Crew Rd 6: Get Point in Montreal

Crew record a point away in Montreal on an iffy playing surface and a day after originally scheduled.

1ST HALF
Montreal might have had most of the possession but it was Columbus that looked slightly more dangerous. Federico Higuain's breakaway 1 on 1 chance on GK Troy Perkins in particular was the highlight. Ben Speas also had a good shot from the top of the 18 yd box. Ultimately, the half ended 0:0 with Montreal not really looking too interested.

2ND HALF
Montreal looked hungry to control the 2nd half with Di Vaio getting more opportunities by aggressively testing the Crew back line. In fact, he had a goal incorrectly called back that would have put his side up 1:0. Perhaps spurred on, Di Vaio finished a beauty from the top of the box into Andy Gruenebaum's right hand corner a few minutes after the bad offsides call.

Going a goal down against Montreal is not an easy thing to come back from but the Crew were able to pull it back off a brilliant Dominic Oduro knockdown then shot off his weaker foot.

From there though, the game seemed to wind down for some reason. Perhaps both sides were ready for this noon kickoff / delayed game / soft pitch game to end.

THOUGHTS
• A point is fine for the Crew away in Montreal but you can't help feeling they could have stolen this one.

• Jairo Arrieta was left on the bench for the 2nd game in a row. It has now been a month (March 16th) since his last start for the Crew.

• Dominic Oduro has scored in two straight games but neither have been a win for the Crew.

• The Crew would probably trade 1 win and 3 pts from last two over 2 draws.

Predictions: Crew v. Impact

Columbus is in snowy Montreal for a match to be played this weekend. Originally scheduled for 2 PM, Saturday April 13th but has been moved to Sunday April 14th, noon kickoff.

GAME NOTES
- Adding an extra day to travel can mean 'bad travel'.
- Some reports have Higuain as 'questionable', he did travel.
- Montreal beat the Crew in a preseason tournament championship 1:0 and looked good doing it.
- Justin Meram, Eric Gehrig did not travel.
- Impact head coach Marco Schallibaum is serving the last game of his suspension.

PREDICTIONS
Starting off with MLS soccer dot com because they got the Crew game very wrong last week.

Editor, Andrew Wiebe is at 31% accurate right now (basically as good as random selection). Further note; Matt Doyle, Armchair Analyst is at 51% accurate. A comment under the predictions calls out Mr. Doyle's affinity for Home teams. Nothing wrong with picking them. As discussed here last year after going over best predictors. Picking Home team to win gets you over half right. Picking Draw when top half club visits bottom takes you over the rainbow.

Anyhow. This MLS group favors Montreal by a vote of 4 for win and 2 pick draw.

WV Hooligan, Drew Epperley, likes Montreal here: "...the game will have one goal and the home side will end up with it."

Bet365 is leaning heavily towards Montreal, almost evens at 21/20 for them to win. Draw at 9/4, Crew 11/4. Lines could change due to postponement of match. Moving the time back also allows more information about injuries to leak out.

Win Draw Win's reliable 'fan vote' gives slight edge to Montreal, 37% to win, 34% draw. Actually, very close there and only a small stake on 1:0 Impact win.

Goal.com fan predictor is very heavy Montreal, 75% picked to win.

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MY THOUGHTS
The thing everyone thought would happen, is happening. Friction about lineup changes. Remarkably, the Crew have only had 12 different players start but the decision to sit Jairo Arrieta last match has caused some problems within the club (read more Warzycha's bizarre explanation at Massive Report).

Along with the fresh new crack within the club you have bad travel because of the game's postponement AND opening match outside for the Impact. This can wreak havoc on a club that has cracks. Not just between players/coaches but player groups/cliques.

A Crew win, even a draw, will take monumental effort and concentration.

Round Up 6 on SBNation /MLS Page

Noticed that my last round up got put up on the MLS landing page over at SB Nation. Not sure exactly how that works but went back to December and couldn't find much outside a handful of writers (Jeremiah Oshan and Ryan Rosenblatt with a few from other community writers, none Massive Report).

