Houston Win, Crew 6 Pts Out

Only one time in the past three years has a Major League Soccer playoff team come from out of a playoff spot 50% through the season. It was the Houston Dynamo in 2011 (they were two points out at the time).

With that in mind, it is worth noting; Two goals from the Houston Dynamo's Adam Moffat last night not only helped to put New England away but also dropped the Crew to 6 points out of the 5th and final playoff spot (on even games).

The Columbus Crew are looking down a long row to hoe at the moment. Just to get back in to the playoff race, it is critically important that the Crew get all 9 points from the next three games (two of which include two Eastern Conf teams right above them).

This clock is ticking on this 2013 Crew season.

The Massive Report Ohio Crew

I wrote a lot about Crew rosters since 2011 over at Massive Report. For a while now I've been tracking starting lineups, subs, plus/minus and the like but a couple weeks ago decided to match individual player salaries up with that data. What came out was interesting.

It was also a little overwhelming. Once it was matched up I spent a few days sorting it in every way I could think of. I felt that I was able to come to a number of reasonably thought out conclusions (though there is always more). I'll keep tracking it to and messing around with it. Fun stuff.

Abracadabra.

Updated Player GD, PPG (KRAMB)

Updating team performance when a particular Crew player is starting and goal activity when on the pitch. KRAMB* adds up team Points Earned per Start with Goal Difference (GD) when that player is on the pitch.

Minimum of 5 starts. Players with less will be listed at bottom of post.

KRAMB : NAME (GMs STARTED)
1.90 : Eddie Gaven (10)
1.75 : Agustín Viana (8)
1.65 : Danny O´Rourke (14)
1.47 : Joshua Williams (17)
1.37 : Dominic Oduro (19)
1.33 : Chad Marshall (15)
1.23 : Gláuber Berti (13)

1.21 : TEAM (19)

1.20 : Bernardo Anor (5)
1.10 : Federico Higuaín (19)
1.05 : Andy Gruenebaum (18)
0.89 : Ben Speas (9)
0.87 : Tyson Wahl (16)
0.85 : Tony Tchani (7)
0.75 : Matías Sánchez (8)
0.67 : Jairo Obando Arrieta (9)
0.57 : Chad Barson (7)

Takeaways:

• Top two players are hurt (Gaven out for year, Viana back soon).

• You can see how one +3 PPG and +1 GD missing for Gruenebaum's number puts him (Matt Lampson started last match).

• Anor jumps on the list for the first time this year crossing the 5 game mark at about team average. In years past Anor has had superior results with this measurement.

• The Crew have not had great results in last 7 matches, these also happen to be when Barson is starting. I don't consider him a step up in quality from Wahl but do like he is getting time.

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Next up is Goal Difference when player starts. This does not include when a player is subbed on (that is something I'll look at some other time).

GD : NAME
+0.40 : Eddie Gaven
+0.36 : Danny O´Rourke
+0.25 : Agustín Viana
+0.18 : Joshua Williams
+0.16 : Dominic Oduro
+0.13 : Chad Marshall

0.00 : Gláuber Berti
0.00 : TEAM
0.00 : Bernardo Anor

-0.06 : Andy Gruenebaum
-0.11 : Federico Higuaín
-0.11 : Ben Speas
-0.19 : Tyson Wahl
-0.22 : Jairo Obando Arrieta
-0.25 : Matías Sánchez
-0.29 : Tony Tchani
-0.43 : Chad Barson

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Here is Points Earned per Start.

Pts per Start : NAME
1.50 : Eddie Gaven
1.50 : Agustín Viana
1.29 : Danny O´Rourke
1.29 : Joshua Williams
1.23 : Gláuber Berti

1.21 : Dominic Oduro
1.21 : TEAM
1.21 : Federico Higuaín

1.20 : Chad Marshall
1.20 : Bernardo Anor
1.14 : Tony Tchani
1.11 : Andy Gruenebaum
1.06 : Tyson Wahl
1.00 : Ben Speas
1.00 : Matías Sánchez
1.00 : Chad Barson
0.89 : Jairo Obando Arrieta

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Players with not enough starts.
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KRAMB : NAME(GMs STARTED)
4.00 : Wil Trapp (1)
4.00 : Matt Lampson (1)
4.00 : Konrad Warzycha (1)
4.00 : Aaron Schoenfeld (1)
0.75 : Justin Meram (4)
0.75 : Eric Gehrig (4)
-0.34 : Kevan George (3)

Takeaways from players with few starts:

• George is only player with out a win on the team (2 Loss, 1 Draw) and he has an average goal difference of -0.67 when starting.

