Preseason Look: Montreal Impact

Last up for my Eastern Conference 2019 MLS preseason preview is the Montreal Impact. A team that comes in as the last team out of the MLS Cup 2018 Playoffs. Montreal has become a team of missing parts and outstanding performers. Ignacio Piatti is the type of player that will keep this team in any game. His talent is at the top of MLS.

What's unfortunate for the Impact this offseason is the right-hand side of the midfield. There's nothing there. I was struggling to fill out their starting eleven. Ken Krolicki and Jeisson Vargas don't appear to have enough to fill this critical hole.

Montreal is a tough sell for players with options, which I think leads to the uneven results we see from this team over the years. They seem to have the talent identification down. It's just getting them in and motivated.

		Player Ratings (avg)		TransferMarkt Value (000)
	Team	Starters	Bench	Starters	Bench
1	ATL	70.9	65.9	$ 52,497	$ 6,067
2	TFC	70.5	65.7	$ 25,027	$ 4,315
3	NYC	70.5	64.6	$ 16,303	$ 4,470
4	DCU	69.7	56.6	$ 21,934	$ 2,990
5	NYR	69.7	64.9	$ 20,192	$ 3,745
6	MTL	69.6	65.2	$ 13,410	$ 4,876
7	CLB	69.3	66.2	$ 24,671	$ 4,180
8	NER	68.7	64.5	$ 13,278	$ 5,115
9	PHI	68.2	56.5	$ 9,933	$ 5,529
10	CHI	67.8	63.7	$ 17,022	$ 3,955
11	FCC	67.5	64.7	$ 11,014	$ 4,383
12	ORL	67.2	62.2	$ 10,365	$ 3,309

Montreal's backline is pretty okay. At second glance, talent is all over this team. They just have to fix a couple spots in the midfield.

Rating	Name	Position	FM19	FIFA	WS
77	Ignacio Piatti	Left Winger	75	80	77
73	Saphir Taider	Central Midfield	73	76	70
72	Bacary Sagna	Right-Back	72	74	71
71	Samuel Piette	Defensive Midfield	71	71	69
71	Maximiliano Urruti	Centre-Forward	71	73	71
69	Víctor Cabrera	Centre-Back	69	68	71
68	Evan Bush	Goalkeeper	65	70	68
68	Zakaria Diallo	Centre-Back	71	68	63
67	Rudy Camacho	Centre-Back	67	68	65
67	Mike Azira	Defensive Midfield	64	70	67
67	Daniel Lovitz	Left-Back	66	67	69
67	Jukka Raitala	Left-Back	67	68	66
65	Jeisson Vargas	Left Winger	65	67	65
65	Quincy Amarikwa	Centre-Forward	67	65	65
65	Anthony Jackson-Hamel	Centre-Forward	69	65	63
63	Ken Krolicki	Right-Mid	62	63	63
63	Clément Diop	Goalkeeper	60	63	65
62	Harry Novillo	Left Winger	62	69	61
61	Michael Petrasso	Right-Back	61	61	63
61	Shamit Shome	Central Midfield	61	58	62
58	Thomas Meilleur-Giguere	Centre-Back	64	58
58	James Pantemis	Goalkeeper	59	58
55	Mathieu Choinière	Central Midfield	55	60
54	Jason Beaulieu	Goalkeeper	58	54
0	Daniel Kinumbe	Left-Back	51
0	Clement Bayiha	Right-Back	51
0	Amar Sejdic	Midfielder

A competitive team, this will be - but also middle of the pack, will they be.

Crew Didn't Concede

The game plan for Columbus last night appeared to be to keep possession and not give up a goal. It worked, but maybe too well. With no true forward on the pitch, the normal approach of banging crosses in all match (though, it didn't stop them from racking up 14 - To whom? no idea) wasn't a productive option and forced the team to try and move around Montreal and get a good look on goal.

The approach yielded one official attempt on goal. Not good! But, that's ok! Because after giving up six goals in their last two matches (11 in their last 5) meant that not conceding was priority number one.

Right behind that was not giving up goals (or the lead) in the 2nd half. If you listing out "big topic" issues this year's Crew have, it's exactly that. Actually, it's gotten to the point where you may need to question player commitment, discipline, guts, grit and broad, sloppy terms like that.

What's weird is that Columbus only trails in games an average of 12.9 minutes. If you look at when Columbus is either level or leading the opposition, they are 3rd only behind Colorado and LA. What that means is that the team has zero of those broad, sloppy terms late in games (mental discipline, being the big one for me).

Avg. Minutes Leading or Level
80.0 : LA Galaxy
79.7 : Colorado Rapids
77.0 : Columbus Crew SC
74.7 : Montreal Impact
71.9 : Real Salt Lake

That's an interesting metric to look at. Right behind RSL you find a couple bad teams in Chicago (71.6) and DC United (71.8). It suggests inconsistency and having a poor ability to close out a game is right up there with, well, consistency and closing out games.

