Dangerous Play, Mistakes, Poor Officiating Highlight Crew Draw in Colorado

Colorado got away with a couple wild tackles that should have probably been red cards last night. One of them on Hector Jimenez might have been season ending. On top of that, there was a poor offside decision that took a goal away from Jairo Arrieta and, on the other side, a handball on Eric Gehrig that should have probably been a penalty.

Ultimately things fell all even at 1-1.

Notes on Crew Scoring:
• The Crew were very aggressive in attack but ended up being wasteful.
• Crew last in converting Shots on Target to non-penalty goals (takes 4.76 SOT to get 1 goal, or: only 21% of SOT go in). That's almost a full shot more than the league median.
• Average PPG for bottom 5 in converting SOT to Goals = 1.15
• Average PPG for top 5 = 1.67
• Ethan Finlay crossed 450 minutes played threshold, has 0.99 non-penalty goals (NPG)+assists per game (very good).
• Crew almost completely reliant on goals from right side of 18 yard box from Finlay and Justin Meram cutting in from the left atop the 18.
• Crew averaging less than one (0.88) NPG per game. Third lowest in league.
• Takes added touch, skill, technical ability to score at a pro level.

Crew Rd 17, Away to Colorado

July 4th means annual away match for the Columbus Crew. This year it is against the Colorado Rapids. Kick off is 9:30 PM EST.

 GAME NOTES 
CLB: Higuain and Trapp recovering, might be limited
CLB: Starters Giancarlo Gonzalez and Waylon Francis still in Brazil
CLB: Crew team rating dropped to 4th worse according to WhoScored
COL: Have won the last 3 between vs Crew
COL: Have won the last 3 at home, all by shutout
COL: Allow 2nd least shots per game (only behind Sporting KC)

 TEN PREDICTIONS 
Number on left is percentage accuracy picking 2014 Columbus Crew results only.

56% WHOSCORED.COM ... COLORADO RAPIDS
Graham Ruthven comfortably most accurate in picking Crew matches this year. His quick take: "The Columbus Crew are languishing in mid-table in the Eastern Conference, having drawn all of their last three games. The Crew will be looking to snap that streak against the Rapids, but with a win rather than a defeat."

50% COLUMBUS DISPATCH ... COLORADO RAPIDS
Lots of good Crew stuff in today's paper, you should go pick it up. Info and quotes on Gonzalez and comments on attendance. Adam Jardy thinks it's difficult to predict a Crew win today in his preview.

44% GOAL.COM ... (no preview yet)

38% MLSSOCCER ... (no picks yet)

38% WIN DRAW WIN ... COLORADO RAPIDS
Heavily Rapids this time. Large stake on 2-0 home win and Crew only getting 14% in the "your votes" (55% Rapids).

31% BET365 ... COLORADO RAPIDS
5/6 odds in Colorado's favor (13/5 draw, 16/5 Crew).

31% HOME TEAM ... COLORADO RAPIDS
Colorado is always a tough place to play but add in a rare Friday kick and likely larger crowd for fireworks and hill gets steeper.

13% TABLE POSITION ... COLORADO RAPIDS
Rapids have a pretty good young team.

--% WV HOOLIGAN ... (no pick)

--% MASSIVE REPORT ... (no pick)
Head over to Massive Report for Patrick Murphy's latest on the Columbus Crew.

 MY PREDICTION 

Dillon Powers, Rapids

Tough to say the Crew can pull this one out with almost half the regular starters either missing or in various stages of injury recovery.

Looking at longer view, Crew 10 and 20 game points per game averages in danger of bottoming out at lows not regularly seen in over 7 years. For this to change the Crew are going to have earn more than a couple wins in the coming weeks. The only thing keeping the team in the hunt is the bingo hopper most of the teams seem to have fallen in to during a World Cup year.

Crew Rd 10: Again? Shutout at Home

Despite generating a number of chances, the Columbus Crew fall to the Colorado Rapids two:nil at Crew Stadium.

