Crew Roster Notes, Those On the Move

As we enter a new calendar year let's take a look at the current status of three players currently listed Crew roster who don't seem to be settled.

Milovan Mirosevic, Wants Out
Reportedly looking to return to Universidad Católica with a year left on his Crew contract. Pretty sure the Crew are looking to get something in return for the player and I don't think it is out of the question to think fellow countryman Sebastian Miranda was let go with this in mind. Then again, I may be giving the Crew brain trust too much credit. If no deal is met than the Crew have a pretty unmotivated player on their hands.

My thought: It's probably best to reach a deal and let him go.

Emilio Renteria, Contract Expiring
Has less than 48 hours remaining on his contract. Rumblings of him / agent not liking the language in the new deal. I'm sure Emilio would like to be a starter as a forward playing, attacking player but the Crew moved him to midfield since the arrival of Jairo Arrieta.

My thought: Re-sign him. With Arrieta's playing style (aggressive) chances are the club will need another forward.

Dilly Duka, Trade / Transfer
The Crew have made it known they want to use Duka in a trade or transfer if possible. It's got to be shitty for a player to hear they are trade bait. I consider Duka to be a more than capable fill in for Mirosevic were he to go (which he should). Watch Duka on the U23 US team (1:05 and 1:30). He is best playing more centrally. Also, look up images of Mirosevic... now Duka. Note that Mirosevic is always getting knocked down.

My thought: Take Duka off the transfer list, build his confidence. The return would be less valuable. He has the talent, develop it.

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Combined these player's salaries are $600,208 in guaranteed monies. Or, 25% of total guaranteed salary of the 21 players currently listed on the team roster. There is a possibility that all three are being shopped to make room for one player of which @patricksp71 as brought some attention too. His name is Diego Valeri and, according to Soccerway.com captains Guillermo Barros Schelotto's Lanús side in Argentina.

Should be an interesting start to the new year.

The Crew Forward Market

Now that I've looked at Crew Defenders and Midfielders, it's time to take a look at the Crew's attacking group. Just as in the last post I'm going to touch on which players are a hit and which are a miss in regards to contract.

You'd figure that writing about the Forward position might be the most exciting, but it really isn't. Why this is probably has a lot to do with the Columbus Crew switching to a single forward attack over the two that they preferred all of last year and at the start of this year.

The rise of the 4-2-3-1 as Robert Warzycha's primary formation comes from the lack of any target man. The injury to Tommy Heinemann, impatience with Olman Vargas and generally 'rookie-ness' of Aaron Schoenfeld almost forced the oh so mighty hand of Warzycha to go with what was his secondary formation (the: 4-2-3-1) last year.

Since that formation change - the club rode the Jairo Arrieta train from summer on. What that means is that there isn't a whole lot to hang our hats on here at the "forward" position. All is not lost though. How about we look at it from a "attacking" position perspective.

CONTRACT HITS BASED ON VALUE

Federico Higuain
Value: $195k, Contract: $162k
Notes: Contract was cut in half to adjust for MLS rules regarding players starting half way through the season.

Emilio Renteria
Value: $163k, Contract: $134k
Notes: Renteria's Goal p90 rate tanked this year but most of that was due to the change in his role. Renteria took his positional change really well and actually earned three assists.

Jairo Arrieta
Value: $134k, Contract: $113k
Notes: Arrieta is another contract I cut in half due to MLS rules on players coming in halfway through the season.

CONTRACT MISS BASED ON VALUE

Olman Vargas (released)
Value: $79k, Contract: $175k
Notes: Olman contract option was not picked up by the Crew.

...AND ON VARGAS

Turns out that even my modest predictions for him back in February were too lofty. I predicted 3-5 goals, no assists and 1200 minutes of playing time with a scoring rate of 0.12. Turns out I was dead on the scoring rate. In MLS he got 0.13 but only half the 1200 minutes I foresaw. Also, he registered 0 (nowt) assists, just as I thought (mu-hahaha).

On other thing I tried to predict was his salary. I called it at $140k. Turns out it was slightly higher; $175k. What's frustrating to me is that armed with only public information I was able to predict what this player would do and the salary he would make.

Vargas was the only real loss the Crew took at the forward position. In fact, the forward position was the only group that was in the black.

It's surprising to me is that for all the fan discontent with the Crew attacking capabilities the players classified by Stats, Inc as Forwards actually did very well (in terms of value). Much better, in fact, then both Defenders and Midfielders.

