Higuain Out (They Paved Paradise)

News out of wherever says Federico Higuain underwent sports hernia surgery this week. He'll be out for for a couple months. Another big hit for Columbus, along side the longer term Gaston Sauro injury. There are a host of other injuries for the Crew, but none more important.

The team was going nowhere before this latest blow, but the changes will bring in some much needed new faces. Of course, the playoffs are still in play (and a US Open Cup run, that I hope they go for), but don't expect anything but a herky-jerky summer. That's okay though. Just like old times.

Here's to hoping we get Higuain back and better than ever, soon. Sometimes you don't know what you got till it's gone.

Bottled Up, Follow Up + Min Max Cap

Working on a new post for Massive Report that discusses the capacity of this year's Columbus Crew team. Digging back I am going over a lot of Higuain's production and performance. I've been writing about his role on the Crew since he started and dug pretty far into it over at Massive Report about a month ago. There were early signs last year that he had been figured out and the Crew, as of yet, have not adjusted.

Going to explore 'capacity' (min /max /expected) more tonight but wanted to get a link up to my Bottled Up, Higuain post and the artwork that went with it here at Helltown.

The Crew Forward Market

Now that I've looked at Crew Defenders and Midfielders, it's time to take a look at the Crew's attacking group. Just as in the last post I'm going to touch on which players are a hit and which are a miss in regards to contract.

You'd figure that writing about the Forward position might be the most exciting, but it really isn't. Why this is probably has a lot to do with the Columbus Crew switching to a single forward attack over the two that they preferred all of last year and at the start of this year.

The rise of the 4-2-3-1 as Robert Warzycha's primary formation comes from the lack of any target man. The injury to Tommy Heinemann, impatience with Olman Vargas and generally 'rookie-ness' of Aaron Schoenfeld almost forced the oh so mighty hand of Warzycha to go with what was his secondary formation (the: 4-2-3-1) last year.

Since that formation change - the club rode the Jairo Arrieta train from summer on. What that means is that there isn't a whole lot to hang our hats on here at the "forward" position. All is not lost though. How about we look at it from a "attacking" position perspective.

CONTRACT HITS BASED ON VALUE

Federico Higuain
Value: $195k, Contract: $162k
Notes: Contract was cut in half to adjust for MLS rules regarding players starting half way through the season.

Emilio Renteria
Value: $163k, Contract: $134k
Notes: Renteria's Goal p90 rate tanked this year but most of that was due to the change in his role. Renteria took his positional change really well and actually earned three assists.

Jairo Arrieta
Value: $134k, Contract: $113k
Notes: Arrieta is another contract I cut in half due to MLS rules on players coming in halfway through the season.

CONTRACT MISS BASED ON VALUE

Olman Vargas (released)
Value: $79k, Contract: $175k
Notes: Olman contract option was not picked up by the Crew.

...AND ON VARGAS

Turns out that even my modest predictions for him back in February were too lofty. I predicted 3-5 goals, no assists and 1200 minutes of playing time with a scoring rate of 0.12. Turns out I was dead on the scoring rate. In MLS he got 0.13 but only half the 1200 minutes I foresaw. Also, he registered 0 (nowt) assists, just as I thought (mu-hahaha).

On other thing I tried to predict was his salary. I called it at $140k. Turns out it was slightly higher; $175k. What's frustrating to me is that armed with only public information I was able to predict what this player would do and the salary he would make.

Vargas was the only real loss the Crew took at the forward position. In fact, the forward position was the only group that was in the black.

It's surprising to me is that for all the fan discontent with the Crew attacking capabilities the players classified by Stats, Inc as Forwards actually did very well (in terms of value). Much better, in fact, then both Defenders and Midfielders.

-$196k: DEFENDERS
-$186k: MIDFIELD
+$127k: FORWARDS

THE UNDERPAID FORWARDS

Justin Meram and Aaron Schoenfeld are underpaid when comparing what they did to the rest of Major League Soccer. I value Meram at $169k and Schoenfeld at $80k. Both are clear values based on 2012 production. The earned well above their current salaries.

2013 SNEAK PEEK

Robert Warzycha will ride Higuain and Arrieta till the wheels come off. Problem will be - the wheels will inevitably come off. You can't win in this league with just one playmaker and one opportunistic forward. Banking an entire season on that combo is league table suicide. Aaron Schoenfeld and Tommy Heinemann will have to play a role in order for this team to make some noise in 2013. Look at the best teams in this league. Hell. Any league.

Simply put: You cannot survive on a poacher (Arrieta) and an advanced playmaking forward (Higuain) to create all your goals over a 34+ match season.

THE LAST TWO

Of the players that saw time, Ethan Finlay and Ben Speas are the only other players I haven't talked about. I like both of them. It appears that they will be spending time in unnatural spots. Speas seems to be destine for the Left Mid spot and Finlay? Anywhere else under King Warzycha. I like him anywhere that allows him to run.

Crew Round 25, The Will in Williams

Eddie Gaven puts away the Philadelphia Union in the 95th minute off some good play from Federico Higuain and Justin Meram... but it all wouldn't have happened were it not for a couple sparks provided by Josh Williams in the middle of an otherwise flat game. Those sparks came in the form of a fearless header for goal in the 31st min off a Higuain free kick and then a Red in the 68th. Those events were much needed in a match that the Union were otherwise trying to kill.

Crew Round 23, Crew Win (TFC)

Columbus comfortably holds off Toronto for all 90 minutes and comes away with the 2:1 win.

1ST HALF
Columbus looked the hungrier of the two sides at the start and just 4 minutes in was able to get defensive deflection which enabled an Eddie Gaven shot to angle past a frozen TFC GK Freddie Hall.

Interestingly, the goal didn't change the mentality of either side. Crew kept up the sharp pressure and finding plenty of gaps in the midfield and Toronto looked game to absorb and build possession.

2ND HALF
The script didn't change much from the 1st half and the Crew were rewarded at the 58th minute off some hustle play from Eddie Gaven, Jairo Arrieta and Frederico Higuain. The goal was the first for Higuain in a Crew uniform.

From there the Crew dropped back and essentially abandoned possession. It wouldn't be unfair to call the game flat after the second goal. Out of that and around the 70th minute TFC's Luis Silva took advantage of a sleeping pair of Crew defenders off a free kick to score one back.

From there Crew Coach Warzycha brought in a trio of defensive subs to wrap the game up.

THE END, NOTES
• First off, I gotta say, very cool to see both Cole Grossman and Danny O'Rourke come on at the same time. I've got a big ol' grin on my face because I just wrote about those two playing together the other day.

• Federico Higuain is off to a great start in his first 135 121 minutes. He and Arrieta look like they will be absolute pests to opposing back lines.

• With Higuain, Eddie Gaven has looked like the player we all know he is. Over the past few years the quality has always been there but it looked like it took extreme effort... but now with a couple players up top who can cover a lot of ground with him... man o man, watch out.

• I thought Emilio Renteria looked pretty good running up and down the right side as, basically, a wing man.

• I wasn't impressed with Milovan Mirosevic and Chris Birchall wasn't blowing anyone's hair back. A win is a win.

• Toronto played much of the match like they weren't in the mood, organized but definitely a not tonight honey kinda evening. No pancakes for them, I guess.

• Would have liked the Crew to bury this poor TFC side. Columbus did exactly what they needed to this game, though. 3 points at home and get the PR regulars to beat that free drum for the new expensive signing.

• Looking forward to this weekends match against another below average side in the NE Revs.