Predictions: Crew (H) v Red Bulls

Good Morning,

Nestled on the north east corner of the Ohio Expo Center and State Fair Grounds you'll find Crew Stadium and at 7:30 PM tonight NY Red Bulls are there playing soccer.

GAME NOTES
-CLB: 9 games since a draw
-CLB: Likely lineup changes/shakeup
-CLB: 16th in league
-NY: Only 3 clean sheets away this year
-NY: Looking to keep pace for Supporters' Shield
-NY: 3 Wins, 2 Draw in last 5.

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PREDICTIONS
(In no particular order)

1. WVHOOLIGAN.COM ... NY RED BULLS
"Sometimes when your backs are up against a wall you fight hard, that is what I am hoping to see out of the Crew in this one. The thing is, I’m not expecting it." - Drew Epperley. He thinks the final will be 2:1 NY.

2. WINDRAWWIN.COM ... NY RED BULLS
Large Stake on Away Win, 0:1 and NY gets 51% of the 'Your Votes' to win (29% Draw, 19% Crew).

3. MLSSOCCER.COM ... NY RED BULLS
MLS Team Pick 'em Six sees four votes for NY and the other two going Draw.

4. GOAL.COM ... NY RED BULLS
Keith Hickey on the mic today with the one line game preview: "New York is riding high, and victory over Robert Warzycha's side could put Mike Petke's men top of MLS." Also, further down the page NY is getting over 80% of the fan's predictions.

5. BET365.COM ... NY RED BULLS
First time this year that the Crew are not favored at home. While parity might exist within records on the table the back half of the season the betting lines become more predictive. Parity in MLS is a falsity. The league is more interested in burning teams down in the offseason and having them pick up the pieces during the 1st half of the year. By this time, the order of things is more or less set. 11/8 Red Bulls, 2/1 Crew (9/4 Draw).

6. COLUMBUS DISPATCH ... LEAN NY RED BULLS
Adam Jardy puts it best this week, "New York has shown a propensity to not show up on occasion, meaning the Crew has a chance at an upset, but predicting anything but a Red Bulls win would be blind optimism."

7. TABLE POSITION ... NY RED BULLS

8. HOME TEAM ... CREW

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MY THOUGHTS

The Crew are on a bad enough run that it is okay to start making sweeping generalizations and conclusions. One big one that will dog this franchise for years to come is stumbling through league expansion since 2009, not correcting and finding themselves in 16th place in the league. Not just in 2013 standing but as an overall organization.

Not correcting has put this team back at square one with new owner Anthony Precourt and is mysterious merry group of investors. Previous ownership allowed roots to run too deep and pulling them up will be difficult.

Now, with all that good cheer out of the way it will be refreshing for many to once again roll the ball out and play some soccer.

The Crew are still in a limbo period but I fully expect the players to give it their all tonight. Key to this match: Andy Gruenebaum is out again with a nagging shoulder injury and Matt Lampson is in.

Lampson proved last week that under sustained pressure he might let a few in so it will be important for the Crew backline to be solid tonight. Better than solid.

Should be an interesting and enjoyable game.

Following up on the 2013 MLS 'SuperDraft'

1st Round MLS "Superdraft" picks are below, listed with minutes, goals and assists. Before the season started, I wrote about what the production of these players might look like (HERE).

Crew Technical Director Brian Bliss was somewhat famously quoted as saying "...evening before the Draft in the bar, and it's usually four beers and a prayer at that point."

I didn't think it is that unpredictable. Going over the basic stats through 70% of this year, it looks like 1st round picks are getting similar minutes and producing about as much as years past.

It's all about roles and situation but one big call out this year is Colorado. They really have gotten a lot out of their picks with Brown and Powers.

List is in order of 'superdraft' selection.

