Ten months ago I took a look at the USL Pro division and pulled out a number of names that I felt were the crème de la crème based on the rating model I developed for Major League Soccer players.
So, before digging into this year it's important to go back and take a look at how well my list
from ten months ago did. After all, if I missed on all the players last year then time to crumple up my rating model and air ball an attempt at my NC State trashcan hoop 3 feet away and start again.
In CAPS on the right will be my comments on if they should be in Major League Soccer.
Luke Mulholland : F : YES
Number 1 on my list last year, moved to Tampa Bay Rowdies and helped them finish 2nd in the league and win the NASL championship. I've inserted NASL stats in to my model as well and hope to get to that soon in this space but Luke finished 5th there.
Jhonny Arteaga : F : HE IS, KINDA
Picked up by NY Red Bulls, handful of apps, fans didn't seem to take to him but look at who he was playing behind. Recently released. I'd like to see another MLS team pick him up.
Matthew Delicâte : CF : POSSIBLY TOO LATE
Still with Richmond, not as productive as 2011 still above avg at 0.47 G+A p90. Have him rated overall as 8th best USL F in 2012. Still stings that the Crew didn't go after him instead of Olman Vargas last year.
Jorge Ivan Becerra : [will have to update]
Henry Kalungi : D : NEEDS A GOOD 2013
Still with Richmond, decent year but not as good at 2011. Rate him 60th overall but way down the list of defenders.
Rob Valentino : D : WORTH A LOOK
Solid year with Orlando, by far the league's best team and best defense. He missed some time this year though so he dropped down the list a bit. Still, two good years in a row on the best team? Worth a look.
Paul Nicholson : MF : WORTH A LOOK
Solid year with a not as good as 2011 Wilmington but 2 good years put together. Decent size. 26 yrs old. Worth a look.
Sainey Touray : F : WORTH A CLOSE LOOK
2 goals, 4 assists in 808 minutes. Productive, good size. Still only 22. G+A p90 0.67, 15th in USL with those over 450 mins. Was only a game away from 900 mins... would have been 5th in G+A p90 >900 mins.
An honest evaluation would be to say my model was able to pick out above average players. I am satisfied with results so I am moving forward with a new list and doing it early enough in hopes that MLS clubs take a harder look at the talent in the USL Pro division.
Important to note that this is more a list of prospects - in that I pulled ones who seemed poised to do good things based on age and situation along with league performance.
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2012 USL PRO, WATCH LIST
Orlando City dominated the league (in many ways including expansion hype, Wayne Rooney's brother and Tony Pulis' son) this year so I'm going to start with them, the league's best team.
01 LUKE BODEN : 24 : D : ORLANDO CITY
This 6'1" Englishman spent his formidable years with Sheffield Wednesday. After getting loaned out a couple times he signed a deal with Orlando. Boden clocked 1890 minutes with Orlando this year which means he anchored a backline that allowed an astonishingly low 0.75 goals against per match (best in the league). Based on his numbers alone I am confident that Boden should get a look. Add in that he was shaped by a club like Sheffield Wednesday and you have a player who will likely make his way on to a MLS side soon.
02 KEVIN MOLINO : 22 : M : ORLANDO CITY
Molino was the
2012 USL PRO MVP and I can see why. I have him second overall in the league (played in 200+ less mins than Boden). That said, Molino was ever present on the team (23 apps of 24 possible). From the MF he managed a 0.54 G+A p90 rate which is 4th when looking at MF with over 900 minutes. Kevin has played on every level of Trinidad and Tobago national team. Given his age I'm positive more than a few MLS teams are looking at him.
COUPLE OTHERS FROM ORLANDO
MATTHEW LUZUNARIS : 23 : F : CAROLINA via ORLANDO
Luzuraris is a player who has already been identified by many. He's from Florida and has seemingly been all around the world yet just 23. Like many attacking talents, he goes to a club, gets a handful of chances and gets shuffled along before he can prove himself. Well, last year in Orlando he got that chance and made a big splash with 1.06 G+A p90 for Orlando City. Since he played 934 league minutes that puts him over my magic 900 min / 10 GM mark. Extremely effective player.
JAMIE WATSON : 26 : MF : MIN STARS via ORLANDO
Jamie has popped up on my radar a few times. He's got fairly extensive MLS experience already. He's a former Generation Adidas player that was probably burnt a bit by that contract. No question about his passion for the game though. He tallied 5 Goals and 3 Assists in 1526 minutes on the best team in the league. G+A p90 rate of 0.47, which is very good. A little undersized (5'9") for MLS but impressive resume.
DENNIS CHIN : 25 : F : ORLANDO
Dennis is only behind teammate Luzunaris in the G+A metric. He a 6'3" forward that recorded 0.96 G+A p90 with 1223 minutes played. That's 11 Goals, 2 Assists. He was the highest aggregate goal scorer in the league.
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MORE TOP IN USL PRO
04 NICKI PATERSON : 27 : MF : CHARLESTON BATTERY
This Scot's resume tells me he has been around the block a bit but no MLS experience as of yet. He'll be 28 by the start of 2013 MLS action by he's worth a look. I see 10 (2nd in the league) Goals and 2 Assists while playing in 93% of all possible minutes for a 0.54 G+A p90, good enough for 3rd highest among USL Pro Midfielders with over 900 minutes.
09 DANNY EARLS : 23 : D-MF : ROCHESTER RHINOS
Another from the British Isles, this time an Irishman that spend a couple years with Colorado Rapids in MLS before winding up in Rochester last year. He was an ironman for the 2nd place club playing in 96% of available minutes notching 2 Goals and 3 Assists. Danny is 5'9" but stout. What's that mean? A 5'9" American might be considered undersized in MLS but not a similar sized Irishman. Does that make sense? It better. He also
makes art. Find him, try him - MLS teams.
23 JOSE CUEVAS : 23 : MF : CHARLESTON BATTERY
At 23 years old, Cuevas won 2012 USL Pro Rookie of the Year. This probably placed him on a number of radars across MLS. Awards aside - I like his 7 Goals and 4 Assists in 1659 minutes. Even at 5'8" he's worth a look.
24 COLIN FALVEY : 27 : D : CHARLESTON BATTERY+YoungHeart
This square jawed Irishman likes to play football year round by playing the summers in USL and winters all the way around the world in New Zealand. Falvey says: "...you get to play and get paid all year round. You also get to see and live in two wonderful countries." That quote typifies what I feel the Crew is all about. Falvey is the reason why I like looking this stuff up. It's one of the reasons to love this sport.
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Loads of good players in the USL Pro division. With the amount of competitive games these guys play and available stats MLS clubs should be building models based around: success in the league, age, size, etc. Matching that up with how similar players specific traits based on performance in the past when making the jump to MLS allows you the ability predict output and minimize risk.
For this research I used the statistics publicly posted on the official
USL website.
Complete player ratings and stats on all 269 players to see USL Pro mintues,
go here.
