The Crew Forward Market

Now that I've looked at Crew Defenders and Midfielders, it's time to take a look at the Crew's attacking group. Just as in the last post I'm going to touch on which players are a hit and which are a miss in regards to contract.

You'd figure that writing about the Forward position might be the most exciting, but it really isn't. Why this is probably has a lot to do with the Columbus Crew switching to a single forward attack over the two that they preferred all of last year and at the start of this year.

The rise of the 4-2-3-1 as Robert Warzycha's primary formation comes from the lack of any target man. The injury to Tommy Heinemann, impatience with Olman Vargas and generally 'rookie-ness' of Aaron Schoenfeld almost forced the oh so mighty hand of Warzycha to go with what was his secondary formation (the: 4-2-3-1) last year.

Since that formation change - the club rode the Jairo Arrieta train from summer on. What that means is that there isn't a whole lot to hang our hats on here at the "forward" position. All is not lost though. How about we look at it from a "attacking" position perspective.

CONTRACT HITS BASED ON VALUE

Federico Higuain
Value: $195k, Contract: $162k
Notes: Contract was cut in half to adjust for MLS rules regarding players starting half way through the season.

Emilio Renteria
Value: $163k, Contract: $134k
Notes: Renteria's Goal p90 rate tanked this year but most of that was due to the change in his role. Renteria took his positional change really well and actually earned three assists.

Jairo Arrieta
Value: $134k, Contract: $113k
Notes: Arrieta is another contract I cut in half due to MLS rules on players coming in halfway through the season.

CONTRACT MISS BASED ON VALUE

Olman Vargas (released)
Value: $79k, Contract: $175k
Notes: Olman contract option was not picked up by the Crew.

...AND ON VARGAS

Turns out that even my modest predictions for him back in February were too lofty. I predicted 3-5 goals, no assists and 1200 minutes of playing time with a scoring rate of 0.12. Turns out I was dead on the scoring rate. In MLS he got 0.13 but only half the 1200 minutes I foresaw. Also, he registered 0 (nowt) assists, just as I thought (mu-hahaha).

On other thing I tried to predict was his salary. I called it at $140k. Turns out it was slightly higher; $175k. What's frustrating to me is that armed with only public information I was able to predict what this player would do and the salary he would make.

Vargas was the only real loss the Crew took at the forward position. In fact, the forward position was the only group that was in the black.

It's surprising to me is that for all the fan discontent with the Crew attacking capabilities the players classified by Stats, Inc as Forwards actually did very well (in terms of value). Much better, in fact, then both Defenders and Midfielders.

-$196k: DEFENDERS
-$186k: MIDFIELD
+$127k: FORWARDS

THE UNDERPAID FORWARDS

Justin Meram and Aaron Schoenfeld are underpaid when comparing what they did to the rest of Major League Soccer. I value Meram at $169k and Schoenfeld at $80k. Both are clear values based on 2012 production. The earned well above their current salaries.

2013 SNEAK PEEK

Robert Warzycha will ride Higuain and Arrieta till the wheels come off. Problem will be - the wheels will inevitably come off. You can't win in this league with just one playmaker and one opportunistic forward. Banking an entire season on that combo is league table suicide. Aaron Schoenfeld and Tommy Heinemann will have to play a role in order for this team to make some noise in 2013. Look at the best teams in this league. Hell. Any league.

Simply put: You cannot survive on a poacher (Arrieta) and an advanced playmaking forward (Higuain) to create all your goals over a 34+ match season.

THE LAST TWO

Of the players that saw time, Ethan Finlay and Ben Speas are the only other players I haven't talked about. I like both of them. It appears that they will be spending time in unnatural spots. Speas seems to be destine for the Left Mid spot and Finlay? Anywhere else under King Warzycha. I like him anywhere that allows him to run.

Crew Drop Three, Grossman to RSL

Olman Vargas, Nemanja Vukovic and Cole Grossman have been dropped.

From TheCrew.com: "All three players are not eligible for the MLS Re-entry Process and will be placed on the MLS Waiver wire, with the MLS Waiver Draft taking place at 3:30 p.m. ET this afternoon."

A COUPLE THINGS on that STATEMENT

1. Grossman was the only player picked from the 43 dropped for today's "Waiver Draft". Real Salt Lake nabbed him, wisely.