MINS : NAME : GOALS : ASSISTS
1733 : Andrew Farrell (NER) : 0 : 0
1393 : Carlos Alvarez (CHV) : 1 : 1
145 : Kyle Bekker (TFC) : 0 : 0
339 : Kekuta Manneh (VAN) : 2 : 2
438 : Erik Hurtado (VAN) : 0 : 0
1625 : Deshorn Brown (COL) : 6 : 6
231 : Walker Zimmerman (FCD) : 2 : 2
229 : Blake Smith (MTL) : 2 : 2
88 : Ryan Finley (CLB) : 0 : 0
10 : Eriq Zavaleta (SEA) : 0 : 0
1888 : Dillon Powers (COL) : 4 : 4
33 : John Stertzer (RSL) : 0 : 0
144 : Jason Johnson (HOU) : 0 : 0
#N/A : Mikey Lopez (SKC) : #N/A : #N/A
#N/A : Tommy Muller (SJE) : #N/A : #N/A
5 : Emery Welshman (TFC) : 0 : 0
350 : Taylor Kemp (DCU) : 0 : 0
#N/A : Fernando Monge (MTL) : #N/A : #N/A
128 : Charlie Rugg (LAG) : 1 : 1

The Crew went for a goal scorer in Ryan Finley this year. He has seen some time but the Crew have tried to explore the talents of 2nd year man Aaron Schoenfeld instead.

With him (Schoenfeld) hurt, Crew fans should expect Finley to find more time in the coming weeks and nab a couple goals. 'Tis his destiny.

Expect Ryan Finley to finish in the 0.30 goals + assist range if he does see regular minutes.

86th Minute in Toronto

Ethan Finlay prepares to take the field against Toronto FC at BMO Field. July 27, 2013. OOOO

Starts around 0:38. Read about it here.

Crew Rd 22, Lose and Open Space

Houston put away a Columbus team in limbo 3:1 last night.

1ST HALF
Both teams came off the first whistle pretty sharp despite the reportedly oppressive 90+ degree heat. Setting aside the unfortunate foul in the box that Chad Marshall committed the first 25 minutes of this game saw the Crew playing just about as well as they can.

In that first 25 the Crew possessed well (which was opposite of what I expected) and ripped off four shots, two on target.

From there, though, some of the Crew players slowed and Federico Higuain started to show some early frustration. Moving on past the 25th, Houston started to gain supreme control of the match and were full of confidence.

Crew players just couldn't get to the ball as if in quicksand. In fact, the 2nd Houston goal was directly because of this. Boniek Garcia who basically toyed with Agustin Viana all night, dispossessed him and started a break on a slow Danny O'Rourke and slower Chad Marshall. It finished with Will Bruin, fresh off international duty, cutting across O'Rourke and finishing it nicely.

This was the 32nd minute when it happened and it appeared that some of the Crew players shut down part of their operations.

2ND HALF
In attempt to get a shot of energy, Robert Warzycha subbed in a couple. One was Kevan George for Matias Sanchez and the other was draft pick Ryan Finley for Jairo Arrieta (unclear if Arrieta was injured).

While fresh is good, the double change predictably made the game a sloppy affair. In fact both team seemed to try and figure out what Warzycha did. This shows in general activity off the half time restart.

Both sides were ripping off about 5 passes per minute but in the restart after half the Crew dropped to 4 and the Dynamo 6. Sloppy possession for the Crew during this interval.

You could start to feel that the Dynamo would get another but before that happened Ryan Finley started to apply some real pressure to Houston defenders in the box. He got the ball in there a few times and tried to walk it in the goal. On one such time a Dynamo defender kicked it directly into his own net and the Crew pulled one back in the 75th minute.

Crew looked hungry for more but just didn't have the energy. Late in the match around the 85th minute Houston's Cam Weaver put it away from the top of the box and sealed it.

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GAME OVER, THINKINGS

• The Crew didn't actually look as horrible as they did in previous handful of weeks. They had good spells of possession and really great opportunities. Houston certainly looked a better side but the Crew played alright on the 2013 Crew scale.

• Federico Higuain's frustrations. He needs to control them, especially now with an ownership change. Of course he is pissed and mad but to show it as much as he did last night (and frankly, over the past half year) is not acceptable for a leader. This is something that the team should have addressed ten games ago. But they didn't because the are conflict averse and now they have a massive issue on their hands.

• Fan reaction to the players last night on social media or even some of the media has me frustrated, even upset. They go from pointing fingers at coaches and the front office to blaming players in an instant. An important thing for some of these people out there to remember is the passing of Kirk Urso was one year ago this weekend.

I guess the soulless race to occupy the free space under Anthony Precourt's desk is officially on. For all those participating; let me know how that turns out.