• Gehrig and Meram have identical numbers. 1 Win, 2 Draws, 1 Loss and a goal difference of -0.50

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*I call this score KRAMB for Ryan Kramb (PhD, MS, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign BS University of Dayton) who was curious about 'on pitch' data. I now regularly track it and use it in player evaluation.

Please note, this is only one way to measure a player's contributions.

Crew Rd 19, Win Over Broken Timbers

The Columbus Crew beat a shorthanded Portland Timbers 1:0 off and early headed goal from Bernardo Anor, his second in as many games.

1ST HALF
The game started with a giant wall of activity. The Crew came out in their normal high energy way looking for an early goal. This time was a little different, however. Here is the Crew lineup:

Matt Lampson
Josh Williams, Chad Marshall, Danny O'Rourke, Chad Barson
Konrad Warzycha, Will Trapp
Dominic Oduro, Federico Higuaín, Bernardo Anor
Aaron Schoenfeld

This amounts to a feel-good lineup with lots of young local stars and they were up to the task early. Mixing it up and earning an early corner. Federico Higuain, for the 2nd week in a row, linked up with an unmarked Bernardo Anor for a headed goal. This put the Crew up 1:0 in the 7th minute.

Short time later Portland defender Pa-Modou Kah received his first yellow for a bad foul. Right after that, another card for a high kick to the face of Aaron Schoenfeld in the box. It was a nightmare start for Kah who was sent off.

Higuian would step up to take the penalty but he missed wide. Shortly after Timbers head coach Caleb Porter subbed in an extra defender in Mamadou Danso ("Futty") to hold off the Crew attack on his ten men side.

The Futty sub calmed the Timbers and settled the game. In fact, Portland controlled much of the match from there.

2ND HALF
The 2nd half resembled the 1st in a lot of ways. Good amount of possession from Portland (who out possessed the Crew 56 to 44% down a man for 80 minutes) forced the Crew into an odd roll of working counters, breaks and through balls as if they were a man down.

The half wore on and a strong back line and with an impressive looking Trapp were enough to hold off the Timbers.

FINAL THOUGHTS
• Columbus ends an uncharacteristic three game losing streak.

• Portland was missing three of their best players and did well holding off the Crew a man down for virtually the whole match.

• Crew coach Robert Warzycha had an unusual quote after the match "I don't think I was disappointed... usually difficult to play a man up."

• Good first outing for 'Young' Wil Trapp.

• Columbus needs another option in attack other than just springing Dominic Oduro if they want more goals.

• Tough to pull too much from this game because of the early red card. Crew might have done better against a 10 man team, but I'm sure they will be satisfied with 3 pts.

• It was enjoyable to see Porter work in under these circumstances. His players held it together and were successful in playing decent possession, but the finishing skill was missing. Felt Michael Harrington (coming off injury) and Ben Zemanski didn't have their best games.

Predictions: Crew (H) v. Timbers

Caleb Porter's Portland Timbers are in town today to take on the Columbus Crew. Game start is 5:00 PM EST and 2:00 PM Oregon time (but what is time, really).

GAME NOTES
-CLB: Played last Thursday in LA
-CLB: Have lost 3 straight
-CLB: Should have big home crowd today
-PDX: 15 match unbeaten run
-PDX: Only 2 wins on Road (7 Draws)
-PDX: W.Johnson, Piquionne, Wallace on Int'l Duty
-PDX: Caleb Porter

PREDICTIONS
We are halfway through the year now so I tabulated all picks year to date on Crew matches. List will be descending (most - least accurate)

1. CURRENT TABLE : TIMBERS
Just picking the team higher up on the table is a good place to start now that half the year is over. Portland are much higher up on the table.

