Viewership YOY, MLS Fading

Over on Twitter, I posted a quick analysis of soccer viewership using the dates January 1 - March 11, year over year. The mid-March date has significance because it is almost all soccer leagues across the planet stopped playing. 

There are a couple changes to the "normal" schedule, still, this year, but for the most part everything is getting back to normal. Well, sans fans... and sans, astonishingly, MLS. 

So who is benefitting from MLS sitting out the month of March? Let's take a look. 

Below will show the top 50 cable soccer programs Jan 1 - March 11 last year and this year (same time frame).

It's pretty simple and easy to see what happened. Without things like the CONCACAF Champions League and MLS (US Men also dropping to lows in interest), viewers have shifted over to the English Premier League. It's even grown in its number one spot over Liga MX because of it.

I've been commenting over the years that the EPL is siphoning off MLS fans, and it is seen here as well. The EPL hits a sweet spot with US consumers of sports as it "fits" in to the routine and doesn't have to compete with the "big 4" directly. 

How? It's on in the mornings and daytime hours, meaning general sports fans that watch a lot of things (a good chunk of the MLS demographic) can watch that ("EPL Mornings") and then switch over to whatever they want in the evening (most likely some sort of basketball this time of year).

Again, I think it is a grave mistake that MLS pushed the season back almost 6 weeks. The Premier League is humming and both the NBA and NHL will be hitting their late-season/playoff stride right as MLS kicks off. 

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In the chart at the top of this post, it's easy to identify two events that have increased the Premier League's interest over MLS (and other soccer events). First, it's the USMNT missing out on the 2018 world up (the bend in my hastily put together graph) and now, this late winter/spring. 

US Cable Soccer Viewership, Feb 9-15

The Premier League on NBCSN takes all the tops spots last week as the Leeds United v. Arsenal match pulled a surprising 594k on Valentine's Day, making it the 4th most-watched NBCSN game of the 2021 year and the FIRST not to feature a Manchester side. This even led to the lead in "Live Studio" to be ranked 5th, in regards to EPL programming on NBCSN this year.

Top 6 NBCSN Premier League Programs in 2021:

1. 7-Feb-21: MANCHESTER CITY/LIVERPOOL
2. 3-Jan-21: MANCHESTER CITY/CHELSEA
3. 1-Jan-21: ASTON VILLA/MANCHESTER UNITED
4. 14-Feb-21: LEEDS/ARSENAL
5. 6-Feb-21: EVERTON/MANCHESTER UNITED
6. 14-Feb-21: PREMIER LG LIVE STUDIO

US Cable Soccer programs: Feb 9-15
Viewers (000)	Event/Game	Network	Date
594	PREMIER LEAGUE L: LEEDS/ARSENAL	NBCSN	Feb 14, 21
487	PREMIER LG LIVE STUDIO	NBCSN	Feb 14, 21
451	PREMIER LEAGUE L: MAN UNITED/WEST BROM	NBCSN	Feb 14, 21
420	PREMIER LEAGUE L: BURNLEY/CRYSTAL PALACE	NBCSN	Feb 13, 21
395	PREMIER LG LIVE STUDIO	NBCSN	Feb 13, 21
375	PREMIER LG LIVE STUDIO	NBCSN	Feb 14, 21
364	PREMIER LEAGUE L: LIVERPOOL/LEICESTER	NBCSN	Feb 13, 21
344	FIFA CLUB COPA MNDL FNL: BAYERN VS TIGRES	FOX DEP	Feb 11, 21
339	PREMIER LG LIVE STUDIO	NBCSN	Feb 13, 21
323	PREMIER LEAGUE L: NEWCASTLE/CHELSEA	NBCSN	Feb 15, 21
283	LIGA MX: SANTOS VS MONTERREY	FOX DEP	Feb 14, 21
272	LIGA MX SAT: AMERICA / QUERETARO	TUDN	Feb 13, 21
226	LIGA MX L: PACHUCA / GUADALAJARA	TUDN	Feb 15, 21
190	PREMIER LEAGUE L: SHEFFIELD/WEST HAM	NBCSN	Feb 15, 21
176	FIFA CLUB WORLD CUP L: FINAL: BAYERN/TIGRES	FS1	Feb 11, 21
167	LIGA MX SUN: TOLUCA / UNAM	TUDN	Feb 14, 21
161	LIGA MX: TIJUANA VS LEON	FOX DEP	Feb 12, 21
153	LIGA MX L: PUEBLA / JUAREZ	TUDN	Feb 12, 21
152	PREMIER LEAGUE GOAL ZONE	NBCSN	Feb 15, 21
125	LIGA PREMIER: MAN CITY VS TOTTENHAM	UNIVERSO	Feb 13, 21
115	LIGA MX L: MAZATALAN / ATLETICO SAN LUIS	TUDN	Feb 12, 21
109	LALIGA SANTANDER MRQ-L: BARCA VS. ALAVES	BEIN ESP	Feb 13, 21
86	LALIGA SANTANDER MRQ-L: REAL VS. VALENCIA	BEIN ESP	Feb 14, 21
76	LIGA MX EN 60	TUDN	Feb 13, 21
66	LIGA PREMIER EXTRA	UNIVERSO	Feb 13, 21

