Updated MLS Facts, Figures... Rules (finally)

The Montreal Impact haven't reached that all important fifth game yet for me but I'm going to go ahead and start updating my facts, stats and figures for the 2015 MLS season.

Since 2011 I've been tracking a handful of important stats over on the right hand column of this site (desktop version). They are updated about once a week. This is the first time I'm updating them for 2015, so here are some notes on the season thus far:

• This year marks the 5th anniversary of my Helltown Player scores
• 24% of the MLS season is complete (81 of 340 games)
• Games are averaging 2.27 goals, still a little low
• Penalty goals low (5.4%) - correction from last year perhaps
• After 8 games Crew SC are in a familiar mid-table spot (9th)
• Crew SC goals way up 3rd in GF, 2nd in GD... 9th in GA
• Defense rules this year, 16 teams allowing under 1.34 goals per game

GOAL AND ASSIST LEAGUE LEADERS

We have a lot more information of which to evaluate players in different positions these days but this is always a fun one to keep an eye on. In a league like MLS where any given week can see games SIX games apart in games played you have to use metrics. Aggregate does you absolutely no good.

Goals and Assists (sans penalties) per 90 minutes played is a great way to get at how is contributing on the offensive side of the ball. My "mile markers" though out the year are 450 minutes played (five 90 minute games) and 900 minutes (10 games). The figures below are players with a minimum of 450 minutes.

Goals + Assist / 90s
1.03 - Sebastian Giovinco (TFC) $New
1.01 - Fabian Castillo (DAL) $76,250
0.92 - Javier Morales (RSL) $300,000
0.90 - Kei Kamara (CREW) $New
0.86 - Blas Pérez (DAL) $359,250
0.83 - Obafemi Martins (SEA) $1,753,333
0.80 - Justin Meram (CREW) $91,827
0.69 - Ethan Finlay (CREW) $65,847
0.67 - Harrison Shipp (CHI) $95,000
0.65 - Dillon Powers (COL) $127,650
0.63 - Benny Feilhaber (KC) $337,187
0.63 - Giles Barnes (HOU) $241,158
0.60 - Octavio Rivero (VAN) $New

Highlighted yellow are Crew players. They are starting out where they left off last year. Took a while for Finlay to get a goal but his contributions were coming via assist (Kamara being the beneficiary). The wages are from 2014. Most of these names are familiar. I am expecting measurable pay increases for Castillo and Finlay. Shipp may jump into Powers land.

If you are unfamiliar with this stat, in MLS is goes:

>0.80 = Need to be playing in a better league (unless old)
>0.60 = Very good attacking player
>0.30 = Replacement level attacking player in MLS
>0.29 = Not an attacking player in MLS

TEAM LEADERS

Here are league leaders in a two basic categories I find important to success in MLS. They take a lot of heat from pundits during games (for that particular game) but if you look at them over time... :

1. Possession
Possessing the ball well in one game or two doesn't tell you much. But doing it over the course of a season? It's huge. Opta tracks possession as number of passes, not actual stop watch time of possession. Making more passes means you can, well, pass good and trap good and shield the ball well and make better decisions...

57.2 : New York Red Bulls
53.9 : Columbus Crew SC
53.9 : New York City FC

2. Shots on Target per Game
Gotta get the ball on frame for it to go in. It's a constant argument in my head on the importance of this stat. Over the years I've observed that teams that score more than one ever four shots finishes towards the top. The more you get, the more goals you have. It's like keepers have a secret society where it's written that they have to let 1 in 4 go by.

5.3 shots per game: NY Red Bulls
5.1 : Seattle Sounders
4.9 : DC United
4.8 : Columbus Crew SC


INDIVIDUAL PLAYER RATINGS

It looks like The Castrol Index is taking the year off from Major League Soccer which takes the number of league player raters down to just three. Me, Squawka and WhoScored.com. In the past I've used fantasy soccer scores to add some color to ratings but, well, we'll see this year.

Crew SC off to a strong start ratings wise again this year with two players in my top 20 right now in Kei Kamara (3rd overall) and Ethan Finlay (20th). Steve Clark, Michael Parkhurst and Emanuel Pogatetz are also in the Helltown top 25%

Over at Squawka I see that there rating system loves the Crew. Kamara, Tchani, Meram, Clark, Parkhurst and Pogatetz all in the top 10% of all players. WhoScored likes Kamara, Tchani and Meram.

With that, I decided to to a quick rating combining all three systems. This is the type of analysis I would use if I wanted to get to issues quickly. Time is always short and this moves aside players like Kamara, Tchani, Meram, Finlay and the center backs. It puts them in a "good" bucket to evaluate later. Guys like Saeid, Klute, Steindorsson and even Higuain and Francis are guys that I'd be asking questions about.

