Growing Attendance Problem in MLS

Early season MLS action can best be described as an exhibition. On the "Joe Sports sport's calendar," it falls right in the middle of March Madness, the start of MLB and the NBA and NHL playoffs. You could say that there just isn't time for regular season soccer games, but that's nothing but excuses. Soccer fans in the US are watching EPL games, Liga MX and La Liga and droves. "Joe Sport" is a casual fan, not a soccer fan.

MLS has a problem, in that regard. They just want to nestle into the regular sport's fan here in the United States yet try and play the world game. It's a fence that the league has always had a hard time straddling. And now that the league is launching into rapid expansion mode, there is a hyper focus on the actual health of existing teams.

Read more HERE

Fan engagement, attendance and TV ratings are key components of a successful league. MLS is failing on the latter two.

Highlighted in yellow below are the games of which there were barely 10k people show up. MLS, like other leagues in the US, uses tickets distributed number. The problem the league is having is that the distance between that number in butts in seats is ridiculously off.

Result...Home..v..Away : Venue
3-3...Philadelphia..v..Montreal : Talen Energy Stadium
2-0...Houston..v..San Jose : BBVA Compass Stadium
2-1...Portland..v..Vancouver : Providence Park
2-2...New England..v..D.C. : Gillette Stadium
2-0...New York..v..Columbus : Red Bull Arena
1-0...FC Dallas..v..Sporting KC : Toyota Stadium
1-3...Real Salt Lake..v..Atlanta : Rio Tinto Stadium
1-2...New York City FC..v..Orlando City SC : Yankee Stadium
0-3...Los Angeles..v..Seattle : StubHub Center
1-0...Minnesota..v..Colorado : TCF Bank Stadium

Here are a few more shots from the weekend. This is a problem for a league looking to expand into more markets. It's possible that these images could even be used by communities to argue against bringing a team in. Not to mention blowing holes into the $150 million expansion fee MLS is asking.

Things aren't adding up. At some point, just like announced attendance figures need to be closer to how many folks show up, MLS hype has to match their reality.

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I recently looked at how much MLS inflates attendance by market HERE.

Drawing Fans, Home and Away

Win at Home, Draw Away. Right?

MLS is different. There is not any relegation for poor performing clubs. From an operational perspective who cares who wins or loses, just as long as the show is good.

With that, the 'real' table isn't so much Wins and Losses, but more about how many fans you can draw. MLS seems to like to parade around with impressive average attendance but most know that a shorter schedule than their MLB, NBA and NHL counterparts means less top line revenue.

How about we look at the 'real MLS table', ticket sales.

Average Home Draw : Team
39066 : Seattle Sounders FC
21661 : Los Angeles
21254 : Montreal Impact
20674 : Portland Timbers
19747 : Vancouver Whitecaps
19420 : Kansas City
19120 : Toronto FC
19098 : Houston
18176 : Real Salt Lake

17497 : Philadelphia Union

17166 : New York Red Bulls
14898 : FC Dallas
14175 : Colorado
13762 : DC United
12840 : Columbus
12679 : New England
12108 : Chicago
10409 : San Jose
8045 : Chivas USA

Let's not stop there. Most know the "home draw". MLS like's to parade that sucker around. How about we look at the "away draw". As in, how do clubs draw when playing away. Does the Crew Black and Gold matter?

Away Draw : Team
21333 : New England
20049 : Montreal Impact
19954 : Los Angeles
19715 : San Jose
19263 : Chicago
18428 : FC Dallas
18249 : Toronto FC
18175 : Kansas City
18100 : Portland Timbers

17888 : DC United

17451 : Seattle Sounders FC
17222 : Houston
17063 : New York Red Bulls
16905 : Chivas USA
15462 : Colorado
14469 : Philadelphia Union
14417 : Columbus
13605 : Real Salt Lake
13425 : Vancouver Whitecaps

Not really.

Actually, the Crew are the only club to linger around the bottom in both home and away, which explains what league commissioner Don Garber likes to visit Columbus.

Not sure why New England draws that much away. I'm sure it has to do with playing popular expansion teams like Seattle. Not going to bother looking it up at this point in the season. They are an outlier. Moving along.

Consider this your Home and Away results.

(Attendance data via ESPN FC through May 26th)

7121

The Chivas USA home opener at the Home Depot Center had a historically low turnout and the Crew are part to blame.

The official attendance number of "7,121" garnered the attention of a number of independent soccer writers. In fact Grant Wahl, arguably the most well known US soccer voice, tweeted out there that the number was probably half the 7121 reported.

