NYCFC v. Philly, Preview and Bet

Continuing onwards with my fake MLS betting even after my "L" last night. Speaking of:

LAST MATCH: I had Miami over Orlando because the had more to gain. They did take the 1-0 advantage and hold it for a while but man are there holes in that roster. Orlando ended up winning on a Nani finish off a loose ball in the box.

This morning is NYCFC v. Philadelphia Union. I'm going with the favorite; NYCFC.

NYCFC	-106	$25.00
Draw	300	$0.00
Philadelphia Union	250	$0.00

WHY: It's nearly impossible to know what frame of mind these players are in. Not just the pandemic, but an early morning kickoff (9 AM). I'm going with the team that has better, more professional players. Union have been slow starters over the years anyway. All I got, I guess.

-----------------------

Notes:

1. Only using a 3 Way Moneyline (picking the result. Team A or B win or a match Draw). Keeping it as simple as possible.

2. I'm using the MGM odds because that's the league's official partner.

3. Also, I'll be using updated odds from the Bet MGM site, not MLS. I've already seen differences. 

4. My odds are locked when I place my fake bet, usually about an hour before posting on Helltown.

Preseason Look: NY City FC

NYCFC is coming up on their first season as a real MLS team. The shine of their expansion years with David Villa are gone and now we get to see if they (the investors, front office) are still interested in putting forth an effort.

Most indicators seem to say that they are. Their starting XI is solid. No weaknesses save for up top. They may be on the hunt for another center forward / scoring number 9 to fill that David Villa role. Jo Inge Berget should be sufficient with the midfield they have assembled.

Other players of above average note: Maxi Moralez, Alexander Ring, Ebenezer Ofori and Maxime Chanot. These aren't household MLS names, but they are good players.

It is refreshing to see a team relatively prepared for the upcoming season.

Rating	Name	Position	FM19	FIFA	WS
75	Maxi Moralez	Attacking Midfield	74	76	75
73	Alexander Ring	Central Midfield	73	75	70
72	Ebenezer Ofori	Defensive Midfield	72	72	66
71	Maxime Chanot	Centre-Back	70	71	72
71	Anton Tinnerholm	Right-Back	71	71	69
69	Jo Inge Berget	Centre-Forward	70	69	68
69	Jesús Medina	Left Winger	69	69	67
69	Keaton Parks	Defensive Midfield	69	69	62
69	Ismael Tajouri-Shradi	Right Winger	68	71	69
69	Ronald Matarrita	Left-Back	68	71	69
69	Sean Johnson	Goalkeeper	69	70	68
68	Alexander Callens	Centre-Back	66	71	68
67	Ben Sweat	Left-Back	64	67	69
65	Cédric Hountondji	Centre-Back	65	67	60
65	Sebastien Ibeagha	Centre-Back	63	65	67
64	Brad Stuver	Goalkeeper	64	64	63
63	Valentín Castellanos	Attacking Midfield	63	63	64
63	Jonathan Lewis	Right Winger	61	63	64
62	Tony Rocha	Central Midfield	61	62	67
61	James Sands	Defensive Midfield	61	58	66
52	Dan Bedoya	Attacking Midfield	60	52
51	Jeff Caldwell	Goalkeeper	54	51
0	Joe Scally	Right-Back
0	Abdi Mohamed	Defender
0	Luis Barraza	Goalkeeper

I'm not sure NY City FC need much else. This team is prepared for the season. Anything they bring in at this point is just a bonus. Playoff material.

		Player Ratings (avg)		TransferMarkt Value (000)
	Team	Starters	Bench	Starters	Bench
1	ATL	70.9	65.9	$ 52,497	$ 6,067
2	TFC	70.5	65.7	$ 25,027	$ 4,315
3	NYC	70.5	64.6	$ 16,303	$ 4,470
4	DCU	69.7	56.6	$ 21,934	$ 2,990
5	NYR	69.7	64.9	$ 20,192	$ 3,745
6	CLB	69.3	66.2	$ 24,671	$ 4,180
7	NER	68.7	64.5	$ 13,278	$ 5,115
8	PHI	68.2	56.5	$ 9,933	$ 5,529
9	CHI	67.8	63.7	$ 17,022	$ 3,955
10	FCC	67.5	64.7	$ 11,014	$ 4,383
11	ORL	67.2	62.2	$ 10,365	$ 3,309

Rd 9: Season Settles In

Reg season intensity level

We have reached the part of the season where players are in game shape and hitting, for better or worse, some kind of form. Goals are better. Interplay is better. Overall, just better. So when two teams that attempt to prepare and play a specific style (instead of just running around out there) it opens up.

This was the case when NYCFC traveled to Columbus last Saturday to take on Crew SC. 

It isn't to say that the game was a thing of beauty or one to remember. The defending by both teams was poor. It was more fun than many of the other games, but in the end, it was just a game that marked 1/4 of the season complete.

Columbus lost. They are working through injuries and lack of chemistry that comes with that (Mensah and Artur the two key guys there), are not settled in the right midfield and have a player kicking up dust about playing time. All these things are ingredients needed to give up leads in games.

