2019 MLS Prediction Recap

Turns out my 2019 predictions were very good. In fact, 2nd best in comparison to six pundits over at MLS HQ and two others outside MLS.

Last year around this time I started diving into Eastern Conference MLS teams. The dive was pretty deep. If you are on the desktop version of this site, you will find them in the January 2019 dropdown on the right. The posts are titled "Preseason Look..."

What I ended up using was a combination of WhoScored, (the always excellent) Football Manager player ratings, and EA's FIFA 19 player ratings. From there, I dug into what Transfer Market had to say about individual player values (although, I did not take that into consideration with my final rank last year. Just used as a sanity check).

Below are how the predictions panned out. On the left is final Conf position - to the right of the list of teams are were everyone thought teams would finish.

	Team	Baer	Carr	Davies	Doyle	Warshaw	Wiebe	LJ
1	NYCFC	7	6	7	8	8	5	2
2	Atlanta United	1	2	1	2	1	1	3
3	Philadelphia Union	4	3	3	5	4	7	9
4	Toronto FC	6	8	5	9	6	9	1
5	D.C. United	5	4	4	3	2	3	4
6	New York Red Bulls	3	1	2	1	3	2	5
7	New England Revolution	11	11	6	10	12	10	8
8	Chicago Fire	8	10	11	6	5	8	11
9	Montreal Impact	10	9	10	4	9	4	6
10	Columbus Crew SC	2	5	8	7	7	6	7
11	Orlando City SC	9	12	9	12	11	11	12
12	FC Cincinnati	12	7	12	11	10	12	10

Rank: Average position places off:

Avg Off	Name
1.8	Davies
2.1	Crowd
2.2	LJ
2.3	Baer
2.5	Warshaw
2.7	Carr
2.7	Wiebe
3.0	Doyle

Rank: Median position places off:

Median Off	Name
1.0	Davies
1.5	LJ
1.5	Baer
1.8	Crowd
2.5	Warshaw
2.5	Doyle
3.0	Carr
3.5	Wiebe

Rank: Within one spot on the table:

Within 1	Name
7	Davies
6	LJ
5	Baer
5	Carr
5	Crowd
4	Warshaw
4	Wiebe
3	Doyle

Rank: Way off - teams >5 spots off:

Way Off	Name
1	Davies
1	LJ
1	Crowd
2	Warshaw
2	Wiebe
4	Baer
4	Carr
4	Doyle

I'm pretty happy with where I finished, which was basically second to Charlie Davies (congrats buddy). I'm particularly happy with only having one team way off on my table. It was Philly. Their team was being built differently, so it was hard to get my hands around them.

The other one I wish I had back was Columbus. I knew that Zach Steffen was leaving in the summer, I should have factored that in somehow.

Lastly, I finished fiddling with my team rankings around the end of January. I should have probably waited till late Feb. 

Thanks for reading. If you have any questions or comments, let me know at --

lwjohnson654@yahoo.com

Predictions: Crew (A) v Toronto

The Columbus Crew travel to BMO Field to take on Toronto FC today. Afternoon kickoff at 2:00 PM EST. 11:00 AM out west.

GAME NOTES
CLB: Columbus won at BMO earlier this year 1:0
CLB: Lineup changes, different from previous 2 games
CLB: Only 1 win last 6 on road (Loss last 3)
TFC: No wins at BMO in over a year.
TFC: 3 Draws last 6 at home (Draw last 2)
TFC: Koevermans, Earnshaw Questionable

PREDICTIONS
In no particular order. For order of most accurate check HERE.

1. MLSSOCCER.COM ... TFC
Somewhat surprisingly the panel at the league base site likes Toronto today. 4 of the 6 have them down in the WIN column and the other two? Draw.

2. WIN DRAW WIN ... CREW
The 'Your Votes' has Columbus with 45% of the vote and lists a Medium Stake on a 0:1 Away side win.

3. WVHOOLIGAN.COM ... DRAW
"Isn’t this a rivalry game? Sure why not." Drew Epperley stated last week the Crew season was effectively over. He likes this one to end on even terms, however. 1:1 at BMO.

4. BET365 ... TFC
Toronto at 29/20, Draw 21/10 and Crew 2/1. We are on the back half of the season now so we should start seeing bad home sides drifting away from even.

5. GOAL.COM ... CREW
Kieth Hickey got the call today to do the one line summary, "With TFC struggling yet again this year, Columbus looks to seal yet another Trillium Cup victory." Few votes on the predictor but what is there has this one even.

