Saturday, September 14, 2013

Predictions: Crew (A) v Impact

Good Morning,

The Columbus Crew take on the Montreal Impact in an early afternoon MLS fixture today. Temps up in Montreal don't appear to be making it out of the low 60s so this game could have good pace to it. 2:00 PM EST Kickoff time.

GAME NOTES
-CLB: Injuries up and down roster, Defense is concern
-CLB: Higuain not listed in projected lineup
-CLB: On longest road losing streak in team history
-MTL: Currently 2nd in MLS (ppg). Looking to keep Shield pace
-MTL: Crowded upcoming schedule
-MTL: Di Viao brace in 3 of last 4 games

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PREDICTIONS
(in no particular order)

1. GOAL.COM ... MONTREAL
"The top team in the Eastern Conference will look to secure its footing against the desperate visitors from Columbus," says Thomas Floyd's headline today. Readers predictions on this site also like Montreal this week (67%).

2. TABLE POSITION ... MONTREAL

3. COLUMBUS DISPATCH ... MONTREAL
On the pulse and on the beat is Adam Jardy. After noting long list of injuries and probable absence of Federico Higuain, he says "...on the road against a team chasing the Supporter's Shield does not add up to a promising afternoon."

4. MLSSOCCER.COM ... MONTREAL
The 'pick 'em' group over there like the Impact across the board today. Matthew Doyle still holding at 50% accuracy (very good) with Nick Rosano nipping at his heals (48% accuracy).

5. BET365 ... MONTREAL
Looking like we are getting standard late season odds here for the Impact (4/7). Draw is sitting at 14/5 and Crew 5/1.

6. HOME TEAM ... MONTREAL
I list home team because it is one of the strongest predictors this season. Only one MLS team has a positive Goal Differential on the road this year.

7. WVHOOLIGAN.COM ... MONTREAL
Mr. Drew Epperley: "If anything, this may really knock the Crew out of the playoff range for good." He likes the Impact to win this one by two goals 3-1.

8. MASSIVE REPORT ...
Managing Editor, Patrick Guldan; "Montreal's movement causes problems with unschooled pairings and the Crew defense won't have had many practices together as a unit." Patrick see's this one as a 1-2 Impact win.

9. WHOSCORED.COM ... MONTREAL
Graham Ruthven see's this on as a 1-0 Home side win and states, "The Impact appear to have focused their minds and are favourites to take all three points against the Crew."

10. WINDRAWWIN.COM ... MONTREAL
Last, but not least, is the betting aggregate site and the now near legendary 'your vote' predictor. 56% like the Impact, 12% Crew. Wise guys seem to be making a stake on 3-0 win this week as well.

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MY THINKINGS, PREDICTION
The Crew have been miserable on the road this year. In fact, the current seven game road losing streak is the longest in franchise history.

Conqueror of MLS
The way I'm choosing to view this one is as a great test for interim head man Brian Bliss. He's the guy that assembled this group and now he's had his hands on these guys for a good couple weeks. Short, yes. But meaningful. It's not like he dropped in from outer space. He knows this squad very well and they know him.

A good showing here and the Crew can mark this down as the best win of the season.

An outright loss, however, could damage this opportunity for Bliss. Injuries have certainly run rampant of late but this team was build by Bliss to be this young. It was something the organization touted early in the year as part of the plan.

What we are seeing with this team, this year, is the result of building such a young team (and local Ohioans). Historically poor on the road. The experience just isn't there.

With Higuain likely not getting out there, Josh Williams out, Chad Marshall banged up this one has the opportunity to turn messy very, very quickly.

Of note: Since the only Spanish speaking coach (Iribarren) was let go the Crew haven't fielded non-English speakers (Viana, Higuain, Sanchez). This could be circumstance over anything but it is interesting and noteworthy.

Again, very tall odds but real opportunity for Brian Bliss to put a feather in his cap tonight.

Enjoy the game.

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