Podcast: Red Cards in Helltown - Episode XVII

Host Rick Gethin and analyst Larry Johnson return this week to walk through as much as they can in one hour. As always, show is recorded in one take - because we like it that way.

01:00 HEADLINES
• European Qualifiers, large field of teams
• Up and down popularity of National Teams
• Landon Donovan's last USMNT game
• Promotion and Relegation, Jurgen Klinsmann comments
• All pro sports are growing

20:50 COLUMBUS CREW
• Lots of thoughts on the Crew Rebrand
• Crew comeback vs Philly
• Light attendance in Philly, 5 yrs no playoffs
• Josh Wolff praise for Ethan Finlay and Justin Meram finishing
• Kei Kamara signing
• Showing improvement, consistency

45:25 LEAGUE LOOK, PLAYOFFS
• Two spots left in the East
• What Houston has to do to get back in it
• Michael Bradley's reputation now with poor TFC season
• Real quick look at west

53:55 QUICK HIT, WRAP UP
• LA2 / Chivas USA Vincent Tan

Predictions, Preview: PHI v CLB (a)

7:00 PM Eastern. Columbus Crew SC away to Philadelphia Union.

MATCH NOTES
CLB: Starters Higuain, Francis are suspended today (card accumulation)
CLB: Higuain has 8 of Columbus' 19 away goals, 42% is 3 most in MLS
PHI: Crew can effectively end their season tonight

MATCH PREDICTIONS
Percentage on left is year accuracy picking Crew games only.

58% COLUMBUS DISPATCH ... PHILADELPHIA UNION (fav)
52% WIN DRAW WIN ... COLUMBUS CREW
52% MLSSOCCER ... PHILADELPHIA UNION
**% MASSIVE REPORT ... COLUMBUS CREW
48% WHOSCORED.COM ... DRAW
48% HOME TEAM ... PHILADELPHIA UNION
45% BET365 ... PHILADELPHIA UNION
35% GOAL.COM ... DRAW
32% TABLE POSITION ... COLUMBUS CREW
--% WV HOOLIGAN ... (no pick)

**Check out Nate Beckman's predictions and thoughts over at his regular weekly column [MR].

MATCH THOUGHTS
This one is like a blank canvas of which these two teams will paint. With Federico Higuain and Waylon Francis out the Crew will be forced to modify their normally consistent lineup by at least two on top of the switching back and forth we've seen of late with Hector Jimenez and Eric Gehrig at right fullback.

On the Union side comes a team that is on the down side of a coaching change high. After getting 12 pts from five games a month ago, the team has not managed a win in the last four (all of them against Eastern Conference teams). In some ways, Philly is in the same place the Crew were late last year.

Without Higuain holding the middle of the field together, I expect this one to play loose. It's a wonderful opportunity for Ben Speas (if he is the replacement) to showcase himself in a tough, intense environment.

Philly likes the quick counter and Le Toux likes to drift wide. Tony Tchani and Wil Trapp will be the guys for the Crew to watch. They will be busy and if they are not in full form, the Crew will drop three tonight unless coach Berhalter tells Jimenez and Anor (or whomever plays the outside fullback roles) to stay home. Tyson Wahl, Bernardo Anor, Justin Meram will also factor in to this one as their road performances have been up and down.

Weather: Rain midday but stop by game time. The natural surface will be wet and the temps down in the mid 50s. Great soccer weather!

The Athletic Club of Columbus

"At the Athletic Club of Columbus, our members are the boss. We are member-owned, committee driven, and Board-approved."

The quote above is from a very real place in downtown Columbus. Founded in 1912, the Club was "interested in promoting both social and athletic endeavors." Notable members over the years have been Warren G. Harding, 29th President of the United States (born in Blooming Grove, Ohio), William Saxbe, U.S. Senator and U.S. Attorney General 1974-1975 (Mechanicsburg, Ohio) and even Dave Thomas, Founder of Wendy's.