From what I can tell it has to do with my comments on MLS attendance being down from last year. Anyhow, I'll file this under 'hey, neat!'.

Kramb's Law (first look, Crew)

We are almost to a magical 2013 MLS season moment here for Helltown - That moment? One where all MLS teams have reached at least 5 games.

I like 5 games because it is 450 minutes, and from what I have been able to observe over the past three years in tracking MLS stats closely is that 450 is the first marker in identifying a trend. Be it good or bad. Player or club.

While there are still 3 teams sitting on four the other 16 are at 5 or six. So I am jumping the gun a little. Consider it a preview.

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KRAMB'S LAW(s) OF PERFORMANCE
The name comes from Ryan Kramb (M.S., PhD, Chemical Engineering / Crew fan), who asked a few questions of me towards the end of last year about tracking team performance while players were on the field. Let's take a look at the ingredients.

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1. Goal Difference:
We'll call this the 1st of 3 Kramb laws. GD while on the pitch is right up there with points earned per start in my book. Critical performance indicators that can lead to a better understanding of the team.

Goal Difference alone whilst on the pitch is a good indicator but Goal Diff vs how well the team does gives us a performance metric.

GOAL DIFF vs TEAM AVG : NAME
+0.73 : Eddie Gaven

0.00 : Chad Marshall
0.00 : Danny O´Rourke
0.00 : Dominic Oduro
0.00 : Joshua Williams
0.00 : Gláuber Berti
0.00 : Tyson Wahl
0.00 : Andy Gruenebaum

-0.20 : Agustín Viana
-0.40 : Federico Higuaín
-0.60 : Jairo Obando Arrieta
-0.60 : Ben Speas

2. Opponent Difficulty:
Another major influencer to consider in monitoring player performance is quality of opponent. For this I use current place on the overall MLS table. Right now the Crew's avg opponent place on the table is 9.6 or, about the middle of the table. You can turn this into a metric by taking each individual player's Opponent Diff vs. Team Avg.

OPPONENT DIFF VS. TEAM AVG : NAME
+2.27 : Jairo Obando Arrieta

0.00 : Chad Marshall
0.00 : Danny O´Rourke
0.00 : Dominic Oduro
0.00 : Joshua Williams
0.00 : Gláuber Berti
0.00 : Tyson Wahl
0.00 : Andy Gruenebaum
0.00 : Agustín Viana
0.00 : Federico Higuaín

-0.40 : Eddie Gaven
-1.40 : Ben Speas

3. Points Earned per Start:
Now we are on to points earned when an individual player starts vs team average (1.60 PPG right now).

PPG vs TEAM : NAME
+0.73 : Eddie Gaven

0.00 : Chad Marshall
0.00 : Danny O´Rourke
0.00 : Dominic Oduro
0.00 : Joshua Williams
0.00 : Gláuber Berti
0.00 : Tyson Wahl
0.00 : Andy Gruenebaum
0.00 : Agustín Viana
0.00 : Federico Higuaín

-0.27 : Jairo Obando Arrieta
-0.35 : Ben Speas

Now that we have three useful, actionable metrics I'm going to simply add them up and see what happens.

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KRAMB SCORE : NAME
+1.40 : Jairo Obando Arrieta
+1.07 : Eddie Gaven

0.00 : Chad Marshall
0.00 : Danny O´Rourke
0.00 : Joshua Williams
0.00 : Gláuber Berti
0.00 : Tyson Wahl
0.00 : Andy Gruenebaum
0.00 : Dominic Oduro

-0.20 : Agustín Viana
-0.40 : Federico Higuaín
-2.35 : Ben Speas

What this should tell us is which players have contributed the most while playing. This isn't a measure of individual player quality but more a indication of which players are getting results while playing.

Some early thoughts (and it is very early):

• Arrieta missed the DC win but benefits because of United's poor place on the table. He was also part of the big win week one vs. Chivas USA.

• Speas is the only player that missed the Chivas USA win. With out that win the Crew are achingly average and Speas score suffers from that. Would the Crew have won that Vancouver game away were Gaven playing?