2. The Re-entry Process" is a tricky animal as MLS over-engineers player draft rules everything. My understanding is that Vargas and Vukovic are dangling out there once their 2012 contract officially ends at the end of the calendar year. Both are quality players

NICHOLAS HOLLAND "Cole" GROSSMAN

I've written a lot about Cole here at Helltown over the course of the 2012 season, with emphasis since the end of the Crew season when doing player evaluations. The reason for this is because his metrics were notably good in the short time he played.

Real Salt Lake was smart to pick him up.

For me? He's a $44k a year player who was put into impossible positions when called upon this year. He started against Seattle, DC United, Sporting KC, LA, and Houston and never lost a match with 8 goals for and only 4 against. If you didn't notice; Those are the best teams in the league.

His counterpart, Milovan Mirosevic? He didn't win a single game against a team ranked 1-9 on the table when starting. NOT A SINGLE ONE. 0 Wins, 4 Draws, 5 Losses. 10 Goals For, 16 Against. A main contributer to the club missing the 2012 playoffs was Mirosevic's presence on the pitch when playing better competition.

Let's take a second to break down some of the incompetence that Grossman mentions in his Facebook post today.

Below is a record of the Crew's results when Mirosevic was a starter against better competition:

Round 4: NY. LOSS
Round 6: HOU. DRAW
Round 10: SJ DRAW
Round 20: DC. LOSS
Round 21: LA. DRAW

You would think that during this part of the season the club would have noticed a trend. Why? Because by week 22 Grossman had 3 wins in 5 starts vs top teams to Mirosevics 0 in 5.

The team didn't take notice and started Mirosevic in critical late year matches. He ended up starting in 4, losing 3.

Round 28: NY. LOSS
Round 30: CHI. LOSS
Round 32: SKC. DRAW
Round 33: DC. LOSS

At one of the most important positions on a Robert Warzycha coached team (Defensive Mid-Fielder)... Why would Mirosevic, a player who clearly struggled against better players early on, get time late in the year against quality clubs?

I'm sorry, but it doesn't take a Duke University graduate to figure this one out. A trend is a trend. It should have been sorted. The Crew reacted quickly with Olman Vargas by pulling him early in the season (didn't start after week 10, no wins against top half talent), why not Mirosevic?

GROSSMAN IN A BETTER SITUATION

RSL is ranked 3rd in over all record over the last 4 years. While it's true that Columbus is 4th in that time, RSL still clocks in at 4th over the last two years. Columbus has tumbled to 9th.

Grossman is going to a better run MLS franchise. The fact that they picked a player like him is a testament to how they measure performance and why they are consistently better than Columbus and the other 15 clubs in the league below them.

AFFINITY DIAGRAM TIME

I ventured in to the ever increasing dark forest that is Facebook and found that common fans are upset about Vukovic getting dropped. Longer written posts reason out in favor of keeping Cole and there is general indifference to Vargas.

PLAYER VALUE

I rate every player. I also keep track of every player's salary. If I take the 10 players above and below an individual on my rating scale I can summize general value (or "HB Market Value" if I may. If you will).

Nemanja Vukovic: $125,500
HB Market Value: $75,000
Difference: -($50,500)

Olman Vargas: $175,000
HB Market Value: $93,300
Difference: -($81,700)

Cole Grossman: $44,100
HB Market Value: $65,000
Difference: +$20,9000

Both Vukovic and Vargas are overpaid. Cole is underpaid by a significant percentage. By picking him up in the MLS Waiver Draft RSL is getting a value.

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The Columbus Crew let go of $344,600 today.

The total HB Market Value of these players: $233,300.

Aggregate salary dropped today, by club.

$756,255 : NYR : 9
$463,790 : PHI : 3
$413,256 : SKC : 4

$344,600 : CREW : 3

$292,514 : FCD : 5
$208,502 : COL : 2
$185,600 : TFC : 4
$155,000 : VAN : 3
$149,372 : NER : 4
$111,500 : POR : 3
$103,333 : SJE : 1
$35,750 : RSL : 1
$33,750 : MON : 1

RSL picked up Cole's $44,100 salary, so call it even for them.

