two MLS teams that have positive goal difference away from home this year. Just like last week when Chicago traveled to Columbus and got whooped 3-0 it's going to be a tall order for the Crew to get all three points this week down in Texas.

The Crew do have a couple things going for them, however.

1. Team has some pep in the step under Brian Bliss
2. Dallas struggling to win home or away

Dallas is clearly the favorite today but those two things point to a closer match than many might think.

Josh Williams and Andy Gruenebaum, who have been recovering from injury, are probably sitting this one out. Bliss, like Warzycha before him, likes to keep the lineup the same if the team is winning.

I have problems with this. Biggest one is that this philosophy has failed the Crew over the past two years. They have only been able to string a couple wins together two times this year doing this.

You have to plan for each opponent differently. For example. The Crew aren't good on the road. A lot of that has to do with Matt Lampson and his inexperience on the road.

Goals given up with Lampson as starter:
3 : at Houston
4 : at Salt Lake
3 : at Kansas City
1 : at Montreal

That's 11 goals allowed in his last four away starts. I realize this is a team thing but Lampson has looked like a completely different person home vs away. A Gruenebaum start here, even though he has been out for an extended period, might not be a bad idea if he is ready to go. Gruenebaum's motivation will be through the roof.

Despite not getting the results they might like, Dallas has lit up the scoreboard in last three at home (8 goals in last 3). They will be extremely hungry to get goals vs the Crew.

Bliss could take advantage of that if so inclined.

Dallas is fast. Dallas can be frustrating. Dallas is hard to beat at home. This one could have some fireworks in it if the crowd gets in to it (if they are even there, Cowboys playing late afternoon game).

Looks like temps will be in the mid 80s. Enjoy the game.

Mr. Brek Shea, Premier League Interest

I reckon it was just a matter of time before Brek Shea's Agent came out and announced that his client is getting interest from foreign lands. As in. Abroad. Such as. Over the ocean. Wherein. That cat shaped piece of earth that causes people to marvel at how so many great things can come from such a tiny little island.

Shea's Agent happens to be a young Duke University graduate named Spencer Wadsworth. Despite the Jane Austen type name, he is American. Mr. Wadsworth works for a bigger conglomerate called Santio Sports.

“There is definitely interest in Brek from the teams in the Premier League,” said Shea’s agent Spencer Wadsworth to Goal.com. “But it’s not just England, its teams from Germany, Holland and Belgium also.”

Patrick McCabe, President of Santio patted little Spencer's head and went on to say:

“With these scouts, they don’t evaluate a player over a few weeks, They evaluate over a span of 7-10 months. Brek is in a good place right now and regular minutes are important.”

While it reads like two quotes straight out of Football Manager, I believe them. I've had Brek rated at the top of Major League Soccer's prestigious HELLTOWN BEER Top 20 list since June 26th.

What puts him at the top of the list? Well, I weight categories that matter to me (which was largely influenced by 12 yr old scotch). Meaning, aggregate stats usually lead you in the wrong directions. It drives me nuts when people say "he has the 2nd most goals in the league" when half of those goals are PKs and he's played 4 more games then others. Brings out the badger in me.

Brek Shea, by the HELLTOWN BEER! numbers:

-- 2nd in Goals during run of play (10), 1st among MF players
-- 2nd in Goals p/90 mins (0.42) among MF (Landon #1). 6th overall
-- 3rd most mins on his team
-- 2nd. FC Dallas rank in MLS True Table

Those numbers above are part of what puts him atop my list. Usually players have some weakness, but he has few.

No way to track them, but his intangibles are great. Good attitude, works hard, durable and a team player. Incredible shot power but his accuracy could use some work (31% on 61 shts). Could stand to improve his tackling. Jury is out on his leadership ability and he has never really lived outside of Texas.

There. Free scouting report.

Oh wait. The money thing. I posted on June 25th that he was a bargain even at $133k (£81,157 or £2500 p/wk). I value him, based on performance only, at $231k (£141k). Man, the dollar needs to improve.

Anyway, final exam time.

Can he play in the PL? Yes. Is he ready for the PL? No. Will staying in Major League Soccer benefit him? Not unless he gets major USMNT time. If he does? Then he should stay in Frisco for a couple more years until he has a decent transfer tag. If the franchise can be patient then FC Dallas can put a stadium closer to Dallas.

They can call it Brek Memorial.

If you want some real country to some FC Dallas Shea highlights vs the Crew last month. click HERE. I went over the top with it. But it includes the hardest hit ball I've ever seen (3:19). So, uh, that's why.