• Higuain was down the list at the end of last year as well. I've written A LOT about why this happens (see my Massive Report piece on it). Summed up? Better teams figured out fast how the Crew coaching staff was using him last year and all teams have figured it out this year.

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Stay tuned to Massive Report by around Week 10. I'll post up the same there but with more data to support 2013 results.

Rd 5: A Tie? What Do I Know

The Crew v. Union game finished knotted up at 1:1. X, for some out there.

I was in Baltimore this past weekend. I haven't watched the match yet. Here is how the Crew's Round 5 game went for me:

--Saturday, April 6th, 4:05 PM--
Hanover, Maryland. 7th Floor of The Hotel Arundel Preserve. Getting ready with other groomsmen. Fumble through Twitter for lineups for a second, unsuccessful.

--4:06 PM--
Get text from friend; "Arrieta's on the bench".

--4:06:01 PM--
Put my phone away.

Right about here I figured that Dominic Oduro got the start. Last week, during the Massive Report Podcast, I am on record stating that Jairo Arrieta is the correct choice to start up top. Arrieta had a brace the last time the Crew took on Philly in Columbus.

There are a few out there that were enammored with Oduro's performance against DC a couple weeks ago whilst Arrieta was international duty. Oduro is a 1 goal every 4 regardless of who he plays with. Arrieta was 1 in 2 last year. It's not like Oduro just started playing MLS ball this year. His record is proven and does not deviate.

I was frustrated by Robert Warzycha's decision to keep Arrieta on the bench. Exasperating the problem was the fact that it looks like he lost his starting spot because he was on international duty.

--5:25:ish PM--
After a couple drinks and waiting for the bridesmaids to arrive for pictures I turn on the game on my phone. 0:0. Watched about five or so minutes of flat play. No energy from the Crew but could have been a bad spell.

I start fielding a few questions from the other groomsmen about Major League Soccer. Most of these guys have spent significant time in other parts of the world. All have lived in South America. Another currently in Africa. The best man, from Charlotte, NC. All are fairly well off.

None seem to care about MLS but it wasn't due to not knowing about the sport... one in the group knows some of the finer details of the financial fair play in Europe and another knows about the MLS DP rule. None of them, however, pay regular attention to MLS except for the occasional DC United game (even hough one is actually a member of the legendary La Barra Brava, as my brother is.. incidentally).

"Not enough teams," one says.

"No relegation," says another. "It'd be more interesting, like other countries."

"Need more teams."

--5:50 PM--
Check Twitter. Philly had scored, wedding about to start. One of the other groomsmen's wife's water just broke. True.

--SOMEWHERE AROUND PERFECT--
The wedding is beautiful. The groom is from Maiden, NC. I went to Campbell University with him and we became close friends and have stayed in touch since. He married a beautiful woman from Benin, Africa (near Ghana) who is currently a resident at Johns Hopkins.

--8:00 PM OR SO--
Get asked by an entrepreneur in Africa who traveled back to the US for the wedding "hey, who won the game?" I check my phone. "A tie." The guy who asked is from Toledo, OH. A Browns fan. He spent significant time in Bolivia and was telling me stories about a 'classico' they have down there. Apparently booze isn't allowed into Bolivian stadiums but that didn't stop those creative enough to get it in.

In fact there was some of Bolivia's finest spirits at my table.

The speeches are given. Most of it is in French. I recall taking the groom up to early DC United games in the late 1990s. A favorite; Marco Etcheverry.

From there popular music plays and the 200+ in attendance start to dance in what is the best reception I have even been to.

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On my way back today I swung through Northern VA to see my parents for lunch. Around there I pulled up Adam Jardy's latest in the Columbus Dispatch. I see the word 'listless' and decided that I'll catch up with it when I get back to the paper waiting for me in German Village.

In the panhandle of West VA I pulled up MLS Live to listen to match (not watch!). It worked surprisingly well till it got blocked around Zanesville, OH. Dwight and Duncan weren't changing the 'listless' start.

