Podcast: Red Cards in Helltown Episode XIII

00:50 HEADLINES
• Jermaine Jones "blind draw," New England got him
• Getting that +1 or +2 home game (playoffs) critical
• Guardian piece (link) on Jones
• Steve Goff and Bruce Arena interview, Washington Post (link)
• (the competitive format, MLS speed bump)

15:15 COLUMBUS CREW
• "Montreal shut them down" - Rick Gethin
• Number Nine conversation (Bedell) conversation
• Crew got out possessed in the first half
• ...more Bedell conversation, giving fair shake
• Every minute is an investment in a player
• Berhalter audio, every game is like a final, comments
• Inexperience traveling, midsummer game
• "The perfect Josh Williams game"
• Berhalter audio, individual battles
• Sharpness wasn't there

39:05 HEADLINES
• Ultimate Parity, LET'S GET TO THE RESULTS!
• LA going on a rampage since Crew
• Sporting being un-sporting
• Some Toronto comments (right before Nelsen got let go)
• Relying on a system, knowing and understanding your process
• Playoff picture, if that's your thing
• Toronto falling has created a cluster
• Colorado epic collapse
• Las Vegas expansion news (link)

• Pro radio man Larry messes up audio during live recording, blames a cat

57:20 HEADLINE(s)
• Sports Business Journal, U.S. soccer growth (link)

Predictions: Crew Rd 26, Away in Montreal

Crew travel to Stade Saputo to face Montreal Impact this evening, 7:30 PM EST.

GAME NOTES
CLB: Full travel roster (19), not always the case this year
CLB: On have one win in last 10 away (5 draw, 4 loss)
CLB: Back line questions remain, Finlay, Meram in MF form
MTL: Montreal have conceded at least 2 goals in 7 of their last 8
MTL: Outside of CCL play, season all but over for Impact
MTL: Former Crew man Dilly Duka should be in lineup tonight

GAME PREDICTIONS
Number on far left is percentage accuracy picking result. In parentheses is correct picks in last ten games.

52% (6) COLUMBUS DISPATCH ... COLUMBUS CREW
48% (4) WHOSCORED.COM ... COLUMBUS CREW
44% (5) MLSSOCCER ... DRAW
44% (5) WIN DRAW WIN ... COLUMBUS CREW
40% (4) GOAL.COM ... MONTREAL IMPACT
36% (4) BET365 ... COLUMBUS CREW
36% (4) HOME TEAM ... MONTREAL IMPACT
28% (5) TABLE POSITION ... COLUMBUS CREW
--% (-) WV HOOLIGAN ... (no pick)
--% (-) MASSIVE REPORT ... (no pick)

GAME THOUGHTS
Adam Jardy of the Columbus Dispatch writes in today's paper that it would be "shocking" if the Crew lose this one. Over at WhoScored.com, Graham Ruthven talks about the Crew going through a "mini revival." Home base hype machine MLSsoccer.com doesn't trust Columbus quite yet, somewhat surprisingly has 4 of the 6 on panel going with a draw.

Over at the betting sites we see that the Crew hold slight edge. BET365.com has home and away at 13/8 draw at 23/10. Win Draw Win your vote sections likes the Crew here, 44% of the vote (MTL 20%). Large Stake is on 0-1 Away.

Montreal's home record this year is abysmal, as is there overall, but the Crew Away record doesn't exactly sparkle either (one win in last ten). That said, seems to be little question that the Columbus Crew are favorites tonight.

The only question tonight for the Crew is how the team will approach this match tactically in the back. Even with Giancarlo Gonzalez, head coach Gregg Berhalter holds back a little bit on the road. With two big wins in as many weeks at home one wonders if he will approach this one the same way. There's no reason he shouldn't, but there is some risk there of some 'in form' role players regressing. Especially a few of the less experienced ones, as this match is on the road.

For a full preview on the match head over to Massive Report to check out Pat Murphy's conversation with Sofiane Benzaza of Mount Royal Soccer.

Weather looks agreeable, partly cloudy and in the mid to high 70s.

Bruce Arena Prior to Game at Crew Stadium, Aug 2014

Continuing my search and share of never used MLS pictures; Above is a photo by Joe Maiorna taken for USA Today Sports. It is a photo that I very much like. Bruce Arena is a larger than life figure to guys like me. He's one of the only guys in the league left that transcends Major League Soccer. For a league that boasts about only engaging 18-34 year old demographic new to the sport (and actively discouraging the rest), there is something about that I like.

