Crew SC Budget Snapshot (with Updated CBA figures)

Dusted off the old spreadsheet now that we have a better picture of what the new CBA looks like.

Budget (cap) Summary:
$3.6 million : 2015 Salary Cap (budget, 1-20 on roster)
$3.1 million : 2015 Crew SC cap number
$0.5 million : 2015 Crew SC cap space

Crew SC have 28 players signed. According to reports, 28 is the 2015 max roster size. Here's how I've got everybody -

ON BUDGET (CAP HIT)
Player Name -- $ Estimated 2015 Wage -- % Increase over 2014
Federico Higuain -- 400,000 -- 0% (DP cap hit)
Emanuel Pogatetz -- 380,000 -- 2%
Michael Parkhurst -- 310,000 -- 3%
Kei Kamara -- 200,000 0%
Tony Tchani -- 200,000 -- 14%
Waylon Francis -- 160,000 -- 4%
Wil Trapp -- 155,000 -- 2%
Hernan Grana -- 150,000 -- 0%
Steve Clark -- 150,000 -- 8%
Kristinn Steindorsson -- 120,000 -- 0%
Ethan Finlay -- 115,000 -- 75%
Justin Meram -- 100,000 -- 9%
Tyson Wahl -- 92,000 -- 3%
Chris Klute -- 85,000 -- 6%
Ben Swanson -- 80,000 -- 0%
Hector Jimenez -- 80,000 -- 7%
Mohammed Saeid -- 70,000 -- 0%
Ben Speas -- 67,000 -- 3%
Romain Gall -- 60,000 -- 16%
Chad Barson -- 52,000 -- 7%

(off budget players)
Kevan George -- 52,000 -- 7%
Matt Lampson -- 52,000 -- 7%
Aaron Schoenfeld -- 52,000 -- 7%
Sergio Campbell -- 50,000 -- 0%
Sagi Lev-Ari -- 50,000 -- 0%
Kalen Ryden -- 50,000 -- 0%
Brad Stuver -- 50,000 -- 3%
Adam Bedell -- 50,000 -- 37%

2015 Crew SC Roster, Budget Snapshot

Happy New Year everyone. The gears of the 2015 Crew SC (CCSC) season have no doubt started so here is a quick summary of where the team stands at this very moment.

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HIGH LEVEL SUMMARY
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1. New CBA being negotiated now. The push back from the MLS Players Union is minimal and no work stoppage is expected.

2. Roster sizes are expected to shrink from 30 to 25 players. CCSC currently at 24

3. Cap / Budget limit is expected to land between 3,875,000 (+25% over 2014) and 4,650,000 (+50%). New player salaries are not known but one can reasonably estimate salaries based on available information and league tendencies. CCSC are still under 2014 league budget of $3,100,000 (my estimate: 3,078,000).

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ROSTER
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2015 Estimated Player Salary -- Name, Age, Birthplace

750k -- Federico Higuain 30 Argentina
380k -- Emanuel Pogatetz 31 Austria
300k -- Michael Parkhurst 30 USA
250k -- Kei Kamara 30 Sierra Leone
180k -- Tony Tchani 25 Cameroon
175k -- Steve Clark 28 USA
160k -- Waylon Francis 24 Costa Rica
160k -- Wil Trapp 21 USA
150k -- Ethan Finlay 24 USA
150k -- Kristinn Steindorsson 24 Iceland
125k -- Ben Swanson 17 USA
100k -- Justin Meram 26 USA
100k -- Mohammed Saeid 24 Sweden
90k -- Tyson Wahl 30 USA
80k -- Hector Jimenez 26 USA
70k -- Ben Speas 23 USA
52k -- Aaron Schoenfeld 24 USA
52k -- Romain Gall 19 France
52k -- Kevan George 24 Tobago
52k -- Chad Barson 23 USA
52k -- Matt Lampson 25 USA
52k -- Brad Stuver 23 USA
52k -- Ben Sweat 23 USA
48k -- Adam Bedell 23 USA

• Median age: 24
• Median Wage: 100k

Further Comments:
Working on surprisingly few unknowns considering the league and players are negotiating a new agreement but there are a few "ifs" here and there.

IF - rosters shrink to 25 then CCSC are fairly set going into the new year. I would expect a few players to be shuffled around in the next two months, though. On that list would be Ben Speas, Chad Barson and possibly Justin Meram and either Brad Stuver or Matt Lampson.

IF - the salary budget number jumps even just the league's normal 5%, CCSC are in really good shape.

IF - the salary budget increased more than 25% then I might be underestimating Finlay and Meram's pay jump.