I'll catch up with it tomorrow evening but for tonight I decided it would be interesting to jot down what I know of the match before viewing it myself.

Jairo Arrieta not starting combined with the 'listless' 1st half is almost enough for me to chalk this one up to classic poor man management by the Crew coaching staff.

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Just now I looked up the sub pattern. I see Arrieta came in at the half... over correction again. To the players it makes it look like he was benched for going on international duty. Same old and all of that. Makes no sense. The small 10k crowd is fitting.

How about I write a post on Helltown about this game without watching it.

Predictions: Crew Rd 5 (Philly)

Columbus plays host for the 2nd time this year as the Philadelphia Union travel to Crew Stadium. 5 PM EST start. Also, 5 PM start here in Baltimore where there may be a groomsman watching on his phone.

GAME NOTES
- Last one between these two saw 32 SHTS, 14 on target (Crew 11 of them)
- Jairo Arrieta with brace that game
- Philly bet the Crew early last year at PPL 1:0
- Philly off to better expected start, 2 wins, 2 losses
- Crew haven't lost at home in last 10 but as discussed right after last home game, Crew haven't beat anyone in the top half during that time.
- Philly isn't (expected) to be a top half team this year.

PREDICTIONS

Bet365 heavily favors the Crew 5/6, 13/5 Draw, 16/5 Union. Best odds the Crew have had in some time.

Betting aggregate site Win Draw Win is sending some mixed signals. Show Crew as heavy favorite to win but shows large stake on 1:1 Draw and the reliable 'fan vote' actually is steering Philly (31%) but Draw most likely outcome (43%).

Drew Epperley over at WV Hooligan thinks "This could easily be the game of the weekend," and that the Crew have enough to send Philly back with sad faces; 2:1.

MLS Soccer experts think that the Crew should take this one. All six MLS employees that, in fact. Confident.

MY THOUGHTS

The Union have looked much better than expected in spells and that has been enough to get them 2 wins out of 4 but in Columbus they will have to manage to put together a full game to win.

This happens to be one of the rare "the Crew should win this one" games. They absolutely should get past this Philly team at home in front of their own fans.

Considering how defensive minded away teams have played across the league this season I wouldn't expect this one to be the fast paced / up and down the field match as it was the last time these two met.

Round Up, Round Up

Each week I try and gather my thoughts on MLS enough to put together a 'round up' piece for Massive Report. On top of that, I'm also trying to create interesting artwork for them. I figure it'll be a challenge but force me to pay attention. I'm sure that some weeks I'll be more invested in one or the other but I feel it keeps me from getting trapped in a Crew 'bubble'.

I'm kinda excited about what both the writing and post images will look like by the end of the year. Here are the post headers so far starting with the most recent at the top (Round 5 to 1).

MLS Team Ranking

Major League Soccer Team Ranking based on my own player rankings (right hand column). Good to bad.

1 : A CLASS ABOVE
LA Galaxy

2 : EXCELLENT
Montreal Impact, Houston Dynamo, FC Dallas, Sporting KC and Chivas USA

3 : TOP HALF
Vancouver Whitecaps, Columbus Crew, Philadelphia Union

4 : IN THE MIX
San Jose Earthquakes, Real Salt Lake, Toronto FC, New York Red Bull

5 : OUTSIDE LOOKING IN
New England Revolution, DC United, Portland

6 : 2014
Colorado Rapids, Seattle Sounders, Chicago Fire

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My player rankings take easily available player stats and pull out what I find valuable (metrics/measurements not totals). From there I mix in overall team statistics, which pulls good players on good teams to the top.

For this team rank I rated each team by position (D, F, MF, GK) and place on the table to get order. I also mix in variance between positional rank (to penalize teams with weak spots).

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The Crew would have been in the EXCELLENT category were it not for the injury to Eddie Gaven, the absence of Jario Arrieta, addition of Ben Speas and the Dominic Oduro move from MF to F last week. Might not seem like it, but from this outside (comparatively with other teams) this looks like the Crew MF is not settled through just four games.

MLS Combined True Table can be found on the top right of this blog.