Bruce Arena Prior to Game at Crew Stadium, Aug 2014

Continuing my search and share of never used MLS pictures; Above is a photo by Joe Maiorna taken for USA Today Sports. It is a photo that I very much like. Bruce Arena is a larger than life figure to guys like me. He's one of the only guys in the league left that transcends Major League Soccer. For a league that boasts about only engaging 18-34 year old demographic new to the sport (and actively discouraging the rest), there is something about that I like.

"Because they are children and there have to be adults in the process, and we didn’t have enough of them. I think we are back into the old days in the league when the rules are somewhat arbitrary. Hopefully we will get that straightened out in the offseason." - Bruce Arena, in my favorite interview of the year with Steve Goff of the Washington Post.

Arena helped drag the sport out of the post NASL era and put the USA back on the worldwide soccer map. In this picture he is seen strolling the touchline of a stadium that he, at least in some part, has something to do with. Now one of his students, a generation or so on, is coaching the Columbus Crew in Gregg Berhalter.

Did I mention that this is a picture I very much like?

Crew Rd 17. Incomplete Team, Loss

After going up +1 in the first half, Sporting Kansas City were able to respond each time the Crew pulled even in the second. The game ended +1 in favor of the home side.

1ST HALF
Sporting controlled most of the half through the midfield. Part of the reason for this was because the Crew went with a striker on the left side in Jairo Arrieta. KC had a number of opportunities that they were wasteful with.

The Crew never seemed to be able to get into this one in the first half.

2ND HALF
The coaching staff of the Crew decided to make an adjustment by moving Arrieta from his left mid spot to the top and shift Oduro back into the midfield (on the left). This didn't necessarly improve the team in the midfield but it did put a very good striker back into his natural (trained whole life for) role.

The change seemed to catch Sporting a little off guard and ripped open the game. It only took three minutes for Arrieta to reward the change when he took the ball 60+ yds down the pitch for a goal.

Two minutes later Chance Myers whipped in a cross from the right side that skimmed off Tyson Wahl's head right to Claudio Bieler who slotted away a nice shot past confused Crew GK Andy Gruenebuam.

Three minutes after that another goal. This time from a bad Seth Sinovic back pass to Jimmy Nielsen. Oduro did what hes does and was there for the steal and goal. Sinovic would be subbed shortly after.

The game settle a little from there and looked more like the first half. KC found their rhythm again and easily out possessed a Crew team that couldn't put more than a couple passes together.

Late on in the 80th, Wahl again managed to deflect a header in to the path of an alert Bieler who headed to Kei Kamara for a goal.

Crew went into berserker mode after that. Unsurprisingly, it didn't work.

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FINAL THOUGHTS
You don't have to lead common statistical categories like Shots, Time of Possession, Corner Kicks and the like to win. In fact, these types of things can often be more misleading than anything but for this game? 62% possession and 24 shots from KC forcing 5 big saves from Andy Gruenebaum? Very telling for this particular game.

Save for the chaotic first 15 minutes of the 2nd half this game was in KC hands. They were the better team fighting off scrappy poorly organized team.

Looking the updated true table I see the Crew have now slipped to 15th with zero goal difference. Columbus is in a deep hole and need more than just hard work to get out of it. There needs to be a tactical change with this team. This two holding midfielder thing is not working.

A couple bounces didn’t go our way. We fought and battled hard, but we weren’t dangerous enough offensively. Defensively we definitely didn’t do enough. It kind of gets repetitive after awhile." - Andy Gruenebaum

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ME COMPLAINING:
1. Change tactics if runs thru Tyson Wahl.
2. Bernardo is left footed, put him on the left.
3. Danny O'Rourke can handle the CDM spot on his own.
4. Chad Barson should not be an option.
5. Arrieta and Oduro should never be in MF
6. Arrieta and Oduro shouldn't play left MF

ME HELPING:
1. Change tactics.
2. Put in Eric Gehrig over Barson.
3. Replace redundant DM with Speas, Anor, or Finlay.
3a.Will help Federico Higuain
4. Bench Oduro, bring in as sub.
4a.Oduro as leading scorer has you in 15th place.

Here is a lineup suggestion.

This still leaves the team a little weak at left CB and right in the middle but this improves the left and right fullback positions and helps Higuain shake some markers.

I do not dislike Tchani as much as some others might. If you look up and down the roster he is pretty much the one midfielder outside of Anor, Speas and Higuain that gives you any chance going box to box. Sanchez does not, O'Rourke doesn't either.

But this is what I mean by "incomplete team". Where are the midfielders? Why was Viana played in a holding mid spot for so long at the start of the year and not at left back? Why was Arrieta benched when he came back. Why is Oduro playing a midfield roll?

Predictions: Crew (H) v Rapids

Good Morning,

Columbus finishes up a three game home stand tonight by hosting a streaking Colorado Rapids team. Kick off is at 7:30 PM EST and 5:30 PM MDT. Temps will be in the low 60s and there is a chance of rain. Good soccer weather.

NOTES
-Colorado has 3 wins in last 5, draw Houston away two weeks ago
-Crew lost at home last week to NY
-Crew without regulars Danny O'Rourke and Agustin Viana
-Rapids are 1-2-2 Away this year
-Crew only have 1 win in 4 at home in 2013
-When Edson Buddle plays, Rapids have won 3, tied 1
-Crew; 5 pts in last 5, Rapids 10 pts.

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PREDICTIONS

Gonna start off with Drew Epperley over at WV Hooligan this week. He puts it down sharply; "This is a game that the Crew have to win if they want to stay with the big boys." He likes the Crew today by 2:0 result.

The same vibe is coming out of MLSsoccer.com offices. All six of the "Pick 'Em" staffers like the Crew. Matt Doyle is still leading the pack with 46% accuracy (they only call on result, not scores). Jason Saghini, Andrew Wiebe, and Kristel Valencia are tied at bottom with 38% accuracy.

Adam Jardy, on the Crew beat for the Dispatch here in town, feels that "anything less than 3 points will be a disappointment." He also mentions that Crew practices have been intense this week coming off last weeks loss to NY.

Meanwhile, over at newly designed Goal.com nobody seems to interested in an early season CLB COL matchup. My score prediction of 6-7 Colorado stands as 50% of the vote.

Bet365 likes the Crew this week, 10/11 odds to win. 12/5 Draw and 3/1 Colorado Rapids.

Win Draw Win 'your vote' section actually likes Colorado this week. 37% of the vote going their way and another 35% picking a Draw. Surprising stake on a 0:1 Rapids win as well.

Last up is a link to The Burgundy Wave, where writer nickdrfc is thinking positively for his Rapids. Also of note; knows exactly what the Crew are doing.

Over at our own Massive Report, Patrick Guldan thinks the Crew will win 2:1.

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MY THOUGHTS

Colorado has been a little sneaky this year in getting results as not many expect them to make much noise. They are banged up and very young. Columbus, on the other hand, does have some expectation to do well this year but have not and are healthy.

So, we have a classic sports tale of the moderate overachiever taking on a slightly underachiever.

I am not surprised with the Win Draw Win vote prediction leaning Rapids, especially considering that the Crew is probably too heavily favored over at Bet365. I called this a Rapids win last Monday on the Massive Report podcast before the news of Danny O'Rourke being out. I'll stick by that call.

Columbus does have the ability to score goals if things tilt their way (much more so than the Rapids) but I think that they will be able to gum up the works.

We'll see. Going to be at this one, looking forward to it.

Answering Adam Jardy

Way back on March 9th, 2012 the Columbus Dispatch printed a preseason preview for the Columbus Crew, entitled; "The Subtle Approach*" by (newly minted beat writer) Adam Jardy. This piece was the largest on the Crew all year for the paper, encompassing most of the front page of the Sports section, part of C6 and all of page C7. In it Jardy asked 5 questions of the upcoming season that could only be answered after the year was over.

Here are Adam Jardy's preseason questions (more of points, really) with my thoughts below each one (in italics bold).

1. SCORING GOALS
After parting ways with leading scorer Andres Mendoza, the Crew will look elsewhere to replace his 13 goals. Emilio Renteria might end up being the focal point of the offensive attack, but team officials want to see a wide cast of characters finding the back of the net this season. That means Eddie Gaven, Dilly Duka, Milovan Mirosevic and others need to step up and fill Mendoza’s void for the team to have a chance of a deep playoff run.
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On aggregate, Gaven was the only hit here (tied with Jairo Arrieta with most on team, 9). As for scoring by committee? The Crew were tied for 6th in the league with 14 different players seeing the back of the net. 12 teams had at least 13 players score, meaning lots of different scorers isn't an indicator of success. However, having more than THREE players with greater than 5 goals, is (DC, LA, SJ, CHI). More evidence that it's not about having one super star, it takes a village.

