Unicorn Found! MLS Prediction

Season point predictions are just about as rare as finding a Unicorn frolicking in the wild, but here is one from Harrison Crow (Analysis Evolved contributor).

A rough general prediction for 2019 season. pic.twitter.com/AAmv6j3w3i

— Harrison Crow (@Harrison_Crow) February 20, 2019

Let's focus on the East because that's where I've gone deep this particular preseason.

1. ATL : 65
2. NYR : 60
3. PHI : 50
4. DCU : 50
5. NYC : 50
6. MTL : 45
7. CLB : 40
8. ORL : 40
9. FCC : 35
10. TFC : 35
11. NER : 30
12. CHI : 30

I'm not yet ready to put points to paper, but let us look at where I agree.

I AGREE

PLAYOFFS: ATL - Yeah
PLAYOFFS: NYR - Ok, I see them 4th
PLAYOFFS: DCU - 3rd is about right
PLAYOFFS: NYC - I've got them up top

CRAPPY: CHI - Horrible org, coach
CRAPPY: NER - A wasteland
CRAPPY: FCC - Just trying to get off the ground

I DISAGREE

PHI: I don't see it, like the creativeness though
TFC: They will be better than 10th
ORL: I have them last

THE REST OF AVERAGE

MTL: Average
CLB: Average!

I think Philly is the one I figure gets nowhere close to 50 pts. Maybe swap them and Columbus. Orlando is still absolute garbage, so maybe switch them with New England.

Here's mine, without the points:

1. NYC
2. ATL
3. DCU
4. NYR
5. TFC
6. MTL
7. CLB
8. NER
9. FCC
10. PHI
11. CHI
12. ORL

For the handful of Crew fans out there that still read this blog... I love that they are bringing back 90+% of minutes from last season. Some of that, I'm sure, is situational. Carryover minutes, however. One of the best predictors of success in MLS. I can see that carrying them up a couple spots if Caleb Porter can get it right.

2019 MLS Eastern Conference Rundown

Started a mini project last week. The target was to gather as much info on each player in the MLS Eastern Conference and use that info to evaluate each team ahead of the 2019 season. All done. Atlanta United is going to be the team out front this season.

Preseason Team Grades, to date:

A
Atlanta United
Toronto FC
Columbus Crew

B
New York Red Bulls
New York City FC

C
Montreal Impact
DC United
New England Revolution

D
Philadelphia Union
FC Cincinnati
Chicago Fire
Orlando City

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How did I get here? I've spent the last couple weeks working through each rostered player in Major League Soccer's Eastern Conference. I now have in my possession a mini-dossier on every player on each team. Player vitals (height, foot, birthplace, sign date, former club/team, etc), Football Manager 19, FIFA 19 and WhoScored player ratings and player value.

I used this information, along with last year's rosters, to create a best XI and bench (18) for each team. Here's how that looks.

		Player Ratings (avg)		TransferMarkt Value (000)
	Team	Starters	Bench	Starters	Bench
1	ATL	71.0	66.7	$ 66,429	$ 14,484
2	TFC	70.5	65.4	$ 25,027	$ 3,502
3	NYC	70.5	64.6	$ 16,303	$ 4,470
4	DCU	69.7	56.6	$ 21,934	$ 2,990
5	NYR	69.7	64.9	$ 20,192	$ 3,745
6	MTL	69.6	65.2	$ 13,410	$ 4,876
7	CLB	69.3	66.2	$ 24,671	$ 4,180
8	NER	68.7	64.5	$ 13,278	$ 5,115
9	PHI	68.2	56.5	$ 9,933	$ 5,529
10	FCC	68.1	64.3	$ 11,420	$ 4,790
11	CHI	67.8	63.7	$ 17,022	$ 3,955
12	ORL	67.2	62.2	$ 10,365	$ 3,309

The chart is sorted by "Starters."

Here's a list of top rated players (median rating -  FM19, FIFA 19 and last observed WhoScored). A rating of 72 and greater means the player is in the top 8%.

