Friday, May 13, 2011

Castrol Index and Me

(Further information on the Castrol Index)

Below is how Castrol has the Columbus Crew through April. I multiplied by 10 so as to match my system. Also to eliminate going two deep past the decimal point. It makes little statistical difference to go even to one (which is why I don't use it on the right).

87.3 Chad Marshall
84.7 Eddie Gaven
84.5 William Hesmer
81.7 Julius James
76.1 Robbie Rogers
73.9 Sebastian Miranda
72.1 Rich Balchan
69.8 Kevin Burns
68.4 Emmanuel Ekpo
59.3 Dejan Rusmir
59.1 Dilly Duka
57.0 Emilio Renteria
54.7 Andres Mendoza
51.9 Tommy Heinemann
42.7 Jeff Cunningham
36.3 Bernardo Anor


And here is Helltown's list. I expanded it out the tenths of a point so It seems smart like Castrol's. I could take it out to 1000th of a point if I must. I'm kidding. Yet... I could.

78.6 Eddie Gaven
78.1 Robbie Rogers
76.4 Sebastian Miranda
74.5 Julius James
74.5 William Hesmer
74.5 Chad Marshall
72.0 Emilio Rentería
65.9 Rich Balchan
61.7 Kevin Burns
55.3 Emmanuel Ekpo
55.3 Dejan Rusmir
54.3 Dilly Duka
43.3 Andres Mendoza
26.8 Tommy Heinemann
26.2 Jeff Cunningham
24.6 Josh Gardner
20.8 Bernardo Anor
19.5 Leandre Griffit

Again, Castrol is only through the end of April and only updated once a month. Its complex measurement system does not seem sustainable to me. Note: Missing Mr. Gardner and Mr. Griffit along with a couple games because of time frame.

Castrol's method is deep while mine has more to do with how well the team is doing, using regression, with the rest of the league. Goals, assists, shot accuracy do matter but only as much as team Goals against in relationship with the rest of the league and time on the pitch (where defenders earn their keep).

Making great passes around the 18 yard box is great... but are they winning and who is on the pitch when they are? Or conversely, who is on the pitch most when loosing?

I've never seen anywhere that states that good passing anywhere on the pitch is a KPI of wins. Just as I don't see possession percentage as an indicator of it. But I'm new to this. I'll look in to it further.

For now? I'm content with my method. As a guy who works in manufacturing and deals with key performance indicators all day? Contentment with your measurement system is all you can ask for.

That said.

Above all other sports I know that Soccer isn't about numbers. It's the beautiful game. But people like to try to quantify and qualify it. I like to use my measurements as a way of understanding. Others, who have an uncanny eye for it, do not need it. I envy them.

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