In recent years, it's seen visitors like Randy Travis, Harry Connick Jr, Joe Lieberman, Chelsea Clinton (of whom I have a good story, ask me about it one day), and even Katie Couric.

yellow dot

I took a nice walking trip with my ladyfriend downtown last weekend to get a good look at the painted yellow circle that, according to social media, was on the corner of High and Broad. It was a beautiful day for a walk and indeed there was a painted yellow dot with the text #NEWCREW below it right in the middle of the intersection. Markedly much less impressive in the afternoon daylight, but it was there. Right smack dab in the middle of the only part of downtown that feels like a downtown to me.

As we made our short trek to it I started to wonder what part, if any, the town of Columbus had on this yellow dot. What caused the change. Why it's being done. Why bother? I composed short answers in my head but nothing really stuck.

"Maybe, it's just because I'm not from here," was my conclusion to my conclusions as I approached the yellow dot of paint. A thought that's quickly chased away however, as I have been here, living in downtown Columbus, for what's going on eight years. Some might say that's a decade already.

Once I got to the dot I tried to snap a pic or two of it while crossing the street but that was about all I could muster up. I thought it'd be something more interesting and answer my questions, but it didn't. Of course it didn't.

Part of the reason for my tepid response to actually seeing the dot was due to the fact that I had just passed The 100 year old Athletic Club of Columbus building on my way. It's something I've heard about but never really put any thought into. Turns out this little journey to see a pro sports team's ad promotion got me thinking on it, doing a little bit of research and coming to other, unexpected conclusions.

The one that overrides the rest is that; were this another country, The "Columbus Soccer Club" would have originated in such a place as The Athletic Club of Columbus. Because sports clubs, in the rest of the world, belong mostly to the township, village or city (similar to the NFL's Green Bay Packers). The people. Her badge is that of the town, the steel factory that supported the team or what the town is known for. Perhaps it would be called The Athletic Soccer Club of Columbus, were it here.

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The Athletic Club of Columbus... wonder if they are looking to get a soccer team going.

Massive City FFC: A Brief Ranking of Rebranded MLS team Crests

"Columbus, Ohio has been the most important city for American soccer, and the Columbus Crew have been the most reliable pillar for Major League Soccer, since 1994. The league does not exist in its current form without Columbus. The league, most likely, does not exist at all without Columbus. These are truths, whether MLS 2.0 through 2.9 and the television networks acknowledge the essential importance of the Black & Gold, or not." - Justin Bell, Massive City FFC

With a Columbus Crew rebrand on the horizon earlier in the year Steve Abreu, Gabe Schultz and myself joined Massive City FFC in running over the 18 rebrands in Major League Soccer of the 20 years it has existed. We take some time to write down our thoughts on each and every one. Some good, some bad, plus a few that probably should have never seen the light of day (including an old Colorado logo that looks like a Cub Scouts badge you might earn for playing soccer while camping in a tipi on a whitewater rafting trip).

Crew rebrand is Oct 8th. Just a couple days away. There are a lot of roads that have been traveled and many we hope the Crew avoid. While you're waiting head on over and give it a read. The opening by Justin Bell, especially, is very much worth your time.

Crew Loss Highlights MLS Scheduling

The loss last night on the road in New England certainly doesn't spell doom for the previously red hot Columbus Crew but it does have me peeling back a couple layers and asking a couple questions.

First big one is how on earth did this Crew team get on a historically good run (modern)? Berhalter? New excitement? Players believing in themselves? Guys just taking quantum leaps in development? #NEWCREW?!

Turns out it's probably due to wonky MLS scheduling. A closer look the team's record poor run in the middle of the season was due to the fact that the Crew didn't have a run of games at home and are now (or just finished) a fairly unprecedented set of home matches.

This chart below shows how many home games the team had in the previous four weeks. Farther up the chart - the more home games during the previous month, down - less.



The red dots indicate when the Crew were playing more games on the road over a couple month's period. The first dot (left) happened towards the end of the 2010 season. Everybody remembers the end of that year as the Crew - after having a great year, suddenly went winless in six, shut out three times.

That team ended up playing on the road to Colorado and lose while the head coach sat his best player in the first half. The reasoning at the time was because of a poor run of results leading up, well, turns out the schedule was harsh and the coaching staff were not tuned to it. Mistakes all around.