As things stand right now I don't expect there to be any surprises to the starting lineup. I do think Kristinn Steindorsson was brought on to be CCSC's Left Midfielder if he gets acclimated to the league. I believe Mohammad Saeid was brought on to help bolster the midfield but could become the man to come in for Higuain, bumping Speas down the CM bench or moving him to depth on the wings.

Closing Thoughts:
With the roster above CCSC will enter 2015 in good shape. I wouldn't expect them to finish any lower than 5th in the East or 10th overall in the league. That said, I do not think they are anywhere close to the Supporters' Shield or winning the MLS Cup.

Weaknesses include the lack of a real right wing back and more depth up top in a scoring role - A weakness that was hidden due to spectacular years by Ethan Finlay and Justin Meram. I also think the team is weak at center back. I would expect both starters to miss time to general wear and tear this year and there isn't much behind them so far (or really anything with no Josh Williams or Eric Gehrig). Tyson Wahl is the only option right now *when* one (or both) go down.

The offseason holds a lot of surprises, to be sure. We'll see how things go - but for now, not a bad starting point.

On Mega-Corporations, Hedge Funds, Risk Management, and Faith in Major League Soccer

By: Vidda "JibJab" Grubin

If you have failed to recover sufficiently from your New Year’s celebration and the blue-ball shattering cold of early this week, you may not have heard, Michael Bradley of U.S. men’s national team fame has decided to return to Major League Soccer. Bradley will be playing for Toronto F.C. Your opinion of Bradley’s move undoubtedly falls somewhere at or between “OMFG! Awesome!” and “What a dumb-ass move, we just lost the World Cup.”

While both of the above opinions are equally extreme and speak to your need to get off the internets and find a significant other, I have no intention of addressing Mr. Bradley’s wanderings from that particular perspective. Rather, I would like you to give me a few moments of your precious soccer-blog reading time as I neatly couch this most recent Major League Soccer signing in terms of our league’s past, present and future.

First off, I have a great deal of faith in Major League Soccer and the people in charge.

Beginning in 1993 in Lamar Hunt’s cheap whiskey smelling, smoke filled, subterranean lair, where a handful of really rich guys played Texas Holdem to see who would own the rights to the Los Angeles franchise, through the lean years of the late 90’s and early 2000’s, the cabal known as Huntgarbschutz has navigated the peaks and valleys with amazing dexterity and forethought.

Many new owners, teams, stadiums and players later, Major League Soccer is truly poised to join the big boys of American professional sports. And yet, the Michael Bradley signing has tapped into a deep, long forgotten well of pessimism inside my head. (Ahh, you instinctually clever individuals are saying “Pessimism is never far from the surface with this one.” And you would be correct, but that is of no matter presently)

To get to the seething river of pessimism let’s establish a baseline. Your mileage may vary. 

1. What constitutes the solid base of MLS? A number of factors, obviously, but let’s find two. A) The well managed fiscal structure of the league and B) The growing physical presence, i.e. soccer specific stadiums.

2. What springs from 1? A) Consistency, which allows the league to acquire/develop better players, sponsors, tv contracts and B) Permanence, which gives team supporters/fans a warm feeling in their soccer loving souls.

Now that we have established what the significant foundational factors are for MLS (I realize there’s more to it. Do you want this column to be twenty pages long?), why the pessimism?

Michael Bradley, Clint Dempsey, Jermain Defoe and other similar signings in the future are so out-of-whack with the general structure of the league that it’s hard not to be a bit worried. Consider a quote from a Wall Street Journal article from September 24, 2010.

“David Beckham and Landon Donovan of the Galaxy and Rafael Marquez, Juan Pablo Angel and the injured Thierry Henry of the Red Bulls make a combined $21.7 million in guaranteed compensation from their clubs. This represents about 30% of the entire league payroll of $71.3 million, according to MLS Players Union figures.”

The above quote throws cold water on my seething pessimism and lends it credence. Most of those signings went well for Major League Soccer. The Beckham cult of personality paid for itself, but only a few players in the world can have the same effect. Michael Bradley and Jermain Defoe do not fit into the Beckham category, and therein lies the rub.

The incredible difference between the haves and the have nots, can’t be good for the long term viability of the league, right? I don’t think so, but that doesn’t make it so, unless I can convince you. The MLS players who produce at the same level as the Bradley’s and Beckham’s surely aren’t too happy when they see the fifty-fold discrepancy in pay. And when taken in context of what is possibly the most player-driven-team-oriented-sport on the planet, the feelings of inequality seem inevitable and counterproductive.

Certainly a handful of Major League Soccer players moping like five-year-olds who lost video game privileges because they don’t make the dollars they think they should isn’t going to fly the league into a tailspin; but, what about peering at the issue from an owner’s point of view. Again some background.