One thing I want to note here is that Justin Meram's goal scoring rate (0.38) was slightly higher than Federico Higuain's (0.36). Meram's G+A p90 only behind Higuain and Arrieta.

2. STAYING HEALTHY
Simply put, Renteria needs to avoid the injury bug that has bitten him in previous seasons with the club. The bulky forward is the team’s leading returning scorer, having scored eight goals in 18 games last season, but he will have to improve on that production for the team to have sustained success. If Renteria can play more than 25 games and produce at the same rate he did last season, the Crew will have one of the most-prolific scorers in the league.
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We'll never really know if Renteria could have been that because his attacking partners in Olman Vargas and Aaron Schoenfeld never got going. The Crew did struggle with injury but Tommy Heinemann's became one of the most significant events of the year. Thinking back now, the Crew reaching for Vargas as a better target man than Heinemann really shaped the season. Vargas was a miss... no Heinemann meant rash signing in an inexperienced Schoenfeld to fill the void. What ended up happening is that the Crew completely changed formation and dangled Renteria up top by himself until Arrieta arrived.

3. LEFT BACK
The Crew was caught short-handed when Montreal nabbed Josh Gardner in the expansion draft, leaving the club with no experienced options at the position. Speedy Shaun Francis entered the preseason as the favorite to win the job, but the club made it clear it was looking for more options. Veteran Carlos Mendes probably will start at left back but could be better suited for the center of the defense should Francis develop into a starter.
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The propaganda narrative out of Crew HQ (that everyone latched on to) is that Josh Williams did fine over at LB but is better suited at Center Back. I say that the challenges at LB allowed for the emergence of Williams. It's one of the most significantly positive things to happen to the club in 2012. Williams is a very talented and popular player. Were there not a mess at LB, it may have never happened. I feel that what came out of Crew HQ discounts what Williams did and the impact he made.

4. SELLING TICKETS
The front office has been vocal about its campaign to get to 10,000 season tickets sold, stating that doing so is vital to the future financial viability of the franchise. The club remains a ways off from that target, but as important as meeting it is maintaining it once the team gets there. An attractive style of soccer would surely help, which puts added pressure on Columbus not only to win but also to look good in doing so.
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No official numbers on this but still not at that 10k target. I would estimate the club is still a few thousand away. Attendance overall at Crew Stadium was better but only back to where it was a few years ago.

5. DESIGNATED PURSUIT
Although the Crew brought in Mirosevic and added young talent during the offseason, the front office fell short in its pursuit of a designated player. Management insists the money remains on the table for a possible signing during the summer transfer window, and bringing in a high-profile name or exciting player would give the team and its fans a major boost. Without the caliber of player such a contract typically provides, the Crew finds itself at a competitive disadvantage.
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Lots of rumblings about the Crew looking for a DP during the last offseason so when one was finally signed it wasn't too much of a surprise. While most wish it would have happened before the season, all would probably agree that the one the club signed is a good one. That said, even with the signing of Federico Higuian and Jairo Arrieta halfway through the season the Crew may still find themselves at a 'competitive disadvantage'. Before their addition the Crew were 10th in the league... after they came on? Lots of fireworks - but still finished 10th in the league.

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*Really good work by Adam Jardy this past year. Interesting that I can't find a link to the cover page story "A Subtle Approach" online. People should subscribe the the paper though, anyhow. Maybe they'll be able to send Jardy to more away games. It's only around 15 bones a month. Support newspapers. Otherwise, without power in the press, get use to them kneeling down to local sports teams and becoming an extended PR arm.

One quote from the missing article that I like, comes from GM McCullers; "I'm not scared to remind our technical and competition staff that at the end of the day, we do have to sell tickets."

2013 Crew: Doomed to be Average

Ain't no man can avoid being born average, but there ain't no man got to be common. - Satchel Paige

Looking at the past two years there is clear evidence to support exhausting all resources to keep as many players together as possible. This is of course challenging as Major League Soccer salary cap restrictions work against consistency.

Back in October I took a look at roster turnover on each club. What I found was that successful teams in 2012 retained players from their 2011 roster. It's not just a case of good teams keeping good players, either. San Jose topped the league this year after being a bottom feeder in 2011. You would've thought that they flipped their roster to improve this year, instead it's just the opposite. They had the 3rd highest player retention rate in the league. 60% of the Earthquake players that saw minutes in 2012 also saw time in 2011.

The team retaining the most talent from 2011 to 2012? MLS Cup co-participant, Houston Dynamo (67%).

What I've found is that retaining and playing >54% of the same players year over year greatly increases success in the league.

MEDIAN YOY PLAYER RETENTION
54% : Top Half of Table (53% AVG)
45% : Bottom Half of Table (43% AVG)

• Only three teams in the top nine were under 50% retention (NY, CHI, SEA).

• Only ONE team in the bottom half was above 50% (FCD)

The dust hasn't settled on the Crew offseason yet but right now, at best, the Crew have retained 15 players for the 2013 season that were on the team at the start of 2012. 50% puts them right in the middle of the table. If I subtract Aaron Horton due to him not seeing a minute of MLS time (in keeping with October post) the Crew drop to 47% retention. Removing Ben Speas' appearance in the last game takes the club down to 43%.

Unless you have one of the best players in a generation on your team you will likely be out of the playoff with a 43% retention rate of players seeing time in both last year and this year.

Has the Crew already relegated themselves to the middle of the 2013 table? My honest answer to that is "yes". Of course there is still a lot of time between now and the end of next year and there could possibly be re-signings (recommended).

CAVEAT: If I've learned anything in this league it's that MLS likes to tinker and that opens the door for crazy. That said; No expansion team this year should allow teams to keep more players together thus (fingers crossed) improve the overall quality of play in the league.

MLS RULES

MLS changes and modifies rules constantly. There seems to be a strong movement to build "Homegrown Talent" with some of the clubs right now. Brian Bliss and company have really grabbed hold of this trend (see more at Top Drawer Soccer) and this year seems to be shaping up as the YEAR OF THE HOMEGROWN (Trapp, Weit and Barson for the Crew). Some of the cuts this year might be in anticipation of a trio of local players joining the club.

Anyhow.
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Here is the list of % players retained by club and listed by rank (descending 1-19) on the final 2012 MLS table.

60% : San Jose
60% : Sporting KC
54% : D.C.
30% : New York
61% : Real Salt Lake
44% : Chicago
48% : Seattle
50% : Los Angeles
67% : Houston
46% : Columbus
45% : Vancouver
- : Montreal
59% : FC Dallas
45% : Colorado
38% : Philadelphia
39% : New England
45% : Portland
28% : Chivas USA
48% : Toronto FC

One of the first things I'll be doing when predicting table in February is comparing rosters year over year.

Some good reading out there for those looking to make sense of offseason club moves.

1. Salary Cap Realities Harsh For Seattle Sounders, David Clark.

2. Real Salt Lake see more players victimized by MLS salary cap and roster policies, "denz"

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The wise are instructed by reason, average minds by experience, the stupid by necessity and the brute by instinct. - Cicero
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One cannot develop taste from what is of average quality but only from the very best. - Goethe
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7 Options Declined

The Columbus Crew today announced they will be declining options on the following players contracts: William Hesmer, Rich Balchan, Julius James, Sebastian Miranda, Chris Birchall, Tony Tchani; and forward Tommy Heinemann.

Columbus is free to negotiate new contracts with these players but it is not likely that the club will pick any back up. Roster bullet points:

• All totaled the Crew dropped $ 854,825 in Guaranteed Salary ($ 710,950 Base) today.

• $ 1,899,900 worth of contracts remain on the 2013 payroll, $ 1,554,200 (Base Salary) left on the roster, according to MLS Salary Cap rules

• Only 9 players left from just 2 years ago. Of them, 2 were regular starters. Columbus very much in rebuilding mode despite reports out of team HQ stating otherwise.

