Crew Win MLS Cup, Zelarayán Dominant

A fitting sendoff for Crew Stadium as the Columbus Crew win the 25th MLS Cup over the Seattle Sounders last Saturday. Lucas Zelarayan played a big role in the win, scoring 2 goals and creating 4 clear chances for teammates (one lead to a goal).

It was a solid team performance from a group that seemed to grow together as a team as this COVID season marched on. Caleb Porter deserves a ton of credit for guiding this team through this strange season.

His experience managing winning sides proved invaluable.

There were early signs this team was good. From the MLS Bubble to the time the team spent at the top of the table early in the season. It was clear that this team had the talent. The key to winning the MLS Cup came towards the end of the season - Porter seemed to sacrifice a chance at winning the Supporters' Shield in order to get key players ample time to recover. Porter didn't seem to mind a drop off in results. It was clear that MLS Cup was the goal, and it paid off.

Congratulations to the Columbus Crew.

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Zelarayan and Aidan Morris were key in this match. Here are a couple things on them from earlier in the season -

August 2020: Zelarayán's Early Success Shows Healthy Crew Environment

October 2020: Aidan Morris, Defensive Energy

Crew Season Ends

After a couple hard-fought games, The Columbus Crew were knocked out of the MLS Cup competition last night by Supporters' Shield winners NY Red Bulls.

Columbus was about as Columbus could be this year as they floated around a zero goal difference and went on long stretches of bad play. In the end, finishing 10th on the overall table. There's a little more to it, obviously, so let's take a closer look.

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All the hallmarks of a Gregg Berhalter lead team were here this season. The team held possession in most games, led MLS in crosses and were 3rd in short passing per game. This formula has worked, for the most part, for the Crew since Berhalter took over, albeit a little watered down this year.

The top issue for the Crew this year was always going to be scoring. Before the season started it was obvious what the outlook was for the team. I don't write about the team much anymore but I did manage a few words back in February:

"So much depends on Gyasi Zardes goals and how invested Higuain is. This season will be long and meandering with the World Cup, this team will be looking for a breakout performer."

That's pretty much how it worked out. Zardes. After Kei and Ola Kamara, he was ver 3.0 of a Berhalter number nine. In the goals department, he delivered. But that was about all he has in common with ver 1 and 2. He didn't hold up or work it back out wide when there wasn't anything for him and was ineffective in helping anyone else in the attack.

With zero assists on the season, we can point to him for the decreased production from the wings like Pedro Santos and the return of Justin Meram.

QUICK COMPARE OF BERHALTER'S NINES

- In 2015, Kei Kamara added 6 assists to his 26 goals, + a key pass per game to go along with 64% passing on 748 passes.

- In 2017, Ola Kamara had 19 goals, 4 assists, 74% passing (624 total passes) + 0.8 key passes per game.

- In 2018, Zardes had no assists, 20 goals, 0.9 key passes per game and 72% passing an 474 passes (25, 40% less than the Kamara's, respectively).

Outside of that, Zardes' goal tally on the road was unacceptable. Just 2 of his 20 coming away from Columbus. This lead to an anemic attack. 43 overall goals for the team this year was tied for 2nd worst in MLS. The team's 11 goals from 17 away from home was dead last, only Colorado with 12 comes close. The next nearest team was four goals up the ladder.

The goal here is certainly not to pick on Zardes and his season. Pedro Santos, despite being one of the better players with the ball in the middle third of the pitch, was ineffective in attack and Mike Grella was injured / out of the lineup to make up for the loss of Justin Meram and the speed of Ethan Finlay (going back a bit).

Santos, Grella, Niko Hansen, Meram and... I think that's it on the wings, just couldn't get anything going with Zardes up top to make this team anything better than mid-table.

Anyhow, outside of a stout defense that included Mensah, Williams, and Gaston Sauro - this is about the season for the Crew - Home effort kept the team in the mix and Away games ultimately killed it.

End the Playoff Scourge

Did you read the playoff news today about your local MLS or USL team? Again? How many weeks has this been a "Must win," or "Important for home field positioning."

One the things repeated around these parts is the circle of hell that is playoff talk. Over at the Columbus Dispatch, they are aware of the ridiculousness but do nothing in response to it. Here are some recent headlines from just last week:

"Ola Kamara's two goals keep playoff hopes alive"

"Heard this before? Every game is a must-win"

"Playoff fate now out of Crew's hands"

This is not to pick on the Dispatch. All news outlets in most markets devolve into mindless commentary about making the playoffs this time of year. Massive Report is a better place to get info on the team but much of the discussion still revolves around playoff situations.