1ST HALF

This game got off to at fast start. After Jairo Arrieta almost 'stole' an early goal, Colorado game down finished their chance in the 9th minute. The goal was scored by former Crew player Edson Buddle who, without the ball, weaved his way through half of Crew team to get himself in position. Some really poor defensive play as five Crew players were playing the ball.

From there the game turned into more what fans of both these squads have come to expect. Teams on hyper speed, no patience and unable to string 2 or 3 passes together. Columbus did manage a couple shots on target but nothing really troubled the Rapids' goalkeeper.

2ND HALF
More of the same. There was a slight difference in the Crew as they usually come out of halftime with a spark. It wasn't there this game. Energy was up but no extra pep. In fact, 10 minutes of the half went by before the Crew were even able to get an attempt off. Odd considering the team had a season high 22 shots on the night.

By the time the 60th minute rolled around the Crew were playing themselves back into better offensive areas. Unfortunately Colorado was able to get a lucky deflection from a Dillon Powers shot that wound up beating Andy Gruenebaum.

From there, even the Nordecke seemed to quiet. The Crew players forged on playing okay but lacked any sort of quality finishing.

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FINALS THOUGHTS
• The Crew weren't lacking effort, just lacking skill and patience. Talented players but at times they look like strangers out there.

• What's the rush, Crew? Calm down. I dislike soccer in hot summer temps but it might be the best thing for this group.

• Know that part in Indiana Jones were the guy goes nuts whipping around his sword and Indiana just pulls out his gun and shoots him? That's the Crew in last two games. The sword guy.

• Dominic Oduro is not a midfield player. In order for the Crew to win games they need strong play in the middle third to free up Higuain. Instead, it's pretty much just Eddie Gaven and Higuain running all over the place.

• Crew passing in the middle third was in the 70% range, about the same as Colorado. That needs to be better. Aside: Crew chances came from the Rapids terrible distribution in their own 1/3rd.

• Two losses in row at home, both shutouts. Quickest way to lose your fans.

• This is the only 3 game homestand the Crew have this year. 3pts from it.

• After Toronto FC this weekend the schedule gets pretty difficult. NY, Houston, Philly, Montreal. All teams above them. Crew have proven to struggle with better teams since the middle of last year.

• Lastly, this game was the last for long-time 'does everything' Crew man, Duncan Oughton. I've never heard anyone say a bad thing about him and he has been with the club for a decade. If there was one person in the Crew org that should have been retained, it was him. Duncan heads out for his new assistant coach job in Toronto this week.

Predictions: Crew (H) v Rapids

Good Morning,

Columbus finishes up a three game home stand tonight by hosting a streaking Colorado Rapids team. Kick off is at 7:30 PM EST and 5:30 PM MDT. Temps will be in the low 60s and there is a chance of rain. Good soccer weather.

NOTES
-Colorado has 3 wins in last 5, draw Houston away two weeks ago
-Crew lost at home last week to NY
-Crew without regulars Danny O'Rourke and Agustin Viana
-Rapids are 1-2-2 Away this year
-Crew only have 1 win in 4 at home in 2013
-When Edson Buddle plays, Rapids have won 3, tied 1
-Crew; 5 pts in last 5, Rapids 10 pts.

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PREDICTIONS

Gonna start off with Drew Epperley over at WV Hooligan this week. He puts it down sharply; "This is a game that the Crew have to win if they want to stay with the big boys." He likes the Crew today by 2:0 result.

The same vibe is coming out of MLSsoccer.com offices. All six of the "Pick 'Em" staffers like the Crew. Matt Doyle is still leading the pack with 46% accuracy (they only call on result, not scores). Jason Saghini, Andrew Wiebe, and Kristel Valencia are tied at bottom with 38% accuracy.