6. COLUMBUS DISPATCH ... LEAN CREW
Columbus beat writer Adam Jardy calls this one "a tricky challenge for the Crew." Jardy isn't shying away from approaching things honestly at this point in the season by saying the team's playoff hopes are 'flickering' and in the headline today, describing the team as 'sputtering'.

7. CURRENT TABLE ... CREW

8. HOME TEAM ... TFC

MY THOUGHTS
The last few teams to go to BMO Field have gone there 'not to lose'. Nobody wants to lose there as Toronto have been terrible. It sucks for TFC fans, really.

I think the Crew are looking for a Draw as well. Head Coach Robert Warzycha said as much yesterday in an interview ("...draw not worst result"). I think that comes from some fear of being THAT team that lost to TFC. The Crew can't worry about that though.

Columbus / Toronto games are often dull affairs. This one being in the early afternoon doesn't help things (those matinee games are often boring, no matter who is playing).

I wouldn't expect this one to be any different but there is always hope for the spectacular. Even when you have a third to last place team playing second to last.

Looks like great soccer weather up there today. Cool in the low 70s with a slight chance of ran. Perfect for the players. Enjoy the match.

Predictions: Crew (H) v Rapids

Good Morning,

Columbus finishes up a three game home stand tonight by hosting a streaking Colorado Rapids team. Kick off is at 7:30 PM EST and 5:30 PM MDT. Temps will be in the low 60s and there is a chance of rain. Good soccer weather.

NOTES
-Colorado has 3 wins in last 5, draw Houston away two weeks ago
-Crew lost at home last week to NY
-Crew without regulars Danny O'Rourke and Agustin Viana
-Rapids are 1-2-2 Away this year
-Crew only have 1 win in 4 at home in 2013
-When Edson Buddle plays, Rapids have won 3, tied 1
-Crew; 5 pts in last 5, Rapids 10 pts.

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PREDICTIONS

Gonna start off with Drew Epperley over at WV Hooligan this week. He puts it down sharply; "This is a game that the Crew have to win if they want to stay with the big boys." He likes the Crew today by 2:0 result.

The same vibe is coming out of MLSsoccer.com offices. All six of the "Pick 'Em" staffers like the Crew. Matt Doyle is still leading the pack with 46% accuracy (they only call on result, not scores). Jason Saghini, Andrew Wiebe, and Kristel Valencia are tied at bottom with 38% accuracy.

Adam Jardy, on the Crew beat for the Dispatch here in town, feels that "anything less than 3 points will be a disappointment." He also mentions that Crew practices have been intense this week coming off last weeks loss to NY.

Meanwhile, over at newly designed Goal.com nobody seems to interested in an early season CLB COL matchup. My score prediction of 6-7 Colorado stands as 50% of the vote.

Bet365 likes the Crew this week, 10/11 odds to win. 12/5 Draw and 3/1 Colorado Rapids.

Win Draw Win 'your vote' section actually likes Colorado this week. 37% of the vote going their way and another 35% picking a Draw. Surprising stake on a 0:1 Rapids win as well.

Last up is a link to The Burgundy Wave, where writer nickdrfc is thinking positively for his Rapids. Also of note; knows exactly what the Crew are doing.

Over at our own Massive Report, Patrick Guldan thinks the Crew will win 2:1.

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MY THOUGHTS

Colorado has been a little sneaky this year in getting results as not many expect them to make much noise. They are banged up and very young. Columbus, on the other hand, does have some expectation to do well this year but have not and are healthy.

So, we have a classic sports tale of the moderate overachiever taking on a slightly underachiever.

I am not surprised with the Win Draw Win vote prediction leaning Rapids, especially considering that the Crew is probably too heavily favored over at Bet365. I called this a Rapids win last Monday on the Massive Report podcast before the news of Danny O'Rourke being out. I'll stick by that call.

Columbus does have the ability to score goals if things tilt their way (much more so than the Rapids) but I think that they will be able to gum up the works.

We'll see. Going to be at this one, looking forward to it.

Predictions: Crew (H) v. NYRB

Good Morning,

The Columbus Crew are playing Red Bulls tonight at Crew Stadium under a wounded but functional scoreboard. Early 4:00 PM EST kickoff (Reserve game to follow). Game is 'nationally televised' on NBC Sports network.