The problem with all of this is that it detracts from what we are watching on the field. As in; the events happening within the game are completely cast aside for the End Result.

Important questions around play, style, player quality, improvement, future plans, etc are lost in the black hole that is the MLS playoffs.

What's interesting is that this playoff crack is much like a real drug. It's a quick fix and leaves you empty. Over in the corner of the Dispatch site you will find a podcast summary "Our reporters take a look at the disappointing end to the Columbus Crew Season." Like, they just want it to end already.

The reason for that is clear. They are sick and tired talking about a Cup that they know won't happen is because that's all they know how to talk about. They don't know the game. It doesn't excite them and they would rather be covering something else.

The key here is this: Not every sport is the same. You can't make it the same. Soccer, like the gridiron, like rugby, like hockey, is different.

For soccer, which has evolved in concert with common league structures all over the world for 150 years, it's having a tiered system where teams move up and down and a balanced schedule. This ensures competitive matches all season and championships for more than just one team (among many other things, but let's keep it on the competitive side).

These reporters who just want to see the end should be talking about next season in the lower tier. What players are worth keeping, what the budget will be, who will be managing the team. If this were the case we would be seeing the absolute best out of the teams out of the bottom right now. We'd see players and coaches trying anything and everything. Fightin', scratching, clawing. We'd see what they are made of. Really made of. Not the cliche you hear all the time.

But, we will not. We'll see two bad teams playing like it's April.

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This post is in addition to "A Competitive Myth"

What The Season After Brings

Going to cut to the chase here: Recent MLS Cup Final losers do pretty well the next year, just likely won't win the Cup.

There's more to it, of course. But that is the long and short. Here's a table that plots out the years around the last six MLS Cup runner-ups. Small group I'm looking at here, but in MLS terms, it might as well be a generation. "Generally," the teams that make the final but don't win are working through a three or four-year cycle.

Year	Team	Year Previous	Runner-Up Yr	Yr After Final	2 Yrs After Final
2010	FC Dallas	1.30	1.67	1.53	1.15
2011	Houston Dynamo	1.10	1.44	1.56	1.50
2012	Houston Dynamo	1.44	1.56	1.50	1.15
2013	Real Salt Lake	1.68	1.65	1.65	1.21
2014	New England Revolution	1.50	1.62	1.47
2015	Columbus Crew SC	1.53	1.56
	MEDIAN	1.47	1.59	1.53	1.18
	AVERAGE	1.43	1.58	1.54	1.25

Makes a lot of sense, actually. You hear about three-year plans all the time in MLS. Turns out it's kind true! You'll notice the bad news coming for Columbus next year. Massive drop off there.

Unless you're the LA Galaxy, you are not returning to win the MLS Cup after losing. If anyone can, I suppose Gregg Berhalter can. Not seeing it though. At least not right now. While Crew SC made the final, the playoffs were a hatchet job - the team losing more than they won by the end of it.

Year three is here, though. Should see a nice regular season for the team. Fifty-some points. I think that's about right unless we see a couple key players added. 

Here's a chart that shows the three-year, rise and fall thing I'm talking about:

Tuesday, Cup Countdown Continues

[continuing my freeform-ish posts for MLS Cup week, check out yesterday's if you haven't]

Woke up this morning to a Tom Reed article over at Cleveland.com on how a disaster of a Browns season will lead to a high draft pick. It's a built-in mechanism these days that the worst pick first. It's been this way for as long as I can remember, save for the NBA when I think they had regional drafts way back.

It's got me thinking about building teams in MLS...

The older I get the "last picks first" model comes across as elementary school recess nonsense. It's 100% anti-player. It does more to wreck potential careers than help and it's difficult to find a team in any league (save for the 1980s-90s NBA) where it as helped dramatically. It is what it is, though. Looking at how Golden State has drafted since they picked Stephen Curry back in 2009, you see a list of regular picks (as far as draft position) that most teams get up the championship team they are today. As a matter of fact, they haven't even had a draft pick outside of a guy named Kevon Looney since 2012.

[It's not just me, check out 538 and their 7000+ submissions to help fix the NBA draft]

How much of their success is picking the right guys and how much is it the environment they go into. I wonder if there is a formula. Like...

