Sunday, March 31, 2013

MLS Team Ranking

Major League Soccer Team Ranking based on my own player rankings (right hand column). Good to bad.

1 : A CLASS ABOVE
LA Galaxy

2 : EXCELLENT
Montreal Impact, Houston Dynamo, FC Dallas, Sporting KC and Chivas USA

3 : TOP HALF
Vancouver Whitecaps, Columbus Crew, Philadelphia Union

4 : IN THE MIX
San Jose Earthquakes, Real Salt Lake, Toronto FC, New York Red Bull

5 : OUTSIDE LOOKING IN
New England Revolution, DC United, Portland

6 : 2014
Colorado Rapids, Seattle Sounders, Chicago Fire

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My player rankings take easily available player stats and pull out what I find valuable (metrics/measurements not totals). From there I mix in overall team statistics, which pulls good players on good teams to the top.

For this team rank I rated each team by position (D, F, MF, GK) and place on the table to get order. I also mix in variance between positional rank (to penalize teams with weak spots).

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The Crew would have been in the EXCELLENT category were it not for the injury to Eddie Gaven, the absence of Jario Arrieta, addition of Ben Speas and the Dominic Oduro move from MF to F last week. Might not seem like it, but from this outside (comparatively with other teams) this looks like the Crew MF is not settled through just four games.

MLS Combined True Table can be found on the top right of this blog.

Saturday, March 30, 2013

MLS Attendance is Down

Through the first 34 games overall attendance is -10.2% from last year. The last time Major League Soccer had an aggregate drop in attendance year over year was 2002.

2012 Total : 698,308
2013 Total : 626,765

Some might be quick to point out that CenturyLink Field had three matches in the first 34 in 2012 and only two this year. With that venue adding nearly 40k fans a game, it's significant. Think of it as almost a 2 for 1 deal for the league. Twice the attendance for one game (more like 2.5x but keeping it simple).

To account for Seattle you can simply take them out of the equation or use average attendance as measure or get creative.

1. Taking Seattle Out:
Because they played 3 games through the first 34 last year and 2 this year that would leave us comparing 31 and 32 games yr over yr, so another one would have to come off the books to even it up. To try and help MLS let's exclude the poorly attended Gillette Stadium game this year.

-6.9% DOWN FROM LAST YEAR
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2. Average Attendance
Another way to do it is just use averages for each venue and see how that looks. Playing with averages is dabbling in the dark arts. Actually, worse than that but still... Last year the league was averaging around 21k per match, this year around 19k.

-7.7% DOWN FROM LAST YEAR
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3. Remove Outlying Venues
CenturyLink is High, Buck Shaw is Low and the game at Marlins Park, Miami last year is random. Taking all of these matches out of the yr over yr total will give us a better idea of the overall health of ticket sales this year. What it has done is leave us with 29 games from both years to compare.

-6.3% DOWN FROM LAST YEAR
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EARLY ON

Should be interesting as the season rolls on but a drop in attendance is certainly something the league is very sensitive to. I'll keep watching but I would expect the trend to continue at around 6-8% drop on the year. This would be an ego blow for a league that has been pushing attendance numbers on its fans for years so I would expect another expansion side to be expedited into the league ASAP.

OTHER OBSERVATIONS

• Seattle's 3 home games were 16% of overall ticket sales through first 34 last year. 2 games this year is 12% of total.

• Toronto moving their home game indoors this year actually helped the over all 2013 number. BMO max is 20k but they pulled 25k by moving the game indoors to the SkyDome (Rogers Centre).

• Home Depot Center saw 5 games each in in first 34 both years. Chivas attendance has been atrocious. Overall HDC is down 15878 from last year.

• Overall dip in attendance is -71,543

• You can find all data HERE.

• Here is a link to old NASL attendance data if you are interested.

• The post image comes from NASL Memories. Go there. Spend time. Let it wash over your soul.

[ADDING; Median attendance per game 2012: 19,009 and 2013: 18,077]

Thursday, March 28, 2013

Massive Report Podcast (pic)


Here's a picture taken by the podcast's producer (the wonderful Sameh Safaa Fahmi) this past Monday. In it is Mr. Chris LaMacchia (right), Justin Bell's hand reaching for beer, host Rick Gethin going Hunter S. Thompson and myself on the far left trying to keep up.