These same ingredients are used in making a team mediocre, which seems to be the case with Crew SC at the moment. There is just too much noise right now for the team to be anything but average. 

With a quarter of the season complete we are now entering the patchy summer portion of the calendar where teams without depth (ie. most MLS teams) have wild quality swings game to game. Gregg Berhalter and crew will do their best to keep it together and above the playoff line. Which, now that that is typed, seems all that this season will be about.

Of note: Abu, Trapp, Mensah and Naess did not click in this game. The quality of play between these four is critically important to the success of Crew SC. It's not to say these players are not good, but there are concerns about turnover game to game. Stability is needed in order for it to work well.

12 Hours The Wrong Way

Well, the Crew aren't going the wrong way. In fact, it was great seeing the team play with intensity and effort against Crystal Palace last night. It's also great to see the Crew work in some of their local players (and homegrowns) into the senior team.

Guys like Wil Trapp and Josh Williams have carved out places in the starting lineup with their local team but you also see Darlington Nagbe, Michael Nanchoff, Eric Brunner and Justin Morrow make it as MLS regulars elsewhere. Ohio has proven the ability to manufacture talent. As the sport grows in the US (not just MLS) it will be those that can tap into it that will keep there noses in front.

On top of a wise investment it's also a great story to tell the rest of the world.

What isn't a good story (nor a wise investment) to tell the world is the summer friendlies MLS insists on playing and the older European big name players the league insists on over paying for.

ELEVEN TO ONE

There are not enough excuses in the land of unicorns and rainbows MLS lives in for a 7-0 evisceration that Manchester United put on the LA Galaxy last night. The game ended sometime after midnight eastern time so many didn't know of the shocking result until morning.

Not to be over looked last night was also the 4-1 Manchester City result over Sporting KC. This one was a bit closer but ultimately ended one sided.

Both games were broadcast to a larger TV audience. ESPN carrying one and Fox Sports 1 the other. What this means is that many of the new soccer fans in the US gained post Brazil were tuning in to see MLS get steamrolled, thus cementing and confirming perceptions that the league is inferior to other leagues in abroad.

Were points at stake? No. But it is ignorant to say they were meaningless. Not only was the regular US soccer crowd watching, but all the new post-World Cup news ones were as well.

THE OTHER PERCEPTION

Inferiority might dog Major League Soccer but the number one perception the league has had almost since the beginning is that of being a "retirement league." One confirmed to the larger masses this morning, when 36 year old Chelsea legend Frank Lampard was announced as NYCFC's most recent signing.

So when you add up the events of the twelve hours from when KC kicked off verses Manchester City to when MLSsoccer.com (the league's corporate site) promoting Lampard's signing this morning the sum is the same as it has always been.

The English side of me barely gets excited for Frank Lampard's arrival in MLS. Were you to pin him down, I think Frank is more excited about hanging out in NY next year just as much as he is playing a couple more competitive years. Not sure what going to be left of him after a short stint in Australia (not confirmed yet) while he waits for 2015.

Ultimately, at the end of today's announcement, I felt like MLS took a couple steps back and not forward (big steps, if you consider post World Cup attention). This isn't so much a knock on MLS or Lampard (or his father, since I used his pic up there). For folks that live in a MLS city, there is plenty to follow and like about the league but things like last night's results and today's signing only perpetuate stereotypes across the rest of the country (...and world).

PODCAST: Red Cards in Helltown - Episode II

Episode II of Red Cards in Helltown podcast recorded this Sunday morning with a full panel of contributors. Host Rick Gethin, Justin Bell, Jim Bach, David Burgin and myself dig into a whole lot and probably more than we should.

Just like last week (and as we will do going forward) the show is limited to 60 minutes and recorded straight through (warts and all). Still early in the process but we are happy with how it's going and having a great time. Hope you like it, thanks for listening!

------------------------------------------------------------
Here's a rundown of the topics we cover this week:

 00:45 SEGMENT 1 - HEADLINES
• US Open Cup, NASL vs (the) MLS vs ... motivation
• Indy Eleven, Columbus Crew (Dayton Dutch Lions)
• NYCFC, Frank Lampard, David Villa
• Cost of performance and cost of world wide brands

 19:20 SEGMENT 2 - COLUMBUS CREW
• Disagreement on whether or not results matter this year
• Spending money in the right place
• Team building
• Scoring costs money, commitment to spending
• "Something good going on"... Zero goal difference
• RSL preview, should be good
• "We don't have very good players. To sum up... we don't have really good players"

 41:50 SEGMENT 3 - WORLD CUP, INT'L COVERAGE
• Match fixing ("Bags of hundred dollar bills")
• Picking the best 23 players, transform USMNT program
• Copa America, going to be awesome
• Klinsmann Donovan, Warzycha GBS

 53:43 SEGMENT 4 - WRAP UP, QUICK HITS
• Issues with German team heading into the World Cup
• "Deserving Wins" in MLS
• "Earning your way in"
• NYCFC "earn" the right to play in a baseball stadium