50% Coaching, development, training
25% Player Ability
15% Team location, environment
10% Media and press

If I were to grade, say, the Cleveland Browns it would look like this:

F - Coaching, teaching, training
B - Player Ability
D - Team location, environment
C - Media and fans

That's a poor overall 1.10 GPA on a 4 pt scale. For me, that first item is sort of a gate to the rest. If you have the development down then you can move on to the rest. That's the foundation.

For the Columbus Crew SC under Anthony Precourt, you see how they have built around the first item. Not just Gregg Berhalter but also with Josh Wolff, Pat Onstad, Sixten Boström and the rest of the team. Their score looks something like...

A - Coaching, teaching, training
B - Player Ability
C - Team location, environment
C - Media and fans

3.25! Hey, I kinda like this. I may have to do a rating of more teams in the future, but you get my point. You've got to have the right coaching and create that environment for players to succeed and then give them the tools. Look at Tony Tchani, Justin Meram, Ethan Finlay. Guys who were a season away from no longer earning a MLS paycheck are now top in the league and playing in a final.

You see this with three of the four MLS Conference final teams. FC Dallas is likely the strongest right now with A, A, C, F (3.30 gpa) followed by Portland with B, A, B, B (3.15 gpa).

NY Red Bulls are the odd team out here. B, C, D, D (2.25 gpa). Looking at it this way, I don't expect them to have a good year next year. Impressive this year, of course, but you never want the situation they walked into this year as far as the supporter mess and big time players heading out. It can galvanize a team, but it isn't a sustainable practice that you can build around. I guess some teams like the headlines, though, in those cases, I would create a separate set of grading criteria.

MLS does all they can to control player movement and entry into the league. They are coming at the whole thing from a different angle because the are a small fish in a gigantic pond. It's part of the reason there are so many rules, as a whole.

I think what Crew SC the last couple offseasons in regards to the college entry draft has been stellar. With Berhalter running the show the college draft of 2015 yielded exactly one start. His talent is coming by way of experience. Steve Clark, Michael Parkhurst, Kei Kamara, Gaston Sauro, Harrison Afful, Mohammed Saeid and Cedrick are all players that didn't develop in the college system or even really in MLS (outside Kamara, but he has since gained a lot of international experience.

Non-of those guys were "last picks first" guys or even really "MLS guys" (think; Dax McCarty). They are smartly chosen professionals. In a lot of ways their careers sort of match Berhalter. Not a bad thing.

MLS BUZZ

Don't think anyone was expecting a rip-roaring build-up to the final this weekend but it does seem very quiet out there. Last night on the local news I saw NBC4 had a reporter stationed at the stadium for the evening news but there wasn't a whole lot of gravity to the report or the event.

There was also this, I guess:

Just cried happy/excited tears when I saw @keikamara on the news. Then I laughed, "CBJ Forward." #ForColumbus pic.twitter.com/4WUqk5FCwA

— Julie (@jjulesjenks) December 1, 2015

Meanwhile, over at Reddit (somewhere) is a conversation about TV ratings. Things aren't looking good, sad to say. I'm thinking the English language will be around the 500-750k range and Spanish around the same (closer to the low). It's due to a lot of reasons that I don't feel like getting into right now. League has a lot to sort.

On a bright note, Mapfre Stadium sold out in about 15 hours. What aided this was that it was pretty clear that both Portland and Columbus were advancing after the first leg. Stadium is going to be loud and fun.

All for now.

Monday, Cup Countdown Begins

I figure that since the team here that I've been writing about for the last five years has made the MLS Cup Final I'll get a little loose and journal-like leading up to this Sunday's game.

11-30-15 Dispatch

First up is a little housekeeping note; The site podcast "Red Cards in Helltown" will be recorded later this week. The plan is to have it ready for everyone Friday. We sort of expected Columbus to advance (and likely host) so we felt like a preview show might be neat instead of covering the result. We've been all over that the last few weeks, though. If you want to check those shows out head over to iTunes or Soundcloud.

Next up is the sports page of today's Columbus Dispatch. The paper does a nice job of providing team coverage despite some comments otherwise. Adam Jardy recently got moved over to Buckeye Basketball shortly after the paper was sold so it looks like Shawn Mitchell will have the job until this season is over. My understanding is that no one has been assigned the beat on a permanent basis. Nice photo on the cover by AP's Julio Cortez.

