Saturday, March 23, 2013

Predictions: Crew v DC rd 4

Good Morning,

Crew are on the road today taking on DC United near my old stomping grounds and in one of the monuments of my youth, RFK Stadium. Game starts at 3:30 PM EST and is on the NBC Sports Network.

• Jario Arrieta is on international duty with Costa Rica, probably thawing out right now after last night's loss to the US in snowy Colorado.
• The status of Eddie Gaven isn't clear but would expect him to play.
• Would not expect Eddie to be 100%, he's only played 90 mins this year.
• So, DC hasn't lost at home in 19 games.
• DC posted most pts of any team at home last year with 40.
• Their goal diff at home was +20 last year.
• Without Arrieta, Crew will be starting new man up top. Dominic Oduro or Ryan Finley are options.


WV Hooligan Drew Epperley has DC pulling this one out noting the absence of Arrieta being key; "Dominic Oduro is no replacement in my book." Drew says it'll be 1:2 DC United.

The Reader Prediction section of is very heavy DC win or Draw, combined 83% with a DC win 57.1%. Not the most reliable predictor, but should be considered in conjunction with other predictions.

The dudes and one lady on the site PICK 'EM feature are all in on DC. 5 pick DC and one Draw. Leader of the pack over there is Matt Doyle right now with 42% (11 of 26) correct. Jason Saghini is low at 27% (7 of 26). Check out their site so you can keep up on what your kids are doing online.

On to Bet365. Big day here for Helltown, it's the first ever EVENS on this feature. DC has a 1/1 chance of a win, draw 23/10 and Crew win at 14/5.

WinDrawWin, the betting aggregate site, tells us this DC's game to lose. It reminds us of the Crew away form over last five of 2 W, 0 D, 5 L and the 10 GF and 13 against in those games. Loose. The very accurate predictor 'your vote' has DC at 42% chance of win with 37% picking draw (falling right around's fan prediction).

Don't have the Dispatch at my door as of the time of this writing, will update with Adam Jardy's thoughts later today. UPDATE: Jardy thinks the key to a Crew win is the defense eliminating mental mistakes. He's not leaning either way.


I will have to go back and check my notes but not sure the Crew have played in a game predicted to be this one sided. I see this kind of stuff in the Premier League but not in MLS. Not even Toronto pulled evens against last year from what I observed.

DC has to lose at home at some point but don't see that happening here. Regular DC starter Dejan Jakovic will be out on Canada duty but it shouldn't hurt them too much. Marcos Sanchez is also out on international duty with Panama.

For the Crew to pull this one out it will take apathy or overconfidence on DC's side and a motivated starting group from Columbus.

It's possibly a good thing that Arrieta is away for this game. The unknown lineup might play in the Crew's favor in some ways. Personally I would like to see two players in front of Higuain but I see Columbus sticking with Viana and O'Rourke in DM roles (which is basically 6 in the back).

Crew have an opportunity to make some noise that's for certain. Should be a great game.

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