Here is a list of 17 players that will be returning in 2013: Andy Gruenebaum, Matt Lampson, Eric Gehrig, Chad Marshall, Josh Williams, Bernardo Anor, Dilly Duka, Ethan Finlay, Eddie Gaven, Kevan George, Milovan Mirosevic, Jairo Arrieta, Federico Higuaín, Aaron Horton, Justin Meram, Aaron Schoenfeld, and Ben Speas.

According to reports, the Crew will be offering new contracts to Carlos Mendes, Emilio Renteria and Danny O'Rourke.

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SOME THOUGHTS

Sadly, a lot of what was cut strikes me as simply cutting injured players. I do not believe the Columbus Crew have the resources to care and feed players with injury (of any kind). Hesmer, Balchan, and Heinemann all had season injuries early on. James suffered a collapsed lung that sidelined him most of the year then battled a reoccurring shoulder injury. All were cut and all are probably casualty of a poorly financed and run fitness and training staff.

Sebastian Miranda and Chris Birchall are pure examples of unnecessary cuts in my book. They have MLS experience and earn a modest starting salary. Replacements will likely be, at best, similar quality. It's 'change for change sake' at it's best.

Tony Tchani seemed to come on a bit this year but ultimately it's probably his Generation Adidas contract that did him in.

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I WILL MISS TOMMY HEINEMANN

Having only been a casual fan over the years, Tommy probably responsible for me getting hooked on following the Crew as closely as I have since late 2010. I'm not even going to pretend to use data to justify keeping him (even though his win % as a starter remains one of the best in last 2 years). I favor him too much. He's a good dude and I wish him the best where ever he goes.

Tommy's time with the Crew inspired enough in me to make a couple videos... 1st is a video during a long road trip out west back in 2011.



Another was in defeat... but myths, legends and heroes are made in such times:



And here's a 3rd one I did.

The Crew Forward Market

Now that I've looked at Crew Defenders and Midfielders, it's time to take a look at the Crew's attacking group. Just as in the last post I'm going to touch on which players are a hit and which are a miss in regards to contract.

You'd figure that writing about the Forward position might be the most exciting, but it really isn't. Why this is probably has a lot to do with the Columbus Crew switching to a single forward attack over the two that they preferred all of last year and at the start of this year.

The rise of the 4-2-3-1 as Robert Warzycha's primary formation comes from the lack of any target man. The injury to Tommy Heinemann, impatience with Olman Vargas and generally 'rookie-ness' of Aaron Schoenfeld almost forced the oh so mighty hand of Warzycha to go with what was his secondary formation (the: 4-2-3-1) last year.

Since that formation change - the club rode the Jairo Arrieta train from summer on. What that means is that there isn't a whole lot to hang our hats on here at the "forward" position. All is not lost though. How about we look at it from a "attacking" position perspective.

CONTRACT HITS BASED ON VALUE

Federico Higuain
Value: $195k, Contract: $162k
Notes: Contract was cut in half to adjust for MLS rules regarding players starting half way through the season.

Emilio Renteria
Value: $163k, Contract: $134k
Notes: Renteria's Goal p90 rate tanked this year but most of that was due to the change in his role. Renteria took his positional change really well and actually earned three assists.

Jairo Arrieta
Value: $134k, Contract: $113k
Notes: Arrieta is another contract I cut in half due to MLS rules on players coming in halfway through the season.

CONTRACT MISS BASED ON VALUE

Olman Vargas (released)
Value: $79k, Contract: $175k
Notes: Olman contract option was not picked up by the Crew.

...AND ON VARGAS

Turns out that even my modest predictions for him back in February were too lofty. I predicted 3-5 goals, no assists and 1200 minutes of playing time with a scoring rate of 0.12. Turns out I was dead on the scoring rate. In MLS he got 0.13 but only half the 1200 minutes I foresaw. Also, he registered 0 (nowt) assists, just as I thought (mu-hahaha).

On other thing I tried to predict was his salary. I called it at $140k. Turns out it was slightly higher; $175k. What's frustrating to me is that armed with only public information I was able to predict what this player would do and the salary he would make.

Vargas was the only real loss the Crew took at the forward position. In fact, the forward position was the only group that was in the black.

It's surprising to me is that for all the fan discontent with the Crew attacking capabilities the players classified by Stats, Inc as Forwards actually did very well (in terms of value). Much better, in fact, then both Defenders and Midfielders.

-$196k: DEFENDERS
-$186k: MIDFIELD
+$127k: FORWARDS

THE UNDERPAID FORWARDS

Justin Meram and Aaron Schoenfeld are underpaid when comparing what they did to the rest of Major League Soccer. I value Meram at $169k and Schoenfeld at $80k. Both are clear values based on 2012 production. The earned well above their current salaries.

2013 SNEAK PEEK

Robert Warzycha will ride Higuain and Arrieta till the wheels come off. Problem will be - the wheels will inevitably come off. You can't win in this league with just one playmaker and one opportunistic forward. Banking an entire season on that combo is league table suicide. Aaron Schoenfeld and Tommy Heinemann will have to play a role in order for this team to make some noise in 2013. Look at the best teams in this league. Hell. Any league.

Simply put: You cannot survive on a poacher (Arrieta) and an advanced playmaking forward (Higuain) to create all your goals over a 34+ match season.

THE LAST TWO

Of the players that saw time, Ethan Finlay and Ben Speas are the only other players I haven't talked about. I like both of them. It appears that they will be spending time in unnatural spots. Speas seems to be destine for the Left Mid spot and Finlay? Anywhere else under King Warzycha. I like him anywhere that allows him to run.

Crew Defense, Market Value (Salary)

Off and on over the past couple years I've been trying to come up with a meaningful way to measure MLS Player Value. I mentioned it in my last post, calling it HB Market Value. What I did with that was pull the median from the 10 salaries above and below an individual performer based on my own player rating model.

I thought the results were interesting and somewhat useful but there were too many strange outcomes. After some digging I found that it was because the difference in what a Forward makes in relationship to what a Defender or Mid-fielder or what-have-you. So, I've taken one small extra step and pulled out the players by position and re-run the 10 above / 10 below median salary.

I'm satisfied with what I've got right now. Here is what happened with Crew Defenders. It is sorted by % Above or Below 2012 Salary:

1. JOSH WILLIAMS
HB Market Value : $112,500
2012 Salary : $44,100
Difference : +$68,400

2. ERIC GEHRIG
HB Market Value : $71,466
2012 Salary : $44,000
Difference : +$27,466

3. SEBASTIAN MIRANDA
HB Market Value : $160,500
2012 Salary : $140,000
Difference : +$20,500

4. CARLOS MENDES
HB Market Value : $96,250
2012 Salary : $106,209
Difference : -$(9,959)

5. JULIUS JAMES
HB Market Value : $69,313
2012 Salary : $100,000
Difference : -$(30,687)

6. NEMANJA VUKOVIC*
HB Market Value : $84,571
2012 Salary : $125,500
Difference : -$(40,929)

7. DANNY O'ROURKE
HB Market Value : $89,303
2012 Salary : $145,600
Difference : -$(56,297)

8. CHAD MARSHALL
HB Market Value : $161,000
2012 Salary : $341,250
Difference : -($(174,000)

* Vukovic has was let go earlier this week.

If you add these 8 salaries up and subtract my "HB Market Value" you end up with a overall loss on these players.

$1,040,409 : Total Salaries
$844,903 : HB Market Value
-$(195,506.00) : Difference

I can see why the Crew eliminated Vukovic but removing him doesn't take their backline into overall profitability. Oft injured Marshall, James and O'Rourke are concrete boots to this position. All are excellent players (Danny's work roaming the mid-field is master-class, when he's out there. Thus illo above. I'll include him in my Mid-Field market eval) but (right now) their contracts far outweigh contribution.

The only way to take the Crew backline back into profitability would be to drop Marshall and one of the following; James, Vukovic, or O'Rourke.

Marshall was just resigned a long deal and O'Rourke seems to be staying. With Vukovic gone, this leaves Julius James as the odd man out.

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THE LEAGUE PICTURE

153 different players saw time (according to STATS,INC) as a Defender during the 2012 MLS season. The Median salary for this group was $99,000.

Here are the Players who most outperformed their 2012 MLS contract. On the left is % value above salary.



