Crew in Crisis? Yes... and No

It's been a rough 10 days or so for the Columbus Crew. Three games, three losses with 11 goals against. It has been bad enough that it is sounding alarm bells off in the hearts and minds of even the most faithful Crew season ticket holder to the passionate blackout drunk in the Nordecke.

In fact, in a lot of ways, the fans are right to think something is horribly wrong with the team because having this many goals scored on them over a three-game span just isn't something that happens in Columbus. You have to go back over a decade to see it.

Making matters worse (and perhaps the sole reason for the anger at the team) in the mind of fans is that the Crew have only won a single match in five at the new stadium. The last two being losses.

1. CREW IN CRISIS? YES... and NO

Now, that record is probably giving the team front office nightmares. On top of the difficulty of selling MLS soccer in Columbus (historically), they now have to wrestle with a full month of poor results in their new little downtown wonderland of LED light and smoke - and the camo paint job on the empty seats is already noticeable. 

Ever since the successful launch and rebrand that Sporting KC pulled off, we see other MLS teams trying to recreate that magic. The Crew very well be the most like for like to KC since and honestly, it's a complete faceplant in comparison. KC only lost one game at their new "Livestrong Sporting Park" that entire season. It built momentum for the front office that they rode for almost a decade (could argue it's still going). 

The Crew, by comparison, had a disaster of a rebrand (which meant no new merch sales), and each home game I've seen empty seats (increasingly). On top of that, of course, is the results there. Not good!

2. CREW IN CRISIS? YES... and NO

Simply put, Caleb Porter has the Columbus Crew on the most consistently good run in modern MLS history (the last 12 years or so). The long view, on a 20 game rolling average, the team hasn't dipped below 1.55 points per game in 41 games. No team going back to the 2008 MLS Cup winners has been about to sustain that kind of PPG average. It's pretty remarkable.

The asterisk here with Porter is that this good run of games came after the absolute worst run in Crew history when he first started (the one win in 15 run April - July 2019). But this season has been a Gold Cup year and the team lost a couple key players for a few weeks in Room and Zardes. There are also a few injuries, notably to Valenzuela, Williams, and Artur that the team is dealing with.

So, you are watching a good team on a really long good run that might be coming down out of it after a year + of outstanding results. Is it frustrating it is coming right when the new place opened up? Yep.

...is it also possible that Porter is flaming out gloriously? yes.

Crew Look Average

The chart above shows rolling 10 game points per game averages in three-year chunks.

Light Gray Line - 2008, 2009, 2010 (Sigi Schmid, Robert Warzycha)
Yellow Line - 2011, 2012, 2013 (Robert Warzycha)
Black Line - 2014, 2015, 2016 (Gregg Berhalter)

Interesting that Berhalter has played so many more games in three seasons. Playoffs and regular season scheduling changes have caused that. Another call out is the pattern that appears. Or rhythm of sorts. You can tell when the team makes a push (or pull). Robert Warzycha had three notable push/pulls. One at the end of 2010. Another after he signed a new contract in summer of 2011 and, a positive one, when Crew signed Federico Higuain and Jairo Arrieta (late 2012).

Berhalter's teams have a habit of going on extended poor runs. MLS allows for that via forgiving competition rules. It sucks for fans, though.

Anyhow, this year's team is smack in one awful run right now. Last two draws were seen as victories for this team. Not a good place to be. This roster got a lot worse when they shipped off Kei Kamara. It's not just his goals that will be missed, it's the whole style of play that Columbus now has to rework now that they are just crossing it into him. Not something easily done in the middle of a season.

The team we saw play Toronto last night is a very average MLS team and not one that can go on a 10 pts in the next five type of run - which is the type of run they will need just to get back into the postseason picture.

Key things missing (by "key," I mean fundamental) to make that happen are as follows:

1. Depth
2. Identity
3. Team Chemistry

Depth is up there because Columbus has hollowed out the bench by not playing them much last few years as well has not having any sort of reserve league to keep them fresh. Identity might be something they can pick up in the back half of the season but not if the chemistry isn't there.

Crew Loss Highlights MLS Scheduling

The loss last night on the road in New England certainly doesn't spell doom for the previously red hot Columbus Crew but it does have me peeling back a couple layers and asking a couple questions.

