Updated Kramb, Replacement Level Story Telling

Kramb is a measurement for starting players on the Columbus Crew. It adds team Points per Game (PPG) earned while player is starting with his Goal Differential (GD) whilst on the pitch (similar to a +/- type metric that the NBA likes to mess around with).

EXAMPLE: D. Oduro
PPG + GD = KRAMB
1.21 + 0.14 = 1.35

KRAMB : Player Games Started
1.90 : Eddie Gaven 10
1.89 : Danny O´Rourke 9
1.75 : Agustín Viana 8
1.58 : Joshua Williams 12
1.40 : Chad Marshall 10
1.35 : Dominic Oduro 14
1.23 : Gláuber Berti 13

1.21 : Andy Gruenebaum 14 (Team)

1.14 : Jairo Obando Arrieta 7
1.07 : Federico Higuaín 14
0.86 : Tony Tchani 7
0.85 : Tyson Wahl 13
0.43 : Ben Speas 7
0.40 : Matías Sánchez 5

(not enough games)

1.00 : Kevan George 1
0.75 : Eric Gehrig 4
0.75 : Justin Meram 4
0.00 : Aaron Schoenfeld 1
-1.00 : Chad Barson 2

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KRAMB+

Above is my preferred way to look at how a player is contributing. It's not perfect but it gives you a great idea of who is contributing and who is not. That said, I ran across something last year that was odd with the Crew and it came by way of schedule difficulty (magnified with unbalanced schedule). As 2012 rolled along it became clear that certain players were trotted out against harder clubs. Makes sense, of course, that you try and play your better players against hard teams but this wasn't always the case with the team last year (more on that in future posts).

Are there some ways to incorporate schedule difficulty into the KRAMB number? I think so.

One way I like, is to take replacement level type view on each category KRAMB looks at and then add one more; Average Opponent Difficulty. We'll call it AOD.

Here is what the team looks like:
PPG ---- > 1.12
GD ---- > -0.01
Average Opponent Difficulty (AOD) ---- > 11.98

With that I can take any individuals numbers (when starting, only) and get a +/- above or below replacement.

EXAMPLE: D. Oduro
PPG ---- > 1.12
GD ---- > +1.14
AOD ---- > 12.00

D. Oduro vs. replacement
PPG ---- > 0.00
GD ---- > +0.15
AOD ---- > -0.02

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KRAMB+ for D. Oduro = +0.13
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Here are the rest of the players:

KRAMB+ : NAME : GAMES STARTED
+0.78 : Matías Sánchez 5*
+0.49 : Tony Tchani 7*
+0.18 : Eddie Gaven 10
+0.16 : Tyson Wahl 13*
+0.13 : Dominic Oduro 14
-0.01 : Andy Gruenebaum 14

-0.15 : Federico Higuaín 14

-0.22 : Danny O´Rourke 9
-0.37 : Gláuber Berti 13
-0.39 : Joshua Williams 12
-0.51 : Ben Speas 7
-0.62 : Chad Marshall 10
-0.79 : Jairo Obando Arrieta 7
-1.10 : Agustín Viana 8

(not enough games)

+4.78 : Kevan George 1
+2.28 : Chad Barson 2
+1.78 : Aaron Schoenfeld 1
+1.53 : Eric Gehrig 4
+1.53 : Justin Meram 4

*I've put an astrisk next to some of the players to point out that they jump way up when taking opponent difficulty in to account.

Something else I found very interesting is that the guys at the bottom who don't have enough starts yet in order to be considered. All of them are ridiculously high numbers. There is a story to be told here.

How exactly does this tell a story?

Well, the Crew started the year off with an easier level of competition but as things progressed the schedule got slightly harder. As they tend to do, injuries started to pile up as well. This meant that the Crew had to put non-first team-ers into the starting line up. The increased level of competition drives players like Gehrig, Sanchez, Barson and Meram way high and, in turn, driven some of the other players down.

Barson, for example, has a loss and a draw (0.50 PPG) on his record to go along with his -1.50 GD. Not looking good there but take in to consideration his opponent level in those two games; Houston (6th) and Philly (9th).

Thus is the tale of the once and future Crew. I wrote a lot about it earlier this year:

Bottled Up, Higuaín

The Crew are only three games away from the middle of the season. More of this to come. I know it's dabbling a bit in the dark arts but I think there are a lot of things here that are valuable. Thanks for reading.