"Because they are children and there have to be adults in the process, and we didn’t have enough of them. I think we are back into the old days in the league when the rules are somewhat arbitrary. Hopefully we will get that straightened out in the offseason." - Bruce Arena, in my favorite interview of the year with Steve Goff of the Washington Post.

Arena helped drag the sport out of the post NASL era and put the USA back on the worldwide soccer map. In this picture he is seen strolling the touchline of a stadium that he, at least in some part, has something to do with. Now one of his students, a generation or so on, is coaching the Columbus Crew in Gregg Berhalter.

Did I mention that this is a picture I very much like?

Kei Kamara, or Trade?

So, this yellow shirted gentleman is Kei Kamara. He is 30 years old. He was born and raised in Sierra Leone. He moved to the states when he was 16.

Mr. Kamara is a forward. He has played a number of years in Major League Soccer. He has played for Columbus (appearing in 36 games), San Jose (12 games), Houston (32 games) and Kansas City. Kansas City is the club for which Kamara played the longest period of time, 5 years.

Recently, Kei Kamara has been knocking the ball around England, first with Norwich City for 11 games, and then with Middlesbrough for 25 games. He and Middlesbrough have parted ways. With the exception of Kansas City, it seems Kei Kamara has had a difficult time staying in one place for long.

The Columbus Crew hold the first spot in Major League Soccer's allocation order. If the Crew want Kamara, and Kamara wants to play in Columbus, he is the Black and Gold's to have. But does Kei Kamara fit into what Gregg Berhalter has been building the last nine months? Would Gregg Berhalter and the Columbus Crew be better off trading the first allocation spot to another Major League Soccer team for a different sort of forward?

Rumor has it that Kamara wants to be in Kansas City or Vancouver. Rumors are often flights of fancy born on the wings of angels made out of milk chocolate and caramel. But...let's suppose the rumors are a tad bit more than sweet dreams floating heavenward.

Vancouver and Sporting KC have some interesting forwards on their rosters. Forwards that, on the surface at least, would seem to make a much more comfortable fit with the Crew's existing roster and style of play.

Take for example:

 

These young men are, in order from top to bottom: Soony Saad, 22-year-old currently playing for Kansas City; CJ Sapong, 25-year-old currently playing for Kansas City; and Darren Mattocks, 24-year-old currently playing for Vancouver.

All three of these footballers are dynamic young strikers. In Saad's case you have a player who left college, University of Michigan, at the age of 19, having scored a freshman record nineteen goals. Soony also lit up his high school senior season with 76 goals.

CJ Sapong played four years at James Madison University. His 20 goals in 103 appearances for Kansas City hint at his fearless attitude inside the opposing teams penalty area.

Darren Mattocks played at Akron University for two years. He helped lead the Zips to a national title his freshmen year. Mattocks scored 39 goals in just 47 appearances for Akron.

Each of these players brings something unique to the field. Saad is a clever striker, who frustrates defenders with quick off-the-ball movement. Sapong is a handful for any Major League Soccer defender. He is strong and disruptive. Mattocks is, perhaps, the finest athlete in MLS. All three possess above average skill on the ball and the ability to read the game well.

All three would be a better fit with Greg Berhalter's Columbus Crew than would Kei Kamara. They are young and would find many contemporaries within the Crew's roster. They each bring something to the forward position which the Crew do not currently get from their stable of strikers. With the exception of CJ Sapong, they have another year or two to develop who they are as players.

If the Black and Gold can work out a deal for one of these young players, and not lose too much of their allocation money in the process, Gregg Berhalter and his staff will still have enough wiggle room going into next season to sign two players of Frederico Higuain's stature.

Allocation money, cap room and an owner willing to add another moderately priced Designated Player in January or February would make the Columbus Crew a force in Major League Soccer.
Snatching-up one of the three young forwards above would be a coup for Gregg Berhalter as the 2014 season rushes to a close. If a trade is possible, Mr. Berhalter should make it...NOW! If the trade deadline has passed, then the Crew should make the same deal the day the season ends or as soon as the impenetrable rules of MLS allow.