The North American Soccer League (NASL) of the 70’s and early 80’s, the one which attracted players like Cruyff, Pele, and Best is the cautionary tale which has kept the current owners of Major League Soccer from reaching too far, too fast...so far.

Why did the NASL fail?

Most importantly they didn’t take care of the base, that part I mentioned, you know, the fiscal and the physical. Yet, even without having built from the ground up, they might have survived if not for the hubris of the league’s owners. There were no curbs in place to keep the egos which accompany those who so often succeed in the realm of big business and finance from veering off the proper path.

Those owners drove their own league into the ground because they couldn’t control themselves. I have an inkling that you and I are seeing what just might be the beginnings of the same problem for MLS. Like the NASL owners of thirty years ago the Major League Soccer owners of today are fudging their own risk averse rules and starting to throw money around like its so much toilet paper.

Do you think the NASL owners personally went broke, and thus the league went away? Maybe one or two did, but what really happened was a bunch of rich guys got tired of losing money, and so, they stopped; because, that’s what rich guys do. If enough of the billionaires running MLS lose money long enough, they will get bored; they will find other outlets for their egos. (Pro Tiddlywinks League?)

In short, I hope my faith in the Garbers, Precourts, Leiwekes and Hunts of the world is justifiably placed. I hope they have hedged their big money moves, i.e. Michael Bradley, with more foundation building. You know, downtown soccer specific stadiums in places like Orlando, Miami, Minnesota, Atlanta, Boston, Columbus (please, Mr. Precourt, Brewery district is my fave), big money long term broadcast and sponsorship deals, and a significant increase of the salary cap/minimum salary (Say to a cool $5/6 mill/$75 thou) so that the overall quality of the league leaps forward.

If the only thing happening is individual owners spending their own money for a few big name players, that’s not good. That’s really not good. Solely trusting the vanity and perception of the human individual has always, always, led to disaster. There must be balance, and when I say balance, I’m talking balanced books and balanced perspective...Because  

Nothing ruins the beautiful game in the long run like a handful of prima-donnas (owners and players both) trying to convince knowledgeable fans that the game is about personalities and strutting egos. It’s not. It never has been. It never will be.

December Crew Budget Snapshot

Here's an updated high level look at the Crew 2014 budget.

Total $$ (in millions) : Description : Player Count
___________________________________________________

$ 1.74 : 2013 Out : 11 cut

$ 0.32 : 2014 Off Season In : 4 signed

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$ 3.78 : 2013 YE Guaranteed Salary Total

$ 2.57 : 2014 Current est Salary (w/ est increases) : 23 on roster

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$ 1.81 : 2014 est Budget (Cap) Hit : 13 players to cap

$ 3.10 : 2014 MLS Budget (Cap) Number : 30 max roster size

$ 1.30 : 2014 Crew Budget (Cap) Space : 7 open slots

___________________________________________________

PLAYERS OUT
2013 Guaranteed Salary : Name

361,250 : Chad Marshall
263,333 : Glauber Berti
230,000 : Matias Sanchez
225,375 : Jairo Arrieta
195,000 : Eddie Gaven
175,000 : Danny O'Rourke
93,887 : Andy Gruenebaum
80,500 : Aaron Horton
46,500 : Konrad Warzycha
35,125 : Kyle Hyland
35,125 : Drew Beckie

PLAYERS IN
EST 2014 Guaranteed Salary : Name

120,000 : Waylon Francis
96,600 : Daniel Paladini
52,000 : Matt Wiet
46,000 : Brad Stuver

2014 BUDGET, By Player
Estimated "cap" hit players, with est pay increase

$375,000 : Federico Higuaín (DP, I)
$274,534 : Dominic Oduro
$162,750 : Tony Tchani
$142,200 : Agustin Viana
$133,350 : Wil Trapp (HGP)
$120,000 : Waylon Francis (I)
$115,000 : Josh Williams
$96,600 : Daniel Paladini
$87,151 : Justin Meram
$84,700 : Tyson Wahl
$79,920 : Ryan Finley*
$67,284 : Ethan Finlay*
$66,960 : Ben Speas* (HGP)

*depends on new signings in coming months

Estimated off budget players

$52,080 : Aaron Schoenfeld
$52,080 : Bernardo Anor (I)
$52,080 : Chad Barson (HGP)
$52,080 : Eric Gehrig
$52,080 : Kevan George
$52,080 : Matt Lampson (HGP)
$52,000 : Matt Wiet (HGP)
$46,000 : Brad Stuver
$42,150 : Daniel Withrow
$42,150 : Shawn Sloan

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ROSTER NOTES

HGP: There is some gray area with Homegrown Players (HGP) in regards to their budget hit. It use to be all were treated as Generation Adidas type players (meaning no cap hit) but then, a couple years ago, it looked like it may be just a max of two that don't hit the cap.