Infiltrating the Orange Beast

Rick Gethin and I went down to Dayton to see the Dutch Lions take on the Columbus Crew. Rick wrote about it:

Infiltrating the Orange Beast...

You can read my preview to the game as well as more about Major League Soccer's relationship with United Soccer League here.

You might not know that because the Crew didn't bother to cover the game even though every other MLS team is covering these matches. Maybe the Crew are too good to bother with it?

Justin Meram ‏@JustinMeram
Good battle tonight in Dayton with the boys. A tough game to get up for but we battled and came away with a result. Open cup Wed.

Game ended 4:4. Interesting, more fans came out to Beavercreek HS to watch this game than came out to Crew Stadium to watch these two play in the 100th US Open Cup match about a week ago (1600 / 1300). Of course it is not Justin Meram's fault but I do believe it is representative of club temperament. Perhaps the Crew organization should try and "get up for" these games and prove the are the better side before dismissing them. Both in result and in attendance.

Crew Rd 14: Meltdown

The Philadelphia Union scored in the 25th, 29th and 31st minutes during yesterday's match against the Columbus Crew. The game ended up at 3:0 but that short six minute flurry of goals is only part of the story.



1ST HALF
MLS midweek matches bunched up near the US Open Cup can lead to some flat affairs and this one started out no different. Crew looked like a slightly slower version of their hyperactive previous two games and the Union soaked it up... just like the Crew's opponents in the last two games.

Difference this week was that Philly looked to have prepared well. Letting the Crew run all around until they made a mistake and then pounce on the counter.

25th: It worked for the most part. The first goal was set up by Matias Sanchez as he gave away a horrible pass to Philly's Brian Carroll. From there Carroll ripped off a 40 yard shot that deflected off of Eric Gehrig and in for a goal. Funny note here is that Carroll raised his hand knowingly right after the deflection.

29th: From a Le Toux corner, Carroll was able to flick it on to Williams for a flying sideways kick (technical term) goal. Meram was caught doing God-knows-what. By "God", I mean the one he facetiously mentioned having to pray too for more goals after last week's Houston match.

31st: Glauber and Tyson Wahl lazily played the ball to Le Toux who streaked down the sideline and got a good cross off to Connor Casey dome for the goal.



The final 15 minutes of the half saw a Crew side broken.

2ND HALF : THE MELTDOWN
Lots of Changes for the Crew, particularly in defense. The starting back four of:

LB Wahl : CB Glauber : CB Gehrig : RB Barson

became

LB Barson : CB Glauber : CB George : RB Gehrig

All totaled, three positional changes and a subbed player. Grizzled soccer fans that go back to the old NASL days never even saw some thing like this.

It's immature behavior from the Crew coaching staff. Not only did they overreact, they also managed to embarrass the players and the entire organization.

Needless to say but the Crew just spun their wheels with this bizarre set of changes while Philly sort of played at half speed.

Eventually the game fizzled out.

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FINAL THOUGHTS
Warzycha should face severe punishment from the organization for this. I realize this is Major League Soccer but to make changes like that is an absolute lunacy and borders on disrespecting the game itself. I wouldn't even dare do this playing a video game.

These are professional athletes. They were having a bad game. It happens.

Among the backline changes we also were treated to another sub, Ben Speas. Ben had a quiet half with 44 touches 27 passes (6 incomplete). Ben was somewhat curiously pulled for Aaron Schoenfeld. I had seen Ben play in the previous Reserve match, he seemed up to speed.

I believe Ben is being misused and under developed. He is more of a Central Midfielder than wide, where he is now placed, and the Crew can't seem to leave him in for a full 90 minutes.

Here is a summary of his starts with the Crew going back to last year:

Mins Played : Date : Game : Result
45 : 6/5/2013 : CLB @ PHI : L 0-3
65 : 4/20/2013 : CLB @ CHI : L 0-1
72 : 4/14/2013 : CLB @ MTL : T 1-1
85 : 4/6/2013 : PHI @ CLB : T 1-1
88 : 3/23/2013 : CLB @ DC : W 2-1
79 : 3/16/2013 : SJ @ CLB : T 1-1
90 : 3/9/2013 : CLB @ VAN : L 1-2
64 : 10/28/2012 : TOR @ CLB : W 1-2

In only one of those games did he finish a full 90 minutes. This can be frustrating for a player, even when injured.

What position was Justin Meram playing against Philly?