Up to this point, I believe this to be a bi-product of a broken back four in defense. The return of Tyson Wahl will help keep things stable, but he is a band-aid on a big wound.

Moving past this point, Columbus will have to play more games like this because of the injury to Federico Higuain. Controlling matches at home, like they did last night, will be important as upcoming games on the road, where the other team will be pressing, will not be easy.

Columbus stopped the bleeding yesterday before venturing out on a tough upcoming month where they face a red hot NY Red Bulls at home and two teams in desperate need of points on the road (Sporting KC and NE Revs).

The Hard Way

I like the guys that do it the hard way -- in, around and outside MLS in US and Canada... and then jump into MLS (and see some success). There's an amazing part of soccer in North America that many missed over the last four decades or so (many years before that of course, too). Mauro Biello, Manager of the Montreal Impact, is one of the guys that was part of it.

Shutout Needed, Wild One Expected

uh oh

Throughout the season, Columbus Crew SC have been one of the more entertaining and satisfying MLS teams to watch. Playing an attacking type of possession game has pushed this year's team towards the top in the goal scoring category. Second overall, actually. That comes from being fifth in shots per game and first in those on target.

With all that attacking comes a rather leaky defense. Looking past the two late season shutouts the Crew posted against Toronto and DC in the last two games of the regular season, the team was only able to blank one team in the previous 26 matches (Chicago on August 15th). 

Anyone paying attention should know that discounting late regular season games is important. A lot of bad decisions are made over the course of late-season runs of form. Think of the Columbus Blue Jackets late last year when they had nothing to lose or the Colorado Rapids this year in MLS. Last minute efforts when other teams are winding down and / or prepping for the postseason leads many a team GM or President astray. It's fool's gold.

The addition of Gaston Sauro to the Crew defense might be more about timing than anything. Sauro is a good player, but one person is not able to turn a poor defensive team into a good one. Montreal had no trouble getting quality opportunities last weekend with a full strength Crew backline.

Montreal has outright beaten Columbus three times this year already, outscoring them by 5 goals even though they've dominated by the Crew in terms of possession and shots. Interesting note: the Impact have taken 12 fewer shots (29-41) but gotten 6 more on target (18-12). 

The first two games between these two were similar. Lots of opportunities for Columbus but poor finishing. Last match things changed a bit. Crew controlled the ball but were shut down offensively. Were it not for a somewhat right-place, right-time Higuain, the Crew could be looking at a much different game today.

A Crew shutout win would be incredibly impressive, considering. I don't think it will matter who scores first this evening. Goals will happen in this match. When the first one goes in, hold on.

Crew Trying to Right the Playoff Ship

It only took ten or so games this year for anyone tuned into MLS to realize that Columbus was a playoff team. After the 2014 New England playoff disaster a year ago I'm not sure what I expected from the local team a year ago.

Here we are, though. Halfway through the 2015 two-legged eastern conference semifinals. Crew SC down a goal after an away matchup with a strong, Drogba infused Montreal Impact.

Columbus wasn't just facing a good opponent last Sunday. With most of the players from last year back, they were also trying to wash away the sharp sting of last year's failure.

Both teams played their game, for the most part. Crew controlled the ball well enough while the Impact defended well and were able to get off quick breaks and counters. No surprises. The difference maker was that Montreal did what they do well much better than Columbus. They also proved, once again, that bottling up Ethan Finlay first leads to an ineffective Kei Kamara.

Earlier this year I dug into Opta data and discovered that the Crew average more crosses into the box than any other team in the 14 tracked leagues by WhoScored. Most (if not all) of that, comes from the overlapping wing backs and Finlay. All of them crosses to essentially one person - Kamara.

Laurent Ciman (photo credit: ©BELGA)

This isn't to say that Columbus can't play a different style. They can. They absolutely can (see the 5-0 demolition of DC United in round 34). If they want to be a team that can win the MLS Cup they will have to learn to play with Kamara the way they do without (if that makes sense). Pumping the ball in on crosses might put you atop a number of simple offensive categories against normal MLS talent all year, but it will get you nowhere against experienced defenders like Marco Donadel, Víctor Cabrera and Laurent Ciman.

Even still, Columbus Crew SC were able this year to hang with a team like Montreal in the playoffs - at their place. Reminder that this is a team that worked their way to the CONCACAF Champions League Final. Crew SC are not out of the woods yet, of course. This story could take a turn for the worst yet still. There is a real fear there, considering the Impact's roster make-up of intelligent and experienced players.

It'll be interesting to see how Gregg Berhalter approaches this weekend's game. Based on what we've seen the past two years it's safe to say it'll be the same as all year. Is that enough to go +1 on Montreal this Sunday?