-$196k: DEFENDERS
-$186k: MIDFIELD
+$127k: FORWARDS

THE UNDERPAID FORWARDS

Justin Meram and Aaron Schoenfeld are underpaid when comparing what they did to the rest of Major League Soccer. I value Meram at $169k and Schoenfeld at $80k. Both are clear values based on 2012 production. The earned well above their current salaries.

2013 SNEAK PEEK

Robert Warzycha will ride Higuain and Arrieta till the wheels come off. Problem will be - the wheels will inevitably come off. You can't win in this league with just one playmaker and one opportunistic forward. Banking an entire season on that combo is league table suicide. Aaron Schoenfeld and Tommy Heinemann will have to play a role in order for this team to make some noise in 2013. Look at the best teams in this league. Hell. Any league.

Simply put: You cannot survive on a poacher (Arrieta) and an advanced playmaking forward (Higuain) to create all your goals over a 34+ match season.

THE LAST TWO

Of the players that saw time, Ethan Finlay and Ben Speas are the only other players I haven't talked about. I like both of them. It appears that they will be spending time in unnatural spots. Speas seems to be destine for the Left Mid spot and Finlay? Anywhere else under King Warzycha. I like him anywhere that allows him to run.

USMNT Win, Circadian Good

It was a good win because it broke a losing streak against South American teams that goes back six years and 12 games. Last win against a S. American team was May 2006 in Cleveland (oh, hell yeahs! woofwoofwoof!) over the same foe in Venezuela.

Actually, if you want to get technical, the United States has a very good record against Venezuela. 3 Wins, 1 Drawn and Zero in the loss column (since 1988). How do I know? I pulled all USMNT results going back to 1988. That's right, exciting Sundays here in the Brewery District. Anyhow, I stopped that year because it was getting tedious and irrelevant to last nights result to go any farther. Besides, it was the year my beloved z28 Camaro was built. The peak of '80s Camaro engineering, if I must say so. So there I stopped. Logical.

The reason I did it was because I don't like it when misinformation is distributed. And believe me when I say that there is a lot of bad info out there, particularly when the US National Team is involved. Even during last nights broadcast on ESPN 3. It's not just recent times that this has been happening either. Read Brian Glanville's The Story of the World Cup. What a funny little thing FIFA becomes when you take a longer view of it.

Marching back to last nights game....

Good and fair result for the US. I saw crisp and deliberate passing and organized counters. Which is to say, these guys have been coached up (finally, instead of a bunch of good players just kicking it around). I loved it. I'll take what I saw last night over the more talented guys playing in Europe / Central America any day (Dempsey, being one exception). The US team last night was mostly made up of MLS guys and the showed exactly what they should have. I gotta say when Wondo came on I jumped with pride... Were it not for some impressive goal keeping on the Venezuela side, it would have been a 2 or 3 goal outing.

Amazing how different things look when dudes functioning on the same circadian rhythm play together.

Here be interesting finds that I found in my USMNT findings today.

- We've never played Venezuela in Venezuela (since 1988).
- Current Crew forward Emilio Renteria subbed in last night and embarrassed himself getting a late yellow for no reason other than he can't control himself. DAMN IT RENTERIA.
- The USMNT has never lost when playing in Columbus (5 wins, 3 draws, 0 loss). Best record in the United States (over 5 games that is, Seattle has a clean record on 5 games).
- We've lost 12 times out of 18 in Miami. Remind me again why we ever play there?
- Believe it or not we've lost more in Costa Rica than Mexico over the last 25 years.
- The USA has never drawn or won in Costa Rica in 5 games.
- US not too hot outside borders actually. 47-22-65 (W,D,L) is what I have since 1988.
- Show off with your friends. Below are all the South American teams the USMNT has played since the last win. So what if we've only played one outside of the US. We're rich!

2006: USA (2:0) Venezuela
2007: USA (1:3) Paraguay
2007: Argentina (4:1) USA
2007: USA (2:4) Brazil
2008: USA (0:0) Argentina
2009: USA (0:3) Brazil
2009: USA (2:3) Brazil
2010: USA (0:2) Brazil
2011: USA (1:1) Chile
2011: USA (1:1) Argentina
2011: USA (0:1) Paraguay
2012: USA (1:0) Venezuela

We should play more in South America.

Crew Offseason, Outside Looking In

So the Renteria contract ending thing and him playing at a high level in Venezuela has got me thinking... What are the other Crew players doing in the offseason to stay sharp. Not to say taking some time off is bad, just sayin'... Let's take a look.