From a result perspective I don't put too much into heat maps. Sometimes players are asked to play all over the pitch. But in the case where you have two central defensive mids, seeing a right mid with a map like this raises an eyebrow and further confirms that he is a attacking player and not a midfielder (nor has he been trained properly).

I like Meram, but it does look like he was playing way out of position. It likely had an effect on Higuain, Speas, Sanchez, and Tchani. I confirmed Meram's more central roll over at ESPN FC as well...



What position is that? Now, here is Federico Higuain's heat map from the same data source. They appear to be playing in the same roll.



I'm probably digging too much into things here. The data before the three goals would be more valuable.

As for after the first of the three, what fans could see is a complete deflation of the squad and it highlights the fact that important leaders are missing in Josh Williams, Chad Marshall, Danny O'Rourke and Eddie Gaven.

Recent results have put the Crew in a tough spot.

Predictions: Crew (A) v Union

Good Afternoon,

The Columbus Crew are in Philadelphia tonight to take on the Union. Kickoff is at 7:30 PM EST.

NOTES
-CLB: Week 1 starters in Marshall, Viana, Gaven and Williams are out.
-PHI: 2-2-2 at home, 7 GF 10 GA
-CLB: 3-2-2 away, 10 GF 7 GA
-CLB: 5 pts in last 5 LLWDD
-PHI: 7 pts in last 5 WLWLD
-Fixture earlier this year saw a 1:1 draw.

PREDICTIONS

Since it is a midweek game there are less predictions to choose from but we’ll start off with Bet 365. Normal Home/Draw/Away odds see Philly favored at near evens 6/5 and Crew 12/5. Draw sits at 11/5. Again, standard line here. Which means…

Win Draw Win likes the crap out of the Crew here. Large stake on an Away CLB win (2:1) with the ‘your vote’ feature swinging Crew as well (50% Crew win, 20% Union). That said, it appears that not much attention is there for this match.

Patrick Guldan, Managing Editor of Massive Report, thinks the Union have this one by a 2:1 scoreline. “The Union can exploit defensive gaffes and Glauber and Gehrig are prone to the occasional marking errors.”

Adam Jardy, Columbus Dispatch beat writer, is clearly leaning Crew… “there is a sense that the Crew offers more upside than the Union.” Jardy’s ‘lean’ has been pretty reliable this year.

No picks from MLSsoccer.com or WV Hooligan for this game as of yet. Will update if they pop up.

MY THOUGHTS

Philly is a below average team with a hot goal scorer in Jack McInerney. A by-product of a team like this is inconsistency in results, which is true here with the Union.

I like the Crew in this one but there is some danger that attitudes may change if they rip off a bunch of shots early and nothing goes in. Even with that, having a hard time believing Philly can win.

Road gets pretty rough over the next month in a half. Important 3pts out there. Enjoy the game.

Drawing Fans, Home and Away

Win at Home, Draw Away. Right?

MLS is different. There is not any relegation for poor performing clubs. From an operational perspective who cares who wins or loses, just as long as the show is good.

With that, the 'real' table isn't so much Wins and Losses, but more about how many fans you can draw. MLS seems to like to parade around with impressive average attendance but most know that a shorter schedule than their MLB, NBA and NHL counterparts means less top line revenue.

How about we look at the 'real MLS table', ticket sales.

Average Home Draw : Team
39066 : Seattle Sounders FC
21661 : Los Angeles
21254 : Montreal Impact
20674 : Portland Timbers
19747 : Vancouver Whitecaps
19420 : Kansas City
19120 : Toronto FC
19098 : Houston
18176 : Real Salt Lake

17497 : Philadelphia Union

17166 : New York Red Bulls
14898 : FC Dallas
14175 : Colorado
13762 : DC United
12840 : Columbus
12679 : New England
12108 : Chicago
10409 : San Jose
8045 : Chivas USA

Let's not stop there. Most know the "home draw". MLS like's to parade that sucker around. How about we look at the "away draw". As in, how do clubs draw when playing away. Does the Crew Black and Gold matter?

Away Draw : Team
21333 : New England
20049 : Montreal Impact
19954 : Los Angeles
19715 : San Jose
19263 : Chicago
18428 : FC Dallas
18249 : Toronto FC
18175 : Kansas City
18100 : Portland Timbers

17888 : DC United

17451 : Seattle Sounders FC
17222 : Houston
17063 : New York Red Bulls
16905 : Chivas USA
15462 : Colorado
14469 : Philadelphia Union
14417 : Columbus
13605 : Real Salt Lake
13425 : Vancouver Whitecaps

Not really.