::NOTES::
-Crew looking for 1st consecutive wins since Sept 1 last year (16 games). Only TFC longer (22 games).
-2nd consecutive home match out of 3 for the Crew.
-NY embarrassed CLB in this fixture last year, 4:1
-NY on mini hot streak, have won 3 out of last 4
-Columbus stopped a D,D,L slide without Arrieta, win 3:0 over DC last week
-NY beat same DC team in DC 2:0 4 weeks ago.

::PREDICTIONS::
Starting with a doozy over at Win Draw Win. Their impressively accurate 'your vote' section (greater than 60% accurate with CLB games) has Crew almost as a sure fire win at 65% while NY chances are at a minuscule 7%. On top of that they are claiming large stake on 3:0 Crew. Something appears not quite right, but it is what it is I guess.

The MLSsoccer.com group likes Crew again this week. Four out of six like them to take outright win. Diego Pinzon (Draw) and Jason Saghini (NY Win) dissenting. Matt Doyle, most accurate at 46% (rest of group 37-41%) has the Crew winning.

Over at Goal.com, where there doesn't appear to be many vote, we see the fan's taking NY today with 61.5% of the vote. Draw least likely at 15.4%.

Columbus is odds on favorite at Bet365 this morning at 7/5. Draw 23/10 and NY win 19/10. Normal MLS odds on scorelines.

Lastly, Crew beat writer and 'area man' seems to be optimistic about this one. He also says that this could even tell the world that "the Crew is a serious contender" in the East if get a win here.

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::MY THOUGHTS::
The long dry consecutive wins streak for the Crew is troubling.

Wouldn't be surprised if the Crew play, once again, not to lose. Outside of Robert Warzycha's normal propensity to play that way, this fixture last year rattled this Crew team after the 4:1 beating. Crew went on to lose three and draw two in their next five matches which absolutely set them way back on the year.

This year is a little different for the Crew as they have had more games as a group together. More pre-season and regular season matches to become a lot more consistent. In fact, this is probably the most consistent I've seen the Crew this year. Even with Viana out at left back, he is getting replaced with Tyson Wahl, who was playing that spot earlier this year.

Result? The biggest problem for this NY team sometimes seems to be level of interest but shouldn't be a problem here because it will be the NBC Sports national game.

If the Crew play more open and someone scores in the first, say, 25 mins this one could be a really fun one to watch. Maybe a 2:2 or 3:2 type game. If not? Look for this to turn into a counter attacking 'spring Henry' or 'spring free Arrieta and Oduro' type thing.

Tough one to call. One thing is for sure, look for Glauber to get his next yellow (suspending him for next match) pulling down Henry on the break.

How about this one has 4 goals in it, split even.

Predictions: Crew (H) v. DC

Good Afternoon,

Columbus play their third game of the season at home tonight as they host DC United. Game Start: 7:30 PM EST. Word is sales have been good but critical Home Blue Jackets game starts at 7:00 PM. Will be interesting to see how the stands look.

::GAME NOTES::
-Crew looking to make a couple starting lineup changes after a few lackluster results.
-For the 2nd week in a row, Crew facing team at bottom of table.
-DC hasn't gotten a point in last four, last win was 5 games ago.
-2012 Allstar and DC team leader Chris Pontius is out (or taking break).

::PREDICTIONS::
Starting off with Win Draw Win's 'Your Vote' section and it has Columbus, assuredly. 56% on Crew win, 30% draw, with the remaining 12% going to DC.

Going with Adam Jardy, who is on the Crew beat here in town, early here. He is a little unsure how things might turn out. Surprising if you are an outsider looking in but not so much if you follow this team. Jardy from today's paper; "Trying to get an accurate read on either of these teams is difficult."

Drew Epperley at WV Hooligan thinks "the Crew have the offensive muscle" to pull this on out 2:1 over DC.

For the third week in a row the dudes at MLSsoccer.com like the Crew. In fact it is an overwhelming six out of six that pick the Crew this week. Amazing.

Looks like Matt Doyle is still on top with 50% accuracy. Everyone else is 41% or below. Andrew Wiebe still pulling up the rear at 35%. Same guy that wrote the now edited comparison of MLS to other top leagues using basic statistics. Interesting note on that article is that the word "eurosnob" has been removed. Here is the full note on the edit:

EDITORS' NOTE: Due to a miscalculation of MLS's 2012 stats from an outside contractor, a previous version of this article displayed some errors in the statistics, including goals per game and passes attempted. They have been corrected.

They got it wrong, didn't triple check numbers then blamed the contractor. The maturity level here is astonishing.