First big one is how on earth did this Crew team get on a historically good run (modern)? Berhalter? New excitement? Players believing in themselves? Guys just taking quantum leaps in development? #NEWCREW?!

Turns out it's probably due to wonky MLS scheduling. A closer look the team's record poor run in the middle of the season was due to the fact that the Crew didn't have a run of games at home and are now (or just finished) a fairly unprecedented set of home matches.

This chart below shows how many home games the team had in the previous four weeks. Farther up the chart - the more home games during the previous month, down - less.



The red dots indicate when the Crew were playing more games on the road over a couple month's period. The first dot (left) happened towards the end of the 2010 season. Everybody remembers the end of that year as the Crew - after having a great year, suddenly went winless in six, shut out three times.

That team ended up playing on the road to Colorado and lose while the head coach sat his best player in the first half. The reasoning at the time was because of a poor run of results leading up, well, turns out the schedule was harsh and the coaching staff were not tuned to it. Mistakes all around.

The dot on the right shows this year's Berhalter team playing slightly more on the road and never stringing more (3) at home in a four week time. That tough run put the Crew in a historically bad place on a few metrics (10 and 20 game results, goal difference) but they came out of it well over the last two months, when the schedule pointed back to Columbus.

Where this leaves the Crew is with a brutal three game road trip right at the most critical time of the year. Yes, you have to play the games in front of you but the unbalanced way Major League Soccer handles it's schedule is frustrating as it seems more interested in smoke and mirrors than actual competition.

In the case of the 2010 Crew you see the results of a tough, unbalanced road/home schedule. The team crashed and burned spectacularly to the point where the team was blown up in the offseason. Even this past year you had fans and league watchers wondering if Gregg Berhalter was the guy after they went on a one win in previous 16. A different owner might have sacked the coach there, even.

Last night's result is a normal road final. Isolated, it's not that big a deal but because the time of year and with two more weeks in a row away from home ramps up the possibility of a drop in standings which could have a catastrophic impact on the post season MLS Cup.

In a league that institutes rules and bi-laws upon bi-laws to keep things as even as possible, scheduling needs to be fair and free of any hint of late season engineering.

The Massive Report Ohio Crew

I wrote a lot about Crew rosters since 2011 over at Massive Report. For a while now I've been tracking starting lineups, subs, plus/minus and the like but a couple weeks ago decided to match individual player salaries up with that data. What came out was interesting.

It was also a little overwhelming. Once it was matched up I spent a few days sorting it in every way I could think of. I felt that I was able to come to a number of reasonably thought out conclusions (though there is always more). I'll keep tracking it to and messing around with it. Fun stuff.

Abracadabra.

USMNT PPG Since 1988 (Chart)

This post could have been titled; "2012. Second Most Successful Year in US Men's National Team History" because by a Points Earned Per Game measure, it was. Jürgen Klinsmann has righted the ship after Bob Bradley coached team that was sinking.*

Some notes and interesting facts.

I started in 1988 because that's when this current era of United States Soccer started (not calling it 'modern'). It also marks the start of the US team playing at least 10 matches a year. Only earlier year would be 1973 when the team played 12 games.

Between the years of 1981 and 1983 the team only played two games.

In 2012 the USMNT only played on home turf six times. You have to go all the way back to 1987 to see less than that (when the team only played a total of three games all year). The average is around 11 games at home a year.

Since 1988 the US have averaged around 70% of games at home. 2012 was 43% (6 of 14).

I like what Herr Klinsmann is doing. While he hasn't faced the toughest competition (I rate 2010, 09, 02, 99, 95 as more difficult since 1988) has he achieved historically significant results away from home.

Had this team won in Russia it would hold the title of most points earned per game in US Soccer history. Instead, it's 2nd behind 2005's team (2.25 PPG, 14 W, 3 D, 3 L).

There are lots of different ways to measure success on the National Team level. When you step back and spend some time with the actual results you might find that Klinsmann is doing something impressive.

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I'm no USMNT expert but do find myself digging around her history from time to time. The more I do so the more I realize the US has a very rich footballing history that I hope gets explored more. My data is primarily from the FIFA.com website (and I do realize some early results can be disputed).

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*Three data points in any direction is a trend.