383% : Connor Lade : (NY)
270% : Chris Korb : (DC)
168% : Jeb Brovsky : (MON)
167% : Tyler Ruthven : (NY)
155% : Josh Williams : (CREW)
155% : Bryan Gaul : (LA)
153% : Steven Beitashour : (SJ)
151% : Raymon Gaddis : (PHI)
150% : Jermaine Taylor : (HOU)
146% : Austin Berry : (CHI)

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When I talk "Market Value" I'm talking within Major League Soccer universe only. More specifically the 2012 MLS universe. Trying to determine a player's value to foreign leagues is a completely different species. It's something I would love to take on at some point, but this... that is not.

Crew Drop Three, Grossman to RSL

Olman Vargas, Nemanja Vukovic and Cole Grossman have been dropped.

From TheCrew.com: "All three players are not eligible for the MLS Re-entry Process and will be placed on the MLS Waiver wire, with the MLS Waiver Draft taking place at 3:30 p.m. ET this afternoon."

A COUPLE THINGS on that STATEMENT

1. Grossman was the only player picked from the 43 dropped for today's "Waiver Draft". Real Salt Lake nabbed him, wisely.

2. The Re-entry Process" is a tricky animal as MLS over-engineers player draft rules everything. My understanding is that Vargas and Vukovic are dangling out there once their 2012 contract officially ends at the end of the calendar year. Both are quality players

NICHOLAS HOLLAND "Cole" GROSSMAN

I've written a lot about Cole here at Helltown over the course of the 2012 season, with emphasis since the end of the Crew season when doing player evaluations. The reason for this is because his metrics were notably good in the short time he played.

Real Salt Lake was smart to pick him up.

For me? He's a $44k a year player who was put into impossible positions when called upon this year. He started against Seattle, DC United, Sporting KC, LA, and Houston and never lost a match with 8 goals for and only 4 against. If you didn't notice; Those are the best teams in the league.

His counterpart, Milovan Mirosevic? He didn't win a single game against a team ranked 1-9 on the table when starting. NOT A SINGLE ONE. 0 Wins, 4 Draws, 5 Losses. 10 Goals For, 16 Against. A main contributer to the club missing the 2012 playoffs was Mirosevic's presence on the pitch when playing better competition.

Let's take a second to break down some of the incompetence that Grossman mentions in his Facebook post today.

Below is a record of the Crew's results when Mirosevic was a starter against better competition:

Round 4: NY. LOSS
Round 6: HOU. DRAW
Round 10: SJ DRAW
Round 20: DC. LOSS
Round 21: LA. DRAW

You would think that during this part of the season the club would have noticed a trend. Why? Because by week 22 Grossman had 3 wins in 5 starts vs top teams to Mirosevics 0 in 5.

The team didn't take notice and started Mirosevic in critical late year matches. He ended up starting in 4, losing 3.

Round 28: NY. LOSS
Round 30: CHI. LOSS
Round 32: SKC. DRAW
Round 33: DC. LOSS

At one of the most important positions on a Robert Warzycha coached team (Defensive Mid-Fielder)... Why would Mirosevic, a player who clearly struggled against better players early on, get time late in the year against quality clubs?

I'm sorry, but it doesn't take a Duke University graduate to figure this one out. A trend is a trend. It should have been sorted. The Crew reacted quickly with Olman Vargas by pulling him early in the season (didn't start after week 10, no wins against top half talent), why not Mirosevic?

GROSSMAN IN A BETTER SITUATION

RSL is ranked 3rd in over all record over the last 4 years. While it's true that Columbus is 4th in that time, RSL still clocks in at 4th over the last two years. Columbus has tumbled to 9th.

Grossman is going to a better run MLS franchise. The fact that they picked a player like him is a testament to how they measure performance and why they are consistently better than Columbus and the other 15 clubs in the league below them.

AFFINITY DIAGRAM TIME

I ventured in to the ever increasing dark forest that is Facebook and found that common fans are upset about Vukovic getting dropped. Longer written posts reason out in favor of keeping Cole and there is general indifference to Vargas.

PLAYER VALUE

I rate every player. I also keep track of every player's salary. If I take the 10 players above and below an individual on my rating scale I can summize general value (or "HB Market Value" if I may. If you will).

Nemanja Vukovic: $125,500
HB Market Value: $75,000
Difference: -($50,500)

Olman Vargas: $175,000
HB Market Value: $93,300
Difference: -($81,700)

Cole Grossman: $44,100
HB Market Value: $65,000
Difference: +$20,9000

Both Vukovic and Vargas are overpaid. Cole is underpaid by a significant percentage. By picking him up in the MLS Waiver Draft RSL is getting a value.

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The Columbus Crew let go of $344,600 today.

The total HB Market Value of these players: $233,300.

Aggregate salary dropped today, by club.

$756,255 : NYR : 9
$463,790 : PHI : 3
$413,256 : SKC : 4

$344,600 : CREW : 3

$292,514 : FCD : 5
$208,502 : COL : 2
$185,600 : TFC : 4
$155,000 : VAN : 3
$149,372 : NER : 4
$111,500 : POR : 3
$103,333 : SJE : 1
$35,750 : RSL : 1
$33,750 : MON : 1

RSL picked up Cole's $44,100 salary, so call it even for them.

Of the 43 dropped today I recommend the following players (other than Cole):

B. Brettschneider: $33,756
HB Market Value: 105,950
Difference: +$72,194

C. Rodriguez: $64,383
HB Market Value: $90,750
Difference: +$26,367

Crew Final Player Rating

Below will be how I see things regarding final Crew player Ratings on the 2012 Season. If you look on the right of this blog you will see that I've spent some time with different player rating systems and their take on this past year's Crew team.

You'll notice the headers. "HBR" is my player rating. "Castrol" is the Castrol Index that MLS employs. "Guldan" is the rating SB Nation's Crew blog gave. "HBS Top H" is a score I track. It's a players Points Earned Per Game + Goal Difference. "Diff" is the difficulty of opponents each player faced when on the field.

First up will be the players finishing outside the top 18 in average rating.

Players "19-30" on any Major League Soccer team can be both the most important - and the most meaningless. Over the past few years the Columbus Crew have done a fairly good job in populating the senior team roster with good talent. You'll notice that this list includes young and/or injured players. Big call out: Julius James shouldn't be here and Francis is gone already.

I like the rest on this list. I think Schoenfeld and Heinemann are healthy target players to have in MLS. Arrieta came on strong, but players like him get eaten up by the physical nature of this league. Crew need goals from big men in the box. Gehrig, Anor, Finlay, and Speas are the kind of players you want working to get in the top 18.

Next up is the middle group.

This is the most critical group and here is where you'll probably see the most change. These guys saw significant minutes but received mixed reviews. Call Outs: Mirosevic was picked to be an important leader of the club and for the most part he was. Problem might be that (and this includes my own system) he showed better due to level of competition. He somehow managed to participate in a nearly full season yet rank towards the bottom in playing against top clubs.

Another call out is Olman Vargas. He played against quality competition but struggled. Same with Federico Higuain, in a way. Higuain really benefited from being in the right place at the right time this year but he did outstandingly during his short time. Next year should be interesting.

The polar opposite of Mirosevic is Cole Grossman. He received tepid reviews from me, Castrol and Guldan but over-performed against good competition when evaluating actual results. The reason I include performance against teams in the Top Half is because of Cole (being honest, but you can't ignore the results).

Of this list of players I think Nemanja Vukovic, Emilio Renteria and Tony Tchani are in danger of moving on. Renteria is worth hanging on to, but we'll see.

THE TOP 2012 PLAYERS

Up to the final list now, the top guys. One of the things I looked for in regards to player rating over different systems and metrics was variance. I liked low numbers and little difference between them. I saw that with Josh Williams and Chris Birchall. Andy Gruenebaum and Sebastian Miranda also fall in there.

Unfortunately, I think Dilly Duka is on the 'fringe' along with Carlos Mendes. Both these guys probably out performed what most of us saw but circumstance might bite them in the end. For the record, I think both Dilly Duka and Carlos Mendes are players I think the Crew should work to retain. At the very least, both are MLS ready and had great metrics. That alone should keep them on the Crew's list of 2013 roster players.

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There is a melancholic feeling to this post for me now that I'm done reviewing the Crew players. It by no means covers everything or every feeling I have about each player. November is generally a big month of change for a lot of Crew players. My thoughts and prayers are with those most affected by the changes.

Opponent Difficulty, Crew Players

Ever wonder if certain players get the short end of the stick and tossed out against better teams? Me too.

