Saturday, September 7, 2013

Predictions: Crew (A) v Sporting

The Crew are at Sporting KC today. Kickoff is 8:30 PM EST and a Sporting 7:30 PM Central.

IMPORTANT GAME NOTES
-CLB: Have lost last 6 on the road (only 5 GF, -12 GD)
-CLB: Higuain back in lineup after 2 game suspension
-CLB: 2nd game under interim coach Brian Bliss
-SKC: INT Duty: Zusi, Besler (USA), Jerome and Joseph (Haiti)
-SKC: Kia Kamara sold to Middlesbrough
-SKC: Only 1 loss at home in last 6 (+7 GD)

PREDICTIONS
(in no particular order)

1. COLUMBUS DISPATCH ... EVEN (NO LEAN)
Beat writer Adam Jardy notes key player absences for KC but also states the Crew "...now will face a road test against one of the league’s elite teams." Jardy doesn't seem to lean either way.

2. TABLE POSITION ... SPORTING

3. GOAL.COM ... EVEN
Sayeth Seth Vertelney (Goal.com contributor) "The home side will be shorthanded due to international matches, and the visitors, with a new head coach in tow, will hope to take advantage." Vartelney thinks KC is "formidable" but he doesn't fully commit to them. Reader Prediction leans KC with 50% of vote, 38% draw.

4. MASSIVE REPORT ... EVEN
Site Editor Patrick Guldan likes this one a 1:1 Draw and offers insightful comments on what might happen, "If Meram or Finlay are slow to tuck in, the Kansas City midfield, even under gunned as it is can do damage."

5. BET365.COM ... SPORTING
KC has heavy odds today at 4/7 (11/4 draw, 5/1 crew).

6. WHOSCORED.COM ... SPORTING
If I'm not mistaken it looks like Graham Ruthven is writing these up now? Regardless, key call out here is, "Despite the unpredictability of the Crew Sporting KC will be considered favourites to take all three points."

7. HOME TEAM ... SPORTING

8. WVHOOLIGAN.COM ... SPORTING
Drew Epperley thinks the Crew's "..midweek result was a good one for Brian Bliss’ first game in charge but heading on the road to Kansas City is never an easy task." Final prediction? 2:1 KC.

9. WINDRAWWIN.COM ... SPORTING
There is a large stake on a 3:0 Home win and the 'Your Votes' is very KC, 56%. All key indicators here point to KC but the are based on form not unique events (missing players).

10. MLSSOCCER.COM ... SPORTING
All six participants in this years Pick 'Em feature think KC are winners. Matt Doyle remains in the lead at nearly 50% accurate (impressive).

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MY THOUGHTS
It is very difficult for me to get past 6 straight losses on the road for the Crew (and only 5 goals). New coach is a good sign but I don't think this particular issue is all on former head man Robert Warzycha.

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It has to do with youth and inexperience. Barson, Trapp, Lampson and Ryan Finley have very little experience on the road. Last three results were horror shows ... 4-0 in Salt Lake, 3-1 in Houston and the straw that essentially broke the back of the season, the 2-1 loss in Toronto.

The Crew will have to play disciplined in the back like they did last week by keeping Barson and Wahl at home (easily the most notable tactic change Bliss has implemented thus far). If those guys get caught up then KC will get the two goals need to put them past the Crew.

The Crew are catching KC at the right time but sometimes a team that is missing key guys is a little more motivated with players looking to make their mark. You'll notice in the predictions that team and league watchers are calling this on closer than the macro betting sites.

Will be fun to see how Bliss approaches this one tonight. Enjoy the game.

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