NOT DOING ANYTHING (as far as I know)
Andy Gruenebaum, Justin Meram (no news on him over the break. Seems frustrated though. Just a hunch. Camps, I see. Excellent player), Bernardo Anor (shares same hometown with Renteria. I imagine he is in Venezuela as well.), Tom Heinemann, Eddie Gaven, Sebastián Miranda, Chad Marshall, Will Hesmer, Danny O´Rourke, Eric Gehrig, Shaun Francis, Aaron Horton, The new goal keeper kid.

MIGHT BE DOING SOMETHING
Emmanuel Ekpo (Nigerian NT but no games), Julius James (Trinidad NT in Nov.), Rich Balchan (in rehab, seems to be determined. I like this guy), Tony Tchani (Generation Adidas player but missed the trip to Holland due to illness?)

WORKIN'
Emilio Renteria (Heheh. Yeah! Playing competitively in Venezuela. On the national team that will be in Phoenix on Jan. 21.), Robbie Rogers (say what you will, he has been trying out all over England. That's something), Dilly Duka (Generation Adidas is keeping him busy. Had two goals in three games during time in Holland).

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Not a lot of news on the team this time of year. Looking at the calendar I see that there is a pre-season thing down in Charleston, SC in a couple months. Thinking about going. But till then... I hope the folks on the team are working hard. This time of year offers an opportunity in a way. A competitive advantage can be gained over the other teams.

Are the Crew taking advantage? It's not only the players that need to keep things moving. Team supporters, fans, bloggers, etc... they need to keep supporting, cheering, writing, and asking questions. Like... are we going to overpay for Renteria because we are lazy?

Seattle became the keepers of Major League Soccer in a few short years. DC's Goff is and has been MLS royalty in terms of league writing and respect. FC Dallas has a guy out there holding it down. The Crew need to be a part of this if they are to remain relevant.

The Crew list...

1. David Burgin. Alive! and my favorite soccer writer. Period.
2. Aaron Katzeman. Better and more professional than the local paper's beat writer. And. Will be writing on the Crew long after I am.
3. Scott Briggs. PBR? Impressed. Doin' it.
4. That Massive thing Report. Kill the mid-west cliche-like negativity. More harm than good last year but... it is the thing to read for Crew fans. No link, though. Still upset about the hot flashes a couple writers got mid-season last year.

Sparkling Form

All quiet on the Crew front... No news on Emilio Renteria yet. Time is running out (his contract is up on Dec. 30). I have to believe he plays very largely in the goal scoring make up of the ver.2012 Crew. I really, really hope that Columbus is all over this. They have to be right? See, this is what bothers me about Major League Soccer. All this time off. The intensity level is zero while the rest of the world is operating at the highest levels. Arg. Frustrating. Anyhow... Outside of Renteria the Crew don't have a whole lot of goal scorers. Well... proven scorers, anyway. Heinemann is ripping it up playing for fake Northampton in FIFA 12. Ladies like him too (tea ladies that is).

Real Northampton is in sorts after today's Boxing Day game. Not looking good. Mess of a game, again. The Cobblers went down to 10 men and blew 2 leads. Not good. Dangerously close to non-league now.

Stoke pulled out the draw, though. For folks that get paid to follow the BPL, I realize that it wasn't pretty, but to me? I've worked everyday since the end of October. I got off a little early and got to catch the final 35 minutes of the game in HD. To me... I got to see a couple long Delap throws. A couple tackles. A couple chances. A side financially solid and full of heart and pride. It was a beautiful in a way that most don't get.

I'll take the point and proudly say that I'm happy they play how they want.

What a great 1st half of the season for the Potters.

Robbie, Renteria and Leadership

Robbie Rogers, Blackburn Rumors.
The People UK writer Alan Nixon reported last week that Steve Kean has invited Robbie over during the transfer window next month. If Steve Kean is still there in January, it may happen. Big if. Blackburn will be looking for a number of sparks after Christmas because they need to move up from the bottom of the table.

Jurgen Klinnsman’s relationship is lifting the value of Rogers. Time is now. He needs a change and Crew fans don’t seem to take to him (which is sort of a shame and sort of not).

A SHAME: Even with is National Team time he assisted on 7 goals last season. That’s 22% of open play goals the team had (32).

NOT A SHAME: On the other hand Crew record during his starts was a below average one (8 wins, 7 drawn, 10 loss) when compared to a player with similar number of starts (22/Gardner, 10-3-9 or 27/Gaven, 11-7-9 W-D-L).

Emilio Rentería, Tradesman.
“… I don’t like to be idle, what we get in MLS is too much vacation for a football player. I remember what Paladini (Rodolfo) the teacher Miguel (Cordero, Physical Trainer First Team) always say; a player should not be off for more than two months."