Rating	Name	Team
79	Wayne Rooney	DCU
79	Sebastian Giovinco	TFC
77	Miguel Almirón	ATL
77	Ignacio Piatti	MTL
76	Josef Martínez	ATL
76	Michael Bradley	TFC
75	Maxi Moralez	NYC
74	Kendall Waston	FCC
73	Saphir Taider	MTL
73	Marcelo	CHI
73	Luciano Acosta	DCU
73	Alexander Ring	NYC
73	Bastian Schweinsteiger	CHI
73	Fanendo Adi	FCC
73	Brad Guzan	ATL
72	Bradley Wright-Phillips	NYR
72	Alejandro Bedoya	PHI
72	Bacary Sagna	MTL
72	Nemanja Nikolic	CHI
72	Ebenezer Ofori	NYC
72	Gonzalo Martínez	ATL
72	Dax McCarty	CHI
72	Pedro Santos	CLB
72	Russell Canouse	DCU

Where players in the projected starting X1's fall, out of all 319 individuals evaluated:

Team	Top 25%	Top 25-50%
ATL	9	1
DCU	7	3
NYR	7	4
TFC	7	4
MTL	6	3
CLB	6	5
CHI	5	1
NYC	5	6
FCC	4	6
NER	4	7
PHI	4	7
ORL	3	6

When looking at the strength of starting XI's, I can also tell which teams have specific needs. This means a team has a position that is lacking a quality (average and above) starter.

Number of Important / Critical Needs:

Total	Team
6	CHI
5	ORL
3	FCC
2	MTL
2	NER
2	PHI
1	ATL
1	DCU
1	NYC
0	NYR
0	TFC
0	CLB

It's the positional holes that sink a teams season. Chicago and Orlando are way behind, at the moment. Add on that, three of these teams are in critical need of a starter. Orlando City, FC Cincinnati and DC United.

TEAM VALUES

Atlanta is tops in everything across the board. Most notably, Transfer Market values. The $66 million for their starters is easily double the next closest team. The seven players they carry on the bench is worth more than FIVE starting XI's.


There are still some moves to be made like Miguel Almiron, Kaku and Sebastian Giovinco, but for the most part, this is the way things will land by season start in March.

Value ($ millions) : Name
23 : Gonzalo Martínez (ATL)
17 : Miguel Almirón(ATL)
11 : Josef Martínez (ATL)
9 : Wayne Rooney (DCU)
9 : Ezequiel Barco (ATL)
7 : Sebastian Giovinco (TFC)
6 : Zack Steffen (CLB)
6 : Jozy Altidore (TFC)
5 : Nemanja Nikolic (CHI)
5 : Alejandro Romero Gamarra (NYR)
5 : Héctor Villalba (ATL)
4 : Gyasi Zardes (CLB)
4 : Lucas Rodríguez (DCU)

That's it for now. Next steps: I want to start adding where the player played as a youth and how long - also, do some work with salaries in relation to my evals and values. I'll continue to update these teams as the offseason moves along.

Thanks for reading.

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LINK TO EACH INDIVIDUAL TEAM PROFILE
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Preseason Look: Montreal Impact

Preseason Look: NY City FC

Preseason Look: DC United

Preseason Look: Orlando City

Preseason Look: Chicago Fire

Preseason Look: Toronto FC

Preseason Look: New England Revolution

Preseason Look: NY Red Bulls

Preseason Look: Philadelphia Union

Preseason Look: Atlanta United

Preseason Look: Columbus Crew

Pre-Season Look at FC Cincinnati

Predictions: NY v Crew (A)

Red Bull NY host Columbus today. These two have punched their ticket for the MLS Cup already but a win by one of the other means they could host the 4th v 5th 'wildcard' game. 3:00 PM start.

MATCH NOTES:
No notes this week.

