FIFA 15's Completely Sensible Season Simulation

Each year around this time I like to sit down for a few minutes and run through a simulation or two of EA's wildly popular FIFA franchise. Before I get to the sim though, let's take a minute to pull up what a 'wildly popular' video game looks like.

"FIFA" sold 13.3 million units in 2014 (Xbox, Playstation). A version of the game was number one last year in the UK, France and Germany out of all games made on any platform. While Madden's NFL and 2k Sports NBA franchises still out sell FIFA four to one in the US, the soccer franchise still manages a very healthy 1.7 million units here (13% of the worldwide total). The highest ranked version of the game last year was 48th (Xbox 360).

Speaking of the global stage; FIFA outsold the Madden franchise by almost 8 million copies on major consoles (13.3 to 5.4 million - Xbox and Playstation). No real surprises there to most of us. Soccer's appeal is global and the game reflects that with leagues spanning most of the planet and Madden looking only at a few markets in the US.

$670 million USD is roughly what EA's FIFA franchise pulled in last year alone. That figure puts it right around Interstellar and How to Train Your Dragon 2 for 11th on the worldwide MOVIE grosses.

Reminder: FIFA, along with many other sports video game franchises, is a yearly release.

Needless to say, it's getting something right. Perhaps more than just having updated rosters, team logos, leagues, uniforms and stadiums... it does get, at least to some degree, individual player abilities down accurately. It has to. Fans playing the game are using their favorite team. A deal breaker would be players behaving incorrectly.

I've been with the franchise off and on over the course of its twenty year history, with a growing physical collection of games dating back to the first. Since 2009, the games have been a regular fall kick off event for me. Usually dying off sometime around Thanksgiving but picking back up right around now - when MLS rosters start to take shape.

EA stays with that shape (for the most part) these days, even with MLS, throughout the offseason. Not perfect by any means but they nail the high level summary of things, all the way down to the player level.



Back in 2012 I did my own set of simulations and came away with the game correctly prediction 8 of the 10 playoff teams and only missing on three teams more than 2 spots in their conference rank. The game also, somewhat remarkably, told me that Justin Meram would be a top scorer (just took him an extra year to get there, which I blame on Warzycha).

In 2013, I got 3 out of the 5 eastern playoff teams (tho, only getting 3 teams more than a couple spots off) - and the same again in 2014. Both years over thinking it and not using plain old and reliable FIFA.

This year SIX conference teams make it in the Playoffs. Since that's pretty much what teams play for, here's who FIFA has making it in:

IN (pts)
Toronto FC (60)
Philadelphia Union (56)
NY Red Bulls (49)
Columbus Crew SC (46)

New York City FC (not available yet)
Orlando City SC (not available yet)

OUT
Impact Montreal (44)
DC United (34)
New England Revolution (31)
Chicago Fire (31)

Woah, Philly. Not sure about that one. I might replace them with New England but otherwise this looks about right. I don't see how Toronto can miss this year. Even if they don't hit this year, they will next. It's inevitable and unfortunate.

Leading scorers were Álvaro Saborío, Clint Dempsey and Federico Higuain(!).

Here is how the rest of Crew SC looked on the goal front:

Goals - NAME (assists)
16 - HIGUAIN (4)
8 - FINLAY (2)
7 - TCHANI (1)
5 - MERAM (7)
4 - GALL (1)
3 - SCHOENFELD (2)
3 - KAMARA* (2)
2 - BEDELL (0)
2 - STEINDORSSON (0)
2 - FRANCIS (2)
1 - TRAPP (1)
1 - SPEAS (0)
1 - POGATETZ (0)
0 - SWANSON (1)
0 - SAEID (1)
0 - PARKHURST (2)

*I simulated a couple times, Kamara plays off and on due to injury.

Anyhow, that's what FIFA says. Off to check out what's going on with Football Manager.

Crew SC Protect, Expose, Make Moves Ahead of Expansion Draft

This draft is strange animal. The purpose of it is to help along new teams without having to field an existing team before entering the league (even though Orlando City SC did have a team). In theory, it's suppose to help maintain the level playing field that the league wants - while behind the scenes it helps control cost of starting up a fully professional "top division" team from scratch (more at bottom).

Whether this mechanism works on the competitive level is up for serious debate. Recent expansion teams in Toronto, Vancouver, Philadelphia, Montreal and even Portland (save for one year) have been mid to bottom half teams since they joined. In fact, one could make the argument that the expansion draft dilutes a limited pool of players and drags the overall quality in the league down... is probably a topic worth exploring further, in another post.