Soccer TV Ratings, Oct 16 - 22

I stayed close to soccer TV ratings back between 2012-16 but dropped off because it became pretty same-y. However, after the pandemic hit a spark was lit. Here I am now, again, tracking tv ratings. 

So, since June 2020 (when team sports returned after the lockdown), I've been filling up my little spreadsheets again with viewership data. I'll post here on a regular basis in front of new TV deals planned to come for MLS in the coming year. 

One last note. There is a lot more soccer on TV now than just a few years ago.

Top US Cable Soccer programs Thurs Oct 16 - Thursday Oct22
Viewers (000)	Event/Game	Network	Date
554	PREMIER LEAGUE L: SOUTHAMPTON/CHELSEA	NBCSN	Oct 17, 20
410	PREMIER LEAGUE L: LIVERPOOL/EVERTON	NBCSN	Oct 17, 20
397	PREMIER LG LIVE STUDIO	NBCSN	Oct 17, 20
385	PREMIER LEAGUE L: WEST HAM/TOTTENHAM	NBCSN	Oct 18, 20
363	PREMIER LG LIVE STUDIO	NBCSN	Oct 17, 20
205	PREMIER LEAGUE L: WOLVES/LEEDS	NBCSN	Oct 19, 20
197	UEFA CHAMP LEAGUE: BAYERN VS. ATLETICO	TUDN	Oct 21, 20
183	UEFA CHAMPIONS LEAG: PARIS VS MAN UNITED	GALAVISION	Oct 20, 20
182	UEFA CHAMP LEAGUE:BARCELONA/FERENCVAROSI	TUDN	Oct 20, 20
167	PREMIER LG LIVE STUDIO	NBCSN	Oct 18, 20
149	PREMIER LG LIVE STUDIO	NBCSN	Oct 18, 20
143	UEFA CHAMP LEAGUE: REAL MADRID/ SHAKHTAR	TUDN	Oct 21, 20
131	MAJOR LEAGUE SOCCER L: SEATTLE/PORTLAND	FS1	Oct 22, 20
124	MAJOR LEAGUE SOCCER: NASHVILLE/DALLAS	FS1	Oct 20, 20
107	PREMIER LG LIVE STUDIO	NBCSN	Oct 19, 20
85	UEFA CHAMP LEAGUE: DYNAMO KYIV / JUVENTUS	TUDN	Oct 20, 20
81	MLS EN 60	TUDN	Oct 17, 20
70	UEFA NTN LGUE HIGHLIGHTS	ESPN	Oct 18, 20

FS1 MLS ratings are falling

FS1 has a major Major League Soccer problem. There's no way to spin the numbers above. I can't imagine the league is happy with this performance.

What's the problem? ESPN and UDN are hanging in there (mostly). ESPN moved a lot of games from ESPN2 to the flagship station this year to try and get it to catch fire. It's kinda worked, but it's normal for the weekly MLS game to have the lowest rated program on the day. 

Fox is something different this year, however. It's bad and falling. Even before the Olympics started. 

There are a number of reasons for this. First and foremost, for me, is the competitive MLS format. It's phony-baloney. This impacts the other nets as well, of course. From there you have guys calling games that shouldn't even be near the local high school games. Alexi Lalas leads the way, here. Rob Stone a close second. It's just not working (I cringe each time I see a new tweet from Lalas). Another issue with the broadcast is the giant ad break-ins where the game screen shrinks to accommodate an advertiser. It's an action killer. 

This isn't some blogger opinion. The numbers are garbage and getting worse. The dip you see in 2015 is when the NFL kicked off. I'm expecting MLS ratings on FS1 to fall off the edge of the earth this year. 

Top Rated Copa / Euro

No surprise that USA and Mexico dominated the summer soccer tournament cable TV ratings this summer. Viewership grew with each passing round. Leading the way was the USA v. Argentina match on FS1 with 2.7 million viewers, followed by USA v Ecuador (1.9m), USA v Paraguay (1.8m), Mexico v Jamaica (1.8m), Mexico v Chile (1.6m).

The only game to crack the top seven between EURO 2016 and Copa America was the Argentina v. Chile final with 2.5 million viewers (+ another 1.6 from UDN).