MATCH PREDICTIONS

% Correct picking Crew games (last 10) Outlet 
56% (6) COLUMBUS DISPATCH ... NY RED BULLS (fav)
53% (7) WIN DRAW WIN ... NY RED BULLS
50% (6) MLSSOCCER ... NY RED BULLS
47% (7) HOME TEAM ... NY RED BULLS
47% (3) WHOSCORED.COM ... DRAW
44% (6) BET365 ... NY RED BULLS
38% (3) GOAL.COM ... NY RED BULLS
34% (6) TABLE POSITION ... NY RED BULLS
--% (6) MASSIVE REPORT ... NY RED BULLS
--% (-) WV HOOLIGAN ... (no pick)

MATCH THOUGHTS:
No thoughts this week.

PODCAST: Red Cards in Helltown - Episode III

Helltown on SoundCloud



Third episode of our Red Cards in Helltown podcast recorded today as Jim Bach, David Burgin and myself join host Rick Gethin to gather our thoughts on a variety of topics.

 01:05  SEGMENT 1 - Headlines
• World Cup starts this week, quick overviews, favorites
• 12soccer.com's "Bridging the Great Divide..." kicks off discussion on MLS
• David Villa loan to ALeague, future of big club expansion

 19:05  SEGMENT 2 -Columbus Crew
• Dominic Oduro, Álvaro Rey trade
• DC United (Jim called it, dull match)
• Berhalter sounds happy to David, is a striker coming?
• Trapp injury or The Conspiracy Theory (??)

 35:35  SEGMENT 3 - World Cup
• US Men's National Team
• Group G discussion
• A rundown of all groups, who's advancing, who isn't (saving these!)

 55:00  SEGMENT 4 - Quick Hit, Wrap Up
• Jim talks about top jersey's sold in MLS

That's it for this week, thanks for listening!

Predictions: Crew Rd 13, TFC (away)

The Columbus Crew travel to Toronto today to take on their local pro team at BMO Field. Kickoff is 5:00 PM Eastern (4:00 PM Central, for any Indy Eleven fans scouting their next US Open Cup competition).

 GAME NOTES 
CLB: Federico Higuain suspended (Yellow Card accumulation)
CLB: Reports have Daniel Paladini as replacement (Speas also possible)
CLB: World Cup absences; Giancarlo Gonzalez, Waylon Francis
TFC: Michael Bradley, Cesar out on World Cup duty
TFC: Regular captain Steven Caldwell out on suspension
TFC: Still have impressive roster, disjointed though

 TEN PREDICTIONS 
Number on left is percentage accuracy picking 2014 Columbus Crew results only.

50% WHOSCORED.COM ... TORONTO FC
Graham Ruthven is doing really well with predictions this year, believes; "Even without Bradley and Cesar, Toronto FC should claim all three points at BMO Field." Predicts a 2-1 home victory.

50% WIN DRAW WIN ... COLUMBUS CREW
Stake on Away Crew win (0-1) as well as 45% of the famous "your votes" (29% draw, 24% Toronto).

42% COLUMBUS DISPATCH ... TORONTO FC
"Gregg Berhalter likely will be privately pleased to return home with a point," states Adam Jardy in today's match preview. Says it's "impossible to overstate" Higuain's importance. Head out and pick up a paper today, nice piece on Ethan Finlay.

33% BET365 ... TORONTO FC
Evens for the home side (normal). Crew getting 11/4, Draw 23/10.

33% HOME TEAM ... TORONTO FC

33% MLSSOCCER.COM ... TORONTO FC
Surprisingly heavy for the Reds today, 5 of 6. Only other prediction is draw.

25% WV HOOLIGAN ... (no pick)
No predictions

25% GOAL.COM ... TORONTO FC
Rudi Schuller runs thought game points, notably states that TFC "may not have a better opportunity" to put Columbus away without the services of Higuain. Surprisingly, the Crew lead in the "readers predictions" section (where there seems to be a good bit of activity... more than normal anyway).

17% TABLE POSITION ... TORONTO FC

--% MASSIVE REPORT ... (no pick)

 MY PREDICTION 

Defoe

Mid-season games like this one can sometimes fall a little flat (especially Toronto matches) but the weather looks perfect (60s) and the lineups should be filled with guys that don't usually get to play much. So, opportunity for a spirited clash is there.