For a league that sees itself challenging the worlds best in a decade's time you bet this is an issue. MLS Commissioner Don Garber has already addressed it by stating that he will check back to see if it is still a problem in June/July.

But is this a Chivas USA problem? Perhaps it is a scheduling problem? Even a Crew problem? A little bit of all the above?

PREDICTION: DROP IN MLS TICKET SALES, 2013

Major League Soccer is looking down the barrel of a year over year loss in ticket sales. For years now the league has been touting incredible growth. Most of that growth was due to the expansion in teams. Think of it the same way that McDonald's or Walmart measure growth. As long as they are expanding, they are growing the top line.

There are even an expanding number of former sharp independent voices joining the MLS choir to prove the soul sucking Walmart/Target expansion wins theory of successful brick and mortar business.

For a professional sports league that dabbles in the dark arts of a single entity system they seem acutely unaware that at some point the expansion has to stop. For other North American based leagues it is around 30 teams. MLS seems to think 20-24 is a good number. This means expansion is going to slow and the last few spots are going to be smartly chosen (at least as smartly as Don Garber thinks he is).

This year marks the first year in a few that the league isn't growing. Teams are the same as last year. With that in mind, here is attendance numbers from the first 9 games last year as compared to this year:

2012 : 183,182
2013 : 174,696

That's about a -5% drop over last year. Take out Seattle from both years and it is closer to a -7% drop.

THE CREW

It's no secret that Garber wants to see improvement in Columbus as far as ticket sales. He even kicked off a "Dare to be Massive" sales campaign last year here in town. It helped bring attendance back up from the wilderness of record lows in 2011 - but certainly not back to even the middle of the league in 2012.

This year will likely be more of the same for Columbus in terms of gate. 13-15k a home game seems about right. That's not a bad thing. Games are enjoyable. The stadium is great, plenty of space. Friendly atmosphere. But for a league that has ambitions of leading the world? Far from lofty expectations.

AWAY ATTENDANCE

How the team draws away is important. Last year the Crew 13th in away aggregate ticket sales (slightly better than the 14th for home sales).

2012 Aggregate Draw Away : Team

459,436 : Los Angeles

337,001 : San Jose
335,088 : Portland Timbers
333,635 : Chicago
333,445 : Toronto FC
333,221 : Real Salt Lake
322,058 : Philadelphia Union
321,769 : Vancouver Whitecaps

314,842 : Kansas City
314,189 : New York Red Bulls
312,595 : Colorado
310,014 : DC United

302,712 : Columbus
300,984 : FC Dallas
293,116 : Houston
291,203 : New England
288,609 : Chivas USA
285,955 : Montreal Impact
283,567 : Seattle Sounders FC

The same teams seem to show up at the bottom no matter how you slice the data. Crew, Dallas, New England, Chivas. Interesting to seem Montreal and Seattle* at the bottom, but then again; This is a league obsessed with growth. Not many fans in away cities care about new teams. Regardless, the bottom part of the league is not a group you want your name in but yet the Crew are there.

Low attendance in a league unhealthily obsessed with ticket sales is a reality the Crew are going to have to live with for now.

14464

Chivas USA pulled 14,464 at the Home Depot Center last year during opening weekend when the faced Houston. Double what the Chivas/Crew pulled this year.

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*[UPDATED: Seattle is low because they cannot play themselves away. They inflate everyone's numbers. If you take out Seattle from each team's away draw it looks like this:

359,526 : Los Angeles
333,635 : Chicago
314,189 : New York Red Bulls
310,014 : DC United
294,736 : Toronto FC
291,203 : New England
285,955 : Montreal Impact
283,659 : Philadelphia Union
283,567 : Seattle Sounders FC
268,636 : Portland Timbers
267,910 : Kansas City
266,051 : Vancouver Whitecaps
264,401 : Columbus
262,229 : FC Dallas
259,752 : San Jose
255,553 : Real Salt Lake
254,812 : Houston
249,675 : Chivas USA
235,175 : Colorado

This is really interesting because what you are left with without Seattle's CenturyLink attendance is big population centers which means, for example, former Chicagoan's living in a new city must have or retain a connection with the team.

Also, the numbers don't jump as much with out the Sounder effect. Also, the LA drop without SEA. They must love them some Becks up there.]

Crew Crowds, Best Since '07

The Crew sales folks have been hittin' it hard this year and getting butts in seats. Their focused initiatives like extra emails, community involvement, social media initiatives, traditional advertising and plain old phone calls are paying off, but are those the main drivers to this years increased sales?