I think the HGP cap hit gray area comes from the fact that no HGPs were making enough to hit the cap until, well, this year (and the Crew leading the way). I'm leaving them marked at 'on budget'.

Raises: I've given raises to returning players based on observations I've made since the last CBA. I am expecting Williams and Oduro to be getting significant pay increases(about 2x previous salary). For Williams, I am using Justin Morrow's 2012 pay jump (50k to 120k) as a road map.

OPEN SLOTS

The Columbus Crew have 7 open roster spots remaining. I would expect almost all of them to be starter quality (100-200k) with 3-4 of them being internationals (I).

Here is what I expect the priorities to be with the remaining 7 slots and $1.3 million in budget space:

1. Goal Scorer ($250-350k)
2. Center Back (200-250k)
3. Right Midfielder (200-250k)
4. Right Wing Back (150-200k)

Crew Roster + Budget Snapshot

The Columbus Crew have had a busy roster move week so it's worthwhile to take a quick look at where things stand with the team.

RECENT PLAYER TRANSACTIONS

IN: Waylon Francis
IN: Matt Wiet
IN: Brad Stuver

RE-SIGNED: Josh Williams

OUT: Glauber
OUT: Matias Sanchez
OUT: Jairo Arrieta*
OUT: Eddie Gaven
OUT: Danny O'Rourke*
OUT: Dominic Oduro*
OUT: Andy Gruenebaum*
OUT: Aaron Horton
OUT: Konrad Warzycha
OUT: Kyle Hyland
OUT: Drew Beckie

*Players believed to be in contract restructuring negotiations. Players agreeing to reduced deals with existing team is a moderately rare event in MLS.

CURRENT ROSTER BREAKDOWN

Budget Hit : Name, Pos 2013 Base Salary
---------------------------------------
YES: Federico Higuaín, M 440k
YES: Chad Marshall, D 330k
YES: Tony Tchani, M 130k
YES: Agustin Viana, D 105k
YES: Wil Trapp, M 100k
YES: Waylon Francis, D 100k*
YES: Josh Williams, D 88k*
YES: Tyson Wahl, D 76k
YES: Ben Speas, M 62k
YES: Justin Meram, M 56k
YES: Ryan Finley, F 47k
YES: Ethan Finlay, M 47k
NO: Matt Wiet, D 46k*
NO: Aaron Schoenfeld, F 47k
NO: Bernardo Anor, M 47k
NO: Chad Barson, D 47k
NO: Eric Gehrig, D 47k
NO: Kevan George, M 47k
NO: Matt Lampson, GK 47k
NO: Brad Stuver, GK 47k*
NO: Daniel Withrow, GK 47k
NO: Shawn Sloan, M 47k

*Estimating new or re-signed player salaries.

Budget hit is what counts towards the league mandated "salary cap".

Only players 1-20 on each roster count towards the cap (1st team players). Teams fill those slots with players making about $80k and up with projected starters making >$100k.

Isolating the player that count to the MLS Budget along with projected 2014 wages (YOY wages, on average, increase between 10-15%):

$369k Federico Higuaín (DP)
$363k Chad Marshall
$143k Tony Tchani
$115k Agustin Viana
$110k Wil Trapp
$110k Waylon Francis
$88k Josh Williams
$83k Tyson Wahl
$68k Ben Speas
$61k Justin Meram
$52k Ethan Finlay
$51k Ryan Finley
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$1.62 million

The players above are who Gregg Berhalter and company are planning to have locked in the 18 each game day. Since there are only 12 players here that leaves about 8 more open spots for "MLS level" players (>$80k).

This fits perfectly with the roster already at 22 players.

EIGHT SLOTS TO FILL

So who and what type of player will be filling the final 8 to budget spots?

SLOTS 1,2 maybe 3: Forwards. Crew only have Schoenfeld and Finley right now (Meram should be there, but will not). They will likely be spending big here. Oduro, Arrieta are still out there, yes. Wouldn't be surprised to see new faces though.

SLOT 4: Easy one: the 4th overall draft pick in the upcoming SuperDraft (he will likely be in the 60-90k pay range).

SLOT 5,6: Midfielders. The Crew are already crawling with mids but lack solid starters. Wil Trapp and Higuain are the only two that are locks. Anor? Maybe. Personally would like to see Speas get full games. I believe Berhalter will be looking for another CDM to push Trapp (or start over him) as well. Either way, MF weakest area in '13, needs improved. They will be shopping here.

SLOT 7,8: Defenders. With Marshall the only player to be locked into the starting back line the team will be on the hunt for defenders. Heath Pearce or Brad Rusin were just released and could be options. I would expect him to be a target to play next to Marshall. On the wings I think it will be Williams on the right and Francis (or Viana) on the left.