Even though Eric Gehrig played extremely well last week, Columbus fans will likely see Michael Parkhurst back in the line up along side Tyson Wahl at center backs. At right back will probably be Josh Williams, on the left Chad Barson.

The absences won't affect Toronto too much today as they still have ample ability to score multiple goals against a Crew back line that is missing two regular starters to the World Cup. What this means is that even if Columbus scores one or two, Toronto still has the ability to make that ground up. Flip that and the Crew don't have that luxury. They will have to play tight and smart to get a result today.

Overriding key to the match today is the absence of Federico Higuain. He's leads the team in all key categories and easily one of the best players on the pitch for either side when he plays (which has been just about every minute, going back through the preseason even).

Anywho... early match means still time for a movie or something afterward. Maybe even during if Toronto puts a couple up on the Crew in the first half. Enjoy the match!

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Site Note: Episode II of Red Cards in Helltown records tomorrow! Look for it Sunday evening for a succinct recap of tonight's match as well as news, notes and commentary on the rest of the league and upcoming World Cup. Check out Episode I if you haven't already.

Crew Rd 11 Predictions, Away to Portland

Late start for the Columbus Crew tonight as they are in Portland to take on the Timbers at Providence Park. Kickoff 10:30 PM EST (7:30 PM Pacific).

 GAME NOTES 
CLB: On Int'l Duty: Waylon Francis, Michael Parkhurst
CLB: Winless in last seven
CLB: Goal-less in last three
PDX: Starters Out: Chara, Harrington
PDX: 8 pts in last 6 at home (1 win, 5 draws, 0 loss)
PDX: Important 3 pts if they want to climb back in to season.

 TEN PREDICTIONS 
Percent correct in picking Columbus Crew matches only. Sorted best to worst.

60% WHOSCORED.COM ... PORTLAND TIMBERS
Graham Ruthven is on a roll. Likes the Timbers in a low scoring 1-0 affair, saying; "Federico Higuain can't carry the team on his own and they look lightweight in attack as a result."

60% WIN DRAW WIN ... PORTLAND TIMBERS
Portland all over this one. 2-1 stake and 55% of the Your Vote.

40% COLUMBUS DISPATCH ... PORTLAND TIMBERS
"It’s hard to forecast a Crew victory - or even a goal - until it actually earns one," states Crew beat man Adam Jardy.

30% BET365 ... PORTLAND TIMBERS
Getting strong home odds with 17/20 (23/10 Draw, 7/2 Crew).

30% GOAL.COM ... PORTLAND TIMBERS (lean)
No name on today's quick preview. Nothing really of note here. Handful of fans that have voted like Portland.

30% HOME TEAM ... PORTLAND TIMBERS
Portland has been near impossible to be at home but teams have been pulling out draws.

30% MLSSOCCER ... PORTLAND TIMBERS
Four of the six like Portland, the other two a tie. Jason Saghini leading the pack over there with 43% accuracy.

20% WV HOOLIGAN ... n/a
No preview today from Drew Epperley.

10% TABLE POSITION ... COLUMBUS CREW
Few more branches to hit on the way down.

0% MASSIVE REPORT ... n/a
Pat Murphy takes a look at Crew player absences due to international duty, give it a read.

 MY PREDICTION, THOUGHTS 
The Crew have everything to gain and not a whole lot to lose tonight. A late game win with a couple of key players out in the backline is sort of a get outta jail free card as far as a result. Speaking of the backline; it will be interesting to see how it plays out.

The Crew are lucky to have been able to keep Gonzalez for one more match, so they have him at CB. You've also got Josh Williams still available but some reports have him shifting to the left. The regular Crew backline is top five in goals against this year, so while a lot of focus has been put on a weak attack, defending and 'keeping is top notch.

Portland is always good for a goal late so even if the Crew get one they will be facing overwhelming pressure on a makeshift backline (that will also be out of shape and playing past bedtime). Hard to say the Crew have a win in them, though a tie would not be surprising.

Enjoy the game!

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For any regular readers out there I'm happy to announce that Helltown will have audio tomorrow (some call it a podcast). Rick Gethin will host with myself and a couple special guests. We are pretty excited about it and have some very cool plans. Red Cards in Helltown is the show name, look for it!