2. WINDRAWWIN : TIMBERS
The 'your vote' sections here likes Portland 48% of the vote (Columbus at 22%) with a Large stake on a 0:1 Away win.

3. BET365.COM : TIMBERS
Had to break out the calculator on this one. Portland (fav) 8/5, Crew 17/10 and Draw at 9/4. This marks the first time all season the Crew have not been favored at home.

4. GOAL.COM : TIMBERS
This one is more loose. Not a lot of fan participation on the 'reader prediction' and only a one sentence summary to go on. That said, just a accurate as MLSsoccer.com's pick 'em team. Keith Hickey gives us his thoughts today; "The Crew can move into a playoff spot with some luck, but they'll need a lot of it when Porterball comes to town."

5. HOME TEAM : CREW
Just picking the home team gets you 5th on this list.

6. WV HOOLIGAN : TIMBERS
Drew Epperley thinks the Timbers have this one today. However, I think he thinks the Crew are on the road, "Tired legs of the Crew going against a rested Portland team on the road." He's picking Portland 2:0 Crew.

7. MLSSOCCER.COM : NO PICK
Taking the picks collectively at MLSsoccer.com is a bad way to go. You're better off going with one person there, or just none at all. That said, they didn't make weekend predictions this time. Bankers hours?

I don't officially track local newspaper Crew team beat writer Adam Jardy's leaning but I do record it. This week he feels that Portland is the better side and that Columbus needs three points to keep their '...flickering hopes of reaching the postseason,' alive. Pick up the Columbus Newspaper anywhere in town.

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MY THOUGHTS

MLS Fans: I am your Leader

You've really got to go back a ways to find a four straight loss Crew team. 2009 in fact (right at the end of the year) and this year's Crew team is about as far away from that team as you can get.

While we are looking at trends, the Crew generally play well through the summer months so this run is unusual. Does it mean they will pull out a win today? Not looking that way. However.

Portland is missing three key guys today. Will Johnson, Rodney Wallace and Frederic Piquionne which works out to be 11 of 27 team goals and 12 of 33 assists (btw, secondary assists!).

Piquionne has been more of a recent phenomenon for the Timbers but the absence of Johnson and Wallace will weaken them. Porter plays a solid soccerballing game though. Their subs will be able to fill in well.

Diego Valeri is with the team and will be pulling the strings here today and you still have Donovan Ricketts in goal.

Portland are just difficult to beat this year. I will be in attendance for this one because I like what Caleb Porter is doing in (to?) MLS with the Timbers.

I will gladly pay to see good soccer teams (or at least ones playing the game of soccer).

Crew Rd 18: Late Game Mess, Loss

The Columbus Crew fall to the LA Galaxy 2:1 because of two late called fouls in the box.

1ST HALF
LA might have been a little surprised at how easily the gained possession and worked the ball just inside the Crew's half of the field. Matias Sanchez and Kevan George seemed a lost for large sections of the game and gave the Galaxy little trouble.

As the half worn on it started to resemble the Crew's previous game with Sporting KC. Columbus couldn't get anything and LA seemed to have open chance after open chance.

The first half wound up with LA seeing 13 shots vs. 1 for the Crew (vs. KC the week prior it was 12-3).

2ND HALF
More of the same to start. The Crew seemed to be a bit more aggressive but it was LA still driving the car.

Things changed in the 78th minute. Bernardo Anor received a free kick from Higuain and headed in a blooping header from about 15 yards, Crew +1.

The Galaxy seemed to ramp up a little but it was much more desperate than their easy going dominance in the 1st half. Columbus stiffened and it seemed like it might work until Jose Villarreal got nipped in the box and went down. Robbie Keane finished the penalty to even it up.

Not long after, in stoppage time, Keane went down easy when Anor leaned on him with his arm. It was a questionable call. Keane again stepped up to finish off the penalty and there it ended.

FINAL THOUGHTS.
These types of games happen too often in MLS. Messy and a lot of that has to do with the way the Crew played in the first half. It was just about as poor as I have ever seen them.

