Wednesday, June 23, 2010

England and FMEA

Failure Mode and Effects Analysis.

Seems to be England's way. FMEA, in manufacturing, is a tool used that looks a what could go wrong and how to prevent it. It is a close cousin to what the Japanese call "poka yoke" (mistake proofing). You ever pulled a diesel gas pump by accident and tried to fill up your tank with gas? It didn't fit because the barrel on the diesel pump was too large to fit into your tank... poka yoke. It prevents you from filling it. Open your washing machine during cycle and it turns off? poka yoke. Ideas that are a result of FMEA.

England soccer; it seems to be a result of FMEA. With the tool you dig deep into each thing that could cause failure and affix a score to it. A fishbone is useful in determining way an input (x) may be to an output (y). In England's case it is not advancing out of the Group Stage. One X (input) is having more goals scored on you. England has ranked this highest using three things. Severity, Occurrence and Detection. On a 1 (low) to 10 (high) scale. They have determined that each gets a 10.

Severity = 10.
Because if you have more goals scored on you... you lose.

Occurrence = 10.
You don't want it to happen often.

Detection = 10.
Well, you can detect when this happens. The other team goes nuts. But you just don't know exactly when or who is going to do it.

Since you are only using 3 categories you use a multiplier instead of adding them up. It separates the scores more. In the case of this particular X it goes 10x10x10 = 1000. Highest you can get. So what should England do? Reduce each score.

Severity: Prevent goal scoring with strong leadership in the back.

Occurrence: Use players in the back that don't make mistakes. Consistency reduces the occurrence of goals against.

Detection: Determine when and how a goal may be scored by the opposition. In the group stage this is an art form. By reducing occurrence you greatly increase the ability to detect what the other team will try to do.

Nice work on the FMEA in the Group Stage this WC England. Veeeerrrry exciting. How about working on all aspects of DMAIC and win this damned thing.

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