Next up is our friends at BET365 who likes the Crew. A lot. Better than even for Crew at 8/11 (13/5 Draw and 15/4 DC). Interesting it is so heavy.

Patrick Guldan at the best Crew place (and the one of which I like contributing) thinks that Higuain will get the space he needs for the Crew to pull this out 2:1 by the end.

----------

::MY PREDICTION::
I think that, real injury or not, Pontius being out actually helps DC a bit in that it makes them a new team to plan for. So much goes through him that it'll be interesting to see what DC United does tonight.

But it is another week and another 'should win' for the Crew. A loss at home to this DC team would be devastating and hard to spin off of for the club. In the previous two home games the Crew only have two points. Not great, at all but they can take that up to 5 pts in three tonight and right the ship, somewhat.

I like the Crew tonight but I have a great deal of hesitancy with that prediction. DC didn't do their homework last time they met earlier this year and came inches from a least a draw.

Whatever the result, it is beautiful here in Columbus today. Get out and watch the Crew instead of sitting in that cooped up hockey arena.

Thanks for reading, have a great weekend.

Predictions: Crew v. Fire

The Columbus Crew are in Chicago today to take on the Fire. 8:30 PM EST, 7:30 Central.

NOTES:
- Been 9 games since Crew won in Chicago. That's 2006.
- 5 Wins, 4 Drawn for the Fire in that time.
- Last year teams won home matches (2 at Bridgeview, 1 in Columbus)

PREDICTIONS

Bet365 is leaning Chicago on this one, which is a bit surprising when looking at form but not surprising when looking at history. 6/5 CHI Win (23/10 Draw, 9/4 Crew).

Adam Jardy, Dispatch beat writer, is leaning Crew. Leaning, as in he thinks they will win by citing the fact that the Crew have done well on the road this year. The Fire are down right now and Jardy thinks that if ever a time to win in Chicago; "...this would be it."

"I think the skill up front by the Crew is the difference," says Drew Epperley of WV Hooligan. His prediction? 2:1 Crew.

Not many votes over at Goal.com for this game but the few that voted think the Crew will win this one (75%).

And now the big dog, the usually correct Win Draw Win fan vote: A pretty easy win for the Crew? Looks like it. 48% pick Crew, 29% Draw with a large stake on 3:1 Away side.

MY THOUGHTS

Columbus has beaten Chivas USA and DC United on the road this year with a draw in Montreal and loss in Vancouver. Overall, that's good, especially this early in the season.

Chicago has been getting better but not entirely sure where goals might come from. I think they will need two to win this one. They also have held at home verses the Crew for whatever reason since 2006. That's pretty crazy, really. If I'm the Crew I mix up the travel up there. Something isn't working.

Tough one to call. History vs. Form. On last weeks Massive Report podcast I went with a 2:0 Crew win, so I'll stick with that.

An outright Crew loss would be disappointing.

Predictions: Crew v DC rd 4

Good Morning,

Crew are on the road today taking on DC United near my old stomping grounds and in one of the monuments of my youth, RFK Stadium. Game starts at 3:30 PM EST and is on the NBC Sports Network.

GAME NOTES
• Jario Arrieta is on international duty with Costa Rica, probably thawing out right now after last night's loss to the US in snowy Colorado.
• The status of Eddie Gaven isn't clear but would expect him to play.
• Would not expect Eddie to be 100%, he's only played 90 mins this year.
• So, DC hasn't lost at home in 19 games.
• DC posted most pts of any team at home last year with 40.
• Their goal diff at home was +20 last year.
• Without Arrieta, Crew will be starting new man up top. Dominic Oduro or Ryan Finley are options.

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PREDICTIONS

WV Hooligan Drew Epperley has DC pulling this one out noting the absence of Arrieta being key; "Dominic Oduro is no replacement in my book." Drew says it'll be 1:2 DC United.

The Reader Prediction section of Goal.com is very heavy DC win or Draw, combined 83% with a DC win 57.1%. Not the most reliable predictor, but should be considered in conjunction with other predictions.

The dudes and one lady on the MLSsoccer.com site PICK 'EM feature are all in on DC. 5 pick DC and one Draw. Leader of the pack over there is Matt Doyle right now with 42% (11 of 26) correct. Jason Saghini is low at 27% (7 of 26). Check out their site so you can keep up on what your kids are doing online.

On to Bet365. Big day here for Helltown, it's the first ever EVENS on this feature. DC has a 1/1 chance of a win, draw 23/10 and Crew win at 14/5.