I don't have a lot to say about this one. In some ways it was a throwback type MLS game in that you had one team that couldn't finish against another who doesn't know what possession is, decided on two penalty kicks after the 85th minute in front of a capacity crowd just there to see the postgame fireworks.

A tough watch. On to Portland this Sunday in what will hopefully be a better game.

MLS GK Pass Distribution

Took a good look at goalie passing distribution over at Massive Report. The post idea was spurred on by Alex O of Tempo-Free Soccer. Give him a follow.

My results confirmed what many think: playing possession from the back is smarter than just booting it up the field. Seems like common sense but a lot of MLS teams still don't get it. There is a strong relationship between playing it short and winning.

Here is bonus data I didn't link to over at Massive Report, HERE and the image in this post wasn't used because I felt it was a sad looking Gruenebaum and there was no reason for it. Like the image though, so it goes up here.

Predictions: Crew (A) v Galaxy

The Columbus Crew disrupt their circadian rhythms tonight due to a 10:30 PM EST matchup against the LA Galaxy at the StubHub Center. 7:30 PM PST.

GAME NOTES
-CLB: Only 5 pts in last 6 games
-CLB: Traveled direct to LA after KC game last Sat.
-CLB: Higuain being investigated, passport falsification
-CLB: Arrieta out, Gold Cup
-LAG: 7 pts in last 6 games
-LAG: Robbie Rogers to face old team
-LAG: Landon Donovan out, Gold Cup
-LAG: Only conceded 2 goals at home (6 games)

PREDICTIONS
"I really don’t know what to make of the Crew these days." Drew Epperley, writer for SB Nations Big D soccer and WV Hooligan. His prediction for tonight? LA Galaxy 3, Columbus 1.

Bet365 likes the Home Team this week giving them 1/2 (Draw 16/5, Crew 11/2). In other words, The Galaxy are heavily favored.

Win Draw Win places Home/Away form at the top of their summary each game. It's for good reason, it matters. In six home games this year LA have scored 12 and only conceded 2. Because of this we get a Medium Stake on a Home win, 2:0 and a 'your vote' in favor of LA, 55% and Columbus 14%.

The team over MLSsoccer.com has Galaxy across the board this week.

Adam Jardy, Crew beat writer for the Columbus Dispatch, doesn't show a lean either way in today's paper. He does state that a loss here would set up an "unpleasant scene at Crew Stadium" this Sunday.

Over at Goal.com Zac Lee Rigg writes; "Los Angeles will look to preserve a four-game home unbeaten streak against the Crew come July 4." The fan voting there is getting some activity going 90% LA Galaxy 5.5% Crew. Steep.

MY THOUGHTS

Chipped Beef & Scotch

The Crew are in the middle of the toughest part of their schedule and are struggling. A win tonight is not likely but, of course, not impossible.

Despite what NFL fans like to project onto soccer, location matters. Form matters. And also, for the sake of Pete - Stop saying each game can turn around the season. A Crew win here or an LA win doesn't do that. It's a long season. I feel like the pitcher in the Barbsol commercial needs to set people straight here.

I'm normally not a fan of this, but a draw here for Columbus should be what the Crew fight for. Zero, zero? Okay, good enough right now. Adam Jardy is correct in his statement about the Sunday game if the Crew lose tonight. It would mark the third loss in a row and push the team back to 3 points in last five.

Columbus hasn't lost three in a row since mid-September of 2011 and only three times since the start of 2008.

Late game start for Crew fans but sometimes the best moments happen in games like this one. Enjoy.

Frankie Hejduk Singing, Meeting, Pictures

One of the highlights of my week is joining in the conversation over at Massive Report's podcast. This past Monday Frankie Hejduk joined in. He took my spot and my headphones for close to an hour.

Hejduk is as close to a modern, living legend as US players get. Folks here in Columbus, Ohio may take him for granted but they shouldn't. I basically grew up with him and remember him vividly from my early morning perch in an Irish pub in Raleigh, NC during the 2002 World Cup.

He is was a special player and is a special human being. You can hear what he had to say on Monday's Massive Report podcast HERE.