Looks like Renteria wants to run in the Copa Libertadores (similar to the Champions League for Central and South America) for the team he was with before he came up to Columbus (FC Caracas). He is training with them in the MLS offseason. The club tournament starts late January and ends in July.

Emilio has had a successful run with the Crew to date, very efficient goal scorer. Not sure who found him but his numbers much better in MLS over his time in Venezuelan Primera División. It would be surprising if Columbus loaned him out even for a short time considering what they expect from him this year. I say, let him run though.

Warms my heart that he's down there with fire in the belly. What's the rest of the team doing?

Now Hiring, Professional Soccer Field General (Columbus).
Good article by Adam Jardy in the Dispatch today. In it he reports that the club thinks its most pressing need is leadership.

Technical Director Brian Bliss thinks there is only one way to find a Field General, saying: “You’ve got to buy that and you’re only going to be able to buy that through the international market or a trade.”

Wait, huh?

Also looks like the team approached Tchani about this ‘field general’ role. “I’m going to try, I’m not comfortable with it.” Was Tchani’s response. All kinds of bad there.

It doesn’t appear that they need a leader on the field, rather; they need to take few steps back and find someone who knows what the hell a leader is.

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Helltown Leadership Lesson #1: Tchani and Rentería’s quotes in this post are both about leadership, hunger and heart. Lesson #2; You don't have to ask a leader to be a leader.

Playoffs, The Spoils of Victory and Loss

The Columbus Crew went out looking for two things last night: Goals and a Win. They got both and earned a spot in the playoffs for the 4th year in a row.

The game last night was played on turf so the ball skipped around and run out of players reach enough times that it reminded me of a field hockey match.

The Andres Mendoza / Emilio Renteria pairing cashed in on their promises, at last. Mendoza had a couple goals that were assisted by Renteria and Dilly Duka provided the third in the 3-0 win.

It was a positive team effort but notable play was provided by Eddie Gaven, Danny O'Rourke, and Andres Mendoza. The three of them were +3 in my black and gold book. So, it wasn't a standout night (+5 and above) for any Crew players, just solid. All crew players were 0 to +3 except two.

Only negative play I counted was Duka (-1) and Renteria (-2). I know that seems funny because there are 2 assists and 1 goal between them but I felt their play was just more harmful then positive. Too many attacks stopped with them. Duka is always trying to do to much and Renteria was wild man out there. Wild shots, sloppy passes and multiple offsides. More controlled play by the striker during this exhibition like game would have been a 5 or 6 goal Crew affair.

I did read this morning that the Crew gameplan was to attack at any expense, which is where the offsides comes from, but I don't think Warzycha meant to set a team record. Or, perhaps he did. Don't know. In either case, Renteria was uncharacteristically facing down field the entire game while, interestingly, Mendoza was holding. Two games now where I've seen that from Mendoza. He's done well both times. Could it be that he is a natural Attacking Left Mid in a 4-3-3 or 4-5-1 formation?

Final notes on the game vs the Revs last night: Justin Meram and Eric Gehrig were not listed as subs. Both of these guys are good enough to play in MLS. Of the two, I think Gehrig has the highest ceiling. Meram needs to mature. Switched around from the way I felt earlier this season. I expect to see them next weekend. Let's see how Meram comes out mentally. Not worried about Gehrig.
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PLAYOFFS and TO THE AVERAGE, GO THE SPOILS
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With this win the Crew move into the third "automatic" playoff spot. What is silly is that it is still possible to get first in the East or fall to an Away Wild Card spot.

It could actually be a good thing if the Crew fall to the higher seat in the Wild Card because it gets them an extra home game. Great news from home fans but, more importantly, the bean counters in the front office.

Home games are very important to MLS teams. Ticket sales make up most of the franchise revenue. Concession / Parking / Merchandise is likely around 10% (conservatively, ticket a face is ~25 and parking avg ~7, discounted tix and 2-3 to car etc etc). Playing with the numbers ($18 p/ticket, low) I can see why Commissioner Garber came out.

$3.9 million all in from home games. Low side. I can't imagine the high side being much higher. And $3.4 of that goes out to player salaries... on the positive side; but this is a very top down league. Everybody shares. With Seattle, Portland, Vancouver, LA pulling in disproportionate dollars you can see why the League wants the Crew to get it in gear.

Having that extra Wild Card home game can potentially bring in $400k (if well attended).

And for those wondering... Don't worry, the "Crewzers" don't get paid. I did hear that they do get hair, nails and tan paid for though.