• Finley's efforts inside the 18 yard box in the second half were oddly refreshing. He was taking too many touches all over the place but, well... two things about that (while I'm on lists):

1. It eventually lead to a Dynamo own goal.
2. Players can 'dribble' big 'keepers in MLS

You really don't see players trying to dribble the GK in MLS. It takes a ton of confidence and bad college habits (perhaps) but a lot of the keepers in MLS are big and slow and are mistake prone. Banging shots from 20 yds will not work (the Crew have proved that). Anyhow. Of course Finley took too many extra dribbles but I liked the activity.

• Oduro was pretty invisible most of the night, especially in the 2nd half. Would have liked to see him come charging off the bench in this one, especially with fresh legs in this heat. Would have been stealin' candy from a baby.

• Overall, Dynamo are a better team and the Crew are operating under a lot of distractions. Tough match.

Predictions: Crew (A) v Dynamo

Good Morning,

The Columbus Crew travel down to BBVA Compass Stadium today to take on the Houston Dynamo. Game start is 9 PM EST.

NOTES
-CLB: Lost 6 of last 8. Worst form in MLS.
-CLB: Ownership change last week.
-CLB: Lost 4 straight away.
-HOU: Will Bruin back from USMNT duty.
-HOU: 2-2-2 in last six. Average
-HOU: Fighting to keep playoff pace.

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PREDICTIONS
(In no particular order)

1. WV HOOLIGAN ... HOUSTON
"The Crew have been dreadful to watch as of late... Houston should control this one fairly easily." -Drew Epperley. He has the final score at 2:0 to the Dynamo.

2. HOME TEAM ... HOUSTON

3. WINDRAWWIN.COM ... HOUSTON
Large stake on a 1:0 Home win. Dynamo also getting 56% of the "Your Vote" while the Crew only pull 12%.

4. MLSSOCCER.COM ... HOUSTON
The team over there likes the Dynamo, 5 of the 6 votes went there. Only one Draw pick coming from Kristel Valencia, FutbolMLS Editor in Chief. Kristel is trailing everyone in pick accuracy (39%). Matt Doyle "Armchair Analyst" is most accurate at 47%.

5. GOAL.COM ... HOUSTON
Avi Creditor graces the one line summary this week: "The Dynamo have fallen out of the Eastern Conference's playoff places but can make headway with a home win over a Columbus side that was just sold to new ownership." Further own down the page we see that only a few fans have selected a winner but those that did go Houston.

6. TABLE POSITION ... HOUSTON

7. BET365.COM ... HOUSTON
Dynamo getting better than even odds this week at 4/5 (Draw 12/5, Crew 18/5). Scorelines are a little different this week. 11/2 for 1:0 Houston... 2:0 is at 7/1... 15/2 2:1 next up.

8. COLUMBUS DISPATCH ... LEAN, HOUSTON
Pick up the Dispatch today, Jardy talks about the impact of Precourt on today's match in his game preview, "...unless Precourt can provide a steadying presence during the final minutes of games, it is unlikely that the transition will have much impact on this one."

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MY THOUGHTS
We are on the backside of the MLS season so results start to become slightly more predictable. While Houston should be favored, I don't think they are world beaters. In fact, they are pretty average this year to date.

Houston is actually up against the wall a bit with the New England Revs battling them out for a playoff spot. The 'must wins' are over for the Crew, they are not for the Dynamo.

The Crew? The Crew.

The Crew are in a bit of no-man's land right now. The ownership handover desert, as it were. It reminds me of a wonderful part of a wonderful Uncharted 3 video game.

About midway through the game writer Amy Hennig along with designers Richard Lemarchand and Jacob Minkoff of Naughty Dog (the game makers) have you crash landing in the desert. No instructions, no direction, no nothing. Only sand for as far you can see in every direction.

I've mentioned here before that I have been through a few ownership changes (buyout/mergers). More recently on the side doing the buying past couple times but not long ago was on the other side. There is so much uncertainty. Rumors, backstabbing, tears, broken friendships, rubber burned in the parking lot...

I was the only employee from the floor retained when the company was bought out in a merger years ago. I didn't know it at the time but looking back I see that in a lot of ways it was like Nathan Drake in the middle of the desert.

Real or fake, bizarre video game blogger metaphor or actual situation... life really simplifies things for you when you are in that spot. You really only have two options.

Today, I'll be looking for the guys that fight.

Josh Williams, Columbus Crew

Bernardo Añor, Columbus Crew

Matías Sánchez, Columbus Crew