Speaking of... there were a lot of pretty pastel colors last night after the game ended. I took a quick snapshot of head coach Gregg Berhalter getting interviewed after the game because I thought it was so neat looking. Games at Red Bull Arena in Harrison, NJ generally have a soothing blue hue to them because of the seats. The smoke muted that a bit and brought out some greens and reds, like what you get on a cloudy day.

The muted background also makes it look three dimensional in a video game-y kind of way.

Doubt it will look like that post game in Columbus after the final on Sunday. Mapfre Stadium is filled with yellow and gray bleachers and seats. It creates its own brand of neat though. During winter games the stands are filled with people wearing black or dark colors. When the stadium is full you get this sort of wildly intimate atmosphere. It's a cross between being in a gym watching a basketball game and a spaceship with nothing around the stadium but the vastness of space.

I got my tickets for it early this morning at the stadium box office. There was a decent sized line when I got there a little after 9 am. I'm hearing now it is sold out, but I have a feeling they will figure out a way to sell more.

The folks standing around me seemed to be in it more for the event save for the group towards the front who seemed to be supporters. A group behind me talked about the 2001 final that was held at Crew Stadium. It was used as a neutral site then and featured the LA Galaxy and the San Jose Earthquakes. Lots of memorable players on both those teams. At least as far as MLS goes. Landon Donovan and Dwayne De Rosario scored that day to give the 'Quakes the win.

Speaking of that game - I hadn't looked up the logo until just now. It featured elements of the original Crew logo, including rivets and the color gray (which is the forgotten Crew color). The whole thing is gloriously ugly, haha. What a damn mess. I do like the practical nature of the rivets and how the old MLS logo fits in. It's like a physical thing. To the designers credit, it does have weight to it. You sort of have to strain to see it because of the rollercoaster ride your eyes go on because of the sash-type thing and the railroad-ish tracks the ball is on.

Within the world of soccer logos, that design could be seen as ahead of her time when you consider the eyesore that is the new Bethlehem Steel badge. That said, there are folks that have done a great job here in Columbus and the Crew SC aesthetic. I'll post more this week but here is an example of what they are doing well.

Could be I like it because it reminds me of a header image I did for Massive Report a bit back. Sort of makes me what to set up a FIFA or FM simulation and pit these two rosters against one another.

Running out of time so last up here is a Google photo-edited shot of the Eastern Conference Champs Trophy. They had it on display in the team shop this morning when I was getting tickets. One thing this hardware had me wondering today was whether or not there was a separate trophy for the regular season conference winner AND the Finals winner. Looks to be only one trophy. I hope it is anyway.

Let's make it nice and big.

MLS Cup Would be 1st for Crew SC

Crew SC badge with '08 Star

It may seem like a "game the game" type of scenario, but a goal is all that remains between the Columbus Crew SC and the MLS Cup final. Score one during the Sunday, November 29th match in Harrison, NJ and the Red Bulls will need four to win. The away side could lose 1-0, 2-1, or even 3-1 and still make it to the 20th iteration of the MLS Cup Final.

MLS is an ever changing animal. Fundamental things like rules, number of teams, competition formats (both regular season and playoffs) and the money involved are drastically altered from year to year. So, while there are moments of glory of which to draw, there is no long history or memorable 2nd leg moments on here for either side.

Back when the Hunt family ran the Columbus Crew that won the 2008 MLS Cup, 14 teams in the league were directly operated, or recently so, by a handful of groups. Eight made the playoffs. San Jose had a team of some sort again and KC was still the Wizards. Conference Semifinals were two-legged series, but the Conference Finals were single elimination and the Final was at a neutral field in warm weather.

Seven years and versions of the league later, things couldn't be more different. Especially for the MLS team in Columbus.

In just two years after Anthony Precourt purchased the team from the Hunt Sports Group, he has taken them from a floundering franchise playing under a burning scoreboard and in a half full stadium, to within a single goal of hosting MLS Cup. It's a remarkable achievement. One that is a first for him and his team.

As for the fans, supporters, writers and even those lowly bloggers - where does this fall in their trophy cases? Well, while you would be closer in saying The Ohio State Buckeyes College Football National Championship is more similar to winning an MLS Cup in 2008 compared to MLS 2015, don't be surprised when you see the aforementioned group tying the victories (or losses) of every team in the state of Ohio in some form or another to what Crew SC are doing here in town.

This isn't about them. What's happening here in Columbus for Crew SC is a unique achievement full of firsts and truly special for the organization and the city.