Since this list includes all players with regular season minutes you want your guys falling in the top half. Anyone around the middle group and below are ones that I would do a deep dive in to.

Here is how this works:

100 pts : Top 10% of players
75 pts : Top quarter of all players
50 pts : Top half of all players
0 pts : Bottom half of all players


MLS RULES AND REGULATIONS

The league finally posted their rules and regulations. As mentioned above, a quarter of the season gone. This is the way of MLS still, after 20 years, unfortunately. The little things are what this league kills you with and the can't even get their own details figured out. How much time does the league spend on this? Unnecessary.

More rules this year but as always I keep a copy of the basic roster rules housed here at Helltown under PAGES.

All I've got for now.

USL PRO, Top Performers 2012

Ten months ago I took a look at the USL Pro division and pulled out a number of names that I felt were the crème de la crème based on the rating model I developed for Major League Soccer players.

So, before digging into this year it's important to go back and take a look at how well my list from ten months ago did. After all, if I missed on all the players last year then time to crumple up my rating model and air ball an attempt at my NC State trashcan hoop 3 feet away and start again.

In CAPS on the right will be my comments on if they should be in Major League Soccer.

Luke Mulholland : F : YES
Number 1 on my list last year, moved to Tampa Bay Rowdies and helped them finish 2nd in the league and win the NASL championship. I've inserted NASL stats in to my model as well and hope to get to that soon in this space but Luke finished 5th there.

Jhonny Arteaga : F : HE IS, KINDA
Picked up by NY Red Bulls, handful of apps, fans didn't seem to take to him but look at who he was playing behind. Recently released. I'd like to see another MLS team pick him up.

Matthew Delicâte : CF : POSSIBLY TOO LATE
Still with Richmond, not as productive as 2011 still above avg at 0.47 G+A p90. Have him rated overall as 8th best USL F in 2012. Still stings that the Crew didn't go after him instead of Olman Vargas last year.

Jorge Ivan Becerra : [will have to update]

Henry Kalungi : D : NEEDS A GOOD 2013
Still with Richmond, decent year but not as good at 2011. Rate him 60th overall but way down the list of defenders.

Rob Valentino : D : WORTH A LOOK
Solid year with Orlando, by far the league's best team and best defense. He missed some time this year though so he dropped down the list a bit. Still, two good years in a row on the best team? Worth a look.

Paul Nicholson : MF : WORTH A LOOK
Solid year with a not as good as 2011 Wilmington but 2 good years put together. Decent size. 26 yrs old. Worth a look.

Sainey Touray : F : WORTH A CLOSE LOOK
2 goals, 4 assists in 808 minutes. Productive, good size. Still only 22. G+A p90 0.67, 15th in USL with those over 450 mins. Was only a game away from 900 mins... would have been 5th in G+A p90 >900 mins.

An honest evaluation would be to say my model was able to pick out above average players. I am satisfied with results so I am moving forward with a new list and doing it early enough in hopes that MLS clubs take a harder look at the talent in the USL Pro division.

Important to note that this is more a list of prospects - in that I pulled ones who seemed poised to do good things based on age and situation along with league performance.

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2012 USL PRO, WATCH LIST

Orlando City dominated the league (in many ways including expansion hype, Wayne Rooney's brother and Tony Pulis' son) this year so I'm going to start with them, the league's best team.

01 LUKE BODEN : 24 : D : ORLANDO CITY

This 6'1" Englishman spent his formidable years with Sheffield Wednesday. After getting loaned out a couple times he signed a deal with Orlando. Boden clocked 1890 minutes with Orlando this year which means he anchored a backline that allowed an astonishingly low 0.75 goals against per match (best in the league). Based on his numbers alone I am confident that Boden should get a look. Add in that he was shaped by a club like Sheffield Wednesday and you have a player who will likely make his way on to a MLS side soon.

02 KEVIN MOLINO : 22 : M : ORLANDO CITY
Molino was the 2012 USL PRO MVP and I can see why. I have him second overall in the league (played in 200+ less mins than Boden). That said, Molino was ever present on the team (23 apps of 24 possible). From the MF he managed a 0.54 G+A p90 rate which is 4th when looking at MF with over 900 minutes. Kevin has played on every level of Trinidad and Tobago national team. Given his age I'm positive more than a few MLS teams are looking at him.

COUPLE OTHERS FROM ORLANDO

MATTHEW LUZUNARIS : 23 : F : CAROLINA via ORLANDO
Luzuraris is a player who has already been identified by many. He's from Florida and has seemingly been all around the world yet just 23. Like many attacking talents, he goes to a club, gets a handful of chances and gets shuffled along before he can prove himself. Well, last year in Orlando he got that chance and made a big splash with 1.06 G+A p90 for Orlando City. Since he played 934 league minutes that puts him over my magic 900 min / 10 GM mark. Extremely effective player.