WinDrawWin, the betting aggregate site, tells us this DC's game to lose. It reminds us of the Crew away form over last five of 2 W, 0 D, 5 L and the 10 GF and 13 against in those games. Loose. The very accurate predictor 'your vote' has DC at 42% chance of win with 37% picking draw (falling right around Goal.com's fan prediction).

Don't have the Dispatch at my door as of the time of this writing, will update with Adam Jardy's thoughts later today. UPDATE: Jardy thinks the key to a Crew win is the defense eliminating mental mistakes. He's not leaning either way.

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MY PREDICTION

I will have to go back and check my notes but not sure the Crew have played in a game predicted to be this one sided. I see this kind of stuff in the Premier League but not in MLS. Not even Toronto pulled evens against last year from what I observed.

DC has to lose at home at some point but don't see that happening here. Regular DC starter Dejan Jakovic will be out on Canada duty but it shouldn't hurt them too much. Marcos Sanchez is also out on international duty with Panama.

For the Crew to pull this one out it will take apathy or overconfidence on DC's side and a motivated starting group from Columbus.

It's possibly a good thing that Arrieta is away for this game. The unknown lineup might play in the Crew's favor in some ways. Personally I would like to see two players in front of Higuain but I see Columbus sticking with Viana and O'Rourke in DM roles (which is basically 6 in the back).

Crew have an opportunity to make some noise that's for certain. Should be a great game.

Predictions: Crew v SJ (Rd 3)

Good Morning,

Columbus plays host to the San Jose Earthquakes today and open their season at home. Game starts at 5:30 PM cold and damp Ohio time. 2:30 PM 'Quake time.

----------
GAME NOTES
• Some gamesmanship from Warzycha yesterday but looking like Eddie Gaven will sit this one out.
• SJ is without their two big men up top in Lenhart and Gordon (injuries).
• Crew's Meram seemed awfully excited this week, start is possible.
• Both clubs pulled 3 pts from first two games
• SJ played both at home, Crew both away
• Weather looks fine for mid-March in Ohio. Low 40s, damp.
• Perfect soccer weather DON GARBER.
----------

PREDICTIONS

Starting out with Mr. Drew Epperley today because he has been dead on with Crew predictions this year. He has the Crew winning this one 2:1... "could be a long trip home for the Quakes." He also mentions it as a trap for SJ. Not so sure they are that good right now to pull that word.

The rag tag bunch of Pick 'em mastery at MLSsoccer.com is going big with the Crew. Five(5) picks for a Crew win and one draw.

bet365 has the Crew favored at 13/10, 9/4 Draw, 21/10 SJ. Likely scorelines are standard, slight leaning towards low scoring.

Betting aggregate site Win Draw Win's trusty fan vote (when I say trusty, I mean oracle like accuracy) surprisingly has SJ confidently out front. 38% of the vote going their way, 33% Draw. Stake is on a 0:1 SJ win. The wiseguys smell something today. Will be interesting if that changes. Surprising.

Goal.com hasn't bothered with previewing this game yet (rest of games are done).

Still waiting on my Columbus Dispatch [UPDATED: Adam Jardy is confident the Crew can pull this one out if they can minimize mistakes].

MY THOUGHTS

Lots of excitement from the Crew supporter base for this game. GM Mark McCullers has been successful in hyping the crap out of this season (the last year on Robert Warzycha's contract) and has the fans all set with high expectations.

It's going to be cold and wet which may give the Crew some advantage but not much. Crew players haven't been in town much the past two months.

Frank Yallop and his goonie squad seem to always be up for anything. Them and their perfect damn weather and good 'call us team supplemental' attitudes.

Where was I? Oh. SJ will be a good team again this year but not sure they are there yet. I wouldn't be surprised if this one comes out even.

The only way this could turn out badly is because Columbus has made a lot of mistakes in front of goal this year (go back and watch the Chivas USA game). San Jose will feast off the Crew if that happens this evening. It's what made them the best team last year.

We'll see, should be a good match. Feels good to have soccer back in town.

Predictions: Crew v. SKC (Rd. 32)

Sporting Kansas City is in the Ohio capital tonight to take on the Columbus Crew. 4 PM EST. 1 PM out West.