Carryover Minutes Strike Again

It's the ops manager in me. When I first started digging into MLS stats to get a quick understanding of the league I made a beeline to player minutes. What I believed (and still believe) is that a stable roster is representative of a stable organization.

I've been on both sides of the turnover scenario. Even in the simplest situations, when you are starting something new you have heavy turnover. Same goes for when you make the wrong staffing decision or leadership change. More often than not, though, burning through resources (staff, money, materials, etc) is an unhealthy sign.

Conversely, maintaining a stable group (from the front office on down to the players) is a sign of a healthy organization.

Rules and regulations in Major League Soccer work against stability. Budgeting (salary cap) each team is just one mechanism the league uses, but it has the greatest impact. You see it most when a player improves (which is what we all want right?). A good year means a lot of players are playing at a higher level and want more money. This is expensive and a team's budget does not increase enough to keep up with it. What ends up happening is teams letting go of players they would rather not or making sacrifices down-roster with younger players.

It's a reality of MLS, but managing it has clear rewards.

Here's a look at how teams fared in returning minutes from the previous two seasons, on the combined table of 2014 to 2015...

POINTS PER GAME MEDIAN - TABLE POSITION (pts)
1.72 - Top 5 (58 pts)
1.64 - Top Half (56)
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1.23 - Bottom Half (42)
1.41 - Bottom 5 (48)

The difference between the top and bottom half is where to look, here. The jump you see in the bottom five belongs to both Sporting KC and the NY Red Bulls. It suggests instability in their organizations, though. If you are familiar with those two teams it sort of proves true. The Red Bulls are riding a sort of high post-Thierry Henry and Tim Cahill group and Sporting has cleared (significant way) for both Graham Zusi and Matt Besler. Looking at this way suggests that NYRB might be in for a bad 2016. Write it down.

Three of the remaining four teams in the MLS Cup playoffs finished close to 70% in regards to bringing guys back from the previous year and fall in the top half when looking at the last two years.

% POSSIBLE RETURNING MINS FROM 2013 & 2014 - TEAM - (MLS rank)
58% - FC Dallas (7th)
57% - Portland Timbers (8th)
55% - Columbus Crew SC (9th)
35% - NY Red Bulls (last)

Again, NY is the oddball here. I asked Justin Bell about them during this site's last podcast because I'm really at a loss as to why / how they had such a Supporters' Sheild winning year. I really like their team this year, but perhaps it is entirely possible that, be it this postseason or next year, midnight is quickly approaching on their special season.

The further back I go with "carryover minutes" the clearer the end of the road is for some of the better teams. Success isn't sustainable in the league's current format.

Much has been made about the final four in the MLS playoffs this year in regards to budget. The way I see it though, success this year means the Grim Reaper awaits in the next as player wages increase at a rate greater than the salary cap.

Congrats to the final four. Best of luck navigating that salary cap next year. More importantly, my best goes to the players whose careers are derailed by it.

MLS Final - Want vs Need

MLS does not hide their desire to have good teams playing in big markets. Los Angeles is the biggest beneficiary of top talent with Toronto and NY (Red Bulls normally or City FC) not far behind. Ever since Seattle joined, they too have landed huge stars. For the most part, it has worked the way MLS wanted as the LA Galaxy have been in almost half (9/19) the finals across league history, which includes appearances in three of the last four (winning each).

Is that the right recipe, though? TV ratings for the MLS Cup final (the league's highest-rated match of the year) have generally declined since 1996. Part of that is due to the move from ABC to ESPN, but those games have been steadily shrinking since the switch over in 2009.

To help turn this around the league gave in and allowed two channels to carry the final last year. It worked as far as eyes on the game. At first glance you would think that it was the star-heavy team in LA and the large market in New England that drove the uptick in ratings - ESPN pulled 1.0 million, it's best since 2009, and Unimas pulled another 0.7 - but in reality it was likely just one of those stars that helped it out... a retiring USMNT star in Landon Donovan.



MLS is trying out the same approach this year, only the final will be missing Donovan. Both ESPN and Unimas will televise the match. It means more viewers for sure but the potential matchups this year are far from what they had last year (not to mention what the weather might be in a couple of those cities).

Two years ago Sporting KC hosted Real Salt Lake. The game was broadcast on ESPN and it pulled a miserable rating of 500k viewers. Two lesser known teams in mid-sized markets with no crossover national team stars (sorry Zusi and Besler) played in bad soccer weather conditions.

