MLS is Back Betting Update

My winnings, by game

My FAKE betting should be a cautionary tale to anyone trying to bet on MLS. I have only been able to correctly pick ONE GAME OUT OF ELEVEN. That's 1/11. Randomly generating winners would do better. 

I'm going to be locking in my picks now because I have a busy day and won't have time later. We are getting to see a couple teams for the second time now, so I'm going to up my little fake bets a little.

A couple notes: Chicago hasn't upgraded their roster or front office significantly enough to get them out of the cellar. Literally, all they have done is add a coat of paint. NYCFC has a growing goal problem. Three games this year and zero goals. They are a talented team, however. Lastly, Philly and Erst have put a good squad together in the last 24 months.

Chicago Fire	220
Draw	250
Seattle Sounders	120	$50.00
NYCFC	110	$50.00
Draw	270
Orlando City	225
Philadelphia Union	130	$50.00
Draw	275
Miami	185

I'm a little surprised Seattle isn't even bigger favorites today. Speaking of Favorites... they have only won 3 out of the 11 games. That record is almost as bad as mine. It's also something I'm sure betMGM is looking at.

MLS Betting, Game 9

I am 1/8 now! But that one I put a FAKE $100 on (Crew over a woooah-full Cincy). In a few minutes the postponed game between Toronto FC and DC United is this morning.

Toronto	100
Draw	250
DC United	240	$15.00

Underdogs have been winning most of the games. 5/8. Crew and Rev wins as well as a draw make up the difference.

MLS Betting, Game 7 and 8

After going 0-5 I finally hit on the easy to predict Crew bashing of Cincinnati. I went big on it because there was chatter that FC Cincy didn't want to play in a rain-delayed late game. It showed.

Tonight? I'm going with KC and a draw in the late game. KC is a win because I think Vermes has his guys ready to go, even if there talent and tactics are lacking.

Teams	Odds	Bet Amount
Orlando City	200
Draw	250
Miami	130	$20.00
NYCFC	-106	$25.00
Draw	300
Philadelphia Union	250
Montreal Impact	195	$16.00
Draw	275
New England Revs	125
Seattle Sounders	-106
Draw	260
New San Jose Earthquakes	280	$25.00
Atlanta United	140
Draw	260	$25.00
NY Red Bulls	180
FC Cincinnati	325
Draw	270
Columbus Crew	-121	$100.00
Sporting KC	105	$25.00
Draw	275
Minnesota United	240
Real Salt Lake	195
Draw	240	$10.00
Colorado Rapids	140

The Crew win puts me back up $70. I don't have any confidence in the teams tonight. So FAKE BETTING small.

MLS is Back, Game 3 Betting

Montreal Impact vs. New England Revolution.

I'm short on time and MLS is late with rosters. So, I'll just go with Montreal. They already beat the Revs earlier this year (way back!). 

Montreal Impact	195	$16.00
Draw	275	$0.00
New England Revs	125	$0.00

I'll put 16 on them to try and win my dollars back from the first two losses (-$55.00 in the hole).

NYCFC v. Philly, Preview and Bet

Continuing onwards with my fake MLS betting even after my "L" last night. Speaking of:

LAST MATCH: I had Miami over Orlando because the had more to gain. They did take the 1-0 advantage and hold it for a while but man are there holes in that roster. Orlando ended up winning on a Nani finish off a loose ball in the box.

This morning is NYCFC v. Philadelphia Union. I'm going with the favorite; NYCFC.

NYCFC	-106	$25.00
Draw	300	$0.00
Philadelphia Union	250	$0.00

WHY: It's nearly impossible to know what frame of mind these players are in. Not just the pandemic, but an early morning kickoff (9 AM). I'm going with the team that has better, more professional players. Union have been slow starters over the years anyway. All I got, I guess.

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Notes:

1. Only using a 3 Way Moneyline (picking the result. Team A or B win or a match Draw). Keeping it as simple as possible.

2. I'm using the MGM odds because that's the league's official partner.

3. Also, I'll be using updated odds from the Bet MGM site, not MLS. I've already seen differences. 

4. My odds are locked when I place my fake bet, usually about an hour before posting on Helltown.

MLS is Back (Day 1 Betting)

"MLS is Back" despite removing one team and postponing another. Regardless, I thought it would be fun to place FAKE bets on the games going forward. I will post as much as time allows, but I am armed with a spreadsheet that updates with the odds as the days march on.

Speaking of days marching on... the only way to do this is to place my fake bets close to kickoff time because the situation appears to be fluid.

I'll continue to add posts and my betting totals in this completely once in a lifetime (we hope) MLS event. It could get messy. Will more teams drop out? Postponements? Rainouts? Will the MLSPA pull the players? The whole thing gets canceled? Strap in.