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Only one Regular Season game remains and it is up in Chicago on October 22nd. Chicago should come hungry as they may still have a shot at the playoffs. They are a talented team and Fotios Klopas has them playing well.

A FK Goal in Seattle

I was checking up on Josh Gardner's excellent free kick goal tonight and something struck me. And it wasn't the extraordinary, world class, kick. It was how the whole Columbus Crew team reacted to that kick. Check out the goal again. Maybe again after that one time.

Now again.

What I noticed was the post goal reaction. Not just that of Josh Gardner. But of the whole team. I can't tell you how many sports games I've watched where the team getting destroyed gets a goal/point/touchdown and then proceed to celebrate like they just won the Champions League. Sadly, it happens often.

But curiously. Not after Josh Gardner's particularly fantastic goal last weekend. Not the Crew. Not this team.Gardner. The strike taker. Goal Scorer of something worthy of "top 10". Simply turns around. Head down. And slaps hands with a couple other players and lines back up.

Burns. Burns enters the picture after the goal goes in. He simply trots back to mid-field to restart the game.

Renteria. He reached out to Josh after the amazing kick only to retract after he realizes Josh wants nothing of it. Emilio understands and resumes spartan stance.

Tommy. Oh Tommy. After the strike he sprints into the goal mouth like a bat out of hell to retrieve the ball for restart. For a brief second you can see his arm and fist pump in celebration but it happens as he is running full tilt to grab the ball even though the team is still down by three goals. Amazing heart. Amazing belief. Retain this kid.

Finally. Our Captain. Mr. Marshall. Hands firmly on hips through out the whole event. No sliding on the turf. No giant bear hug. Just a simple "we have been beat. i know you have this in you already. seen it in practice. we are better then this. let's get this over with."Maybe I'm digging into a short moment a little too much. Perhaps Crew players would tell me that Gardner's goal is something to be expected. I like to think that. Ultimately. All I know is that I've watched many a blow out game where my favorite team shows their ass celebrating a meaningless moment late in the game.

Refreshingly, the Crew players didn't here. The game was lost. It was a magnificent worthless moment not to be celebrated.

It's a rare event, this.

Crew IQ

Yesterday, Craig Merz wrote the following over at Crew.com: "When healthy, his bullish runs have effectively put him in a position to score. He had half of the Crew’s first eight goals of the campaign, and has the best goals per 90 minutes average in MLS (0.73) for players with more than five appearances."

Renteria has been playing well, but the goal stat mentioned above is misleading.

1st Problem: Measurement system. "per 90 minutes" used as well as the "appearances." Emilio has 10 appearances and 616 minutes. That equates to 6.8, 90 minute games. Hitching appearances to p/90 statistics will take you down the wrong roads. Roger Torres has been in 16 games for Philly but only has 489 minutes. When pulling goal scoring efficiency, or any other efficiency, "appearances" should not be used as a qualifier.

2nd Problem: Not enough data points. 10 appearances or 6.8 games for Renteria does not give you enough data points to draw any real conclusions other then he had a good start. It's actually dangerous to look at soccer efficiency this way. Millions have been paid to poor players because of a few good games.

3rd Problem: Merz includes goals off penalty kick. Renteria has 5 goals but 2 off PK.

Oh PK. Saving and extending careers since 1996.

Renteria's real goal p/90 is actually good (0.44). It's a rate I see often when I look at good forwards. But is it the best?

Here is what you get when looking at players around Emilio Renteria's minutes:

Rate: 0.63 / 714 MINS De Rosario (time with DC only)
Rate: 0.57 / 632 MINS Alan Gordon (time with TFC only)
Rate: 0.56 / 809 MINS Conor Casey (Injured)
Rate: 0.45 / 792 MINS Brian Ching
Rate: 0.44 / 616 MINS Emilio Renteria
Rate: 0.40 / 453 MINS Steve Zakuani (Injured)

That puts Renteria in some good company but you can also see that using low appearances (5) as a qualifier yields exceptions (injuries, recently traded players) which is an indicator that says 5 apps is not enough time to pull any real substance out of.

Regardless, even using Merz system his claim on Renteria isn't accurate anyway. According to Stats, Inc. Paulo Jr. has 5 apps and a p/90 rate of 0.89 for RSL.

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Past performance predicts future results.

In 2010 Renteria scored 5 goals in 857 mins or 9.5 games. His rate was an extremely impressive 0.52. Combine last year with this year and we get 16.4 games played and a goal scoring rate of 0.48.

That's very good. Comparing to guys with similar minutes in 2011? Eric Hassli (0.49) / Landon Donovan (0.48). I'd say that's good company.