GAME NOTES
• Danny O'Rourke serving a Card Suspension (Yellow Card accumulation)
• SKC has shut out last 4 opponents when playing away, yikes
• 3 Wins, 1 Draw in that time for SKC
• Crew home record is now unbeaten in last 7 (6 wins, 1 draw)
• Crew battling of last playoff spot, Win today will put them there
• SKC looking to keep pace for Supporters' Shield

PREDICTIONS
Drew Epperley, WV Hooligan: "The last team to beat SKC was this Crew side and I think they pull the upset again here as well." He's going 1:2 Crew win. Epperley is 40% accurate in picking Crew matches over last 15 games.

Aaron Katzeman at Massive Report doubles up on the 1:2 Crew win scoreline, but for spiritual reasons... "With a pre-match dedication to Kirk Urso at 3:15, Columbus will have the soccer gods on their side tomorrow afternoon." Aaron is correct 53% of the time.

Bet365 is calling it very close but slightly favors Crew (7/5) Draw (9/4) KC (19/10). Peter Coates betting site is 64% correct over last 15.

The fans at Goal.com and Massive Report are leaning Crew (noted).

The official site of MLS see's this a mixed Draw. 3 pick Draw, 2 Crew, 1 KC. Individually these guys pick wrong (nobody over 50% accurate), but used as a consensus and for Crew games only they are 60% right.

Going against the grain, the wiseguys theorize that KC will win this one (stake on 0:1 KC). The 67% accurate "your vote" section of WinDrawWin is going 48% KC, 29% Draw.

Adam Jardy, beat writer for the Columbus Crew at the Columbus Dispatch, is coy with his pick this week. Instead he opts for what the Crew need to do, and does it in a commanding Master Yoda voice; "An early Crew goal probably would the force the visitors to decide how much they want three points." It's not clear by the way it is written if the Crew have The Force or if SKC do.

What I am sure of is that I don't want "The Force" at this game at all. Does anybody still believe in that ancient religion? (*aannd, I'll just get my coat*)

MY THOUGHTS
The Crew have faced a team ranked in the top 5 nine times this year and have gone 4 wins, 1 draw, 4 loss. Not horrible and a record fitting a good mid-table team. However, the Crew haven't really had to face difficult teams lately. Other than Chicago in round 30, the last time was back in Round 20 (loss to DC).

Milovan Mirosevic didn't start any of the 4 wins and Federico Higuain has only played in one of these 9 matches against top 5 clubs (he played in the loss to Chicago). Danny O'Rouke absence is tough for me because I feel you need experienced MLS players against good teams.

Over the last 10 games Columbus has faced teams with an average rank of almost 13th on the table. Rounds 10-20? Opponents averaging 6th on the table.

To pull this off, the Crew are going to need both the soccer gods Katzeman speaks of and The Force that Jardy mentions.

Predictions: Crew vs. Union

The Philadelphia Union are in Columbus tonight to take on the Crew. Cool Fall temperatures and a beautiful midwestern sunset will provide the backdrop, 7:30 PM EST game start.

GAMESCRIBE
• PHI have drawn last 3 on the road (TFC, NER, DCU)
• Crew near perfect at home in last 10 (8 Wins, 1 Draw and Loss)
• PHI not mathematically eliminated from playoffs, but close
• Crew fighting to get back in, one spot out
• Crew: Have had some recent clubhouse problems

PREDICTIONS
The WinDrawWin "Your Vote" section has been surprisingly accurate since I started recording game predictions, so this week I'll put up the "Your Vote" favorites for the games that matter most to Crew fans:

CLB / PHI... 55% CLB WIN and 29% DRAW
HOU / NE... 68% HOU WIN and 24% DRAW
POR / DC... 25% DCU WIN and 48% DRAW

BET365 has the Crew taking this one 10/11 (fav), 12/5 Draw, 3/1 Union win. Noteable 11/2 odds on 1:1 Draw (13/2 on 1:0 Crew Win).

WV Hooligan thinks that "[the Union] just don’t have the answer to Columbus’ up front." Epperley calls it for the Crew, 2:1.

MLSsoccer.com goes mostly Crew. In fact, five of the employees picked them, one bit on Philly. It's been a while since these dudes have favored Columbus so much.

Adam Jardy, Columbus Dispatch (no link, paper subscription): "The past four Crew wins have come on goals in the 86th minute or later, but this is a game the club should sew up earlier."

NOT A DUMPSTER FIRE
Columbus needs this win but I'm going with a draw between these two. I don't like going with a boring X but I also don't like how Warzycha coached Crew teams fizzle out at the end of each year.

I'm pretty sure all of German Village heard a sigh last week after I heard about regular gameday players complaining about lineup choices. Regular starter Dilly Duka flat out just went home for a few days. And don't forget Will Hesmer's recent comments about the club deteriorating after the 2008 season and you may have some team watchers a little nervous.