Major League Soccer implemented an unbalanced schedule this year so it's imperative to take into consideration each Crew player's opponent when rating players.

% Appearances v. Top Half of Table : Total Apps

70% : Cole Grossman : 10
67% : Carlos Mendes : 12
65% : Dilly Duka : 20
64% : Justin Meram : 22
61% : Chris Birchall : 18
58% : Julius James : 12
57% : Kevan George : 7
56% : Jairo Arrieta : 18
55% : Olman Vargas : 11
54% : Tony Tchani : 22
53% : Josh Williams : 30

51% : Andy Gruenebaum : 33
50% : Eddie Gaven : 34
48% : Sebastian Miranda : 33

47% : Nemanja Vukovic : 15
46% : Chad Marshall : 24
44% : Emilio Rentería : 27
44% : Aaron Schoenfeld : 9
43% : Danny O'Rourke : 21
41% : Eric Gehrig : 12
40% : Ethan Finlay : 15
40% : Shaun Francis : 10
39% : Federico Higuain : 13
38% : Milovan Mirosevic : 26
36% : Bernardo Anor : 11
33% : Matt Lampson : 3
0% : Tom Heinemann : 1


If you are an avid fan of the Crew this list might surprise you. There are a number of very important callouts.

1. Meram and Duka were literally thrown to wolves. Large, angry wolves. 22 and 20 total appearances - 2/3rds against the top half.

2. Josh Williams (30 apps) didn't get the memo about apps against cupcakes. Look at the difference between him and Milovan Mirosevic (26 apps).

3. Mirosevic. Hard to argue with this. He missed key games against really good teams. Hard to figure his season. All indications from my perspective point towards good dude but that might hide a few nagging game day flaws.

4. No question Higuain came out of the gates in a great way, but very important to consider the opposition. Also consider the fact that opponents were halfway through a long season and he was just starting his.

5. Grossman. Considering how he was used, this season could have ended his career. Instead he finished with excellent metrics against excellent teams. It's not chance. Trust the numbers people. Close your eyes and trust the numbers.

6. Birchall, Tchani, Arrieta; Notable. Good.

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[EDITED ON FRIDAY NOV. 9TH, 11:00 AM. Originally Missed: final regular season game for players that participated in it. Last match was against a team in the bottom half. Both % vs. Top Half and Apps have been adjusted and updated]

Helltown Beer Crew Player Ratings

Over the past few weeks I've covered a number of different Crew (and league) player ratings from the 2012 season. For this post I will list out my own ratings. They will be posted on the right with the rest to compare.

QUICK NOTES ON MY RATING MODEL

Throughout the year I rate every player in Major League Soccer. My model is based on something I came up with early last year and it has served me well since. I like doing it and is becoming more reliable for me. However, sometime last summer it became fully self aware, took over my computer and now even controls how I think and even feel. I'm surprised it has even allowed me to write this much.

HELLTOWN BEER RATING : NAME : LEAGUE RANK

78 : Eddie Gaven : 9
69 : Andy Gruenebaum : 43
68 : Sebastian Miranda : 44
60 : Josh Williams : 74
56 : Milovan Mirosevic : 92
53 : Chad Marshall : 109
48 : Jairo Arrieta : 139
43 : Emilio Rentería : 168
40 : Chris Birchall : 188
40 : Danny O'Rourke : 191
37 : Tony Tchani : 208
35 : Federico Higuain : 226
32 : Nemanja Vukovic : 241
31 : Justin Meram : 251
30 : Dilly Duka : 257

28 : LEAGUE MEDIAN

27 : Carlos Mendes : 281
24 : Eric Gehrig : 297
22 : Julius James : 314
22 : Olman Vargas : 316
19 : Shaun Francis : 336
18 : Cole Grossman : 344
18 : Bernardo Anor : 346
16 : Ethan Finlay : 368
16 : Kevan George : 370
14 : Aaron Schoenfeld : 398
10 : Matt Lampson : 449
8 : Ben Speas : 474
7 : Tommy Heinemann : 495

If it looks funny that a 28 is league median, it's because 236 of the 532 players that saw minutes played less than 900. Bad MLS teams love to toss players out on the pitch instead of doing the homework beforehand. Half the league was bad this year. Thus, lots of players.

164 players didn't make it to 450 minutes.

My model takes 16 league stats (that I prefer) - applies value through efficiencies, adds a dash of weight, glances at the league table and conjures up a point total.

I don't take into account things like potential, or perceived talent. It also ignores fan favorites and the dreams of the hopeful - yet, lost.

What is does is tell me who is doing well in MLS and contributing to the team in relationship to the rest of the league, based on actual results. I like actual results, as should you.

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I'm building up to a big fat final player grade based on Crew player rating from across the internets.

"The Castrol Index" Columbus Crew

The "Castrol Index" is another Major League Soccer player measurement system. Of the two previous I've mentioned so far it is of the more complex variety. Here is how the creators of the system sum it up:

The Castrol Index tracks every move on the field and assesses whether it has a positive or negative impact on a team’s ability to score or concede a goal.

Seems simple enough, but it is not. Read more about it HERE.

Below is how Castrol ranks the Crew players that saw time this year. On the Left is where the player ranked in the league. On the Right is the Castrol "score".

LEAGUE RANK : CASTROL SCORE (PTS)
28 : Andy Gruenebaum : 636
32 : Jairo Arrieta : 607
39 : Chad Marshall : 584
75 : Eddie Gaven : 525
121 : Milovan Mirosevic : 483
135 : Josh Williams : 471
177 : Chris Birchall : 434
194 : Danny O'Rourke : 414
204 : Emilio Rentería : 406
210 : Federico Higuain : 396
213 : Sebastian Miranda : 392

235 : LEAGUE MEDIAN RANK

238 : Tony Tchani : 349
255 : Justin Meram : 310
261 : Nemanja Vukovic : 302
273 : Olman Vargas : 271
275 : Dilly Duka : 269
303 : Eric Gehrig : 211
306 : Carlos Mendes : 205
320 : Julius James : 179
331 : Bernardo Anor : 142
341 : Cole Grossman : 126
343 : Kevan George : 121
361 : Ethan Finlay : 85
392 : Aaron Schoenfeld : 53
416 : Matt Lampson : 29
424 : Ben Speas : 20
458 : Tommy Heinemann : 0

I spent some time with this rating model last year and determined it to be not sustainable but at the same time something worth while to pay attention to.

Going back through my notes I also notice that they have changed they way they score. It use to be a "7.65" type score, which I assumed was on a 10 pt scale. Now it is a whole number.

For the purposes of this blog I am going to turn the "league rank" on the left of the players name into a percentage.

EXAMPLE, ANDY GRUENEBAUM
Andy finished ranked 28th in the league. 470 total players were tracked. That puts Andy in the top 10%. Or, better than 94% of the league (players ranked 29-470).

I'm going to use the 94% for consistency on this blog - I like my player scores on a 100 pt scale if the entire league is involved.

94% : Andy Gruenebaum
93% : Jairo Arrieta
92% : Chad Marshall
84% : Eddie Gaven
74% : Milovan Mirosevic
71% : Josh Williams
62% : Chris Birchall
59% : Danny O'Rourke
57% : Emilio Rentería
55% : Federico Higuain
55% : Sebastian Miranda

49% : Tony Tchani
46% : Justin Meram
44% : Nemanja Vukovic
42% : Olman Vargas
41% : Dilly Duka
36% : Eric Gehrig
35% : Carlos Mendes
32% : Julius James
30% : Bernardo Anor
27% : Cole Grossman
27% : Kevan George
23% : Ethan Finlay
17% : Aaron Schoenfeld
11% : Matt Lampson
10% : Ben Speas
3% : Tommy Heinemann

Not any different order than the first list at the top of this blog, just a more usable number than... whatever that number is that Castrol uses. This number makes more sense to me. Greater than 50%? in the top half. Less than 33%? Bottom third.

Looking up and down the list, I think it works. I know that they (Castrol Index people) are still trying to come to terms with how much total player minutes steers the player score.

Of note above; Sebastian Miranda, who tallied loads of minutes, down the list. O'Rourke didn't play in over half the games but finish close to the top third of the league.

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If it looks like I'm building a model to ultimately give out one gigantic player grade, it's because I am. Right before your eyes! Watch! As I unlink these rings! Still a few more player ratings to post up yet (including my own). To the right of this blog will be all the ratings so you too can be informed about things. Especially going into the "exit interview" part of the MLS season.