Normal program host Matt Goshert will be back in a couple weeks after he is finished running around England getting all football educated.

The podcast records Monday evenings around 730-800 PM at Hendoc's (just on the north side of Lane Ave on High St in Columbus, OH -- on the college side of life but I balance it out and the company is great, promise).

Recent MR podcasts can be found at Massive Report.

Wednesday, March 27, 2013

Crew v Fire Reserve Match


Chicago traveled a small group of players down to Columbus to take on the Crew. The game was originally scheduled to be at Crew Stadium but had to be moved due to a snow storm the day before.

CREW STARTERS : QUICK NOTE
Matt Lampson : Didn't see a whole lot, Chicago chances off target
Drew Beckie : Played very well, got up and down right side
Eric Gehrig : Feisty, did well with blocks / headed clearances
Kevan George : Solid, Gehrig seemed to do heavy lifting though
Chad Barson : Impressive on the left side
Matias Sanchez : Not bad, neutral performance for me
Tony Tchani : Good cross on goal to Warzycha, otherwise quiet
Konrad Warzycha : Right spot for goal, good effort
Ethan Finlay : Kept up his preseason form, great cross / assist
Ryan Finley : Okay, better with Higuain behind him (obviously)
Justin Meram : Dangerous, played pretty angry

SUBS : QUICK NOTE
Kyle Hyland 46’ : Involved a alot, did well
Aaron Schoenfeld, 46’ : Improved handle from last year, but quiet
Wil Trapp, 61' : 1st time seeing him, played forward, nothing to note
Bernardo Anor, 66’ : Fantastic to see him, great 24 minutes, goal
Shawn Sloan, 93’ : on for injured Tchani

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Here is how the Fire looked:

Chicago Fire: Paolo Tornaghi, Joel Leon, Michael Jiminez, Hunter Jumper, Leo Silva Lelis, Oscar Gonzalez, Brendan King, Yazid Atouba, Corben Bone, Colin Rolfe, Quincy Amarkiwa

FIRE NOTES:

- Amarkiwa was barking at all 3 refs all game, "you f-ing suck, man." He was playing frustrated most of the morning missing his chances.

- Felt Bone and Jumper played well.

- Colin Rolfe was credited with the goal.

- Leo Silva Lelis was a liability and was sent off late after a dumb challenge on Schoenfeld.

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Here are some more pictures from the game...

Sunday, March 24, 2013

Rd 4: Win at RFK

Columbus beats the odds and grabs all three points away in Washington DC 1:2 with both goals from NE Ohio born players. This was easily one of the more engaging games of the young MLS season.

1ST HALF
Columbus came ready to play and was as dominate and threatening in the first 20 minutes as they have been all year. DC made no adjustments to deal with Federico Higuain in the midfield and, well, generally looked unprepared.

The Crew still struggling to get anything from open play but just reward came from yet another set piece off the foot of Tyson Wahl and head of Josh Williams in the 15'. Somewhat against the run of play, DC was able to equalize in the 22' off some lazy defending from Glauber and with a touch of magic from (man-child) Rafael.

Crisis struck DC a few minutes later as Nick DeLeon went down with what appeared to be a hamstring problem.

As time ticked down on the frantic 1st half teams were relatively deadlocked.

2ND HALF
Started much like the first, entertaining. With DeLeon missing and his replacement (Kyle Porter) a steep drop off from his talent, the Crew were able to control most of the happenings in the middle.

Again, reward from the Crew did not come from open play. It came from a corner that bounced around and found Ben Speas atop the 18 yd box. Speas whipped in a laser for his first career goal.

From there Columbus slipped back to defend and held DC off though both good defending and a couple amazing saves from Andy Gruenebaum.

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CONCLUSIONS
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• This game held all the hallmarks of a Ben Olsen DCU game. Which is to say, chaos.