Of the 43 dropped today I recommend the following players (other than Cole):

B. Brettschneider: $33,756
HB Market Value: 105,950
Difference: +$72,194

C. Rodriguez: $64,383
HB Market Value: $90,750
Difference: +$26,367

Crew Rd 15, Win Storm (RSL)

Something called a "super derecho" tore across Central Ohio on Friday night leaving over half a million without power on a hot and humid 90 degree night.

Among those without power Friday night:

1. The hotel where Real Salt Lake was staying.
2. Me.

Among those with power Friday night:

1. Kyle Beckerman (didn't travel due to card accumulation)
2. Not me.

By the next day, like most in the Central Ohio area, Crew Stadium was still without power but the local electric company was able to get things up and running and the match was only delayed by 1 hour.

The Crew went on to win this game 2:0.

1ST HALF
Columbus seemingly ambushed RSL right from the first whistle. I was sitting low and on the north end so had a good view of the Crew Defensive line of Nemanja Vukovic, Josh Williams, Julius James and Sebastian Miranda and the RSL attack of... which included nobody. Columbus was rarely threatened.

Emilio Renteria seemed to have a speed advantage against the RSL backline (playing too high for a group that got no sleep) and he took it. In the 16' minute Renteria took off on a run down the right side and played a quick low ball across the mouth of goal that found Tony Tchani for a goal. Thirty minutes later Eddie Gaven finished a similar cross in from Josh Williams from a corner by Chris Birchall. It was the 44th minute to be exact. A time when tired teams give up goals.

2ND HALF
I moved to a better vantage point so I could see the full pitch but not a whole lot happened offensively. Columbus did stay positive and probably deserved another goal. RSL looked slightly more dangerous but generated nothing near good enough to beat Andy Gruenebaum.

THE END, NOTES
• Josh Williams completely frustrated one of the best players in the league in Fabian Espindola (6 goals, 3 assists on the year). He pushed him, tackled him, talked at him. Eventually Espindola was shown yellow and had to be subbed. Excellent performance by Williams.

• Danny O'Rourke... not many mentions of him for Man of the Match but he put in his best game of the year. Without Beckerman to counter him Danny controlled the middle and snuffed out just about every build up RSL tried to muster. I'm not sure I've seen a more dominate central defending performance this year from any player. CDM is such a key spot for what the Crew does. They need O'Rourke to stay healthy.

• Hard to find any week spots for the Crew after this one. Aaron Shoenfeld was pretty ineffective and tired easily, I suppose. It’s also important to note that he started over a healthy and higher paid Olman Vargas.

VANTAGE POINT + MAN MANAGEMENT:
When it came time for subs and Milovan Mirosevic came on I took note of a warming up but visibly frustrated Justin Meram and Olman Vargas. Once Kevan George came on it got a little more awkward as Vargas dropped his head and Meram started kicking plastic practice cones while getting encouragement from Eric Gehrig. Meram eventually came on for Renteria but only due to Renteria’s insistence on coming out. After the game Adam Jardy of the Columbus Dispatch noted that Reneria did not stick around for the postgame.

Not trying to turn this club into a soap opera but I manage a group of folks that balloons up past 100 often so I can’t help but notice attitudes in a work place and how employees react to change (Kevan sub being the change in this case).

A STORM COMING
A storm in the form of Chad Marshall returning to his assigned spot next to Julius James which, in turn, leaves Josh Williams out. A very popular, ticket selling / featured on the inside of the program, Josh Williams. Never underestimate the drawing power of an Ohioan on the team… especially talented one from NE Ohio.

Hopefully my power comes back on so I can tease apart the numbers on the Crew’s upcoming Center Back controversy competition.

Exhibition Saturday

Columbus played two Exhibitions yesterday. In the first, the starting team beat Michigan State 5-1. The second saw Crew backups and Reserves beat West Virginia University 1-0.


Mirosevic scored off two set pieces from similar placements on the pitch (atop the 18 yd. box). Olman Vargas was in the scoring mood as well, scoring two off crosses during open play. One high from Shaun Francis that he headed in. The other was a low searching ball from Miranda in the box that Olman, facing the cross, deftly let roll slightly past his planted left foot then flicked it in with his right behind his left heal from a few yards out. Kirk Urso fired one from 20+ yards late to take the days tally up to 5 goals.