Adam Jardy, on the Crew beat for the Dispatch here in town, feels that "anything less than 3 points will be a disappointment." He also mentions that Crew practices have been intense this week coming off last weeks loss to NY.

Meanwhile, over at newly designed Goal.com nobody seems to interested in an early season CLB COL matchup. My score prediction of 6-7 Colorado stands as 50% of the vote.

Bet365 likes the Crew this week, 10/11 odds to win. 12/5 Draw and 3/1 Colorado Rapids.

Win Draw Win 'your vote' section actually likes Colorado this week. 37% of the vote going their way and another 35% picking a Draw. Surprising stake on a 0:1 Rapids win as well.

Last up is a link to The Burgundy Wave, where writer nickdrfc is thinking positively for his Rapids. Also of note; knows exactly what the Crew are doing.

Over at our own Massive Report, Patrick Guldan thinks the Crew will win 2:1.

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MY THOUGHTS

Colorado has been a little sneaky this year in getting results as not many expect them to make much noise. They are banged up and very young. Columbus, on the other hand, does have some expectation to do well this year but have not and are healthy.

So, we have a classic sports tale of the moderate overachiever taking on a slightly underachiever.

I am not surprised with the Win Draw Win vote prediction leaning Rapids, especially considering that the Crew is probably too heavily favored over at Bet365. I called this a Rapids win last Monday on the Massive Report podcast before the news of Danny O'Rourke being out. I'll stick by that call.

Columbus does have the ability to score goals if things tilt their way (much more so than the Rapids) but I think that they will be able to gum up the works.

We'll see. Going to be at this one, looking forward to it.

Crew Round 1 Recap: Deserved Loss

The Colorado Rapids scored right before half (44th min), another near the end of the game (89th) and shutout the Crew for a 2-0 win.

From the start there was an opening game feel to this one. In the first 10 minutes there were 7 fouls, a hand ball and two injury stoppages.

The injured players were Crew. Chad Marshall took (another) slight shot to his head in the first couple minutes then, 5 minutes later, Dilly Duka went down with a leg problem that had him leave the game.

The game stayed messy but the Rapids were able to pull together a few good spells of passing and possession.

Key to this Game: PASSING
If it felt like Crew passing was off, it's because it was. SUCCESSFUL PASSING RATES: 69% CREW, 73% RAPIDS

Individually, the Crew only had two guys with a passing rate above the Rapids team average (O'Rourke 86%, Marshall 74%). For the Rapids it was three solid mid-fielders: Mastroeni (90%), Castrillon (84%), and Larentowicz (75%) who controlled the action over the Crew's two best in Gaven (72%), Mirosevic (70%).

The Crew's other mid-field players struggled a bit more with passing. Kirk Uro (69%), Tchani (67%) and Finlay (65%). Speed, accuracy, and decision making were left wanting.

The Rapids were asking the most of questions and that left Crew mid-fielders Urso, Tchani and Finlay playing back. Because of that defensive posture, the Crew were out shot 17 to 5.

It's worth mentioning that the two Crew professional soccer debutantes (Urso and Finlay) showed hustle and grit in the face of a challenging situation.

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Even with a new coach, Colorado fielded a familiar team with many of the same experienced parts as last year.

The Crew, on the other hand, started with little year over year consistency.

Of the 14 Crew players that saw time, only 6 were regulars last year. You could see and feel the frustration of this unfamiliarity play out on the (normally not frustrated) faces of Miranda and Gaven most of the game.

Warzycha's gameplan was to pull a point from this game but his execution of it was sloppy. Two college kids and a 6'4 man-child getting significant minutes during a season opener doesn't synchronize well with trying to earn a draw. Especially at high altitude and especially when a couple slightly more experienced game ready (not practice / scrimmage ready) players (Anor and Gehrig) might have kept this one more level.

The time of goals show that it was Colorado's experience, consistency and the full 90 minute effort that won them this game against a very unprepared group.