On the financial front, it's been a cost saver for expansion teams because they don't have to give up anything for MLS level players. There are league granted "allocation funds" given to teams that have players plucked but it costs little else. With the next two waiver drafts coming up along with a number of picks in the college draft, new teams can have full rosters in no time for basically nothing. They don't even have to flip the bill for developing any players. Magic.

Every existing Major League Soccer team had to submit their "protected" list of 11 players yesterday as required by the expansion draft rules. Both Orlando City SC and New York City FC get to pick ten players each from every exposed list of players from each team.

Before the draft even started, Gregg Berhalter and Company got to work trying to get something in return for valuable players that they were not going to protect. That ended up coming by way of to of the longest tenured guys in Josh Williams (sent to NYCFC for reported more than the would have received from the draft) and Bernardo Anor (to Sporting KC, no word on what the Crew got in return).

PROTECTED ELEVEN
GK Steve Clark
D Waylon Francis
D Michael Parkhurst
D Emanuel Pogatetz
MF Tony Tchani
MF Hector Jimenez
MF Romain Gall
MF Ethan Finlay
MF Justin Meram
MF Federico Higuaín
F Kei Kamara

Exempt: GK Matt Lampson (HGP), D *Ross Friedman (HGP), D *Matt Wiet (HGP), D Chad Barson (HGP), CDM Wil Trapp (HGP), MF *Matt Walker (HGP), D Ben Swanson (HGP) and MF Mohammed Saied (new signing)

A couple notes: First off, it gives you an idea of what the starting line up might look like. Second off; this draft blows your 18 to smithereens (where Williams and Anor would have been).

Next up is who the MLS Columbus did not protect, along with a quick player rating (out of stars ✪) and some notes by yours truly:

Ben Sweat, 23 (LB) ✪✪✪
Admittedly didn't see as much as I should have (Crew closed scrimmages save for the one in Dayton) but I liked what I saw when I did. He's better with the ball than your average college left back, confident and makes good decisions. You can tell when a player knows what he's doing, and he's one. Too early to tell if he is starter quality but I think an expansion side is just what the doctor ordered with a player like Sweat. He needs game time.

Ben Speas, 23 (CM) ✪✪✪
In three years in Columbus, Ben has proven he can play in MLS. In fact, I should probably put him above Sweat, but I'm leaving it as is. He could easily be a four star guy. Maybe he is. There is something about him that keeps him right on the fringe of starting under two coaching staffs now. I've seen two sides of the player. One fully engaged in the action and another, towards the end of this season, where he was letting the game happen around him. In my heart of hearts, I want him to get picked up by NYCFC so he can start along side Josh Williams. Don't care what the scouts or advanced stats might say about the two. If you have both of them starting you will finish in the top half or they will die trying to get you there. What more should you ask for in MLS.

*Agustin Viana, 31 (LB, CDM) ✪✪✪
There is enough MLS footage out there to tell you that Viana is league ready. What he lacks in speed he makes up with in skill. Too often MLS teams look at speed. Viana didn't fit Berhalter's wing back role and was overlooked as a central defensive mid off the bench behind Tony Tchani and Wil Trapp. Also had a couple injuries. He's out of contract with the Crew and not likely back either way but would be a solid pick up for anyone.

Brad Stuver, 23 (GK) ✪✪
I'd give Stuver two and a half stars if I could figure out the alt-code. I think a lot of the same things about him as I do with Sweat. These guys need game time. Stuver's performance against Indy Eleven this year (in a blowout loss, but that's were you get the best looks at GKs) was inspiring. He also played well with Wilmington Hammerheads to close out the USL Pro season, including two late season shutouts against league leaders Sacramento and Orlando.

*Eric Gehrig, 26 (CB, RB) ✪✪
Playing or not, Gehrig is the quintessential team guy. That's, by far, his number one attribute. In all honesty, I hesitate to put something like that down as a label for a player this day and age. Not a sports show (especially on the MLS site) goes by without pundits mentioning how much heart and grit a guy plays with. It annoying and used so much that it minimizes the meaning when a someone actually has those things. Gehrig has mostly been role player in his four years with the Crew with the exception of the back end of 2014, where he helped propel the team into 3rd place in the East.

Tyson Wahl, 30 (CB, LB) ✪✪
Like Gehrig, contributed greatly towards the end of 2014. Even, it appeared, kept a major team signing in Emanuel Pogatetz on the bench. Plenty on Wahl. Durable, probably the first word that springs to mind. He seems to find good teams, good coaches. Something to be said for that.