Putting Mexico and USA aside, what are the most watched games between the two tournaments (so far, as EURO is still going)?

Viewers : Tournament : Event - Network
2,529 : COPA : ARGENTINA / CHILE - FS1
1,608 : COPA : F: ARGENTINA / CHILE - UDN
1,593 : EURO : CROATIA / PORTUGAL - ESPN
1,403 : EURO : GERMANY / SLOVAKIA - ESPN
1,359 : EURO : WALES / NORTHERN IRELAND - ESPN
1,263 : EURO : HUNGARY / BELGIUM - ESPN
1,217 : COPA : COLOMBIA / CHILE - UDN
1,200 : EURO : ENGLAND / RUSSIA - ESPN
1,168 : EURO : GERMANY / UKRAINE - ESPN
1,157 : COPA : ARGENTINA / CHILE - UDN
1,095 : EURO : PORTUGAL / AUSTRIA - ESPN
1,035 : COPA : ARGENTINA / VENEZUELA - FX
1,009 : EURO : FRANCE / REPUBLIC OF IRELAND - ESPN
995 : COPA : ARGENTINA / VENEZUELA - UDN
985 : COPA : BRAZIL / PERU - UDN
983 : EURO : SWITZERLAND / FRANCE - ESPN
971 : COPA : COLOMBIA / CHILE - FS1
970 : COPA : COLOMBIA / COSTA RICA - UDN
968 : EURO : ICELAND / HUNGARY - ESPN

Top Rated in June, Cowherd Thoughts

Making a note here, before Euro 2016 starts over on ESPN. This is June 1 - June 9 and cable sporting events only.

Viewers - Event (Network)
3,490 - WWE: Raw (USA)
3,371 - WWE: Raw (USA)
2,903 - WWE: Raw (USA)
2,789 - NHL: Pittsburgh vs. San Jose (NBCSN)
2,507 - NHL: Pittsburgh vs. San Jose (NBCSN)
2,169 - WWE: Smackdown (USA)
1,996 - WWE: Smackdown (USA)
1,788 - Copa America: Mexico vs. Jamaica (UDN)
1,476 - College Softball: Auburn vs. Oklahoma (ESPN)
1,453 - Copa America: USA vs Costa Rica (FS1)
1,430 - College Softball: Auburn vs. Oklahoma (ESPN)
1,385 - NASCAR: Pocono (FS1)
1,377 - NASCAR: Pocono (FS1)
1,357 - MLB: San Francisco vs. St. Louis (ESPN)
1,302 - Copa America: USA vs. Columbia (FS1)

Despite empty stadiums, Copa America is all over the top programs in June. Lots of games, lots of repeats that people seem to be watching. It's got US sports personality Colin Cowherd taking about the popularity of soccer (video below) in the USA. It's an interesting conversation, but one that's been going on for generations. Soccer has been "top four" for some time. Just doesn't have a top four league in the US. MLS would be lucky to crack top 10 in the US when you include things like college sports and WWE and racing.

The overlap with Euro 2016 is going to be very interesting. The expanded tournament kicked off last night and is loaded with games (ie. content) for weeks.

Side note: These numbers for college softball are huge. For comparison, MLS Cup Final ratings haven't been able to crack one million for years on ESPN.

Has soccer replaced ice hockey as a "Big Four" sport in America? @ColinCowherd thinks so. #CopaAmerica https://t.co/M7auhnwaXh

— FOX Soccer (@FOXSoccer) June 10, 2016

'16 MLS TV Schedule, Thoughts

Major League Soccer announced their national TV schedule last week. A few surprises, but for anyone close to the league it looks similar to last year. MLS is in the second year of an eight-year bundled deal with ESPN, Unimas and FOX that includes US Men's National Team games.

Four Schedule Highlights:
[1] 4 games "over the air" on Fox. First broadcast is in May, the rest are in July
[2] Sporting KC - Eleven games at Home
[3] One home match: Dallas, Columbus, New England
[4] 92 regular season games featured (15%)

It's no secret that MLS performed poorly in the first year of the current TV rights set up. How bad was it? So bad it prompted a piece in the, otherwise largely PR magazine, Sports Business Journal.

More people watched the LPGA Evian Masters final round in mid-September on NBC (696,000 viewers) than last month’s MLS Cup on ESPN (668,000). About the same number of people tuned into July’s Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest on ESPN (1.1. million) as the combined number of MLS Cup viewers on ESPN and Univision (1.2 million). - John Ourand, "Sunday is simply too crowded for MLS championship"

Mr. Ourand goes on to offer a couple suggestions as to how to "fix" this problem - hold a mid-week Final or hold it after the College Football season has ended. Both are fine but the come from the perspective that MLS needs to fit into the casual US sports fan's schedule.