The Guldan Rating, SB Nation

Patrick Guldan is the Managing Editor of SB Nation's "Columbus Crew community". After most Crew matches he posts a Notes and Grades summary of the previous game. In it he rates the Crew side of the match using the following system (in Mr. Guldan's words):

"Note on Grades: I have set 5 as an average performance. The player had both good and bad events on the field. Under 5 is a disappointing performance. Above 5 is a notable performance."

I've come to enjoy this feature over the past couple seasons as I like that he grounds player performance on average and works off that. A lot of player ratings out there (I see them most often with USMNT) use a 1-10 scale with no indication of average performance.

**I'm going to cut to the chase than explain lower down the post.**

What I did was take the number of times a player rated a 7 and above and divided that by total number of times rated.

RATING : NAME : TIMES RATED

55.6% : Federico Higuain : 9
46.2% : Jairo Arrieta : 13
35.3% : Danny O'Rourke : 17
33.3% : Andy Gruenebaum : 27
33.3% : Matt Lampson : 3
32.1% : Eddie Gaven : 28
30.0% : Milovan Mirosevic : 20
21.7% : Josh Williams : 23
21.4% : Dilly Duka : 14
20.0% : Kevan George : 5

17.9% : TEAM

16.7% : Chad Marshall : 18
16.7% : Chris Birchall : 12
15.4% : Sebastian Miranda : 26
12.5% : Cole Grossman : 8
11.1% : Justin Meram : 18
10.0% : Olman Vargas : 10
10.0% : Carlos Mendes : 10
9.1% : Emilio Rentería : 22
9.1% : Eric Gehrig : 11
9.1% : Nemanja Vukovic : 11
7.1% : Coaching : 28
5.6% : Tony Tchani : 18

0.0% : Bernardo Anor : 10
0.0% : Shaun Francis : 7
0.0% : Ethan Finlay : 11
0.0% : Kirk Urso : 5
0.0% : Aaron Schoenfeld : 8
0.0% : Julius James : 9
0.0% : Ben Speas : 1

WHY DID I DO IT THIS WAY

Another thing I like about Guldan's system is that in the description it doesn't indicate if "10" is even the highest number or even if 1 is the lowest. Up until recently I'd never seen even an "8" given out by Guldan (I talked about that earlier this year).

29 total Crew players were rated 402 times (on average, about 14x a player). Plenty of times to draw valuable information out. Here's how the score distribution looked. On the left is his rating (LOW is bad, like - a 2; High is good, 9): On the right is the number of times that Score was handed out.

2 : 2
3 : 18
4 : 50
5 : 99
6 : 161
7 : 64
8 : 5
9 : 3

No "1" or "10" this year. Again, Guldan's system pivots off a 5 as average rating. What this reminds me of is a Net Promoter Score (NPS). It's a system that simply asks the question "Would you recommend this product to a friend". In the Net Promoter system average scores are thrown out. Which is exactly what I did. The reason being is to eliminate the 'passive' ratings. In the retail / maufacturing world 'passive' customers can be seen as the enemy. Why? I doesn't give you any actionable items. Without actionable tasks you waste a lot of time on nada.

If you have a customer nailing your ass to the wall... you want to focus on that. NOT the folks in the middle, NPS treats that as noise. Same goes for the higher ratings. Growing your company, you want to figure out what works. NPS can be valuable in this way.

What I did to derive a usable number from Guldan's rating system is take the total number of times a player scores a 7 and above and divide that by the total number of times the player was rated. I feel that shows best what Patrick Guldan views as quality.

EXAMPLE: DILLY DUKA
Duka was rated a total of 14 times by Patrick Guldan. He (Duka) got rated 4 twice, a 5 four times, a 6 five times and a 7 three times. It looks like this:

GULDAN SCORE : # OF TIMES RATED
4 : 2
5 : 4
6 : 5
7 : 3

Dilly didn't recieve any ratings others than those above. What I'm going to do is throw out the anything below 7... take the 3x at a "7" and divide it by total number of times rated, 14.

3 / 14 = 21.4% : Duka

Taking out the "detractors" pulls my number away from true NPS. I did this, in part, because Guldan's rating isn't on a 1-10 scale. Also, NPS has many critics, including me.

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Taking the "average" rating of players leaves almost all at around 5 or 6. Removing the middle ground gives me more to go off of. Had a brief Twitter conversation with the great Steve Sirk (@stevesirk) about how the Crew players with the most time naturally find the middle of the road (Team averages). A NPS type score is a simple way of discounting average and bringing important items into focus.

Of course Guldan's rating system isn't the only thing to go off of, nor is only using "NPS" if you are a retail company. Guldan's ratings are an "outsider but almost insider" type rating that should only be taken as such. Meaning, he has contact with team officials and players but isn't part of the payroll. There are hints of favoritism here and there but generally his scores are honest. I'll post this on the right side blog though so you, dear informed reader, can make your own conclusions about things.

If you want to mess with Patrick Guldan's player ratings you can find them HERE. Mr. Guldan didn't rate every week (that I could find) but I pulled as much as there was available on his SB Nation Crew blog. Statistically; it's enough to evaluate how he views the performance of the players this year.

I'm posting it as part of my ongoing evaluation of Crew players.

I appreciate Patrick Guldan's player ratings and look forward to them again next year.

2012 "Team of the Week" MLS Soccer

Throughout the the year I kept tabs on Major League Soccer's "Team of the Week" (TotW) feature on their website MLSsoccer.com. How it works is that their staff selects a team of 11 players each week that they feel played the best over the previous week. On top of those eleven, they also pick another 20 (or so) players and place them under the "Honorable Mention (HM)" category.

It's not perfect. MLS generally uses this feature to generate social interest and do little beyond listing out the players with a short blurb. No historical reference or player tracking. Once it's posted, it's posted and they move on.

Regardless. It can be a valuable feature. All totalled - about 10% of all players week to week get mentioned in the MLS TotW / HM feature.

There were 182 different players and coaches to make the site's TotW out of a possible 348 open starting XI slots + one coach (should have been 408 but MLS got weird with this feature between weeks 13 and 15). There were another 130 players that made the Honorable Mention category.

I tracked: 312 different players and coaches, 929 mentions.

Here are the players with over 9 mentions (TotW + HM = Mentions).

MENTIONS: NAME : (TotW only)

14 : Robbie Keane (4)
12 : Chris Wondolowski (8)
12 : Fredy Montero (3)
11 : Landon Donovan(5)
10 : Chris Pontius (5)
10 : Brad Davis (5)
9 : Marvin Chávez (5)
9 : Dan Kennedy (3)
9 : Andy Gruenebaum (3)

I don't think it's out of bounds to think that Total Mentions, as a subjective list like Team of the Week, can be used general barometer of quality. It passes the smell test as a measurement of quality. More value can be found in that it will also tell you who the league favors (bigger names get more attention). Smaller market teams might get overlooked in these lists but with a league of only 19 teams there you can only hide for so long.

The only player to separate themselves from the rest of the pack as far as TotW mentions was Chris Wondolowski with 8. Five players made the team 5 times (in the list above + Lee Nguyen).

Here is how it looks with the Crew ganked out. On the left are the number of times a player was mentioned. On the (right) is TotW mentions only.

9 : Andy Gruenebaum (3)
7 : Eddie Gaven (3)
7 : Jairo Arrieta (2)
5 : Chad Marshall (1)
5 : Josh Williams
4 : Federico Higuaín (3)
4 : Justin Meram
3 : Emilio Rentería (1)

2 : MLS LEAGUE MEDIAN

2 : Robert Warzycha*
2 : Shaun Francis
2 : Tony Tchani
1 : Aaron Schoenfeld
1 : Chris Birchall
1 : Danny O'Rourke
1 : Dilly Duka
1 : Milovan Mirosevic
1 : Sebastian Miranda

* One coach picked per week. More on that later on.

Here is number of TotW (best XI only) by club.

MENTIONS : TEAM

35 : San Jose Earthquakes*
25 : Real Salt Lake*
23 : Chicago Fire*
23 : Seattle Sounders*
22 : D.C. United*
22 : LA Galaxy*
20 : New York Red Bulls
19 : FC Dallas
18 : Houston Dynamo*
18 : New England Revolution
17 : Philadelphia Union
17 : Sporting Kansas City*
16 : Montreal Impact
15 : Columbus Crew
14 : Portland Timbers
13 : Vancouver Whitecaps*
12 : Colorado Rapids
10 : Chivas USA
9 : Toronto FC

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Alright. A few metrics here be.
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How many minutes it takes to get a MLS "mention" (includes TotW and HM). On the right I put total mentions again.