It was exciting to see clear Crew roles and responsibilities against Michigan St.

Kirk Usro was responsible for defensive support from the MF. Mirosevic played box to box. Finlay and Gaven ran the wings. It widened the play well. It'll be interesting to see if the Crew can dictate this shape to opponents in the coming weeks.

In the Back, the pairing of Eric Gehrig and Chad Marshall anchored and worked well with Miranda and Francis out wide. Decent workout from MSU forwards, only a late one got by.

Up front, Vargas looked much more comfortable with Renteria holding things up and working the MSU backline. Renteria ran the MSU players ragged. Literally. So much so that one MSU player just sort of crumpled to the ground around ~40 min. Warzycha yelled "half!" and the ref blew his whistle. Warzycha the merciful.



The 2nd game saw Crew backups and Reserves taking on (what looked to be) a pretty good WVU team. The match started well as Justin Meram and Finlay (both had playing time in each game) worked decently with Cole Grossman and Tony Tchani in the middle.

Trialist Aaron Schoenfeld again got matched up with Heinemann up top. Schoenfeld is chasing the game and isn't finding the right spots yet.

A recovering Meram and an out of gas Finlay provided some attacking pressure and positive play in the first half but the game was disjointed. Aaron Horton was subbed in late in the second half and put a nice shot in from the left side. Tchani provided the assist.

Interesting to see Tchani playing backup to Urso. At this point it is fair to say that the hardworking Urso has earned that spot. No Danny O'Rourke in either game but it may play out that the CDM depth is: Urso -> O'Rourke -> Tchani (if O'Rourke gets all healed up). That's an expensive Reserve Team player.

Important note: Urso plays an O'Rourkian style football.

Beautiful day at Columbus Crew Stadium.

1st Cap for Olman Vargas

Just read that Vargas has been called up to the Costa Rican National Team. Appears to be his first call up. World Cup qualifying begins later this year.

The international calendar looks to line up for the World Cup qualifiers so the Columbus Crew players getting semi-regular time for their national team will have busy years along side Vargas.

Those Crew players:

Olman now with Costa Rica, Trinidad and Tobago with Julius James and (possibly) Kevan George, Venezuela has Emilio Rentería, and Jamaica's own Shaun Francis.

Those WC Qualifying dates:

Friday, June 08, 2012
Tuesday, June 12, 2012
Friday, September 07, 2012
Tuesday, September 11, 2012
Friday, October 12, 2012
Tuesday, October 16, 2012

Most national teams have four more friendlies in front of the Qualifiers.

Reminder that the Olympics are this summer, as well. Those teams will be filled with mostly under 23's.

2012 Major League Soccer (change your calender) will have a "herky jerky" feel to it, to be sure (change your calender).

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Picture above is of Laura Chinchilla, President of Costa Rica (and Georgetown grad) holding a Spain Jersey when they visited late last year. Learned me a little Central American politics today. Goodness.

Olman Vargas Deep Dive

1st year Crew player Olman Vargas will find the back of the net 3 - 5 times this year. I'd like to see an assist or two out of him, but that's not his game. His contract? Likely in the $140k range. Average for a Costa Rican MLS player that will run around the pitch for about 1200 minutes this year. When it's all said and done on the 2012 season I will have rated him between 40 and 60 (out of 100).

Off and on over the past couple days I've taken some time to look at not only Olman Vargas, but the whole of the Costa Rican Primera Division and all other Costa Rican players currently playing in MLS. whew.

There are a handful of Costa Rican's playing in the league right now. Nine, to be exact. Most notable are Álvaro Saborío, Roy Miller, Gonzalo Segares and Leo Gonzalez. Saborío netted 11 goals last year for RSL and Segares returned to the Fire to fortify a strong back line.

Out of the nine Costa Rican players in the league only one (Saborío) is an attacking player. And, boy is he. He lit up the Costa Rican League for 5 years. 2003 to 2005 were particularly remarkable 52 goals in 73 appearances. That puts him around the 0.60 Goals per/GM rate. AKA: The Special Rate. Hit 0.50 in any league and you are tops. In MLS he is still at 0.40 (11 goals last year). On the international stage? 0.30. Excellent for this region. The guy is a goal scorer, plain and simple.