MY BUDGET PLAY SHEET

I have a few MLS budget sheets that I mess around with, even one's for other teams. This might be blasphemy in the world of sports blogging (particularly MLS where very few step out of their own team's bubble). Never the less, I do it. Reason being: a general understanding of a team's cap position is the single most important thing in MLS. Team budgets are ever present and is behind everything.

It's not perfect but I think it gets me close enough.

Questions, comments? Feel free to email me at ljbaby654(at)gmail.com

Crew Roster Update, In Flux

Here is an updated summary on the Crew roster as far as I can figure going into this weekend.

SALARY CAP SUMMARY (estimated)

$2.22 Million : Salary to Cap

$2.95 Million : 2013 MLS Cap*

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$730k : Open Cap Space

Salary to cap includes my own estimates on wage increases over last year. Overall, I'm including a 8.6% pay increase from players with contracts carrying over to the Crew.

ROSTER SIZE (estimate)

23 : Players with Crew Contracts (20 : to Cap)

9 : Players "on Trial"

32 : Total

PLAYERS UNDER CONTRACT

OTHER DRAFTEES / TRIALISTS

Blake Brettschneider
Drew Beckie
Daniel Withrow
Reed Matte
Shawn Sloan
*Nate Bascom (ONU)
*Kyle Hyland (IUPUI)
*Krystian Witkowski (PHI)
*Sercan Güvenisik (SJE)

[*UPDATED, SAT JAN 26 2012: Added players. Thank you Erik Bobbitt for the Guvenisik note]

NOTES
I'm pretty sure that most the trialists have a strong shot of getting signed due to small roster size. Brettschneider would be a good get for the Crew and I'm basically calling Beckie signed.

Columbus has a mountain for salary cap space. Matias Sanchez is rumored to be heading to Columbus but is as of yet confirmed. I would not expect Sanchez to be a Designated player but would expect his salary to be at Mirosevic levels (200-250k).

In my roster image. Guys in blue are estimated. Not in blue but given a raise is Josh Williams. I suspect with him being pegged for a starting role he will make starting salary (65-100k for US born MLS players).

Keep an eye on Massive Report. I'll start posting this roster stuff there once the team takes better shape in the next couple weeks.

Crew Roster Update: Drop, Add, Limbo

The Columbus Crew made a handful of roster moves over the past week or so which include:

MILOVAN MIROSEVIC
Released from the 2nd year on his weighty $200k contract with the Crew. Reports say that no fees (or allocation) were paid to either the Crew or Major League Soccer, which seems strange. The stance from the Crew seems to be that of a jaded boyfriend though ('she wasn't that good anyway' type stuff). From my perspective, he was not worth the $200k (I can argue that almost no MLS players are). Freeing that space up is more valuable but for it to have taken this long sets the team back.

RYAN FINLEY
Ryan was drafted 9th overall. Last week I took a look at draftees over the past few seasons for MASSIVE REPORT and found that top 10 picks median is in the $65k range. I expect Ryan to be there as well.

DREW BECKIE
Another draft pick last week. Based on where Beckie was drafted I expect him to pull $44k and not count towards the salary cap number.

DILLY DUKA
From a Crew perspective the Duka trade with Chicago's Dominic Oduro seems all but done but I can't find a whole lot of interest from the Chicago side. I know that Chicago is really looking to dominate the MF like they have in the past couple years and that Duka could fill a top 18 need but it seems like more of a 'thing' for Columbus more than the Fire. Again, like with Mirosevic, it is way too late to do this kind of thing. The draft should have been the drop dead date for this deal and even then it was too late.

Duka staying with the Crew or not matters little to the overall salary cap hit. If the Crew trade for Oduro or not. The cap hit is likely around the $100k range. Ah. MLS. Gotta love all the non-value added change that ends up costing each club more than the actual deal. Go with it. Feel it - all you club "technical directors". Justify it. Make that move. YES. THE IMPORTANCE OF THIS MOVE.

Actually, over at Massive Report I talked about not making that move. It might mean more to keep your "core" together, no matter the cost. Check it out.

Barson Signs, Crew Cap and Roster Update

Chad Barson, a 6'10" 170 lbs Defender and multi-year starter from The University of Akron has joined the 2013 Crew roster as a Homegrown signing. For more information of the player check out the Akron website or the Official Columbus Crew outlet (which includes a rather awkward locker room picture).

With the addition of Barson the Crew roster ticks up to 22 players. Once the club roster fills up to 28-30 players I do not believe he will count towards the cap given the available information out there (roster spots 21-30 don't hit cap so this puts him in the $35-47k range).