*Update: The trade deadline is September 15th.

Edit: In case I wasn't clear, along with the first allocation spot the Crew would have to include some of their allocation money in order to get any of the three young players above.

More Difficult: Getting Young Players Significant Minutes in Major League Soccer

Or keeping them once they begin to show better than average MLS ability?

Answer: Keeping quality young players, especially those in which you have invested money and first team minutes.

This catch 22 effects the Columbus Crew no differently than any other team in MLS. The better the organization is at finding rough gems and then polishing those gems into a quality Major League Soccer players, the greater the chance the organization will lose that player.

Now, that is no different across sports. Quality is always in demand. But, the consistently competitive (striving for MLS Cup titles, entry into CCL and Supporters Shield trophies) teams, especially those without deep-pocketed owners willing to splash Dempsey/Bradley money on transfer fees and salaries, have one thing in common. They find ways to keep the majority of their talented twenty-something-year-olds in the fold.

The Columbus Crew possess the largest group of Major League Soccer emerging, young, tested and proven talent. The proof is in this season's results, a record of 8 wins 8 losses 9 ties. The proof is in the plus 3 goal differential. The proof is in the 1.4 goals per game average. And finally, the proof is in the collection of young talent which has played significant minutes this year, and in some cases for three years running.

Bernardo Anor--26yr.--Hard working, flexible midfielder who adds the occasional goal

Ethan Finlay--24yr--Dynamic wing/forward who is showing signs of future 15-20 goal seasons

Waylon Francis--23yr--Speedy defensive left back, good on the cross, likes to get forward

Eric Gehrig--26yr--Long time project who is beginning to "get it" Role player, but very valuable

Hector Jimenez--25yr--Right sided mid/defender, good fit for Berhalter's system

Justin Meram--25yr--Another potential 15 goal scorer

Tony Tchani--25yr--Holding mid, manager has kept the faith and is being rewarded

Will Trapp--21yr--Holding mid, good young player with great upside still untapped

Josh Williams--26yr--Tough role player. Still needs to improve decision making and skill set

The Columbus Crew are at Major League Soccer's version of the tipping point. If the Black and Gold can keep the above young players (along with Higuain, Parkhurst and Clark) during this off-season, they will be well on their way to making the 2015 playoffs.

Losing even two or three of the youngsters throws next season into doubt. Keeping all of them and then adding two or three Higuain level players with our available allocation dollars and next year's larger salary cap puts the Columbus Crew in striking distance of Supporters Shield contender.

The Crew's under 26 crowd is a hard won group. They are a group which can play in this league. To lose them now is to trust the 2015 season to unproven youngsters and hoped for chemistry amongst new signings, unproven talent and two or three veterans.

Never underestimate the value of MLS tested players. DC United is a perfect example. United signed a number of MLS veterans in the off-season. It took a couple weeks, but those MLS veterans in DC gelled and now they are in 1st place.

Genius, or Just Like the Rest of Us, Lucky on Occasion?

The man in the photo above is Gregg Berhalter. Mr. Berhalter is the coach and sporting director of the Columbus Crew.

The 2014 Columbus Crew have been enigmatic, even by Arthur Dent's (The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy) standards. Take for example the three game win streak at the beginning of the season. No, really, take it; because it was, up until two weeks ago, the only real black and gold highlight of the current Major League Soccer season.

That three game win streak was followed by a nineteen game stretch which included nine ties and eight losses. If you're following along and doing the math, the Columbus Crew's record during that nineteen game trek through the dark-matter filled universe was 2-9-8. 2-9-8 does not add up to 42, and so, is not the answer to the question: Life, the universe, and everything.

To be brutally honest (fiction is an honest man's escape hatch in a universe gone mad with screaming selfies dripping blood), 2-9-8 is the kind of record that finds a coach floating through the space time continuum known as the National Soccer Coaches Association of America Convention. 2-9-8 coach would be shaking hands, smiling, drinking beer and trying to convince at least one college athletic director that 2-9-8 was due to the stinginess of an aloof, absent billionaire team owner. Luckily, there is always one athletic director (usually drinking alone in his hotel suite while dreaming of division 1 national football championships), who switched from beer to whiskey on the second day of the convention. This particular athletic director is willing to listen to 2-9-8 coach's desperately passionate soliloquy on the next great tactical breakthrough in the beautiful game; because, this particular athletic director is not hearing a word of 2-9-8's desperately passionate soliloquy.

