Tuesday, June 15, 2010

Fired Up, but Focused

The WC is cruising along and I'm missing it (pesky work thing!). But we (me) here at Helltown just needs the numbers, baby. At least I keep telling myself that.

North Korea v. Brazil.

On the surface? A crazy result. But dig below that first level and you'll see it is not. You could say; "Brazil has won 64 games in the WC and North Korea just 1". You could say; "Brazil - 201 goals scored... N. Korea - 5". But wait! It's what happens on the field when you are there is what matters! N. Korea averages 1.25 goals in those few games... Brazil 2.18. Brazil allows .91 goals a game... N. Korea: 2.25. Final score was Brazil 2 / N. Korea 1. History was in control here.

Hindsight is 20/20 though. It's easy for me to state that after the fact. I've already missed the Algeria v Slovenia result (which will haunt me).

Cote d'lvoire v Portugal was a semi surprising result, but again their combined goals for was even (1.7 goals per for both), but that doesn't cancel out. The Ivory Coast allows a couple goals per game verse Portugal's stingy 1.11. The Ivory Coast defense did something unexpected and special. That said, goal scoring is a little down this year for what ever reason. At least early on.

So what about tomorrow? Shall I step out onto a limb and predict because I'm acting like a know it all? Wait... what's that I hear???

Honduraaaaaasssssss!!!! v Chile.

What's the line. First up. Low scoring. Chile averages 1.24 goals a game verses .67 for Honduraaaassss! Same story on goals against. Chile allows 1.6 (about the WC median) v. 1.0 for Honduraaaaasssss! So... bottom line. Both struggle with scoring a bit and Honduraaaaassss! can't make up enough in offense. If it isn't a nil nil tie it will be 1-0 one way or another. The chances of one team scoring two are slim, however, I will qualify with the relative inexperience of Honduraaaaasssss!

What I am saying is that it is highly unlikely that Honduras will score more then one goal. If they do? I'll declare a national Honduras day here in Columbus.

Okay. Honduras has never won a WC game, but they are due... I know it. I just do. My heart tells me so.

Would I like either Honduras or Chile playing a European team in their first game? Yes. I'm pulling for both of them as I am Uruguay and Paraguay. Little Paraguay. I'm pulling for them all.

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