JAMIE WATSON : 26 : MF : MIN STARS via ORLANDO
Jamie has popped up on my radar a few times. He's got fairly extensive MLS experience already. He's a former Generation Adidas player that was probably burnt a bit by that contract. No question about his passion for the game though. He tallied 5 Goals and 3 Assists in 1526 minutes on the best team in the league. G+A p90 rate of 0.47, which is very good. A little undersized (5'9") for MLS but impressive resume.

DENNIS CHIN : 25 : F : ORLANDO
Dennis is only behind teammate Luzunaris in the G+A metric. He a 6'3" forward that recorded 0.96 G+A p90 with 1223 minutes played. That's 11 Goals, 2 Assists. He was the highest aggregate goal scorer in the league.

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MORE TOP IN USL PRO

04 NICKI PATERSON : 27 : MF : CHARLESTON BATTERY
This Scot's resume tells me he has been around the block a bit but no MLS experience as of yet. He'll be 28 by the start of 2013 MLS action by he's worth a look. I see 10 (2nd in the league) Goals and 2 Assists while playing in 93% of all possible minutes for a 0.54 G+A p90, good enough for 3rd highest among USL Pro Midfielders with over 900 minutes.

09 DANNY EARLS : 23 : D-MF : ROCHESTER RHINOS
Another from the British Isles, this time an Irishman that spend a couple years with Colorado Rapids in MLS before winding up in Rochester last year. He was an ironman for the 2nd place club playing in 96% of available minutes notching 2 Goals and 3 Assists. Danny is 5'9" but stout. What's that mean? A 5'9" American might be considered undersized in MLS but not a similar sized Irishman. Does that make sense? It better. He also makes art. Find him, try him - MLS teams.

23 JOSE CUEVAS : 23 : MF : CHARLESTON BATTERY
At 23 years old, Cuevas won 2012 USL Pro Rookie of the Year. This probably placed him on a number of radars across MLS. Awards aside - I like his 7 Goals and 4 Assists in 1659 minutes. Even at 5'8" he's worth a look.

24 COLIN FALVEY : 27 : D : CHARLESTON BATTERY+YoungHeart

This square jawed Irishman likes to play football year round by playing the summers in USL and winters all the way around the world in New Zealand. Falvey says: "...you get to play and get paid all year round. You also get to see and live in two wonderful countries." That quote typifies what I feel the Crew is all about. Falvey is the reason why I like looking this stuff up. It's one of the reasons to love this sport.

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Loads of good players in the USL Pro division. With the amount of competitive games these guys play and available stats MLS clubs should be building models based around: success in the league, age, size, etc. Matching that up with how similar players specific traits based on performance in the past when making the jump to MLS allows you the ability predict output and minimize risk.

For this research I used the statistics publicly posted on the official USL website.

Complete player ratings and stats on all 269 players to see USL Pro mintues, go here.

Soccer Stats and You

By 'you' I mean Europe and the UK. EPL Talk put up a couple good posts about soccer stats today. They didn't necessarily go into the stats themselves but made some very good points about the direction of Premier League Soccer. I know I mention EPL Talk more then I should here, but I find their posts and way of writing approachable. I do find error in the way they analysed cards today but really appreciate the fact that they went out and dug into it themselves and hope they do it more in the future.

It is interesting to me because a little bit ago I went into the cleanest and dirtiest teams in the league this year in a similar way and found Stoke to be the one of the "cleanest". They found them, by looking at cards over a couple decades, to be the dirtiest. I thought about looking at only yellow and red cards but found that a small but significant percentage of them come from descent, time wasting or other non-rough play. Example would be Man U's goalie over the weekend. His disagreement with the ref was certainly not dirty or rough play. I found, in looking at fouls, that sort of thing happening in the case of 'cards' too often.

Anyway, this gets me motivated on picking apart the table again. Last time I did a pretty good job at pulling out the trip down the table for Blackpool and the trip up for Liverpool.

Oh, and got another good Stoke comment from EPL Talk:

"This confirms what i already knew, that Stoke were a bunch of dirty ****s and should as Arseblogger said “been beaten to death with there mothers arms by a gang of angry warlocks”."

Big Ten Champs

Ohio State and Michigan had a run from 1968 to 1982 where they won every Big Ten league title except two and both of those were co-champion years with OSU or M. So basically one of the two schools won every year for 14 years straight.

OSU and Michigan have won 60% of the league titles from 1960. Take it back to 1896 and the two have won 46% of them.

Believe it.