The story of the 2015 season has been waiting this moment for Crew SC. Berhalter has proven he can create a winner (and winners) during the regular season. MLS Cup is a wacky place, but it's still the time on the domestic league calendar where games are games.

This weekend is the place he can prove he can do it when it matters.

Predictions: Crew Rd 26, Away in Montreal

Crew travel to Stade Saputo to face Montreal Impact this evening, 7:30 PM EST.

GAME NOTES
CLB: Full travel roster (19), not always the case this year
CLB: On have one win in last 10 away (5 draw, 4 loss)
CLB: Back line questions remain, Finlay, Meram in MF form
MTL: Montreal have conceded at least 2 goals in 7 of their last 8
MTL: Outside of CCL play, season all but over for Impact
MTL: Former Crew man Dilly Duka should be in lineup tonight

GAME PREDICTIONS
Number on far left is percentage accuracy picking result. In parentheses is correct picks in last ten games.

52% (6) COLUMBUS DISPATCH ... COLUMBUS CREW
48% (4) WHOSCORED.COM ... COLUMBUS CREW
44% (5) MLSSOCCER ... DRAW
44% (5) WIN DRAW WIN ... COLUMBUS CREW
40% (4) GOAL.COM ... MONTREAL IMPACT
36% (4) BET365 ... COLUMBUS CREW
36% (4) HOME TEAM ... MONTREAL IMPACT
28% (5) TABLE POSITION ... COLUMBUS CREW
--% (-) WV HOOLIGAN ... (no pick)
--% (-) MASSIVE REPORT ... (no pick)

GAME THOUGHTS
Adam Jardy of the Columbus Dispatch writes in today's paper that it would be "shocking" if the Crew lose this one. Over at WhoScored.com, Graham Ruthven talks about the Crew going through a "mini revival." Home base hype machine MLSsoccer.com doesn't trust Columbus quite yet, somewhat surprisingly has 4 of the 6 on panel going with a draw.

Over at the betting sites we see that the Crew hold slight edge. BET365.com has home and away at 13/8 draw at 23/10. Win Draw Win your vote sections likes the Crew here, 44% of the vote (MTL 20%). Large Stake is on 0-1 Away.

Montreal's home record this year is abysmal, as is there overall, but the Crew Away record doesn't exactly sparkle either (one win in last ten). That said, seems to be little question that the Columbus Crew are favorites tonight.

The only question tonight for the Crew is how the team will approach this match tactically in the back. Even with Giancarlo Gonzalez, head coach Gregg Berhalter holds back a little bit on the road. With two big wins in as many weeks at home one wonders if he will approach this one the same way. There's no reason he shouldn't, but there is some risk there of some 'in form' role players regressing. Especially a few of the less experienced ones, as this match is on the road.

For a full preview on the match head over to Massive Report to check out Pat Murphy's conversation with Sofiane Benzaza of Mount Royal Soccer.

Weather looks agreeable, partly cloudy and in the mid to high 70s.

MR Post: Dispatch from Orlando

Spent some time gathering my thoughts on what I saw down in Orlando last weekend during the Disney Pro Soccer Classic. Head on over to Massive Report to check it out HERE.

Crew Rd 15: A Needed 3 pts

Last night's 2:0 Crew win over league leading Montreal is the first time Federico Higuain has played in a match where the team beat a club ranked above 9th on the league table (1 Win, 5 Draw, 4 Loss. 8 points from a possible 30).

1ST HALF
With a 'new / old look' lineup of Chad Marshall and Josh Williams anchoring at the center back spots, Columbus came out of the locker room with loads of energy and seemed to catch a slumbering Montreal side by surprise. Right off the bat, in the 6th minute, a venturing forward Matias Sanchez took a shot from the top of the box that took a deflection and went in. Things could not of gotten off to a better start.

Just about 15 minutes later Dominic Oduro stripped a lazily playing Collen Warner 25 yards from goal and took it in for an easy finish.

From there, Montreal still didn't seem to be able to muster up much energy and seemingly just wanted halftime to arrive.

2ND HALF
Columbus came out looking to defend their lead. No more huffing and puffing and chasing the ball around. Just simple defense and possession. In that regard, the Crew did very well. Wave after wave of Impact attack came and the Crew were able to withstand it.

Montreal appeared to be out of ideas by about the 70th minute. Their difficulties were exacerbated by the fact that they were playing without the services of Head Coach Marco Schällibaum, who was suspended for this match.

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FINAL THOUGHTS
By the end of the match it became very clear that Columbus wanted this one more that Montreal. Oddly enough, this was the second time these two have met and both times the Impact were without their head coach.

It was really great to see Bernardo Anor out there in the starting lineup again. It has been nearly a year since fans last saw him. Anor was an important cog in the 2011 playoff Crew side. He is an intelligent player, one of smarter and more 'natural footballers' on the team.