There is a real possibility that this year the league could see a similar matchup. Even if the NY Red Bulls beat out Crew SC and host the final, they don't have the star power of 2014 LA (or 2012, or 2011 LA). The big market, yes. That checks off one box, but they miss on big names and good weather. None of this is to mention that the game starts at 4 pm in the middle of a NFL afternoon (in a previous post I noted what the NFL does to MLS ratings, see links at bottom).

This adds up to bad news for MLS on the TV ratings front. No matter the matchup in the final, fewer people will be watching this year.

How many fewer? Here is a look at where the teams remaining fell during the regular season across all networks on ESPN and FS1 (pulled out UniMás, as good as ratings were, their cable reach measurably less - different market as well, will get a separate post in the future).

MLS likely wants a Portland at NY Red Bulls Final

The bright side of this situation for MLS is they type of soccer that can be played by the four remaining teams. Each one of the remaining teams try to play the sport. It might not always be pretty, but they aren't out there hoofing it (Houston) around or fouling the hell out of the opponent (KC).

You can't overstate the power that Landon Donovan had last year for both the English and Spanish-speaking audience. There are many issues MLS brings on themselves in terms of scheduling, competition format, rules, etc... but one thing they'll get right this year is having the "right" teams in the final.

The league might not be happy with the ratings and the regulars out in the media world will go deep on what didn't work in the shadow of bad ratings, but there is good that will happen in that final.

It might not be what they want, but it will be a little taste of what they need.

Now... about this competition format.

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This post is part of my continued look at MLS TV ratings this year. For a couple recent thoughts on the subject, check out:

MLS TV Ratings Flat in Playoffs
Over There is a League
NFL Decimates MLS TV Ratings

Crew Trying to Right the Playoff Ship

It only took ten or so games this year for anyone tuned into MLS to realize that Columbus was a playoff team. After the 2014 New England playoff disaster a year ago I'm not sure what I expected from the local team a year ago.

Here we are, though. Halfway through the 2015 two-legged eastern conference semifinals. Crew SC down a goal after an away matchup with a strong, Drogba infused Montreal Impact.

Columbus wasn't just facing a good opponent last Sunday. With most of the players from last year back, they were also trying to wash away the sharp sting of last year's failure.

Both teams played their game, for the most part. Crew controlled the ball well enough while the Impact defended well and were able to get off quick breaks and counters. No surprises. The difference maker was that Montreal did what they do well much better than Columbus. They also proved, once again, that bottling up Ethan Finlay first leads to an ineffective Kei Kamara.

Earlier this year I dug into Opta data and discovered that the Crew average more crosses into the box than any other team in the 14 tracked leagues by WhoScored. Most (if not all) of that, comes from the overlapping wing backs and Finlay. All of them crosses to essentially one person - Kamara.

Laurent Ciman (photo credit: ©BELGA)

This isn't to say that Columbus can't play a different style. They can. They absolutely can (see the 5-0 demolition of DC United in round 34). If they want to be a team that can win the MLS Cup they will have to learn to play with Kamara the way they do without (if that makes sense). Pumping the ball in on crosses might put you atop a number of simple offensive categories against normal MLS talent all year, but it will get you nowhere against experienced defenders like Marco Donadel, Víctor Cabrera and Laurent Ciman.

Even still, Columbus Crew SC were able this year to hang with a team like Montreal in the playoffs - at their place. Reminder that this is a team that worked their way to the CONCACAF Champions League Final. Crew SC are not out of the woods yet, of course. This story could take a turn for the worst yet still. There is a real fear there, considering the Impact's roster make-up of intelligent and experienced players.

It'll be interesting to see how Gregg Berhalter approaches this weekend's game. Based on what we've seen the past two years it's safe to say it'll be the same as all year. Is that enough to go +1 on Montreal this Sunday?

The story of the 2015 season has been waiting this moment for Crew SC. Berhalter has proven he can create a winner (and winners) during the regular season. MLS Cup is a wacky place, but it's still the time on the domestic league calendar where games are games.

This weekend is the place he can prove he can do it when it matters.

Sporting KC: 3 Years, 3 Trophies, 4 Players

Sporting KC won the 102nd US Open Cup last night on penalties over the Philadelphia Union in a messy, rain-soaked match. This trophy joins the 2012 US Open Cup and the 2013 MLS Cup in what's getting to be a crowded cabinet.

