Sunday, September 29, 2013

Predictions: Crew (A) v FC Dallas

Good Morning.

The Columbus Crew travel to Toyota Stadium today to take on FC Dallas. Kickoff time is 8:30 PM EST. 7:30 Central.

GAME NOTES:
CLB: Lineup likely to stay same as last 2 weeks
CLB: On GD, tied worst away form -10 in last 6
CLB: 7 losses in last 8 on the road
FCD: Only lost 1 all year at home
FCD: Lots of speed up top
FCD: In danger of dropping out of playoff hunt

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PREDICTIONS
(in no particular order)

1. WIN DRAW WIN ... FC DALLAS
Leaning pretty heavy here at this aggregate betting site. Wise guys taking stake in a 3-0 Home win and only voting for the Crew 15% on the pretty accurate 'your vote' section.

2. COLUMBUS DISPATCH ... NO LEAN
Adam Jardy, beat writer here in town, doesn't appear to lean either way. Again mentions win makes hopes of making the playoffs more realistic.

3. MLSSOCCER.COM ... FC DALLAS
Four of the six folks on the MLS panel like Dallas. Only one picking Crew to win (Andrew Wiebe, the arch nemesis to any thinking analyst)

4. HOME TEAM ... FC DALLAS

5. WHOSCORED.COM ... DRAW
Graham Ruthven actually gives fans a glimpse of what this game might look like as far as play (a rarity in MLS); "A compact, yet eagerly contested game is expected between these two sides. A draw could be on the cards."

6. WV HOOLIGAN ... FC DALLAS
Drew Epperley (Big D Soccer on SB Nation as well has WVHooligan.com) like Dallas to win this one 2-1. "Columbus has been better under Brian Bliss but I’d argue that they haven’t seen a team that has the speed that Dallas has up front."

7. BET365 ... FC DALLAS
Dallas is basically even (10/11) with a draw next (12/5). Crew getting 3/1 odds in this one.

8. MASSIVE REPORT ... DRAW
Managing editor, Patrick Guldan is sure to mention David Ferreira, saying that he "is Dallas's biggest creative force. Clamping down on him will choke the home team's offense." Patrick thinks this will go down as a 1-1 draw.

9. TABLE POSITION ... FC DALLAS

10. GOAL.COM ... COLUMBUS CREW
Ives Galarcep again with the summary for this one saying "Standing in the Crew's way is an FC Dallas side that is heading in the opposite direction. Consecutive losses, both courtesy of own goals, have put a halt to a promising turnaround for Dallas, which has managed just two wins in 16 matches." I'm going to go ahead and put the Crew down for this one, even though Ives doesn't really lean. The reader pick shows Dallas.

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MY THOUGHTS, PREDICTION
There are precisely two MLS teams that have positive goal difference away from home this year. Just like last week when Chicago traveled to Columbus and got whooped 3-0 it's going to be a tall order for the Crew to get all three points this week down in Texas.

The Crew do have a couple things going for them, however.

1. Team has some pep in the step under Brian Bliss
2. Dallas struggling to win home or away

Dallas is clearly the favorite today but those two things point to a closer match than many might think.

Josh Williams and Andy Gruenebaum, who have been recovering from injury, are probably sitting this one out. Bliss, like Warzycha before him, likes to keep the lineup the same if the team is winning.

I have problems with this. Biggest one is that this philosophy has failed the Crew over the past two years. They have only been able to string a couple wins together two times this year doing this.

You have to plan for each opponent differently. For example. The Crew aren't good on the road. A lot of that has to do with Matt Lampson and his inexperience on the road.

Goals given up with Lampson as starter:
3 : at Houston
4 : at Salt Lake
3 : at Kansas City
1 : at Montreal

That's 11 goals allowed in his last four away starts. I realize this is a team thing but Lampson has looked like a completely different person home vs away. A Gruenebaum start here, even though he has been out for an extended period, might not be a bad idea if he is ready to go. Gruenebaum's motivation will be through the roof.

Despite not getting the results they might like, Dallas has lit up the scoreboard in last three at home (8 goals in last 3). They will be extremely hungry to get goals vs the Crew.

Bliss could take advantage of that if so inclined.

Dallas is fast. Dallas can be frustrating. Dallas is hard to beat at home. This one could have some fireworks in it if the crowd gets in to it (if they are even there, Cowboys playing late afternoon game).

Looks like temps will be in the mid 80s. Enjoy the game.

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