Actually, the Crew are the only club to linger around the bottom in both home and away, which explains what league commissioner Don Garber likes to visit Columbus.

Not sure why New England draws that much away. I'm sure it has to do with playing popular expansion teams like Seattle. Not going to bother looking it up at this point in the season. They are an outlier. Moving along.

Consider this your Home and Away results.

(Attendance data via ESPN FC through May 26th)

Crew Defensive Middle Fielding

Now that the Crew are 13 games into the 2013 MLS season I figure it is as good as time as any to take a look at the defensive midfielder engine in Robert Warzycha's 4-2-3-1 formation.

It's a defensive focused formation, no doubt. This is Warzycha we are talking about.

To date, the formation has succeeded in only allowing an even 1.00 goals per game. If you dig a little bit deeper you'll also see that this team has not allowed more that two goals on the year. Going back to last year, it has only happened three times. To this degree, the Crew have been successful.

Also, it should be mentioned... very Polish.

So, how about the DM's the Crew trot out every week? There have been a few of them and they have a decent amount of minutes played of which to compare 2013 players. Let's start there.

Mins Played : Player
764 : Danny O'Rourke
585 : Tony Tchani
555 : Agustin Viana
374 : Matias Sanchez
106 : Kevan George
20 : Konrad Warzycha

Right off the bat I'm going to take Kevan and Konrad out. Not enough time. That leaves us with four dudes. First up, let's take a look at player ratings by various outlets around the internets.

Castrol League Rank Percentile : Player
36% : Agustin Viana
42% : Danny O'Rourke
47% : Tony Tchani
64% : Matias Sanchez

Interesting here that Viana jumps both Tchani and O'Rourke. Now let's take a look at WhoScored.com's ranking. Who is "Who Scored"? Well, look them up. They have access to all the Opta data and a lot of time on their hands.

WhoScored.com Percentile : Player
32% : Agustin Viana
70% : Matias Sanchez
75% : Danny O'Rourke
76% : Tony Tchani

Well, well. Viana stays at the top, followed up by Matias Sanchez. Next up are my player ratings. HELLTOWN PLAYER RATINGS.

Helltown Rating Percentile : Player
36% : Danny O'Rourke
44% : Tony Tchani
47% : Agustin Viana
57% : Matias Sanchez

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AVERAGE THEM UP

If you average the league rank of each of these Crew DMs, here is what you get:

38% : Agustin Viana
51% : Danny O'Rourke
56% : Tony Tchani
64% : Matias Sanchez

Pretty clear cut right? We've done the homework here. Three different player ratings gives us an accurate picture of who should start. Ok.

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Wait. What about opponent difficulty when playing? Gosh, I almost forgot.

Avg Opponent Rank : Name
10.0 : Matias Sanchez
10.8 : Tony Tchani
13.1 : Danny O'Rourke
14.0 : Agustin Viana

Thing here is that O'Rourke and Viana have played against the weakest competition. What this suggests is that the reason they are rated highest is because they have played crappy teams.

...and here is where Opta and most other player rating systems fail. They don't take into consideration the quality level of the opposing player.

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I'm working on it though. Draw your own conclusions on which DM should play this weekend. For me?

Well, I'm going to keep crunching the numbers.

Revisiting the Garber-McCullers Press Conf

With The New York Cosmos announcing that Emirates Airline has agreed to a sponsorship deal to become the jersey-front sponsor of the club today I felt like revisiting something I wrote about over at Massive Report about linking up the leagues.

You can find that full post HERE.

In going back to the Garber / McCullers press conference I found myself paying more attention to Don Garber's mannerisms when Mark McCullers was talking.

If you start at around 9:00 minutes of the video you see McCullers finishing up his update on the three goals the club set out to achieve well over two years ago now (jersey sponsor, 10k season tickets, stadium naming rights). Note, if you will, Garber's reaction when McCullers turns a page in his sheet of notes.



Beyond that, here is the transcript that follows. The reason it is pulled out is because Mark McCullers repeats his 2013 sales pitch that includes the potential to host the MLS Cup at Crew Stadium.

9:18

"Uh, I've said before that I believe that this could be one of the most important years in the history of this club and I still believe that.

Uh, with USA Mexico with the Analyst Business Summit, ahum, with goal 10k, uh there's increased discussion in the training complex and oh by the way, I think our team has the chance to host the MLS Cup right here at Crew Stadium uhh, in uhh, in December.

