Saturday, October 11, 2014

Predictions, Preview: PHI v CLB (a)

7:00 PM Eastern. Columbus Crew SC away to Philadelphia Union.

MATCH NOTES
CLB: Starters Higuain, Francis are suspended today (card accumulation)
CLB: Higuain has 8 of Columbus' 19 away goals, 42% is 3 most in MLS
PHI: Crew can effectively end their season tonight

MATCH PREDICTIONS
Percentage on left is year accuracy picking Crew games only.

58% COLUMBUS DISPATCH ... PHILADELPHIA UNION (fav)
52% WIN DRAW WIN ... COLUMBUS CREW
52% MLSSOCCER ... PHILADELPHIA UNION
**% MASSIVE REPORT ... COLUMBUS CREW
48% WHOSCORED.COM ... DRAW
48% HOME TEAM ... PHILADELPHIA UNION
45% BET365 ... PHILADELPHIA UNION
35% GOAL.COM ... DRAW
32% TABLE POSITION ... COLUMBUS CREW
--% WV HOOLIGAN ... (no pick)

**Check out Nate Beckman's predictions and thoughts over at his regular weekly column [MR].

MATCH THOUGHTS
This one is like a blank canvas of which these two teams will paint. With Federico Higuain and Waylon Francis out the Crew will be forced to modify their normally consistent lineup by at least two on top of the switching back and forth we've seen of late with Hector Jimenez and Eric Gehrig at right fullback.

On the Union side comes a team that is on the down side of a coaching change high. After getting 12 pts from five games a month ago, the team has not managed a win in the last four (all of them against Eastern Conference teams). In some ways, Philly is in the same place the Crew were late last year.

Without Higuain holding the middle of the field together, I expect this one to play loose. It's a wonderful opportunity for Ben Speas (if he is the replacement) to showcase himself in a tough, intense environment.

Philly likes the quick counter and Le Toux likes to drift wide. Tony Tchani and Wil Trapp will be the guys for the Crew to watch. They will be busy and if they are not in full form, the Crew will drop three tonight unless coach Berhalter tells Jimenez and Anor (or whomever plays the outside fullback roles) to stay home. Tyson Wahl, Bernardo Anor, Justin Meram will also factor in to this one as their road performances have been up and down.

Weather: Rain midday but stop by game time. The natural surface will be wet and the temps down in the mid 50s. Great soccer weather!

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