2-9-8, for Gregg Berhalter, was not a firing offense (no NSCAA slobbering for coach Berhalter this winter). Gregg Berhalter is a first year coach in the single entity league known as Major League Soccer. The honeymoon for coaches in Major League Soccer is a minimum of two years. Certainly, 2-9-8 is the stepping stone to being fired during an MLS coach's second year.

But, Gregg Berhalter and the Columbus Crew have done some unique things during year one of the Precourt/Berhalter era. First, they signed up with Time Warner Cable. (I won't get into this, it's not what this post is about, but there must be some beacon at the end of the stinking, rotten TWC tunnel which has yet to be set aflame) Second, Gregg Berhalter and his coaching staff have neglected to use 25% of the available salary cap this year. This decision, and its ramifications, is the motivation behind this post.

Why has Gregg Berhalter and the Columbus Crew decided to forego the chance to add one or two quality players to the roster? The fact that the Crew have been competitive throughout the season, even during the 2-9-8 stretch, casts a disparaging light on the lack of quality additions to the roster.

On an edition of Red Cards in Helltown I called the lack of signings "insulting." I stand by that assessment. It was clear after only 6-8 games that the Crew, under Gregg Berhalter's guidance were making significant progress in many ways. The team had adopted an attractive style of play. The team  was dictating the rhythm and pace of play. The defense and new goalie, Steve Clark, were keeping games close. Many of the young players on the team were showing glimpses of quality. The one thing that was so obviously missing was a proven goal scorer.

From the beginning of the season, the Crew have had the money to bring in a quality striker. $700,000 in salary cap space buys a darn good Major League Soccer goal-getter. Anthony Precourt may have needed to lay out some transfer money, but clearly, a goal every other game sort of player would have turned half of the ties during 2-9-8 into wins, and two or three of the losses would have been ties. The Columbus Crew would be at or near the top of the 2014 Eastern Division standings.

Why has Gregg Berhalter not brought in the type of player who would add to the significant progress he has already helped foster? Is there some sort of genius, Ford Prefect like plan to steal the Major League Soccer equivalent of the Heart of Gold spaceship powered by the Infinite Improbability Drive? I've begun to think...perhaps there is?

The first few months of the season I felt like Marvin, the Paranoid Android. Nothing could cheer me up. Losses and Ties piled atop each other. But, dammit, the stuff Gregg Berhalter was sprinkling on his team was working, he just needed a consistent striker. Where was the damn signing? Why weren't we using the $700,000 in cap space that may as well have been slowly burned two dollars every minute starting in March?

I don't feel quite like Marvin, the Paranoid Android anymore. What's changed? Why do I think the scarf around Gregg Berhalter's neck in the picture above is really a towel? And does he have a copy of the Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy in his pocket? Has Gregg Berhalter been in possession of The Heart of Gold spaceship all along?

I think...maybe so. Here's why.

During the upcoming off-season two new teams will join Major League Soccer, New York City Football Club and Orlando City Soccer Club. There will be an expansion draft. Only so many players on the Columbus Crew's roster can be protected. If past predicts future, in regards to the rules for the 2015 expansion draft, the Crew will be able to protect 11 players. On top of that, the Crew's home grown players are safe. DP's, Higuain, without a no-trade clause are automatically protected.

Now, take a look at who Gregg Berhalter has played this year. I mean consistently played.

Clark, Parkhurst, Gonzalez (just sold, but significance I'll get to in a minute), Francis, Gehrig, Williams, Jimenez, Anor, Meram, Finlay, Higuain, Trapp, Tchani, Arrieta and now Bedell and Schonfeld.

Not a whole lot of names on that list. Gregg Berhalter chose the players he felt worked best together in his possession/attacking-with-numbers system early on. He has stuck with them.

Let's break the list down and see if Berhalter can protect most or all of these players in the upcoming expansion draft.

Trapp--is home grown, he's safe
Higuain--a DP, if he doesn't have a no-trade clause he's safe
Gonzalez--sold to Serie-A side. Gained a boat load of allocation money, as well as over a million for the Crew's development academy. The importance of this should not be ignored. The leap in Gonzalez's value was not Berhalter's doing, but the timing could not have been better for the Crew's future going forward. It's almost as if the Infinite Improbability Drive was engaged.