US Sports Fan's Schedule*:
January: Bowl games, NFL playoffs
February: NFL Playoffs
March: March Madness, College BB
April: NBA, NHL playoffs, Masters
May: MLB, Kentucky Derby, PGA
June: MLB, PGA
July: MLB, PGA
August: Start of NFL
September: NFL, MLB late season
October: MLB, NFL, College FB
November: NFL, College FB
December: NFL
*Generally

Looking at the general list of events it is easy to see why MLS picked out the summer to hold games, but it also shows how narrow-minded and US focused they were as FIFA events are played during those summer months.

This year US sports fan will be watching either Euro 2016, Copa America or the Summer Olympics on top of their normal summer activities. Combine that with global soccer powerhouses coming over to the US to play friendlies, often between themselves, and things get messy for the league on TV.

Because of this MLS / SUM / USSF (in essence, they same corporation) is oddly competing with themselves during that time of year.

The TV problem for MLS falls into the severe issue category and the changing landscape of program consumption only compounds the issue.

There are solutions, but they require some rather large egos to humble themselves and have a come to Jesus moment. By that I mean - step back and look at it with fresh eyes. 20 teams, two conferences, unbalanced schedule and an ever-changing playoff cup competition will never get these guys to where they want to go. Nor will it energize a nation to change viewing habits.

Best case scenario for MLS is for their ratings in 2016 to look like 2015. A Challenge, though, because Euro 2016 and Copa America will blot out the league for a couple months this summer.

Right after that, it's back to club friendlies.

#MLS

MLS Final - Want vs Need

MLS does not hide their desire to have good teams playing in big markets. Los Angeles is the biggest beneficiary of top talent with Toronto and NY (Red Bulls normally or City FC) not far behind. Ever since Seattle joined, they too have landed huge stars. For the most part, it has worked the way MLS wanted as the LA Galaxy have been in almost half (9/19) the finals across league history, which includes appearances in three of the last four (winning each).

Is that the right recipe, though? TV ratings for the MLS Cup final (the league's highest-rated match of the year) have generally declined since 1996. Part of that is due to the move from ABC to ESPN, but those games have been steadily shrinking since the switch over in 2009.

To help turn this around the league gave in and allowed two channels to carry the final last year. It worked as far as eyes on the game. At first glance you would think that it was the star-heavy team in LA and the large market in New England that drove the uptick in ratings - ESPN pulled 1.0 million, it's best since 2009, and Unimas pulled another 0.7 - but in reality it was likely just one of those stars that helped it out... a retiring USMNT star in Landon Donovan.



MLS is trying out the same approach this year, only the final will be missing Donovan. Both ESPN and Unimas will televise the match. It means more viewers for sure but the potential matchups this year are far from what they had last year (not to mention what the weather might be in a couple of those cities).

Two years ago Sporting KC hosted Real Salt Lake. The game was broadcast on ESPN and it pulled a miserable rating of 500k viewers. Two lesser known teams in mid-sized markets with no crossover national team stars (sorry Zusi and Besler) played in bad soccer weather conditions.

There is a real possibility that this year the league could see a similar matchup. Even if the NY Red Bulls beat out Crew SC and host the final, they don't have the star power of 2014 LA (or 2012, or 2011 LA). The big market, yes. That checks off one box, but they miss on big names and good weather. None of this is to mention that the game starts at 4 pm in the middle of a NFL afternoon (in a previous post I noted what the NFL does to MLS ratings, see links at bottom).

This adds up to bad news for MLS on the TV ratings front. No matter the matchup in the final, fewer people will be watching this year.

How many fewer? Here is a look at where the teams remaining fell during the regular season across all networks on ESPN and FS1 (pulled out UniMás, as good as ratings were, their cable reach measurably less - different market as well, will get a separate post in the future).

MLS likely wants a Portland at NY Red Bulls Final

The bright side of this situation for MLS is they type of soccer that can be played by the four remaining teams. Each one of the remaining teams try to play the sport. It might not always be pretty, but they aren't out there hoofing it (Houston) around or fouling the hell out of the opponent (KC).

You can't overstate the power that Landon Donovan had last year for both the English and Spanish-speaking audience. There are many issues MLS brings on themselves in terms of scheduling, competition format, rules, etc... but one thing they'll get right this year is having the "right" teams in the final.

The league might not be happy with the ratings and the regulars out in the media world will go deep on what didn't work in the shadow of bad ratings, but there is good that will happen in that final.

It might not be what they want, but it will be a little taste of what they need.

Now... about this competition format.

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This post is part of my continued look at MLS TV ratings this year. For a couple recent thoughts on the subject, check out:

MLS TV Ratings Flat in Playoffs
Over There is a League
NFL Decimates MLS TV Ratings