Also good to see was Josh Williams playing in a Center Back roll. Chad Marshall also made his return but last year Williams was the one that stood out in that roll, above and beyond everyone else on the team.

This win for the Crew breaks a troubling streak of futility against better teams and keeps them hanging in the playoff picture.

However, when things were all said and done after this one both clubs maintain their current table positions. Montreal 1st and Columbus 14th. The road is still long for the Crew but some strides were made yesterday.

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FOLLOW UP
Last game I looked a Justin Meram's heat map and asked the question; What position was he playing. Here is his from last week compared to Bernardo Anor's this week (click to enlarge):

Predictions: Crew (H) v Impact

Good Morning,

A well rested Montreal Impact team is in Columbus today to take on the Crew. Game start is around 7:30 PM EST.

GAME NOTES

-MTL: Looking for 4th Win in a row.
-MTL: 10 goals scored in last 3 Wins.
-CLB: 2 starters out for year Glauber, Gaven.
-MTL: Nesta will be serving suspension tonight.
-CLB: Defenders J Williams, C Marshall questionable.
-CLB: 1 Win from 6 at home.
-MTL: 3 Wins from 6 away.

PREDICTIONS

1. DREW EPPERLEY, WV Hooligan, writes; "Quick turnaround plus facing one of the league’s best clubs won’t help matters out for a struggling Columbus side." Epperley keeps a pretty good eye on the league and has been thinking the Crew would turn the corner. He has this one going 2:1 to Montreal.

2. BET365 has a fairly normal MLS line today, though it should be mentioned that things are changing now that we are approaching midseason. Edge to the Home side 11/8 but Away getting 2/1 (draw 9/4).

3. PICK 'EM team over at MLSsoccer.com has Montreal clean across the board. As a group the hover around low to mid 40% accuracy. That's above random but still around where they would be if they just picked the home team every week.

4. GOAL.COM's Keith Hickey usually writes a one sentence summary for each match. Today? "Montreal could solidify its grip on first place in the East with a win over a struggling Crew side." There is the word 'struggling' again.

5. WIN DRAW WIN tells us the wiseguys are with Montreal today (betting against the line). Large stake is on a 0:1 Away win and the 'Your Vote' prediction section is leaning Montreal as well (44% MTL Win, 20% CLB).

6. ADAM JARDY on the Crew beat for the Columbus Dispatch believes a win today for the Crew will be "a tall order". Of Note: My paper today looked great, as far as color registration goes. Best it's been all year.

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MY THOUGHTS

In order for the Crew to change their season fortunes wins have to start at home. Today's opponent is as hard as it gets and the Crew haven't beat anyone above them in the table in almost a full calendar year.

At this point in the season it is safe to say that Montreal is the real deal and not the beneficiary of luck or light scheduling. They are fully capable of winning on the road and doing so with loads of goals.

Even with deteriorating results over the past three years the Crew haven't really ever entered the depths of despair over any 5 or 10 game span. In fact the Crew have only dipped below averaging 1.00 PPG once over a 10 game span in the past year and a half.

Not entering the depths of despair isn't necessarily a silver lining but does point some degree of resiliency.

There maybe a glimmer of hope in there for the Crew if they can catch a rusty Montreal team that hasn't played in a couple weeks.

Enjoy the game, weather looks fantastic.

Crew Rd 6: Get Point in Montreal

Crew record a point away in Montreal on an iffy playing surface and a day after originally scheduled.

1ST HALF
Montreal might have had most of the possession but it was Columbus that looked slightly more dangerous. Federico Higuain's breakaway 1 on 1 chance on GK Troy Perkins in particular was the highlight. Ben Speas also had a good shot from the top of the 18 yd box. Ultimately, the half ended 0:0 with Montreal not really looking too interested.

2ND HALF
Montreal looked hungry to control the 2nd half with Di Vaio getting more opportunities by aggressively testing the Crew back line. In fact, he had a goal incorrectly called back that would have put his side up 1:0. Perhaps spurred on, Di Vaio finished a beauty from the top of the box into Andy Gruenebaum's right hand corner a few minutes after the bad offsides call.

Going a goal down against Montreal is not an easy thing to come back from but the Crew were able to pull it back off a brilliant Dominic Oduro knockdown then shot off his weaker foot.

From there though, the game seemed to wind down for some reason. Perhaps both sides were ready for this noon kickoff / delayed game / soft pitch game to end.

THOUGHTS
• A point is fine for the Crew away in Montreal but you can't help feeling they could have stolen this one.

• Jairo Arrieta was left on the bench for the 2nd game in a row. It has now been a month (March 16th) since his last start for the Crew.

• Dominic Oduro has scored in two straight games but neither have been a win for the Crew.

• The Crew would probably trade 1 win and 3 pts from last two over 2 draws.