That leaves 13 players who have played important minutes for the Columbus Crew this season. Gregg Berhalter can choose to protect 11 of the remaining players. Here's who he will protect. Make your own choices or reply and tell me mine are ridiculous.

Clark
Parkhurst
Francis
Gehrig
Williams
Jimenez
Anor
Meram
Finlay
Tchani
One of either Bedell or Schonfeld (Berhalter seems to favor Bedell)

The list of protected players is solid. They have won some games. They have scored some goals. They defend well. This list makes up a slightly above average Major League Soccer team. Most importantly, they play well together within the vision Gregg Berhalter has of the game.

If Gregg Berhalter had added two expensive players before and/or during the season the Crew would have to leave two of the above players unprotected...and those two players would surely be chosen in the draft. Why? because that list is mostly made up of young players who are just now starting to be above average Major League Soccer players. The kind of players who form the core of a title contending team.

Before the 2014 season started did Gregg Berhalter envision the season playing out the way it has? Did he know that he had young players who would make huge strides as the season wore on? Did he purposely hold onto the Crew's allocation spot? Did he know that Gonzalez would be sold, thus bringing on more allocation money and the kind of payday that will allow the Crew's Youth Academy to build a more dynamic development program? Does Gregg Berhalter possess The Heart of Gold spaceship?

Only Gregg Berhalter knows the answers to the above questions. Three things are certain.

1. The salary cap in Major League Soccer is going to possibly double going into next season.

2.The Columbus Crew are in a position to hold onto the core of the team during an offseason in which two new teams will strip 20 quality players from existing teams.

3. The Columbus Crew have the top allocation spot and a lot of allocation cash.

You really have to give credit to Gregg Berhalter. Only one year in and he has a core of players who can compete with almost any team in Major League Soccer. He has a war chest which is guaranteed to be the envy of most coaches in the league. Two or three quality, mature additions to the group, along with one or two more youthful pick-ups and the Columbus Crew will be a team to be reckoned with for years to come.

Quite possibly, besides the Heart of Gold spaceship, Gregg Berhalter has an army of dolphins at his disposal. With a trusty towel, The Hitchhiker's Guide and some black and gold clad friends he may just find the answer to the question: Life, the universe and everything. It's supposed to be 42, but I don't think it is. I think the answer will make itself known to the first person to discover the true meaning of Major League Soccer without going completely bat nuts crazy.

Oh, buy my novel, Helton Janglom's Template for Life. It's on Kindle. It's got soccer, poker, kids, craziness and not a little bit of Columbus between the covers. I keep writing these blog things for free. I'm poor and I need the money. Buy the book, you ungrateful wretches.

Good Day!

Podcast: Red Cards in Helltown - Episode XII

Rick Gethin and Larry Johnson sit down for an hour to talk soccer, MLS and the Columbus Crew. As every week, recorded live and left un-edited.

00:45 HEADLINES
• Tim Howard "retired" from international play
• Batotelli news, Liverpool
• Premier League results
• Tim Leiweke leaving MLSE
• How much more could 100m spend get you in MLS

16:40 COLUMBUS CREW
• Giancarlo Gonzalez transfer to Palermo
• Impact on final nine games
• Crew gaining momentum
• New badge to look like Hanover 96
• Berhalter's way, style bearing fruit
• What does "turning the corner" mean?
• Finlay and Meram are on fire, rare thing with Crew
• More players playing well than players playing bad
• 33:33 Berhalter audio

38:10 COLUMBUS CREW
• MLS standings, Toronto sinking
• Crew have say on PHI, NE making playoffs
• The Crew are in
• Quick look at the West
• Supporters' Shield race

48:10 QUICK HIT, WRAP UP
• Intentionally Vague: The MLS Rule Book piece - link
• Don Garber audio ("emerging league")
• Garber "emergence of our system"
• Wacky rules brings criticism
• Garber "no insidious plan"

Predictions: Crew Rd 25, Home v Houston

Big news today as reports have Giancarlo Gonzalez getting transferred away from the Columbus Crew, effective immediately. More on that to come but for now, Houston is in town tonight. Kickoff is 7:30 PM EST.