It's by no means a dumpster fire but it is unnecessary noise at a critical time of the year.

Had it not been for a flying Eddie Gaven header against DC last year around this time of year the Crew wouldn't have made the playoffs. Maybe there is something like that in store for the Crew fans tonight.

Predictions: Crew v. Chivas

Chivas are in town tomorrow to take on the hometown Crew. Scheduled for a 7:00 PM EST, just a tad past magic hour.

GAME SCRIBBLES
• Chivas haven't won since the end of last month. 2 Wins, 2 Draws, 6 loses in last 10.
• Early in the season their defense was stout but pretty bad in last 10. LAG, NER, SEA, SJE have all tallied 3+ goals on them (SEA dropped 6).
• Crew have lost last two (both on the road)
• Crew have won last 3 at home but it has been against weak competition.
• Crew still struggling to keep a clean sheet. 0 in last 10.
• The Chivas coach, Robin Fraser, is suspended for this game.

PREDICTIONS
The Crew are favored and no mixed messages. 4/7 Bet365 home Crew win with the betters vote over at WinDrawWin seeing good play on Crew win, 56% (30% draw).

The "Pick 'Em" guys at MLSsoccer.com must be on vacation so I'll go with their last Power Ranking... Okay. Chivas is ranked 2nd to last and Crew 10th. Crew it is then from underpaid and over worked MLSsoccer writers.

I'm a little early for anything out of Drew Epperley (WV Hooligan), Adam Jardy (Columbus Dispatch subscription), Pitch Fest (Hudson Street Hooligans) or Aaron Katzeman but safe to say that they probably have Columbus coming out on top. Keep an eye on those sites for future matches though if you want a good feel for what will happen in the Crew's next match.

MY PREDICTION
This is one of those should win and have to win games that send shivers up my burnt sports fan spine. Objectively, Chivas is bad this year all round but the last month; horrid. Crew win, right?

What makes me nervous is that this game will be a little different for the Chivas Goats as assistant Greg Vanney will be at the helm, filling in for Robin Fraser. Vanney is a winner. Guys like him sometimes have enough to spur on even the worst teams. Couple that with the fact that Chivas leads the all time series with Columbus and hasn't lost in their last three to them and I get nervous.

That aside, the real winner tomorrow night will be the match itself. Fall is here in Columbus and soccer this time of year is magic to me. Give me a crisp 50 degrees and a beautiful sunset and I'll be the happiest man on the planet.

If you see a glowing object in the upper east stands during this game, that's me.

Predictions: KC v Crew

The Crew are down in KC tonight to take on Sporting. Games Starts 8:30 PM EST, 7:30 PM Central, and 9:30 PM local time in Buenos Aries, Argentina.

GAME NOTES
• Crew just played KC a couple weeks ago at home and lost.
• Unconfirmed report: Milovan Mirosevic and Danny O'Rourke didn't make the trip for Columbus
• KC missing big names this week: Aurélien Collin (face factures), Roger Espinoza (Olympics), and Chance Myers (groin).
• Crew club disruption due to new high profile signing (Fredrico Higuain) last night.

PREDICTIONS

365bet.com knew something others didn't last week (odds on Crew win) so we'll start with them. Leaning heavily towards a KC win. Looking like 1:0 or 2:0 for Sporting. Normal likelihood odds of draw in MLS (11/4).

Drew Epperley at WV Hooligan has it as a 1:0 KC win. "Columbus will keep this one tight but I don’t like their chances on the road," says Mr. Epperley.

Goal.com game preview scribe Zac Lee Rigg isn't calling the game and not enough voting on the fan vote to call this one anything other than close.

"Kansas City's quality in attack will give them a victory in front of a big home crowd." - Aaron Katzeman, Massive Report game preview. There is some optimism in the fan poll this week, but not enough votes to clearly call it.

WinDrawWin is gushing with Sporting! 56% chance of win for KC. Highest I've seen this year.

On top of covering the Higuain signing, Adam Jardy takes the time to peer into the crystal ball enough to call this one a Draw. He says it'll happen "if the Crew can eliminate the mistakes that hindered" the Crew last time out against KC.

Side note... buy the Dispatch paper, the website is atrocious. Michael Arace has a good piece on Higuain in today's paper as well.

MY THOUGHTS and PREDICTION

Looks like this one is leaning greatly towards KC. I'm not sold.