The dot on the right shows this year's Berhalter team playing slightly more on the road and never stringing more (3) at home in a four week time. That tough run put the Crew in a historically bad place on a few metrics (10 and 20 game results, goal difference) but they came out of it well over the last two months, when the schedule pointed back to Columbus.

Where this leaves the Crew is with a brutal three game road trip right at the most critical time of the year. Yes, you have to play the games in front of you but the unbalanced way Major League Soccer handles it's schedule is frustrating as it seems more interested in smoke and mirrors than actual competition.

In the case of the 2010 Crew you see the results of a tough, unbalanced road/home schedule. The team crashed and burned spectacularly to the point where the team was blown up in the offseason. Even this past year you had fans and league watchers wondering if Gregg Berhalter was the guy after they went on a one win in previous 16. A different owner might have sacked the coach there, even.

Last night's result is a normal road final. Isolated, it's not that big a deal but because the time of year and with two more weeks in a row away from home ramps up the possibility of a drop in standings which could have a catastrophic impact on the post season MLS Cup.

In a league that institutes rules and bi-laws upon bi-laws to keep things as even as possible, scheduling needs to be fair and free of any hint of late season engineering.

Predictions, Thoughts; Revs v Crew (A)

Crew face Revolution today in the final battle of only remaining original Major League Soccer logos. New England Patriots Gillette Stadium today. 7:30 PM start.

MATCH NOTES
CLB: Nobody in the East has positive goal difference in last six Away
CLB: Familiar lineup expected
CLB: Only 2 road clean sheets
NER: Looking to solidify home playoff advantage

MATCH PREDICTIONS
Percentage on left is picking Crew games only (last ten).

57% (6) COLUMBUS DISPATCH ... NEW ENGLAND REVS (fav)
50% (6) WIN DRAW WIN ... NEW ENGLAND REVS
50% (6) MLSSOCCER ... NEW ENGLAND REVS
--% (6) MASSIVE REPORT ... NEW ENGLAND REVS
47% (3) WHOSCORED.COM ... NEW ENGLAND REVS
47% (6) HOME TEAM ... NEW ENGLAND REVS
43% (5) BET365 ... NEW ENGLAND REVS
37% (2) GOAL.COM ... DRAW
30% (4) TABLE POSITION ... NEW ENGLAND REVS
--% (-) WV HOOLIGAN ... (no pick)

MATCH THOUGHTS
Revs overwhelming favorites today as the Crew will do their best to play the part of not getting the three game road run off to a bad start. The clear goal here for both teams is to avoid the play-in wildcard game. Although, finishing 4th is actually a pretty good place to be from a financial standpoint as you get a guaranteed bonus home match. Either way, avoiding that 5th place finish should be paramount. Of course, losing and falling out of the MLS Cup would be bad as well. (This whole thing, ugh.)

Turf always plays a role for road teams at Gillette, especially when there are lines all over the pitch (as I expect there to be today), for teams that like to hang on to the ball as the Crew does. Bounces are different, distances are harder to judge, and sliding tackles are virtually eliminated. A completely different game, really.

Ohh, checking on the weather... looks like 60, and damp. Probably raining during the match. One of those Autumn rains I hope, which is like a drizzle. I wouldn't mind if the cameras wondered out of the stadium and walked amongst the trees for two hours. I'm sure the colors are really fantastic up there right now. I was up in Manchester, NH around this time a couple years ago, just beautiful.

Trees should be hitting their midseason form right now.

Parsons, Just South of Columbus

October 3, 2014. Around 5 PM.

Crew NPG+A Leaders

Here's a look at Crew Non-Penalty Goals + Assists (NPG+A) per 90 minutes played since 2008. If you want an interactive version to click around on, head over HERE.

Not terribly much to say there about this straight forward metric. Scoring. Assisting. Minutes played. Goals create memories for most fans and memorable players float to the top of this measurement. Easy to see that the more you play the less of the scoring and assisting you do per 90 minutes. It's hard! Which is why the guys that can do it get paid.

The game is certainly moving on from merely searching for players that top this metric, but this scoring and assisting thing... it likes to stick around. I make picture.