////////////////////2012 Crew Rd 1 Program

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Game Program Win / Loss Result Accuracy Since June 26th, 2011

6 Correct
1 Draw (game ended in tie)
2 Wrong

Rapids 1, Crew Out

I woke up early with full intention of gathering my thoughts on the Colorado / Columbus game last night but I just can't get past something... The tweaks to the line up Robert Warzycha (and Mike Lapper) made.

1. Tony Tchani; first game in a Crew uniform and first game since July 9th; 2. Dilly Duka in an advanced position with Mendoza. Neither happened at all during the year. Both are talented players, but it's odd to see changes like this in an important game.

Changes to line-ups, especially last minute ones (O'Rourke) can change a team's mood. Sometimes good, sometimes bad. I can't say for certain that was the root cause for the Crew to come out flat, but I feel like it may have contributed. At times, when in possession, it looked like strangers playing pick up out there.

I'll let this quote wrap up things for me here so I can head off and get some coffee:

"It was just little things. That’s what’s really killed us pretty much this whole season.” - Eddie Gaven

MLS Playoff Scenario

Major League Soccer sets this sucker up so anything can happen but I've done my best, based on season results, to predict what will happen.

Columbus has Colorado on Thursday. Over the past several months I've grown to respect the Colorado Rapids. I feel like they are in the same place as the Crew in a few ways. Nothing flashy about the Rapids Cup winning side last year. The only thing that really got peoples attention with them this year was negative play.

The Rapids are not a dirty team. In fact, they have conceded the 2nd fewest fouls this year. Though, they do draw the 2nd highest Yellow Card per/Foul Conceded (15.5% of fouls resulting in a yellow. San Jose number 1 at 16.6%).

They also aren't on "national" TV along with the Crew on Thursday. Only MLS Cup Playoff game to not be televised on Fox Soccer or the ESPN network.

My heart tells me that Columbus can win this game, but reason is telling me otherwise. The deck is stacked against them a bit. It's in Colorado. Later start time (10 PM). The altitude is always tough. Going to be cold. And I believe that the CCL games have made the Rapids stronger.

Goals For and Goals Against are surprisingly similar, but Colorado is better at both. Were this a neutral site I'd say it is a tight 2-1 game, either way.

Columbus won one (4-1 at home) and lost one (2-0 away) against them this year. The away game was where Eddie Gaven got hurt and thus started the Crew decent deep into several levels of hell during the final third of the season.

Had Gaven not been injured by Jeff Larentowicz the Crew would have won the East.

HOW I THINK IT WILL PLAY OUT
Columbus tested an Attack First mindset two weeks ago Against the Revs but last weekend they went back to a defensive minded mid-field team. I expect more of the Chicago type game for the Crew / Rapids. 3 or 4 goal affair.

Go Crew.

Door Opened for Rapids 2-0

Eddie Gaven went down in the third minute with an injury. The Crew battled in the MF without him but the Rapids had their hands on the controls of this game. The Crew even had a sub for a sub in the middle in attempt to pry the ball off their feet. Haven't seen a sub sub for a while (Gaven sub: Anor. Anor sub: Meram) but it happened last night by a team searching for some possession and a link to the two fellas up top.

Speaking of Anor and Meram. Both came out of the chute guns blazing early in the year but have since gone a bit quiet. Solid, but quiet. I bring this up because Eric Gehrig, another new young player, started slow but is coming on starting to play on a good MLS level. No fireworks to his start like the other two. No fancy headlines for him either. He's just putting in the work. I like that.

It is important to remember that it is Dilly Duka's injury that has given these young players time. The future for the three of them looks good but in order for this team to stay in the hunt for the Cup they are going to need Mr. Gaven and a Mr. Duka healthy.
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No news on Eddie's foot as I write this but I got a message from Bleeno last night that I fear is going to be correct: "shit. gaven's leg looks like a months-out kind of injury."