MINS PLAYED PER MENTION : NAME : MENTIONS

219 : Jairo Arrieta 7
240 : Justin Meram 4
251 : Federico Higuaín 4
254 : Shaun Francis 2
298 : Aaron Schoenfeld 1
324 : Andy Gruenebaum 9
427 : Eddie Gaven 7
429 : Chad Marshall 5
486 : Josh Williams 5
514 : Emilio Rentería 3

644 : LEAGUE MEDIAN

667 : Tony Tchani 2
1073 : Dilly Duka 1
1515 : Chris Birchall 1
1603 : Danny O'Rourke 1
2140 : Milovan Mirosevic 1
2881 : Sebastian Miranda 1

Crew players that didn't make TotW or HM this year, of the guys that saw minutes: Speas, Anor, Mendes, Grossman, Gehrig, Finlay, James, George, Lampson, Vukovic, Vargas. Fair or not; of that list, the only one to play over 1000 mins and not get a mention was Vukovic.

Here are some notable names from the rest of the league in terms of how many minutes it takes to earn a team of the week mention:

162 : Alan Gordon
180 : Robbie Keane
205 : Landon Donovan
212 : Marvin Chávez

All these guys had over 1000 minutes.

Not much to go on here with Managers. Ben Olsen was the only one to get mentioned 3 times. Warzycha got mentioned twice but so did 8 others.

One thing that interested me was how much a "Team of the Week" and "Honorable Mention" were worth. You can, if you figure that there are a possible 9044 eligible players generated by from 19 teams playing 34 matches with three available subs.

9044 total slots / 363 TotW picks = a 25 Share
9044 total slots / 581 HM = a 15 Share

Not perfect but close enough for a feature like TofW, so by that logic here are your top 6 MLS performers as picked by MLS themselves:

268 : Chris Wondolowski
254 : Robbie Keane
220 : Landon Donovan
213 : Fredy Montero
194 : Chris Pontius
194 : Brad Davis

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Some interesting things to be found in regards to Major League Soccer's "Team of the Week". If you have questions, you can contact me via twitter @HelltowBeer or email at: ljbaby654@gmail.com

If you are interested in looking over MLS Team of the Week and Honorable Mentions you can find my data HERE.

As with anything, there is an error rate. With this mine happens to be around +/-5%. Reason being; MLSsoccer.com doesn't post this data other than a "conversational" form. They also, because of international breaks and a strange unbalanced schedule, skipped or combined weeks. I had to manually pull this together. It's close enough.

Crew Player Evaluations, GD p90

The Columbus Crew found themselves on a dead even Zero Goal Difference (GD) for the year. Below are players that drove that number up or down for each 90 minutes on the pitch.

GD p90 : NAME : 90 MIN GMs

[GROUP I]
+0.90 : Cole Grossman : 5.6
+0.66 : Carlos Mendes : 10.5
+0.38 : Justin Meram : 10.7
+0.32 : Nemanja Vukovic : 12.4
+0.27 : Federico Higuain : 11.2
+0.23 : Emilio Rentería : 17.1
+0.17 : Dilly Duka : 11.9
+0.15 : Josh Williams : 27.0
+0.13 : Julius James : 7.9
+0.12 : Sebastian Miranda : 32.0
+0.11 : Danny O'Rourke : 17.8

This Group I includes the players the Crew should be locking up for next year. Notable here is Nemanja Vukovic and Emilio Renteria. Two players, based on how they were used, that are seen as part-time contributors by the club staff. This metric tells us that they contribute positively (both played enough time to make a statistically significant contribution).

The class of this group comes in the form of Josh Williams and Sebastian Miranda. Considering the amount of time the put in, both these guys should be hardwired into next year's plans.

Helltown Hero, Cole Grossman, is so out of control high it's crazy. I don't care that his Blue Devil bball teams beat up on my Campbell U. Fighting Camels on a regular basis... Grossman's club numbers are impressive... On top of that he contributed exactly as I would expect a Duke grad to; Intelligently and confidently - with a passing hint of smugness. He's my favorite type of player. One that knows how to win on the team level - also, cerebral and able to survive outside the sport.

[GROUP II]
+0.03 : Andy Gruenebaum : 32.4
+0.00 : Jairo Arrieta : 17.0
-0.03 : Eddie Gaven : 33.2
-0.04 : Milovan Mirosevic : 23.8
-0.06 : Chris Birchall : 16.8

Look at the games these guys racked up. These are the guys that drove the whole of the 2012 season. Consistent performers, but like your Crew toiling their craft at the middle of the table? Pick these guys each match.

[GROUP III]
-0.14 : Tony Tchani : 14.8
-0.17 : Chad Marshall : 23.8
-0.36 : Shaun Francis : 5.6
-0.37 : Bernardo Anor : 5.5
-0.44 : Eric Gehrig : 9.0
-0.54 : Olman Vargas : 7.4

Group III is the bad group. You don't want your name here if you have significant minutes. Especially if your name is Tony Tchani and Chad Marshall.

Below is going to be the guys that didn't see enough time to matter on an individual level. However, as a group, they matter. Just last week a friend of mine sent me an email detailing winning percentage of players in his pickup basketball league. I dug into it and found an all to familiar fact. Players that don't play much hurt your chances of winning. Meaning, The more players you have getting "spot" duty each year the worse off you will be. Since Robert Warzycha took over his teams seem to be hounded by players that pepper the line up.

[GROUP IV]
+1.41 : Ben Speas : 0.7
+0.00 : Kevan George : 4.7
+0.00 : Matt Lampson : 1.6
-0.30 : Aaron Schoenfeld : 3.3
-1.27 : Ethan Finlay : 4.7
-18.00 : Tommy Heinemann : 0.1

Ethan Finlay was dangerously close to topping that 5 game (450 minute) mark. I saw him play a lot this year and am convinced that he is a good soccer player but the way he was jammed into the lineup early on was a mistake. He is too small to play up top, yet he was put there (he actually suffered injury due to that). Finlay can be best used as a player in training behind Sebastian Miranda at Right Back.

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The numbers above are only one way to measure performance, though. With something like GD while on the pitch, look for players with over 10 games (900 minutes). They are the guys that drove results.

Crew Player of the Year

Josh Williams. Helltown Beer Player of the Year, 2012.

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Photographer: Alex West

Cleveland Works Blast Furnace, Cleveland ∞

This is a typical night at the Cleveland Works C-5 blast furnace. Locomotives below switch bottle cars filled with molten steel, while the locomotive above works a line of coke cars. The stack emits a bluish flame as it burns off sulfur. These are multiple infrastructures — locomotive, power, coal, and steel — all merged into one location.

Player Photo: International Soccer Network

Crew Rd. 34: Victory over TFC, Cup

Columbus rounds out the 2012 season on a positive note behind a couple nice goals from Federico Higuain and take home the Trillium cup.

1ST HALF

Toronto FC left themselves pretty exposed in the back from the first whistle and the Crew didn't have much trouble finding naked space in the final third. After knocking on the door a number of times Federico Higuain cleaned up a ball in the box and, with a couple nice jukes, went across his body to beat the TFC 'keeper.

The unbalanced scoreline didn't last long because Toronto's Ryan Johnson flipped up a long ball that bounced past a sliding Eric Gehrig that Andrew Wiedeman gathered and put it past a charging Andy Gruenebaum.

2ND HALF

The game remained surprisingly open but little quality was to be found. It took a horrible decision by TFCs Terry Dunfield to grab the waist of Higuain in the box for a penalty. Higuain converted the penalty. The score remained 2:1 till the end.

GAME OVER, HOOHAS

• Exciting match considering the cold and rainy conditions.

• It's been about a year and a half since I've given out a Man of the Match for a Crew game, Carlos Mendes gets the nod from Helltown this week. A really solid game. Solid year really (outside of the injury).

• Beside Mendes was Eric Gehrig - who had a iffy first half but settled in comfortably in the second. Good to see him out there.

• Also notable was Ben Speas seeing his first League minutes. He played well. Here are some posts where I talk about him over the past year.