Nope, but I'll get to that in one sec. For now, let's take a look at what Crew attendance looks like by year according to Major League Soccer Fact and Record Book for perspective.

Year: Avg Attendance : Winning %

1996 : 18,950 : 34 %
1999 : 17,696 : 41
2001 : 17,511 : 50
2002 : 17,429 : 39
2004 : 16,872 : 40
2003 : 16,250 : 33
2000 : 15,451 : 34
2007 : 15,230 : 30
1997 : 15,043 : 38

2012 : 14,858 : 40

2008 : 14,662 : 57
2010 : 14,642 : 47
2009 : 14,175 : 43
2006 : 13,294 : 25
2005 : 12,916 : 34
1998 : 12,274 : 47
2011 : 12,185 : 38

Big jump over last year (2011 was the worst attended year in Crew history). Impressive increase? What gives? Well, lots of help from Don Garber, MLS Commish. A couple visits and a World Cup qualifier date announced. The Crew also made a baseball promotions hire in Clark Beacom halfway through last year. Just to name a few things.

But could it be more than that? What's the biggest driver to selling tickets? Winning? They say winning solves everything, right?

Well, winning helps but look at the list above, now back down here... lots of pretty bad teams above some really good ones. But, in fact (on average) less folks come out to winning years. 38% (low) winning percentage for years with ticket sales better then 2012, 42% for those less (even without 2008's 57%).

There are a lot of metrics one could pull for this sort of thing. I know that MLB and NFL have folks dedicated to figuring out and forecasting ticket sales in just about every major US city. Hell, they probably know your middle name and what your vice is. MLS though? Not so much. Maybe I could tie the success of Buckeye football teams to Crew attendance. How about unemployment rates? Weather?

It could be anything really, but what it comes down to is how likable the club is. Look at the Brian McBride years. Only one falls out (1998). This year's club has a group of players that are likable. And a bunch of them from the region.

Having popular players may not always satisfy the dedicated fan, supporter, reporter or blogger but it will put butts in seats (or on benches, as it were).

The picture above is from a Columbus Monthly piece by Taylor Swope. Photo credit goes to Tessa Berg. Excellent stuff.

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Please note where current Crew coach, Robert Warzycha's teams sit. Eric Wynalda just moved to Atlanta to further his career in coaching (over broadcasting). He wants in. I say, let him in.

Crew Candle Part 1: MLS Eras and Most Successful Franchise in History

The players participating in this year’s U17 World Cup were born after the formation of Major League Soccer on December 17th, 1993.

In 1996 Major League Soccer held its first game. This is the sixteenth year of competition.

ALL TIME MLS TABLE:
There have only been a brave few that have tried to make sense of MLS history. Some say that it is the first step down towards insanity so before I jumped in I looked for others that made attempts at classifying it. The best I’ve found is Dave Clark’s piece titled The Eras of MLS (Sounder at Heart, August 13, 2009). In it he divided up MLS history into 3 parts, aptly labeling them 1.0, 2.0 and 3.0. A good read.

After spending some time with the MLS history I found that it might be served better with the inclusion of two additional eras. With Respect, they happen during Mr. Clark’s 2.0 Stable State years.

You can click on each era below to see each team and its average rank in the table for those years. I've combined the conferences and for the early years I excluded “shoot out” wins and losses and turned them in to Draws so as to compare seasons as apples to apples and not cheese to chalk.

1996-1999: League Inception, (North) Americanization

2000, 2001: Dark Age, Failed Table Changes and Expansion

2002, 2003: Middle Age, Contraction and Stability

2004-2006: Donavan Dempsey, Birth of United States Soccer

2007-Present: Modern Era, Designated Player

Between Dave Clark’s post and Wikipedia you can get a good understanding of league history. If you would like my thoughts and argument on MLS Eras you can click HERE and read descriptions under each table. Just click the "next" button on the upper right to travel through history.

If you click on the Modern Era link, you'll notice that the Crew are the winningest franchise since 2007 and have the most hardware. In that time the team has not only racked up the most points but also made the playoffs 3 times (2008, 2009, 2010), won a MLS Cup (2008) and the Supporters' Shield (2008, 2009) trophy twice.

One of the things I looked at in cracking up MLS history into parts was average league attendance per game. Maybe it's a good topic for a post another day. I've only got one day off work here! One note, 2011 attendance is projected with 50% of the season in the books already.

“Crew Candle” refers to my frustration with Crew fans as of late. They’ve turned their back on the team this year to the tune of -28% less fans attending games this year over last. I’m burning a candle for this year’s team in hopes that other fans might see it and realize that they are watching a good team on a historic run.