Here are estimates by position, to date:
$860k : Midfield
$680k : Forward / Attacking
$630k : Defense
$85k : Goalkeeper
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$2.25 : TOTAL CAP HIT TO DATE

$645k : OPEN CAP SPACE

Here is a chart with the same information:

There are rumors that the club is close to two international signings (news via various twitter accounts including the Dispatch's Adam Jardy, who also quoted GM Mark McCullers addressing the office staff with, "We can win with this group." Implying that the Crew are comfortable with current roster going into the season. Key phrase, "can win" needs to change to "will win".

Empty Stables, Open Paddock

The Crew have a small roster. In fact it's the smallest roster in the league as of this post. This should bother you if you are a fan of the Columbus Crew because - teams with few returning players or those clubs with Major League Soccer experience - do rather poorly.

If reports about a few players are true then the Crew are just barely hanging on to a league low of 21 players signed. Emilio Renteria and Sebastian Miranda have recently been confirmed as not coming back and Danny O'Rourke and Tony Tchani were very close to not making it back.

Could it be that the difference between a disastrous/embarrassing 2013 campaign and a mid-table team rests on re-signing O'Rourke and Tchani? Right now, the answer is 'yes'.

Below is the club's current signed roster with estimated salaries. I will group them based on how they will be played in 2013. An asterisk* will be put next to players of whom I am estimating.

STARTERS
324,000 : Federico Higuain
310,000 : Chad Marshall
225,375 : Jairo Arrieta
223,333 : Milovan Mirosevic
190,000 : Eddie Gaven
100,000 : Danny O'Rourke*
78,667 : Andy Gruenebaum
70,560 : Josh Williams*

GAMEDAY 18 AND/OR IN RESERVE
100,000 : Tony Tchani*
75,000 : Tyson Wahl*
70,575 : Justin Meram
70,500 : Aaron Horton
60,000 : William Trapp*
59,000 : Ethan Finlay
58,000 : Ben Speas
47,187 : Bernardo Anor
47,080 : Eric Gehrig
47,080 : Matt Lampson
44,000 : Aaron Schoenfeld
44,000 : Kevan George

TRANSFER LISTED
110,000 : Dilaver Duka

This puts the club at $2.3 MIL towards the 2.95 MIL cap (Schoenfeld, George not counting towards cap). I expect the difference betwixt current salaries and cap will be used on starters.

YOUR 2013 CREW STARTING LINEUP
GK : Andy Gruenebaum

RB : Josh Williams
CB : Chad Marshall
CB : OPEN
LB : OPEN

MF : Danny O'Rourke
MF : OPEN
MF : Eddie Gaven
MF : Milovan Mirosevic

CAM : Federico Higuain
ST : Jairo Arrieta

With preseason just around the corner it's hard to say the Crew are in good shape. I don't feel it should be this hard to argue that success is in the cards. Too much change. No player development. Too little consistency. Questionable direction.

Crew Sign Wahl, Roster/Cap Update

Busy day today as the Crew Operations staff must be back from their holiday breaks.

• Tyson Wahl Signed
Wahl is a serviceable and experienced MLS player. He first saw time when he was drafted 19th in the "2006 SuperDraft"+ to KC. From there he went on to have productive years with Seattle before falling into an expansion draft vortex last year that few return from.

Columbus view him as a solid backup to whomever they end up signing for the Left Back position. The club has made it known that they want an international player in that role. "We've got some things in the works, but sometimes things go afoul and don't work out. If they don't work out, Tyson is our guy at leftback." - Brian Bliss to Cody Sharrett on Crew.com

My Thought: Tyson seems to want a chance to start but the Crew outright told him he is a 2nd choice to, well... a player they sign later on. My prediction? Hindsight will probably prove that keeping Nemanja Vukovic was the better option. His performance metrics were good to above average, the coaching staff just had a problem with his personality. Bad business.

• Brian Bliss shoots down Mirosevic Rumors
Craig Merz also had an article today that attempted to shoot down any chatter about Milovan Mirosevic going back home to Chile. Bliss went as far to say that Mirosevic's agent called him to "refute the article" floating around. They don't state which article it was but did confirm that it was "on the internet and all that".

• Sebastian Miranda isn't coming back.

• Emilio Renteria's Contract expired. [+++UPDATED]
To my knowledge, most Major League Soccer contracts expire on December 31st. Renteria's is probably no different. With that, he is no longer officially a Columbus Crew player. Hard to tell where new contract negotiations are so for now I've taken him off the club roster (along with his salary).

CAP UPDATE!

Adjusting for expected annual salary increases (7-12%) the Crew now sit around $2.25++ million to the $2.95 million cap and a total roster size of a whopping 21. This leaves around $700k to round out the roster.