KC is a very stout club this year. Only 21 players have seen MLS league minutes for them (best in the league) compared to 26 for Columbus (25 is league median). The reason I mention this is because, well...

Stability: teams with concrete starting lineups and healthy players win in this league. Sporting, RSL, Chicago, Houston all keep the number of guys seeing minutes down (less than 23) and are near the top of the table.

Unstable teams (teams that wrongly throw people at a problem, ie. losing): Montreal, Philly, Portland, Dallas (all have had 27+ players see MLS minutes).

Columbus falls slightly on the poor side of stable. Staying healthy isn't by luck. It's through proper training and having the right trainers, physicians and doctors (available or on staff). I despise the phrase "caught the injury bug". I also despise the fact that Columbus has chosen the wrong time to get experimental with their lineups even when enough players are available to back fill positions.

The lineup experimentation Warzycha and Co. has created a degree of instability with this year's club. You can see that in the game to game level of play. For example: their level of play two weeks ago vs. KC wasn't poor but the lineup change directly lead to both the loss (2 goals off mistakes) and to injury (Benardo Anor and almost Josh Williams).

Were this anywhere but in KC, I would expect a draw or Crew win because KC are missing three of their key cogs. But that wishful thinking and doesn't get us anywhere. Just like I wish Columbus would make a impactful signing instead of one with too many questions as to the quality of player.

As it is, this game is at home for KC. Blue Hell, as they say. I expect a handcuffed Crew and a KC win. Going to take some individual Crew brilliance to, at the very least, pull this one up to a draw.

Justin Meram has been close and his confidence is returning. Eddie Gaven is in form. Emilio Renteria has looked great playing out wide in a Reserve match and against Stoke. Are Aaron Horton and/or Ben Speas going to get a chance to be special again?

Whose it going to be?

Predictions: Crew v. Sporting KC

The Columbus Crew host KC tonight at 730 PM. Forecasters are calling for rain off and on today and temps will be in the mid- to low 70s (in other words, excellent conditions).

GAME NOTES:
• Both clubs are defensive minded and have top MLS goalkeepers in Andy Gruenebuam and Jimmy Nielsen.
• Offensively, KC are middle of the pack (1.28 GF p/GM) while Columbus is more towards the bottom.
• It appears that Crew stadium just about sold out tonight. Crew Stadium is a fortress when large crowds are on hand.

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We'll start with the places that have been most accurate with the Crew over the past couple matches:

365bet.com has the Crew favored to win 13/10 odds. A 0:1 Crew result has 6/1 odds. Last week it correctly favored Montreal.

The fan predictor over all Goal.com was dead on the score last week. This week I see the fan prediction as a 1:0 Crew win.

Now for the others:

Staying on the same Goal.com page, Keith Hickey, has the KC winning easily at 2:0.

The fan vote at windrawwin.com (don't go there) has KC coming out on top.

The dudes over at MLSsoccer.com see it as a Draw (4 picks of 6). Matt Doyle, Armchair Analyst picks the Crew to win.

Drew Epperley over at WV Hooligan has this one down as a Crew win but for all the wrong reasons: "I do see this as a slight trap game for Sporting," he says. Not sure the Crew are bad enough to be considered as a "trap team" but, whatever.

WHAT METHINKS:
Last week I called for a messy game if Marshall, Mirosevic and Jario Arrieta saw time. As it turned out Arrieta didn't see time (because of administrative failures, not due to fitness). It still featured the other two and it contributed to a poor outing for the Crew.

This week looks to feature Marshall and Arrieta but no Mirosevic. Again, makes for disjointedness if Arrieta starts. However, reports are saying the talisman Danny O'Rourke may be back in the starting XI for the Crew. If so, I would expect a Crew win or Draw regardless of what the Crew do with Arrieta.

I've written about what Danny adds to the team before (by the numbers).

There are also some signs that Justin Meram will get the nod today. If so, that bodes well for the Crew. What Warzycha did (sitting him) when he was in the midst of a three goals in three games streak last month was completely unexceptionable and borderline incompetent.

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Bonus thoughts here come from our friendly neighborhood masked Crewsader, beat writer Adam Jardy; "Warzycha has been toying with his back four this week, which could pose problems defending," he says. Jardy mentions Benardo Anor at left back (over Vukovic) and Josh Williams over Sebastian Miranda at right.

If it's true that Warzycha is looking to blow up his back line it could be a long night for Columbus.

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[UPDATED - ACTUAL RESULT]
CREW 0 : 2 KC