Sunday, January 13, 2013

RETURNING v NOT, MR Accompaniment

This post accompanies a post over on MASSIVE REPORT.

In that post I talked about individual player results when starting. I didn't want it to go on forever and only wanted to focus on team results and not muddy the waters with other metics.

First things first though, I would like to publicly thank Patrick Guldan, Editor of MASSIVE REPORT for the invite to write there. Had a great time putting together my first post and hope folks enjoy what I put there.

ON PITCH Goal Diff vs. TOP HALF 2012 : GS
+1.00 : Cole Grossman 5
+0.80 : Nemanja Vukovic 5
+0.63 : Dilly Duka 8
+0.50 : Carlos Mendes 8
+0.00 : Justin Meram 10

-0.06 : Joshua Williams 16
-0.06 : Sebastián Miranda 16

-0.10 : Chris Birchall 10
-0.14 : Danny O´Rourke 7
-0.14 : Tony Tchani 7
-0.18 : Andy Gruenebaum 17
-0.24 : Eddie Gaven 17
-0.25 : Emilio Renteria 8
-0.40 : Jairo Arrieta 10
-0.60 : Julius James 5
-0.64 : Chad Marshall 11
-0.67 : Milovan Mirosevic 9

I'm posting GD in support of the Results when Starting metric on MASSIVE REPORT. They match up. One of the reasons I felt it needed supporting data is because this metric can be see as similar to W/L for a pitcher in baseball, which can be a very misleading measure. But because of the rules in soccer the way I'm using it would be like if every pitcher pitched minimum of 8 innings an outing. W/L would be much more reliable in that case. I believe it to be, anyway.

2011 PpGM vs. Top Half : GS
2.00 : Rich Balchan 8
1.86 : Kevin Burns 7
1.73 : Eddie Gaven 11
1.57 : Emmanuel Ekpo 14
1.44 : Chad Marshall 16
1.43 : Julius James 14
1.43 : Tom Heinemann 7
1.40 : Dejan Rusmir 5
1.40 : Emilio Renteria 5
1.36 : Joshua Gardner 11
1.35 : Sebastián Miranda 17
1.25 : Will Hesmer 16
1.14 : Andrés Mendoza 14
1.08 : Robbie Rogers 13
0.63 : Dilly Duka 8

whoa! Hadn't looked at 2011 till recently. Balchan contributed greatly when facing tougher teams. You'll alo note that the team did much better against stronger competition. I'm convinced that had this year been a balanced schedule the Crew might have really suffered (feed off bad teams in east). In 2011 the team finished with 1.40 Pts per Game vs top half (1.18 in 2012, huge drop).

Avg GD on Pitch vs TOP HALF as Substitute : GS
+0.50 : Kevan George 2

0.00 : Aaron Schoenfeld 3
0.00 : Bernardo Anor 1
0.00 : Emilio Renteria 4
0.00 : Julius James 2
0.00 : Milovan Mirosevic 1
0.00 : Nemanja Vukovic 2
0.00 : Tony Tchani 5

-0.17 : Ethan Finlay 6
-0.33 : Olman Vargas 3
-0.40 : Dilly Duka 5
-0.50 : Danny O´Rourke 2
-0.50 : Eric Gehrig 2
-0.50 : Federico Higuaín 2
-0.50 : Justin Meram 4
-0.50 : Shaun Francis 2
-1.00 : Chris Birchall 1
-1.00 : Cole Grossman 2
-1.00 : Matt Lampson 1

Not enough here to really go on, not enough. I will say the difference between what these players do as subs is a lot worse then how they do as starters. Indicating they aren't being used properly.

The team got outscored 23 to 10 when facing top half when putting subs on. Yikes! Doesn't get much better when looking at all opponents: outscored 39 to 29 when subs were on. Man. Gonna have to look more into this. Not good results.

Justin Meram probably got the most attention as a sub. Overall he went 7 goals for and 3 against. All 7 of those goals came against weaker competition.

Duka, probably predictably, did not do well as a sub going 2 GF with 5 against, overall. Which is much worse then is starting data.

TOTAL TIMES USED A SUB 2012
11 : Renteria, Meram, Finlay
8 : Tchani
6 : Anor, Duka, Schoenfeld
5 : James, Grossman
4 : Vargas, Francis, Gehrig
3 : Vukovic, O´Rourke, George, JWilliams
2 : Lampson, Higuaín
1 : Birchall, Heinemann, MMirosevic
These two illustrations come from an unused absinthe fueled post that chopped individual player results into THREE categories (top 5, middle 9, bottom 5) THEN chopped them into 1st half and 2nd half of the season. That worked out to be 6 different categories of results to explain. Too much!

Finally, here's a list of all 39 different Crew starters since the start of 2011:

Aaron Schoenfeld, Andrés Mendoza, Andy Gruenebaum, Andy Iro, Ben Speas, Bernardo Anor, Carlos Mendes, Chad Marshall, Chris Birchall, Cole Grossman, Danny O´Rourke, Dejan Rusmir, Dilly Duka, Eddie Gaven, Emilio Renteria, Emmanuel Ekpo, Eric Gehrig, Ethan Finlay, Federico Higuaín, Jairo Obando Arrieta, Jeff Cunningham, Joshua Gardner, Joshua Williams, Julius James, Justin Meram, Kevan George, Kevin Burns, Kirk Urso, Matt Lampson Milovan Mirosevic, Nemanja Vukovic, Olman Vargas, Rich Balchan, Robbie Rogers, Sebastián Miranda, Shaun Francis, Tom Heinemann, Tony Tchani, Will Hesmer.

Lots of great players in there.

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