I still expect three local kids to sign Homegrown deals that don't hit the cap (league minimums, ~$44k) that will take the roster to 24. What this means is that the Crew have that $700k waiting for 3-6 players. So, either they are going to pay some draft picks big salaries or they are looking to make a couple high profile signings along the likes of Mirosevic, Olman Vargas or Jairo Arrieta last year.

We'll see, I guess. Either way, plenty of bank remaining, interesting now that so many were let go. What happened to that cap excuse? Seems remarkably false now.

"It's a casualty of how the League is set-up and structured." - Bliss, Nov. 28th.

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+Of note on the 2006 MLS SuperDraft: Columbus picked Jason Garey (with Carolina Railhawks), Kei Kamara (Sporting KC) and Jed Zayner (retired this year) ahead of Tyson Wahl.

++A few salaries are estimated as MLS does not make this information public until spring. Danny O'Rourke and Tony Tchani, estimated at 100k. Wil Trapp, $60k (Tchani's may be low, hard to tell. Not many examples of GA players getting restructured like his). If you want more salary info you can email me at ljbaby654 @ gmail.

+++[UPDATE]Per thecrew.com Renteria not coming back. HC Warzycha "...we offered him a contract and he didn't take it. We haven't had a conversation with him the last couple of weeks."

MLS Rosters, Crew Smallest

The Columbus Crew are tied with Real Salt Lake with the least amount of players listed on their current rosters, 20.

I put a lot of weight into reducing roster turnover. The teams that are able to adapt to and retain within the restrictive and ever changing Major League Soccer rules will be rewarded with points.

I took a few minutes this evening to pull down the current team rosters of the 19 MLS teams from their official sites*.

PLAYERS ON ROSTER : TEAM
31 : Seattle
31 : LA
28 : Houston
28 : Portland
28 : KC
27 : Colorado

Interrupting the list here to point out the above clubs - who are pretty much set. Interesting to see Portland and Colorado up there. Many teams start the year out at 28 roster players because of the allocation money reward for the last two open slots (MLS max roster size is 30). SEA, LA, HOU and KC will be playoff teams in 2013.

26 : Philadelphia
25 : San Jose
25 : Chicago
24 : Dallas
24 : Chivas
23 : New York
23 : New England
22 : Vancouver
22 : DC
22 : Montreal
21 : Toronto
20 : Real Salt Lake
20 : Columbus

The teams down at the bottom here have to be careful. One of the key predictors of success in MLS is returning league minute gainers from the previous year. The Crew are returning 18 right now, which is good compared to last year but near the bottom as things sit right now. Seems most of the other teams in the league have gotten that memo.

Below is what is salary estimate for each club based on last reported MLS Player's Union numbers and current unlisted signings. This should only be taken as a general indication of where a club is.

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$ SALARY TO CAP (in millions) : TEAM
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NEAR / AT / OVER SALARY CAP
3.2 : Vancouver
3.2 : Portland
3.1 : New York
3.0 : Houston
2.9 : Toronto
2.9 : Seattle
2.8 : Colorado
2.7 : KC
2.7 : Philadelphia

SOME BREATHING ROOM
2.5 : San Jose
2.5 : Montreal
2.4 : Chicago
2.4 : LA
2.2 : Real Salt Lake
2.2 : Columbus
2.0 : New England
1.7 : DC
1.6 : Dallas
1.6 : Chivas

Again, this is just high level estimates. I've only gone as far as to take the roster list currently available on MLSsoccer.com and chop off the players 21-30 on the roster based on salary (below 47k). There are lots more push and pulls then that but with so much more activity in the coming weeks it will change day to day.

I've not included estimated pay increases, usually around 10% per club.

THAT SAID.

The Crew have cut too deep. They are always cutting. At some point they need to stop all the turnover and give themselves a chance to build some chemistry.

At this point, my advice would be to hunt down experienced talent. I know the Crew are inking deals with local kids but there is still space for weathered vets. I've written about some of the players in the USL but I also think bringing back players with MLS experience would greatly increase the club's fortunes next year and give them some space under the cap next year.

We'll see where the rest of this offseason goes. The Crew still have yet to fill 8-10 slots on the team.

Not sure where to even go with that.

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*Official MLS team franchise pages seem to be updated frequently, but I expect there to be some error (as with anything). Where I could I matched up with fan pages and blogs, so I'm confident roster numbers are very close to right. You can find team pages in the top nav menu of MLSsoccer.com

A Look at The Crew Salary Cap

Major League soccer is in the middle of a busy player transaction period so I thought I'd take a look at where the Columbus Crew are right now and how much space they have left to maneuver for new players.

INCENTIVE TO PUSH AND PULL

At the end of 2012 the Columbus Crew were carrying a Base Salary to Cap of $2,674,084 and a Guaranteed Salary to Cap of $3,265,459. The league mandated salary cap in 2012 was 2,810,000 which means the Crew were $135,916 clear in terms of base but $455,459 over when including max guaranteed numbers.