So it's still ah exciting period for us. Ummm, a lot of hard work still to be done but we made great progress uhmm and I want to give a shout out to our staff uhumm just a tremendous group of professionals that I have the privilege to work with every day, we really make these things happen.

Um... so.

It's the Crew business update."

Crew Rd 13: Can't Win at Home.

The Columbus Crew can't manage to muster up a goal outside a finished penalty from Federico Higuain. Ends up as a draw at home and with it continue crummy home record in 2013.

1ST HALF
Columbus came out pressuring the Houston Dynamo all over the pitch. In the 18 yd box? Higuain makes a 30 yard sprint on the Dynamo 'keeper that had possession and flicks it to a nearby teammate. Dynamo defenders passing around the back four? Jairo Arrieta chasing the ball like a dog in the park chasing all the balls in the park.

Somewhere around the 30th minute Justin Meram mistimes a tackle on Kofi Sarkodie, Tyson Wahl decides to run in another direction, Matias Sanchez is lost and Tony Tchani comes trotting in his always on 3rd gear. Sarkodie makes a nice cross to an open Warren Creavalle who athletically shoots it into the opposite corner for a goal.

The match settled from that point a little. Crew players calmed down an the match finally too some shape.

2ND HALF
By this point the Dynamo had to make two subs, due in large part to the Crew's hyper active play.

The chances seemed endless for the Crew. In fact, they were. 22 total shots on the evening for them. None of them, save for the penalty that Higuain took, went in.

The game ended 1:1 and the Crew once again go away frustrated with lost points at home.

FINAL THOUGHTS
- 22 shots an no open play goals from the Crew. Only two open play goals at home on the year and already six games in.

- Houston played similarly to recent previous opponents. Columbus is in a weird hyper active type mode of playing. Run, run, run.

- Josh Williams was an odd scratch before the match. Reports have him not starting due to a sore calf. This isn't something very 'Josh Williams' like. We may never really know the real reason for him not starting.

- Columbus is in 6th place in the East (regardless of how you slice it, PPG or just pts). This is where I think they will probably wind up.

- Run, run, run, run.

Predictions: Crew (H) v Houston

Good Morning,

Columbus hosts the Houston Dynamo this evening. Kickoff is 7:30 PM, 6:30 PM Texas time.

GAME NOTES
-HOU: missing key players to international duties, Brad Davis and Oscar Boniek Garcia
-CLB: 2013 year without Eddie Gaven starts tonight.
-CLB: Higuain featured in midweek US Open Cup match
-CLB: Marshall and Viana listed as out
-HOU: Bobby Boswell serving suspension
-HOU: WWLLD in last 5 (7 pts)
-CLB: WLLWD in last 5 (7 pts)

PREDICTIONS

Win Draw Win, the sports betting aggregate site, is showing a large stake on a 0:1 Away (Houston) win. The famously accurate "Your Vote" section lines up with 44% of the vote going Houston and 20% to Columbus.

Reason for the play on Houston is for the near even odds over at Bet365 for the Crew (6/5). Draw is at 11/5 and Houston 12/5.

Over at Drew Epperley's WV Hooligan site he writes; "Life without Eddie Gaven for the Crew begins this weekend." Epperley thinke both clubs have the fire power but it should wind up level at 1:1.

Voting at Goal.com has Houston heavy. Nobody votes on their previews, however. This week I entered a scoreline of 6 to 6.

Over at MLSsoccer.com the Pick 'em club favors Houston (3 of 6 votes) over the Crew (1 of 6).

Patrick Guldan, Managing Editor of Massive Report has a good right out this morning previewing the game. He believes that the missing players on the Houston side creates favorable match ups for the attacking Crew players. He's calling it 2:1 for the Crew.

No notes from Adam Jardy this week. Not because he doesn't have any but because I am away from my paper right now and the Dispatch's online presence is awful.

MY THOUGHTS AND PREDICTIONS

Beat MLS by MLSing

With all the players Houston is missing, I'm thinking it's more Dominic Kinnear vs. Crew players this week. You've got to like the Dynamo's chances there. If anything Houston knows how to pull out a draw in these types of games.

For the Crew? They need to press and try and take advantage of a weakened Eastern Conference foe. If Columbus tries to step back and play 'their game' they will lose. Houston (Kinnear) is famous for breaking apart teams that try to do that (sometimes violently).

We'll see. Might not be pretty again this week, true believers, but it will be rather evenly matched.

Enjoy the game.