Sunday, February 6, 2011

The Computer Machine

The Super Bowl is on in about an hour, so I gotta type fast. I'm here to tell you that I am experimenting with what's called "crowd theory". It's complicated, but basically it means that the average prediction of the masses will be accurate. It could be guessing the weight of a goat to predicting the score of the biggest event in the United states. Average always wins. More predictions, more accurate the average.

To save you from drama... the "crowd" predicts Green Bay to win. What's that score going to be?

24.7 to 21.7 Green Bay Packers win. Place your bets now.

I pulled 67 predictions from all over the web to get that. From ESPN "experts" to yahoo kids.

Notable predictions:

Mine: 35 - 10. Packers in blowout, because it is on turf indoors

Las Vegas: 24 - 21. Packers, crowd theory in full effect

Madden 11: 20 - 24, Steelers. 21 - 20. Packers, Over 2k simulations.

RjTheMetalhead: 17 - 12. Random dude.

Lastly; the most common football score in all NFL history is 20 to 17. Insert your favorite team as the victor.

I see one major theme here... close game. Be careful "crowd" because this could be wishful thinking. I think it will be a blowout because we, as a country, are due for one.

So, bottom line... Packers win in a tight one. Enjoy the game!

PS. More stats:

Median Diff: 6 pts.

Avg Total Score: 46

Median Avg Score: 52

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