DAY 1

Orlando City vs. Inter Miami

Teams	Odds	Bet Amount
Orlando City	200
Draw	250	$0.00
Miami	130	$20.00

WHY: Miami has more to gain by winning today. With winning comes relevance, something in short supply with expansion teams. Miami was really driving hard at the start of this season even though the quality of the team is questionable. They have been very active on social media and as far as I can tell, they have a mostly full roster. Don't discount media activity. It costs money, even more money if you want it to look good.

Notes:

1. Only using a 3 Way Moneyline (picking the result. Team A or B win or a match Draw). Keeping it as simple as possible.

2. I'm using the MGM odds because that's the league's official partner.

3. Also, I'll be using updated odds from the Bet MGM site, not MLS. I've already seen differences. 

4. My odds are locked when I place my fake bet, usually about an hour before posting on Helltown.

FC Dallas Out, Nashville Maybe

FC Dallas was removed from the tournament after more than half the team tested positive for the coronavirus and now it appears that Nashville SC may be on thin ice.

The "MLS is Back" tournament kicks off tonight with Miami FC taking on Orlando City at 8 pm EST. 

Don Garber will hold this tournament (or hold the positive tests back behind a curtain) even if everyone tests positive.

A host of games have already been rescheduled or changed due to the absence of FC Dallas and Nashville's game getting pushed back, but I'm planning to have a little fun with this tournament by keeping up with the newly posted betting odds on the site.

FC Dallas is Covid Central

Buzz Carrick over at 3rd Degree has been closely covering the mini outbreak of COVID-19 within the FC Dallas team. Here's how he has the timeline of events: 

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June 3 – One player tests positive, the 2nd case in MLS. (Reported by MLS)

June 18-19 – Two more cases while still in Frisco. A 4th suspected case turns out to be some other “old school” illness. One of the two players who tested positive was cleared to return to training and the other did not travel.

June 27 – FCD travels to and arrives in Orlando.

June 28 – FCD holds its first training session and has two positive tests.

June 29 – FCD has one more positive test.

June 30 – FCD has three more positive tests.

July 1 – FCD has four more positive tests: three players and one staffer.

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This sequence of events has Kevin Baxter of the LA Times stating that the "MLS is Back" tournament could be in jeopardy.

The NWSL got underway with one team (The Orlando Pride, ironically enough) not making the trip to the tournament. It's possible that MLS could do the same with FC Dallas, but I doubt they are able to pull it off. The complexity of rescheduling a league of just a handful of teams like the NWSL is completely different than a league of 26. MLS has also assigned value to the group stage games, as they count towards the regular-season standings.

All over the league we see some teams delaying their flights a bit, so I suspect that they might be waiting on more information from MLS offices on a way to move forward. Several of these tests came back positive after the players arrived, and were living in, the Orlando Bubble.

In future reporting, The USA Today stated that all players and staff on FC Dallas tested negative before arriving to Orlando. I don't think you can all the sudden get sick over the course of a short flight. What this says to me is that either MLS didn't test or they thought they wouldn't really get tested in Orlando.

It's important to note that most MLS teams do not have the kind of press coverage that 3rd Degree provides in Dallas. Even if players or staff of most teams test positive, there's nobody asking.

52 Positive Covid tests, MLS

Positive COVID-19 tests are rolling in for MLS in the lead up to the "MLS is Back" tournament next month, ESPN has reported.

18 players and 6 staff members tested positive during local training over the last few weeks and now it has been learned that 26 more players have tested positive prior to traveling to Orlando and another 2 players positive since arrival. 

The two testing positive since arriving at the "bubble" in Orlando is problematic as it requires not only the positive test players to quarantine but other players that have come in close contact as well. According to the ESPN report, MLS has not commented on that.

Summary of positive tests:

24: Return to training (6 staff)

26: Prior to Orlando travel

2: Upon arrival to Orlando

There are no plans to delay or stop the tournament at this time. 

MY THOUGHTS

The league seems hell-bent on holding the tournament. I think if it were up to Garber every player down there could test positive and he'd still hold it. It's probably a matter of the public threshold of how many can test positive. Like, if it starts to fall out of the range of the rest of the area/country. Right now that would probably be around 12+% of overall tests going positive.

Something else that could slow it down is if a popular player gets it and the news pokes out of the normal MLS social media twitter. 

I have two opinions on this whole MLS thing... 1. they are jumping the gun and should have just waited to start later (September) in their normal markets AND 2. MLS is effectively a trial balloon for the rest of the leagues restarting. Namely, the NFL. Where there is a lot of overlap in ownership.