Friday, May 27, 2011

Clouds over Columbus: Crew v. Chivas

All of the three games Chivas has won this year has come in the last five games. The Crew have only won one in their last five. You could argue that this is the proverbial "TWO TEAMS HEADING IN OPPOSITE DIRECTIONS" headline. But this is the MLS. Game times, Location, Team Travel and even Weather, one could argue, decide many games.

Chivas is the only team to come from the West and win in the East and this one is here in Columbus. Game time is a reasonable, good footballing time of 7:30 PM EST.

It's Columbus, so who the hell knows right now. The Wunderground is calling for a cloudy 70s day with the ever present slight chance of rain.

So with the intangibles out of the way it looks like we have the makings of a level playing ground with fortune on the side of the home team (booooring). Quality should be on show. Something the Crew haven't been able to show in the last however many weeks due to travel and incessant RAIN (where ever they are; home or away).

09: Columbus Crew
11: Chivas

86: Alejandro Moreno
84: Nick LaBrocca
80: Eddie Gaven (CREW)
80: Heath Pearce
79: Robbie Rogers (CREW)
78: Ante Jazic
78: Sebastian Miranda (CREW)
76: Ben Zemanski
76: Chad Marshall (CREW)
76: Julius James (CREW)

Clear weather and playing at home favors the Crew. Normal distribution of data tells us goals are on the menu for the Crew tomorrow. There is a direct relationship between Goals per shot and goals per game. Columbus has epically poor quality in the category. Chivas? Slightly below average. Numbers, without intangibles, tell us that this is destine for a 1-0 Crew win. However, normal distribution of goals combined with weather and location tell us that the Crew could win 3-1.
Green is good. Higher number is good. The key is for one team to break through the numbers above. If the Crew can't muster up more then ONE goal then we have a serious problem. To the bottom of the table will the Crew fall.

Oh... forgot to mention. Dollar Beer night in Columbus tomorrow? Nervous. History tell us... Hide the kids. Shit.

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