On to Olman... just one other Costa Rican forward in MLS isn't enough to go on, but it does give me a starting point. Why look at Mr. Vargas, though? Well, the ground swell of excitement when he was signed recently has leveled out. He entered camp with a slight injury and has only scored one goal in plenty of pre-season runabouts. In otherwords; he has just become a giant question mark.

Digging in a bit.

Olman's goal scoring rate for Costa Rican side Herediano over the past 44 games is 0.39. Impressive. A noteworthy rate. I took it a step further though. Strip out his domestic (PRD) league rate and you get a goal scoring rate of 0.12. A drastic drop when against quality competition.

Why the drop in goals?

Vargas has played in a significant amount of CONCACAF Champions League games. 761 minutes worth, to be exact. 8.5, 90 minute spells (let's just call it 9 games). In that time he has only scored once. In a 8-0 hammering against Alpha United of little ol' Guyana.

As early as last year he has faced the Seattle Sounders and Monterrey (twice each). Good as time as any to score goals, but nowt. He also played some minutes against the Crew in 2009. No goals then but played only as a sub.

Worth remembering: The Crew were the first US based team to beat any team south of Texas in the CCL. It just so happened to be against Olman's Saprissa team on July 16th, 2009.

Lots of expectation for Vargas this year. The next month should tell us a lot. He is sure to see plenty of time in Charleston. Looking forward to seeing him next weekend in person.

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Olman Vargas CCL Mins, Goals and Assists LINK.

Vargas Domestic (PRD) stats LINK.

If you want a list of all Costa Rican players abroad, LINK.

Watch Herediano float ball after ball into the box looking for Vargas last year against Seattle. LINK.

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Couple last notes here: Warzycha's buddy, Philly Union coach Nowak, has also taken a chance on a player very similar to Vargas in Josué Martinez (Costa Rica). Interesting how that works out, eh? We'll see who performs better.

Looking at Olman's game progression you can see that if he starts to drift and not score goals his coach would bench him. In the couple times that happened, Vargas responded well.

Hold up. Two Goal Scorers Sign with Crew?

Columbus is coming through on promises to sign attacking threats. Both of the players signed today are dangermen. They even have similar goal scoring records over the past two years in their respective leagues.

Milovan Petar Mirosevic Albornoz has signed with the Columbus Crew. Milovan Mirosevic. Or "Milo", as Warzycha is already calling him.

31 years old, Milovan appears to be an attacking mid in the Chile Primera División. No doubt that Miranda had a hand in this signing. Milovan is coming over from Univ. Católica where he has put in 1735 minutes this year and is scoring at a 0.36 p/GM rate. Last year, same team / league he was scoring at an astonishing 0.62 p/GM. From the looks of it he seems to be a enthusiastic player and is involved a lot.

Some questions have to be asked about his last knee injury, though. Sell, sell, sell(?).

Next up is 26 year old Olman Vargas López. Olman comes to the Crew from the Costa Rican team Herediano. He is listed as an attacking forward. His rate is in the 0.51 range over the past two seasons (37 games played).

No information on their contracts, yet. But I think both of them are high quality signings. Looks like a good bit of miles on Milovan's legs but at 31 and in a new league... I can see him becoming a dangerous threat. Vargas has the looks to be a star, for sure. From the little bit I've pulled from players coming from a league like his to MLS, it does look good (from a numbers standpoint).

Not making predictions yet, but a 0.50 goals per game in a league like the Costa Rican top division hopefully translates into a 0.30 type scorer in MLS with the Crew's current squad.

Now the Crew have Renteria, Vargas, Heinemann, and Horton up top as options with Milovan right behind them. Impressive. And I'm not talking about "impressive" from a goal scoring standpoint. I'm talking IMPRESSIVE from a Passion standpoint.

Passion over everything here at Helltown.

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Tar Heel and recent college title winner (or whatever you call it); Ben Speas is in talks right now with Brian Bliss and the Crew. Could it be that Columbus solved almost all her goal scoring issues in just a couple days?

Big day here in Columbus. Actually, exciting.

In other news... Brian Bliss (Technical Director of the Crew and a person I'm finding more and more fascinating) was called to be part of the U-20 staff.