Crew Rd 6, Home vs DC United

DC United is back in town this evening to take on the Columbus Crew. Kickoff is at 7:30 PM EST. Temps will be on the cool side (60-ish) with a slight NE breeze (means it'll feel like -8 in the stadium, bring your blanket).

  TEAM NOTES  
CLB: Winless in last two
CLB: Only question to lineup might be up top (Oduro or Arrieta)
CLB: Still healthy, Paladini might make 1st app as a sub
DCU: Ben Olsen is still coach
DCU: Dykstra to start again, Hamid out
DCU: Last 2 are 1st back to back wins since Oct 2012

  TEN PREDICTIONS  
Percent is accuracy in picking result this season for Crew matches only.

60% WIN DRAW WIN ... COLUMBUS CREW
Large stake on 1-0 Crew win and 58% of the 'Your Vote' (DC 12%)

40% COLUMBUS DISPATCH ... COLUMBUS CREW(?)
Adam Jardy - Crew beat man on the pulse, like white on rice and bees on honey - notes that "the Crew will enter this game as a heavy favorite - just like it did against Toronto." Have a feeling Jardy thinks this one may go the way the TFC one did (noted). Pick up the Dispatch today, good stuff on possession and how players like playing that way.

40% GOAL.COM ... COLUMBUS CREW
Thomas Floyd took down a long quote from DC boss Ben Olsen praising the Crew. Olsen gives "Gregg a lot of credit" and singles out Higuain, Oduro and Trapp as good players. "They're fun to watch," he said.

40% WHOSCORED.COM ... COLUMBUS CREW
Previewer Gra... wait!? Not Ruthven today? Martin Laurence thinks the Crew have enough to edge out DC tonight 1-0 but thinks it will be "a tight match this weekend."

20% BET365 ... COLUMBUS CREW
Home team are heavy favorites today (8/11 fav, Draw 13/5, DC 15/4). Only heavier favorite this week is KC over Montreal.

20% HOME TEAM ... COLUMBUS CREW
Last out at home against TFC didn't go well at all. Crew will be looking to get back on track tonight.

20% MLSSOCCER ... COLUMBUS CREW
Another week, another major lean towards the Crew with five of six votes going their way. Only one picking draw, none have DC.

0% TABLE POSITION ... COLUMBUS CREW
We are officially into the season now, table positions will start to matter more as a sign of quality.

0% WV HOOLIGAN ... COLUMBUS CREW
Epperley is pretty confident the Crew will in this one 2-1 siting support as one of the drivers... "I see them bouncing back this weekend at home in front of their massive supporters (who killed it this weekend with their welcome to Atlanta)." Interesting. Because Sherman also "killed it," right? - an angry Virginian.

n/a% MASSIVE REPORT ... (no pick)
Josh Williams wants to make up for the last game and says the "Nordecke will be ready." Go check out Mr. Murphy's latest to find out more about what (a remarkably prepared and up to speed on DC) Williams thinks about DC.

  MY THOUGHTS  

DC haven't been limiting attempts against the last two weeks, particularly last week. NY dominated DC with tons of possession in their half and loads of attempts, but they didn't bring the shooting boots (and that was a DC home game).

It's entirely possible that this week's game will look like that NY / DC match up. United aren't a possession team and that plays well into what the Crew want to do but the big question will be if the Crew can finish. They have been well below average with Dominic Oduro leading the attack as far as shots on frame % (you want to be getting 1 in 3 on the 'keeper) and I don't really see that changing much today if he gets the call.

With open play goals generated from possession something we probably won't see tonight, it means is that set pieces will be the difference maker today.

Tonight's wildcard, however, will be Eddie Johnson. Eddie is healthy and is settling in with his team and his money. Once he gets all settled in he will get hungry for goals. Is that tonight or is it later in the year? I'm not sure. But with the team finally getting a few results I think his time is coming... and when it does, it'll come in bunches. Water finding it's level and all that.