• There was a somewhat controversial offside call that pulled back a DC goal as well as Chad Marshall pulling down Chris Pontius in the box that probably should have been a PK

• Match official Allen Chapman let things go this match, stopping the action very few times. 16 total fouls this game (about half what a normal match gets).

• So few fouls made for a wide open affair and this approach is probably calculated by the league. Fewer fouls and Red Cards this year.

• Josh Williams getting forward like a madman in the first 20 minutes. I've seen this before from him, most notably (and frustratingly) in the Dayton Dutch Lions game last year. He seemingly wants to win the game single-handedly. This is a quality trait.

• 4 of 7 Crew goals this year are from set pieces.

• Moving Oduro out of the midfield was the key to this match. While no goals came from open play, it did play up to the level of their opponent. Something that was missing from past two games.

• Eddie Gaven got a yellow for simulation around the box. It's been a while coming. Over the past couple years Eddie has racked up the most 'fouls suffered' in the league by going down very easy. It's become a bad habit for him. While he does look extra frail this year (man, does he), he's got the skill to work through fouls, he needs to stop going to ground.

• Ben Speas has been playing great. Good to see him get a win in a start away with the game winning goal. Well done.

Saturday, March 23, 2013

Predictions: Crew v DC rd 4

Good Morning,

Crew are on the road today taking on DC United near my old stomping grounds and in one of the monuments of my youth, RFK Stadium. Game starts at 3:30 PM EST and is on the NBC Sports Network.

GAME NOTES
• Jario Arrieta is on international duty with Costa Rica, probably thawing out right now after last night's loss to the US in snowy Colorado.
• The status of Eddie Gaven isn't clear but would expect him to play.
• Would not expect Eddie to be 100%, he's only played 90 mins this year.
• So, DC hasn't lost at home in 19 games.
• DC posted most pts of any team at home last year with 40.
• Their goal diff at home was +20 last year.
• Without Arrieta, Crew will be starting new man up top. Dominic Oduro or Ryan Finley are options.

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PREDICTIONS

WV Hooligan Drew Epperley has DC pulling this one out noting the absence of Arrieta being key; "Dominic Oduro is no replacement in my book." Drew says it'll be 1:2 DC United.

The Reader Prediction section of Goal.com is very heavy DC win or Draw, combined 83% with a DC win 57.1%. Not the most reliable predictor, but should be considered in conjunction with other predictions.

The dudes and one lady on the MLSsoccer.com site PICK 'EM feature are all in on DC. 5 pick DC and one Draw. Leader of the pack over there is Matt Doyle right now with 42% (11 of 26) correct. Jason Saghini is low at 27% (7 of 26). Check out their site so you can keep up on what your kids are doing online.

On to Bet365. Big day here for Helltown, it's the first ever EVENS on this feature. DC has a 1/1 chance of a win, draw 23/10 and Crew win at 14/5.

WinDrawWin, the betting aggregate site, tells us this DC's game to lose. It reminds us of the Crew away form over last five of 2 W, 0 D, 5 L and the 10 GF and 13 against in those games. Loose. The very accurate predictor 'your vote' has DC at 42% chance of win with 37% picking draw (falling right around Goal.com's fan prediction).

Don't have the Dispatch at my door as of the time of this writing, will update with Adam Jardy's thoughts later today. UPDATE: Jardy thinks the key to a Crew win is the defense eliminating mental mistakes. He's not leaning either way.

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MY PREDICTION

I will have to go back and check my notes but not sure the Crew have played in a game predicted to be this one sided. I see this kind of stuff in the Premier League but not in MLS. Not even Toronto pulled evens against last year from what I observed.

DC has to lose at home at some point but don't see that happening here. Regular DC starter Dejan Jakovic will be out on Canada duty but it shouldn't hurt them too much. Marcos Sanchez is also out on international duty with Panama.

For the Crew to pull this one out it will take apathy or overconfidence on DC's side and a motivated starting group from Columbus.

It's possibly a good thing that Arrieta is away for this game. The unknown lineup might play in the Crew's favor in some ways. Personally I would like to see two players in front of Higuain but I see Columbus sticking with Viana and O'Rourke in DM roles (which is basically 6 in the back).