Despite loss, Crew Still 2nd in East. FC Dallas on Top for Now

Lighting a little candle and going with the optimistic approach after a Crew loss. Why the candle? Because I know when I go over to the CrewXtra blog space at the Columbus Dispatch later today I'll read a chorus of crap from Buckeye opps Blue Jacket opps - Crew fans (there we go). This 2011 iteration of the Crew is a good team compared to years past and I'll have the stats later this week to prove it. Yep, traveling all the way back to 1996 this weekend with my little candle shedding light in the cynical darkness that Crew fans wallow in recently. It wasn't always this way (dot dot dot).

Moving along.

FC Dallas played as well as any team I've seen this year. Hoping Bleeno has a few words to say on the team from Frisco. They are a legitimate contender for both the Supporters' Shield and MLS Cup.

Keep FC Dallas Out of the Box

After winning a couple games against mid-table / mid-talent teams tonight's road game against FC Dallas is going to tell us who the Crew are and what they are made of.

FC Dallas is a formatible team at this point in the season. They are 2nd in the league in Points (31) and Points per Game (1.82). They are also the 2nd highest scoring team in the league (1.42 GF p/Game). All that combines to equal a solid 2nd in my own Power Ranking.

Their strength comes from an organized, building MF that eventually finds a number of players in the 18 yd box. Because of this they are good at winning corners and scoring off them (5 of their 24 goals off corner, Columbus doesn't have any).

The challenge for the Crew tonight will be to keep them out of there. The last time Columbus faced a team with a lone striker / loaded MF was Chicago. That game was ugly. Chicago was very content to play for the draw and come out with a win. An ugly loss for the team.

Chicago lines up with a more defensive MF though. FC Dallas has an attacking one that will keep Ekpo and Balchan back for much of the match. Columbus will have to work the counter attack effectively like they have for the past two games. Anor and Gaven (Rogers and Meram) will have to resist the temptation to play on their heels, trust in the teams strong back line and find holes to push balls up to Heinemann and Mendoza.

If they can't? Well, then we have a Crew stuck in their own muddy defensive 3rd as they were against Chicago.

If they can push up and win? We've got ourselves a team to be reckoned with here in Columbus.

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Credit where credit is due. Both photos: NewsdayLaura.

Brek Shea and FC Dallas

FC Dallas stood out to me after spending some time with MLS teams and player performance in relationship to salary. Marvin Chavez, George John, Fabian Castillo and Andrew Jacobson are among the top under valued players in the league in that the are playing well beyond what their salary might dictate.

In all, FC Dallas only has six players performing below their current salary. From what I've found, this is superior team management/planning then all the other teams in the MLS. It could be argued that if it were not for the injury to Designated Player David Ferreira earlier this season the team might be even better at appropriately paying it's players.

One interesting piece of info to take a look at is how much a Point is worth currently in the table. In adjusting player salaries to reflect their teams point in the season I can see that FC Dallas (47% of season complete) is getting the most points out of monies paid out to players. Each point taken from either a win or draw is only costing the team ~$46,000.Under paying players isn't necessarily a virtue. In fact it can get a team in trouble next season. Will Dallas be able to hang on to players out performing their salaries? Or will they have to shed a few in hopes that they can bring in new talent at lower levels of pay. Time will tell.

In a league without relegation and limited funds paying players appropriately is a high wire balancing act that has a net if you fall. In the English Premier League, where relegation does happen, there is no net. In fact if you fail there, you and all your spent money, fall into a vat of acid.

One of the reasons I mention Brek Shea in the post title is that he is one of the players in the MLS being paid appropriately for is outstanding play this year ($133k salary, $205k value). The tall Texan is 21 years old and has six goals on the season to date. He is playing lots of minutes on a winning team. To put his goal scoring in perspective. His six goals are more then any Crew player had last year except for the one and only Guillermo Barros Schelotto (9 goals) had all last season. Ironically, for Dallas last year, their leading scorer was Jeff Cunningham. Yeah, that Jeff. He had 11 for them.

Let's keep an eye on Mr. Shea this season. He is having an MVP year. It'll be interesting to see what other teams (foreign and domestic) come calling later this year. Where he ends up could be a bellwether moment for the rapidly growing MLS. A league that is now able to compellingly stand on the same level as, say... Turkish leagues and lower division European ones.

Is it possible that we might see a USMNT in the near future that isn't loaded up with players riding foreign pine? Recent results by the MNT may suggest that picking players based on the simple fact that a club outside the US saw something in them almost seems antiquated at this point. Almost. When you throw in the fact that some US players are getting picked out to play elsewhere based 1st on the fact that it brings attention (rich) US viewers (revenue) and not player talent? American's gobbling up foreign teams are doing so for a reason folks. Ohhh, it's getting interesting.

Young Mr. Shea's future may answer that question and prove some of those statements.

For now, pull up the FC Dallas game tonight on your computer while the USMNT game is on the TV. You might see the future US mid-fielder putting one in the net at Pizza Hut park and wish it were him putting a much needed one in at the Rose Bowl against Mexico.