• [NSFW] Finally, to close this 2012 season... a girl in the Nordecke exposing herself on Fox Sports Ohio as the game ended. The story has almost 20,000 views already. I think the Crew should win something for making Deadspin the most out of any MLS team this year.

• I hope the folks in Crew offices laugh this one off.

• ...and with that, on to the offseason!

PART 2: Preliminary Evaluation, Crew

In my last post I took a good look at how players were doing in relationship to the Team as a whole. Looking at it that way sort of gives me an idea on which parts directed the 2012 Columbus Crew.

In this post I'm going to look at the similar topics but instead focus on the average number of points a player earns when starting. The way it works is similar to the way a pitcher earns a win in baseball, with a slight difference; I'm keeping the end match result with the starter even if different when he left the field - whereas a Pitcher only gets a result if it is the same as when he was taken out. Why, you ask?

The reason for this is three fold:

A. Much less scoring in soccer so the impact of the subbed player in soccer doesn't single handedly control the result of the match like a middle reliever or closer can, unless you have a guy named Messi on your bench but even then it would be a statistically rare event.
B. Play / pace / flow of soccer match is dictated by starters. The starters do most of the heavy lifting (good or bad). Much of the match determined by lineup.
C. I only have so much time, cut me some slack! As with any statistic it isn't the exact number that matters, the value in the number is to tell you whether the player contributing positively or negatively. Going out 2 or 13 decimal points is for mathematical engineers who have much more data to digest (and get paid).

I understand if the way I am measuring this is a turnoff, but I find the results valuable and reliable. I'm always trying to find different ways of measuring player and team results. Sometimes it works, sometimes not but always learning as I go.

Now, let's take a look at Average Points Earned per Game (PPG) when each individual player starts against team ranked in the Top Half of the League Table (2012). Why: I want to know who performed best against the best. The Crew finished smack dab in the middle of the table (10th).

2012 PPG v Top H : NAME : GMs STARTED v. Top H

2.20 : Cole Grossman : 5
1.75 : Carlos Mendes : 8
1.75 : Dilly Duka : 8
1.60 : Nemanja Vukovic : 5
1.25 : Emilio Renteria : 8
1.25 : Sebastián Miranda : 16
1.25 : Joshua Williams : 16
1.20 : Justin Meram : 10
1.20 : Chris Birchall : 10
1.18 : Eddie Gaven : 17
1.18 : Andy Gruenebaum : 17
1.14 : Tony Tchani : 7
1.14 : Danny O´Rourke : 7
0.91 : Chad Marshall : 11
0.90 : Jairo Obando Arrieta : 10
0.80 : Julius James : 5
0.44 : Milovan Mirosevic : 9

(Here are the guys with less than 5 starts)
1.50 : Shaun Francis : 2
1.00 : Bernardo Anor : 3
0.67 : Olman Vargas : 3
0.33 : Federico Higuaín : 3
0.33 : Eric Gehrig : 3

I talked about this in my last post but worth mentioning again because the Crew really struggled against top competition this year. Particularly notable at the bottom are Marshall, Arrieta, Mirosevic. James only had 5 starts, so like Grossman at the top, it should be only really looked at as likely trend.

On the positive side I like Mendes and Duka along with Miranda and Williams as the solid performers against the top. Remember, this is only against teams 1-9 on the table.

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LOOKING BACK TO MOVE FORWARD

To put some of the 2012 numbers in perspective I pulled the results for last year for each player when they faced a team in the top half. It worked out to be teams 1-8 on the table since the Crew were 9th.

2011 PPG v Top H : NAME : GMs STARTED v. Top H

2.00 : Rich Balchan : 8
1.86 : Kevin Burns : 7
1.73 : Eddie Gaven : 11
1.57 : Emmanuel Ekpo : 14
1.44 : Chad Marshall : 16
1.43 : Tom Heinemann : 7
1.43 : Julius James : 14
1.40 : Dejan Rusmir : 5
1.40 : Emilio Renteria : 5
1.36 : Joshua Gardner : 11
1.35 : Sebastián Miranda : 17
1.25 : Will Hesmer : 16
1.14 : Andrés Mendoza : 14
1.08 : Robbie Rogers : 13
0.63 : Dilly Duka : 8

(Here are the guys with less than 5 starts)
3.00 : Justin Meram : 2
3.00 : Andy Gruenebaum : 1
1.50 : Bernardo Anor : 4
0.25 : Danny O´Rourke : 4
0.25 : Shaun Francis : 4

Looking at it this way you can see that the 2011 team was better at beating the best in Major League Soccer. 2012 only saw four players with over 5 starts >1.50 PPG. Curious, because as a team the Crew earned a higher avg. PPG in 2012.

The stand outs in 2011 featured mostly players that didn't play this year... Balchan, Burns, Ekpo, Heinemann, Rusmir. Interesting that only Balchan and Heinemann are still with the team (didn't play due to injury).

I'm sure there are a few rolling their eyes at Kevin Burns. The guy, for whatever reason, fell out of favor with fans and management last year. Numbers don't lie - your eyes do (especially after you have been drinking, evaluating from field level or the Nordecke and tweeting the whole time). No question that Burns contributed against quality opposition. Both he and Rusmir performed significantly better than their 2012 replacements (Birchall and Mirosevic). If the move away from Burns and Rusmir had to do with injury or contract than that is one thing, but to replace due to performance and/or results is another. If it is the latter, it was a failure. The time and effort to find, sign and move Birchall and Mirosevic could have been put into something more productive.

Here are the two lists (2011/2012) merged. PPG represents combined results from both years.

2011+2012 PPG v Top H : NAME : GMs STARTED v. Top H

2.20 : Cole Grossman : 5
2.00 : Rich Balchan : 8
1.86 : Kevin Burns : 7
1.75 : Carlos Mendes : 8
1.60 : Nemanja Vukovic : 5
1.57 : Emmanuel Ekpo : 14
1.50 : Justin Meram : 12
1.43 : Tom Heinemann : 7
1.40 : Dejan Rusmir : 5
1.39 : *Eddie Gaven : 28
1.36 : Joshua Gardner : 11
1.31 : *Emilio Renteria : 13
1.30 : *Sebastián Miranda : 33
1.29 : *Bernardo Anor : 7
1.28 : Andy Gruenebaum : 18
1.26 : *Julius James : 19
1.25 : Will Hesmer : 16
1.25 : Joshua Williams : 16
1.22 : *Chad Marshall : 27
1.20 : Chris Birchall : 10
1.19 : *Dilly Duka : 16
1.14 : Andrés Mendoza : 14
1.08 : Robbie Rogers : 13
1.00 : Tony Tchani : 8
0.90 : Jairo Obando Arrieta : 10
0.82 : *Danny O´Rourke : 11
0.67 : *Shaun Francis : 6
0.67 : Olman Vargas : 3
0.44 : Milovan Mirosevic : 9
0.33 : Federico Higuaín : 3
0.20 : Eric Gehrig : 5

* Started more than 5 games both years. Pulling them out looks like this:

1.39 : *Eddie Gaven : 28
1.31 : *Emilio Renteria : 13
1.30 : *Sebastián Miranda : 33
1.29 : *Bernardo Anor : 7
1.26 : *Julius James : 19
1.22 : *Chad Marshall : 27
1.19 : *Dilly Duka : 16
0.82 : *Danny O´Rourke : 11
0.67 : *Shaun Francis : 6

Out of the players to see significant time both years only Dilly Duka and Danny O'Rourke improved (Duka, remarkably so). I believe it has to do with how they were used last year to this. As in 2011 both only saw spot starts while 2012 saw them starting more (O'Rourke still shaky).

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CLOSING COMMENT

The achilles heel for the Crew this year was when regular starters, in particular; new signings late in the year, faced quality teams. The Crew faced teams in the top half of the table an equal 17 times in both 2011 and 2012. 2011 saw two more wins in those 17.

Perhaps this has to do with unbalanced scheduling or perhaps it just has to do with new players adjusting to new lives in a different city (or country). The answer isn't really clear.

What is clear is that I hope the team makes informed decisions about players going into this offseason. Personal feelings, vendetta's, cultural differences, revenge, fan outrage/favor or bias should always take a backseat to results.

Create a reliable and valuable measurement system - explain the system to your team - reward those who perform above expectations / punish those below.

Is solely looking at record against good teams the only tool to use? Of course not. Is it something that should be valued? I think so.