Crew have an opportunity to make some noise that's for certain. Should be a great game.

Tuesday, March 19, 2013

Abruptly, Suddenly and With Damage

MLS Round 3 round-up in the books over at Massive Report. Got crazy with the doodles this week. First up is the top 11 image that actually only has 10 players. It got tricky and crowded. + All the best players are Montreal. It got tedious for this early on in the season.



The post title image was a Archer like Ben Speas image. He's a big story these first three games. It's interesting to me that he is playing as well as he is. Makes you wonder how well some of the other guys like Ethan Finlay, Justin Meram, Eric Gehrig, and Aaron Horton would do with regular season minutes.

I was listening to Archie Bell and the Drells when I put it together. A bit before my time and certainly before Speas time, but great song. Felt it fit his playing style, his rhythm. It seemed to click so I went with it. Also, in a strange way it looks like a Sports Illustrated cover from the flip side.



Anyhow, check out the round-up. I thought about addressing the fact that Cody Sharrett did a round up for the Crew dot com recently after never doing it, but I didn't. I actually hope/wish club site would do more league stuff. Get's them looking outside their own bubble and all. Crew need some of that.

Actually. A lot of that.

Sunday, March 17, 2013

Morrow - Williams, Final Whistle

Crew Rd 3 : Draw Home Open

In their first Home match of the season it's Columbus 1:1 San Jose.

1ST HALF
Lots of energy from the players and reported 16k in the stands an a few good chances. Biggest chance of the half came from Josh Williams to Ben Speas when the former found the latter in the six yard box.

"That's magic created by Northeast Ohio!" was the shout I got. Turns out that NE Ohio had some more magic in store, just later in the match.

San Jose played it very safe in the first half and were able to successfully bottle up both Jairo Arrieta and Federico Higuain.

2ND HALF
San Jose came out of their shell a little bit more in the 2nd half after feeling confident they could contain the only goal scoring threats the Crew have. In fact, the did contain them all game save for the one they couldn't do anything about.

Higuain placed a perfect ball to an unmarked and streaking Glauber off a corner to provide the home sides goal.

San Jose continued to keep the game open for then next 10 minutes with really no threat coming from the Crew. They were rewarded with Cleveland's own Justin Morrow put a beautifully weighted and placed ball past Andy Gruenebaum in the 73'.

"That's magic created again by Northeast Ohio," was mumbled.

The final 15 minutes were played open but with little discipline on either side. In fact only one shot on frame was created in the last quarter hour despite the openness.

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GAME THOUGHTS

• Arrieta was gassed by 70th minute. SJ defender Victor Bernárdez will do that to you. Arrieta ended up with only one shot.

• Higuain was having to get creative and pop up in new areas (for him) to find the ball. The gameplan for SJ was clear. Keep him out of dangerous spots. It worked.

• SJ looked better in the outfield than the Crew. SJ are a very banged up club right now, had they had just one or two of their missing pieces this would have been embarrassing for the Crew.

• Ben Speas is giving the Crew almost what Eddie Gaven (injured) can and filling in well.

• What you watched is this year's Crew. This is the club that McCullers is inexplicably hyper hyping and promoting as Cup contenders. It's not fair to the organization, or the players or the fans.

• Robert Warzycha said it last night, this SJ team is a good team. 2012 Supporters' Shield winning team. They are a good team but not really the team that was out there last night. SJ last night is an average MLS team. So are the Crew.

• Dominic Oduro was finally subbed off last night. It will be interesting to see how the coaching staff handles Oduro. Will he get more time? Williams was barking at him throughout the match. The two aren't connecting right now.

• Columbus travels to DC this weekend. Going to be a tough one for the Crew at RFK. The lineup should be interesting.

• Tyson Wahl had the third most touches last night, he was practically playing wing. Wahl is not a winger.

• With Agustin Viana and Danny O'Rourke playing as defensive mids you are playing with six in the backline. Neither are going to give you anything on the offensive side.

• Nearly overlooked in the match was recent USMNT call up Justin Morrow. He is a good player. Hope to see him on the left and Josh Williams on the right one day in Red, White and Blue.