Final note is related to Jardy's "just like it did" TFC comment. This week does feel like that (team even seemed to be very relaxed at training yesterday, according to reports). While Josh Williams might be up to speed on DC, most other starters probably think they are facing the same team the rolled week one at their place. DC was never really out of that game and had Parkhurst not drawn that penalty it might have ended differently.

DC is a much better team that that first week and full of confidence. It's an extremely experienced group made up of players that have all probably played well at Crew Stadium at one time or another. Throw in a very light crowd (by very I mean approaching 10k levels with the Blue Jackets playoff game starting at same time) and this match up could have a few surprises.

We see. Bundle up and for God's sake, take a blanket so you don't have to buy one at the stadium.

Crew Round 1 Preview and Predictions (Away, DC)

First game of the year for the Crew as they travel to the nations capital to take on DC United at RFK Stadium. A replacement ref will blow the whistle to start this one at 7 PM EST.

GAME NOTES:
CLB: Without Dominic Oduro, red card last game (last minute) of 2013.
CLB: Come off a good preseason, throttled KC in dress rehersal.
CLB: Won early match in DC last year 2-1.
DCU: Looking to erase last year from memory bank.
DCU: Lots of MLS experience on the team this year.
DCU: Eddie Johnson got paid.

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TEN PREDICTIONS
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1. BET365 ... DC UNITED
This changed from just two days ago (they must have read my tweet!). They've got DC at 7/5, Crew at 19/10 right now.

2. HOME TEAM ... DC UNITED
Reminder: Just picking the home team in every match will be the correct pick about half the time.

3. GOAL.COM ... DC UNITED
Thomas Floyd with the preview today and he just sort of runs through a quick fact check. Judging by what he wrote, I think he leans DC without Oduro in there. Down at the readers poll, looks like DC as well with 70% of the vote.

4. MASSIVE REPORT ...
(will update when preview available)

5. COLUMBUS DISPATCH ... COLUMBUS CREW
Adam Jardy is still assigned to the beat and thinks that while this one might be bumpy, "...the Crew has an edge with a defense that should be much improved from a year ago." Be sure to pick up a Dispatch if you can, also look around for yesterday's copy, it has a great season preview.

6. WHOSCORED.COM ... DC UNITED
Graham Ruthven with the game prediction going 1-0 DC, "DC United have done a good job of rebuilding over the off-season, but it could take some time for Olsen's team to gel." Also worth noting that there are a number of errors on the preview page (Oduro starting, Glauber injured?).

7. TABLE POSITION ... N/A
No games yet man.

8. WIN DRAW WIN ... COLUMBUS CREW
We've got an away favorite today, a special treat. Very rare for the Crew to get that. Wiseguys think this is 2-1 road team and the 'your votes' section has the Crew 44% picked to win (DC 25%).

9. MLSSOCCER.COM ... DC UNITED
Whoa, Cobi Jones joins the panel this year. Not sure who he replaced but they have kept same number of pickers at six. I'll check some other time. Anyway, looks like we've got 4 of the 6 going DC. Dir. of Video likes the Crew. Cobi likes it a Draw. Comin' strong, like his playin' days.

10. WV HOOLIGAN ... DC UNITED
League watcher Drew Epperley believes, "...United do enough to start out the season in a better way than the whole of 2013."

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MY THOUGHTS ON HOW IT WILL PLAY

Above: MLS

Tempered expectations for both sides this year. Best way to describe DC is 'wildcard' because they have completely rebuilt the roster, which might spell doom for most, but they have done it with experienced and very good MLS players. As for the Crew, gone are the lofty "the Cup comes through Columbus" expectations. New owner has new coach and reason has returned.

Looking at the lineups I think DC has the ability to jump all over the Crew had it not been for the fact that they are still a team learning to play together. The key to this one for the Crew will be to keep it from turning into a mess. The responsibility falls on the the Crew to hold this one together.

The Crew cannot win a multiple goal type game today. DC is much more capable of that than they are. If they can maintain discipline in the back and have solid possession in the middle they can come out of this with a solid point. Three points might prove to be tough, but who knows this early on.

Can't believe it's already here, game on!