GAME NOTES
CLB: Gonzalez being out will have impact
CLB: 8 pts, +2 goal diff in last 6 games at home
CLB: Arrieta will probably start up top
HOU: 0 pts, -15 goal diff in last 6 away games
HOU: USMNT star Beasley likely to start tonight
HOU: Home form returning but still not a very good team

GAME PREDICTIONS
Percentage on the left is accuracy picking (WDL) 2014 Columbus Crew matches.

50% COLUMBUS DISPATCH ... COLUMBUS CREW
Adam Jardy writes that "anything less than a win will be a disappointment for the Crew."

50% WHOSCORED.COM ... DRAW
"Houston Dynamo are finally showing some signs of recovery, having won two of their last three MLS games," says Graham Ruthven. See's this one as a 1-1 draw.

42% MLSSOCCER ... COLUMBUS CREW
We've got the Crew in a landslide this week. 5 for a Crew victory, 1 draw.

42% WIN DRAW WIN ... COLUMBUS CREW
Largest margin in favor of the Crew thus far this season, 68% going their way. Houston only getting 8%. Wonder if this changes with Giancarlo news.

38% GOAL.COM ... COLUMBUS CREW
No preview (as per standard for the site now) and only one vote in the readers section, it's for the Crew to win 1-0.

33% BET365 ... COLUMBUS CREW
Even 1/1 odds today for the home side (5/2 draw, 13/5 away).

33% HOME TEAM ... COLUMBUS CREW

25% TABLE POSITION ... COLUMBUS CREW

--% WV HOOLIGAN ... (no pick)

--% MASSIVE REPORT ... (no pick)
Stay tuned to MR for the latest in Crew news on Gonzalez.

GAME THOUGHTS
Going to be a calmer, more business as usual feel to the match tonight after the big show last week against the LA Galaxy. Houston never really draws many fans but crowds have been better this season.

No doubt that the Crew should be favored in this one but it's certainly not as much as the predictions above indicate. Houston likes to lurk in the standings and look to be game for a late season push. After going a couple months with pretty much no points, over the last three weeks they have beat DC and beat Philly.

Questions for the match today revolve around Giancarlo (looking like he is in Italy), Ethan Finlay (can he keep up this ridiculous form) and whomever plays up top (need a goal from a forward today).

So this one will be closer but the Crew should still be the ones with 3 points when it ends.

Looks to be on the warm side tonight, possibly damp as well.

Finally, Finlay

Non-Penalty Goals + Assists per 90 (with more than 900 mins played)
1.06 Fabian Espindola (DC)
0.95 Robbie Keane (LA)
0.90 Clint Dempsey (SEA)
0.87 Joao Plata (RSL)
0.85 Ethan Finlay (CREW)
0.84 Maximiliano Urruti (PDX)
0.80 Luke Mulholland (RSL)
0.79 Gyasi Zardes (LA)
0.77 Bradley Wright-Phillips (NY)
0.76 Luis Silva (DC)
0.75 Thierry Henry (NY)

I've been tracking this for a few years now and it's been a while since the Crew have had a player find their way towards the top of the NPG+A per 90 minutes played this late on in the season. What Ethan Finlay has done is certainly notable from a league perspective but for folks that have watched the team closely in recent years it has a distinctly more satisfying feeling.

From reserve games to preseason grinds, Finlay is doing it the hard way. To some of us - that is the only way. The best way.

Here are some other players over 0.60 NPG+A per 90 over 900 minutes. There are a lot of good players here:

0.73 Obafemi Martins (SEA)
0.72 Jermain Defoe (TOR)
0.71 Cristian Maidana (PHI)
0.71 Brad Davis (HOU)
0.68 Justin Meram (CREW)
0.68 Diego Valeri (PDX)
0.67 Blas Pérez (DAL)
0.67 Chris Wondolowski (SJ)
0.65 Fabian Castillo (DAL)
0.63 Luke Moore (TOR)
0.63 Tesho Akindele (DAL)
0.61 Federico Higuain (CREW)
0.61 Lamar Neagle (SEA)
0.60 Harrison Shipp (CHI)
0.60 Chris Rolfe (DC)
0.60 Pedro Morales (VAN)
0.60 Landon Donovan (LA)