There are four players that played in each of these finals as well as anchor a very successful run of regular season results. They are:

Graham Zusi
Matt Besler
Seth Sinovic
Chance Myers

Without Jimmy Nielsen (and, arguably, Oriol Rosell) Sporting's regular season results have slipped. Still though, overall, this has been a pretty half decade.

2012 - 2nd Overall, 1st in East
2013 - 2nd Overall, 2nd in East
2014 - 10th Overall, 5th in East
2015 - 7th Overall, 4th in West

One last thought here is on Chance Myers. I was listening to a broadcast recently where one of the commentators mentioned how Myers career wasn't what people expected - due to one thing or another. It struck me as completely off base and, well, bizarre really. It does highlight how success has never properly been measured in MLS, however.

KC sneakily created a stable backline out of seemingly ordinary American players in Besler, Sinovic and Myers. So ordinary, I guess, that three major trophies and an Eastern Conference Title slip past the folks paying close attention.

Congrats to that organization for winning another trophy. It really does appear to mean a lot to the group, from the fans, to the players and up to the leadership in the investment group.

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Here's a neat graphic showing who has won each trophy, each season (via Ryan Brister ‏@ThroughBalls)

Final 25% of Season - East Playoff Race a Dud but Table Position Important

A tweak to the 2015 Major League Soccer MLS Cup playoff format is making for a somewhat interesting final quarter of the season that is otherwise falling flat.

Change is the norm for the MLS Cup. The way it works this year is the top two teams in each conference are going to get a bye and placed into the conference semi-finals - while the teams finishing 3rd to 6th (3rd vs 6th and 4th v 5th) will battle it out in a single-elimination round to meet them there.

Were the playoffs to start right now, the seeding would look like this:

1. NY RED BULLS
2. DC UNITED
3. COLUMBUS CREW SC
4. TORONTO FC
5. NEW ENGLAND REVOLUTION
6. MONTREAL IMPACT

What this means is that both Columbus and Toronto would be awarded a home playoff game.

3. COLUMBUS v. 6. MONTREAL (at Mapfre Stadium)
4. TORONTO v. 5. NEW ENGLAND (at BMO field)

The lowest seed to advance in the above games will face NY RED BULLS and the other will face DC UNITED in a two-legged series. If Columbus were to win they would be guaranteed to face DC, regardless of what happens in the other game.

Competitively and financially you could argue that the best place to finish is in 3rd (which is where the Crew are). Why? Because you are playing the worst team in the group and you are getting a home playoff game.

EASTERN CONFERENCE PLAYOFF RACE IS A DUD

What isn't interesting about the MLS Cup is the qualifying format. Six of the ten teams in each conference renders large chunks of the early regular season about as intense as a Sunday rec league.

There's also a problem that the league is facing now in the Eastern Conference where the teams not making the playoffs are nearly locked in with 25% of the season to go. Projecting out the table based on current PPG shows a large 6 point gap between 6th place Montreal (proj. 43 pts) and 7th place NYCFC (37 proj. pts). Of course, it is possible for NYCFC and Orlando to make up the point difference but it would require them to finish out their final games at a 1.70 Point per Game rate. That's nearly 5 wins from the final 8 they have left.

Both have only 7 wins from their first 26 games.

No Pictures. Just Numbers. Sorry, Larry, if I Get it Horribly Wrong

Conservative estimate of next years salary cap: $4.5 million

Portion of $1.4 million in additional cap space which will go to current Crew Players: $400,000

Remaining cap space: $1 million+approximately $3-400,000 Crew not currently using

Taking into account historical trends in Major League Soccer, what will be the most efficient, re: successful, way to use the new cap dollars?

First, protect from the expansion draft:

Higuain
Clark
Parkhurst
Francis
Pogatetz (if fits with team)
Tchani
Anor
Jimenez
Finlay
Meram
Williams (if healthy, otherwise Gehrig)

Increase the salaries of Justin Meram, Ethan Finlay, Bernardo Anor, Tony Tchani, Eric Gehrig and Hector Jimenez. These bumps in pay should account for the majority of the $400,000 number above.

Spend $6-700,000 of the remaining $1.3-$1.4 million on a mid-twenty-year-old, proven striker.

Spend $6-700,000 of the remaining $1.3-$1.4 million on a mid-twenty-year-old, proven central-mid.

Win MLS Cup!