The difference between Base and Guaranteed to cap seemed high so I took a look at the whole league at the end of 2012. Turns out the Crew carried the heaviest difference between Base and Guaranteed contracts to cap in the league.

591,375 : CLB
478,350 : VAN
448,595 : POR
422,917 : TFC
411,254 : DC
374,429 : PHI
367,926 : HOU
365,503 : CHI
361,459 : LA

360,017 : MTL : MLS MEDIAN

325,109 : KC
309,075 : NE
296,729 : SJ
262,535 : RSL
253,530 : SEA
249,798 : COL
242,750 : DAL
212,780 : CHV
187,172 : NY

A closer look at the Crew's number revels that Federico Higuain's Base to Guaranteed difference of $164,000 takes the team from 3rd (without him) to 1st (with him). Because Higuain came to the club mid year his base hit to the cap was $160k but it's still interesting to me that the league posted the full guaranteed salary of $324k. I'm not sure we will ever know if Higuain triggered - none, all or part of that - my hunch is that he may have but for the sake of evaluation of the 2012 cap I'll take it out.

To cap and adding all incentives (guaranteed) the final 2012 number was a possible $3,101,459. That works out to be $291,459 over the MLS cap number of $2.8 million. What this likely means is that the Crew realized that large difference in base and guaranteed contracts could hurt them and needed to be controlled.

Below will be the difference between Base and Guaranteed by player. Keep in mind that to meet 2012 cap the Crew had to make sure $291k didn't trigger.

Incentive : Name
164,000 : Federico Higuain
133,000 : Dilaver Duka
104,000 : Tony Tchani
31,250 : Chad Marshall
24,375 : Justin Meram
23,333 : Milovan Mirosevic
17,500 : Nemanja Vukovic
16,875 : Rich Balchan
15,500 : Aaron Horton
12,500 : Danny O'Rourke
11,000 : William Hesmer
9,375 : Jairo Arrieta
7,000 : Chris Birchall
5,000 : Eddie Gaven
5,000 : Olman Vargas
5,000 : Sebastian Miranda
3,125 : Carlos Mendes
1,875 : Emilio Renteria
1,666 : Andy Gruenebaum

After taking Higuain off the list you can see that the easiest way to ensure not breaking the cap was by keeping the players with larger guaranteed contracts from triggering.

Fans familiar with the team will notice players that got jerked around at the top of the list.

DUKA, TCHANI, MERAM, VUKOVIC

Together the aggregate difference between base and guaranteed equaled $279k. Subtracting that amount from the guaranteed cap total puts the club within $12k of the salary cap. I'll never know if they had to make minutes to prevent the guaranteed contract from hitting or if was based on how much they actually play. Regardless, with that much of a difference the Crew did everything they could to minimize the impact of their max salary. It also explains some bizarre behavior both on the pitch (revolving Right Midfield position door) and off (Duka going home, good example).

ON TO 2013

The Crew now fall at $1,978,900 Base and $2,341,400 Guaranteed after the latest round of cuts. These numbers include Tony Tchani's last published salary of $105k base and $209k guaranteed so with his contract successfully renegotiated it's safe to assume that these numbers to be slightly high. Though, not much higher. I would guess Tchani's new deal is in the $100k range but no gaudy guaranteed number.

Adjusting for Tchani's new estimated contract we'll go with:

$1,978,900 Base
$2,237,400 Guaranteed

Last year (2011 to 2012) the Crew raised player salaries 11%. If we use that same % and apply it this year the number to cap look like this:

$2,196,579 Base
$2,483,514 Guaranteed

The 2013 MLS Salary Cap is $2,950,000 (reportedly). Here is the range in room the Crew have.

$753,421 Bast to Cap after 11% increase
$466,486 Guaranteed to Cap after 11% increase

Looking at it this way tells me that ongoing negotiations with O'Rourke, Miranda and Renteria would mean significant cuts to their 2012 wages. Their 2012 base number was $400k. That chews up 50% of remaining cap room and would make it near impossible to get the roster up to 25+ players.

NOW WHAT.

The Crew have 18 players signed up for 2013 and somewhere around $500-700k to play with. To get the roster to even 28 that means do not expect many (if any) high quality signings.

What is concerning is that the club cut so deep for Higuain and Arrieta and they did so at the back, in defense. This in turn lead to the spin/buzz phrase coming out of Columbus of: "An Evolving Core". What we are to take this as is that 2012 mid-season signings are now part of the club foundation on the field.

The Crew have themselves in a bit of a hole here and they will probably have to shop a few players away yet to make a full roster. Still lots of twists and turns left before next season starts up. Should be interesting.