Wednesday, April 13, 2011

Danger Man

Or Front Man, Striker, Forward. Whatever you like. For them things can be measured a bit easier. Soccer is more then just scoring goals but for the danger man it is mainly just that. "Get it in the back of the net."

Fernando Torres is not doing so. Well, at least that's what we are being told. So for about an hour this evening I pulled the numbers from this year to see if that is indeed the case.

In doing so I looked at EPL games of which he started only. Here's what I got.

His Accuracy (Shots on Goal / All shots): 32%
Goals per Shot: 9%
Goals + Assists p/Game: .41

In the 27 games this year he has started 55% have left him with no goals or assists. Which almost matches his G+A p/GM at .41

But what does this mean? Is he good? Is he bad? Well, for that lets look at one of my favorite Stoke players... Jon Walters!

Accuracy: 44%
Goals p/SH: 12%
G+A p/GM: .24

Jon has him on two of the three. However, Jon misses out on any goals or assists 80% of the time. The Stoke gameplan has a lot to do with that. We are talking the same competition here though. All Prem teams.

Let's look at a couple other players... Andy Carroll and Wayne Rooney.


Accuracy: 36%
Goals p/SH: 15%
G+A p/GM: .76

Likelihood of not scoring any goals or assisting in such? 40%


Accuracy: 41%
Goals p/SH: 14%
G+A p/GM: 1.05

Likelihood of not producing anything? 40%. Same as Carrol.

Just thoughts, I guess. It's interesting that Rooney is averaging a goal or an assist in every game.

The conclusion here is that Torres is not have a 50 million type of year. If he is worth that... then what is Rooney worth?

Oh, and Fabio? Start Rooney and Carroll up front in your 4-4-2.

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