Impressive Crew Win Over Rapids, 4-1

as promised in my game preview post:

Pivotal 5 Weeks, Crew v. Rapids Preview

The Crew are starting their busiest month of the season. Nine games already scheduled between now and the end of July. More if they get past the Richmond Kickers on Tuesday (US Open Cup game). It's the kind of run in the middle of the season that can make or break the team. I'm really looking forward to it, truth be told.

This mid-season clump of games presents interesting lineup challenges for the Coach Warzycha and Co. In a way, having players out recently due to minor injury might have been a mini blessing in disguise. I expect Duka, Griffit and Renteria getting healthy for this stretch. Who knows, we may even get to see local hero Mr. Danny O'Rourke out there soon. He has been a regular starter since joining the team back in 2007. It's been strange not seeing him out there this year. We are suddenly looking at a very deep MLS team if these guys get healthy.

On to the Crew v. Rapids.

Columbus is currently (and surprisingly) sitting in 3rd in the East. A win today puts them tied NY for 2nd with a game in hand. I'm not sure anyone expected that this far in at the start of the season.

Last year's MLS Cup winner Colorado is having a good year as well. I have MF Jeff Larentowicz ranked in the top 20. He's the man to watch today. The Rapids are going to be a bit hobbled though without Striker Caleb Folan (Red Card) but it could be argued that Omar Cummings (2 goals, 1 assist in only 551 mins) and Conor Casey (3 goals, 1 assist 562 mins) are playing just as well. Actually, they are playing just as well.

The game today will be between two teams about as evenly matched as they come. Similar GF and GA per game. Similar records and similar goal distribution between players on each team.

It's going to be a beautiful evening in Columbus. It rained all morning but has since stopped and the temps will be in the mid-60s. Add in a reasonable start time and we have ourselves the makings of a great game.

Helltown Beer inside info that you'd probably rather not know:

The game is scheduled on a semi-unusual Sunday at 8pm because of the Kenny Chesney concert last night which, I hear, some of the rookie Crew players attended. Hey, if they got them a little country in 'em? Good. I'd like to think Gaven and Marshall were at the local pub watching the US Mexico game sipping scotch. Next go 'round fellas, next one. Anyway, the Crew stadium crew has been spending the whole day cleaning up and getting the pitch ready. Let's hope it's in good shape.

2nd place in the East? I like how that sounds.

PS. 2606 video treatment for Eddie if he scores tonight.

RE: Rapids SUBJECT: A Call to Arms

The Rapids knocked the Crew out of the playoffs last year on their way to winning the MLS Cup. That's cool. We're all good. Go up there and meet the President. Congrats.

When I ventured out to follow my local soccer team this year I made sure to check up on all the current blogs and newspapers already doing so. There weren't many. Massive Report does a great job (Matt Bernhardt, glad he's on our side). Shawn Mitchell over at the Dispatch does a good job too. My favorite Crew blog is Global Football Today's David Burgin. Goddamn, he's good.

Over the last couple months I've gotten to read up on what other teams have as far as fans writing in either long form or short. I've learnt that some MLS teams have intelligent fans and some don't. I was happy to see last week that Houston had great coverage outside the official MLS stuff. But the Rapids? Ya'll suck. Your SB Nation report on the Crew was the most uninformed thing I've read to date. I already dislike SB Nation stuff because out of all the teams in the MLS the Crew are the only team that don't have a blog listed. But you? Your scout drivel on the Crew takes the cake. Saying the Crew hasn't won an away game right after the team just did was odd.

The Crew made some massive changes to their team this year and many thought that this would be a "down year" for the team and not find themselves in third place in the East with almost half the season over. Disjointed? Yeah. But here they are in the hunt.

I dislike calling out other teams based on reports and fans. It's about the players on the pitch. But this one struck a nerve.

Gaven. Mendoza. Marshall. Hesmer. Youngin's Meram, Balchan, Anor. And even you Gardner.

A Call to Arms. Go Crew.