*Jairo Arrieta, 31 (F) ✪✪+
Before last season, Arrieta was a four or even a five star player. Something happened along the way and I'm not quite sure what. I do believe there is another couple productive years for Jairo but I feel sort of bad for him this year as Berhalter decided to go with Adam Bedell and Aaron Schoenfeld over him. I put a little + up there because he's the perfect player for a team to pick up (expansion or otherwise). He's still on the outer fringes of the Costa Rican national team and looking to impress.

The rest:
Kevan George, 24 (CDM, CB) ✪✪
Aaron Schoenfeld, 24 (CF) ✪✪
Adam Bedell, 23 (CF) ✪
*Daniel Paladini, 30 (CDM, RM)
*Kingsley "Fifi" Baiden, 23 (CDM)

*Currently out of contract with the Crew SC.

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To fully understand why something like this exists in the world of soccer means you have to accept that a team can buy their way directly into the highest tier vs starting from the lowest tier and working their way up. Some might say that the top divisions buy their way in via best players, which is true, but those players still have to perform and you are also talking about a very small percentage of teams. The other 99% of clubs are grinding their way.

Rd 4: Win at RFK

Columbus beats the odds and grabs all three points away in Washington DC 1:2 with both goals from NE Ohio born players. This was easily one of the more engaging games of the young MLS season.

1ST HALF
Columbus came ready to play and was as dominate and threatening in the first 20 minutes as they have been all year. DC made no adjustments to deal with Federico Higuain in the midfield and, well, generally looked unprepared.

The Crew still struggling to get anything from open play but just reward came from yet another set piece off the foot of Tyson Wahl and head of Josh Williams in the 15'. Somewhat against the run of play, DC was able to equalize in the 22' off some lazy defending from Glauber and with a touch of magic from (man-child) Rafael.

Crisis struck DC a few minutes later as Nick DeLeon went down with what appeared to be a hamstring problem.

As time ticked down on the frantic 1st half teams were relatively deadlocked.

2ND HALF
Started much like the first, entertaining. With DeLeon missing and his replacement (Kyle Porter) a steep drop off from his talent, the Crew were able to control most of the happenings in the middle.

Again, reward from the Crew did not come from open play. It came from a corner that bounced around and found Ben Speas atop the 18 yd box. Speas whipped in a laser for his first career goal.

From there Columbus slipped back to defend and held DC off though both good defending and a couple amazing saves from Andy Gruenebaum.

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CONCLUSIONS
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• This game held all the hallmarks of a Ben Olsen DCU game. Which is to say, chaos.

• There was a somewhat controversial offside call that pulled back a DC goal as well as Chad Marshall pulling down Chris Pontius in the box that probably should have been a PK

• Match official Allen Chapman let things go this match, stopping the action very few times. 16 total fouls this game (about half what a normal match gets).

• So few fouls made for a wide open affair and this approach is probably calculated by the league. Fewer fouls and Red Cards this year.

• Josh Williams getting forward like a madman in the first 20 minutes. I've seen this before from him, most notably (and frustratingly) in the Dayton Dutch Lions game last year. He seemingly wants to win the game single-handedly. This is a quality trait.

• 4 of 7 Crew goals this year are from set pieces.

• Moving Oduro out of the midfield was the key to this match. While no goals came from open play, it did play up to the level of their opponent. Something that was missing from past two games.

• Eddie Gaven got a yellow for simulation around the box. It's been a while coming. Over the past couple years Eddie has racked up the most 'fouls suffered' in the league by going down very easy. It's become a bad habit for him. While he does look extra frail this year (man, does he), he's got the skill to work through fouls, he needs to stop going to ground.

• Ben Speas has been playing great. Good to see him get a win in a start away with the game winning goal. Well done.

Ben Speas Goal v. Stoke City

I'll probably do a few illustrations from the Stoke game at Crew Stadium last night. Still trying to process it. The goal Ben Speas had was pretty amazing. Were it a league match it would be a candidate for "goal of the week".

Almost 9,000 on hand to watch a friendly. Good stuff. It seems the closer the Crew gets to fielding a side filled with regional players the fuller Crew Stadium gets. It doesn't hurt that those players are playing well either.



Talked a bit about Ben Speas at the end of my last post. From what I've seen of him confident that he'll be a good MLS player in the attacking half of the field if given the chance.