Monday, August 31, 2015

Trend: MLS Table, Previous 10 Weeks

Here is a look at the overall MLS table since the last week of June.

TeamPPGGD
New York Red Bulls2.201.50
L.A. Galaxy2.001.11
FC Dallas2.001.00
Columbus Crew1.910.09
Colorado Rapids1.800.10
New England Rev.1.63-0.13
Vancouver Whitecaps1.600.60
Sporting Kansas City1.60-0.10
Portland Timbers1.50-0.10
San Jose Earthquakes1.450.18
Toronto FC1.36-0.09
Houston Dynamo1.360.09
Chicago Fire1.18-0.09
DC United1.11-0.56
Montreal Impact1.100.00
Real Salt Lake1.10-0.60
New York City FC1.00-0.55
Philadelphia Union1.00-0.11
Seattle Sounders FC0.90-0.70
Orlando City0.60-1.50

...and here it is when teasing out just the Eastern Conference teams.

TeamPPGGD
New York Red Bulls2.201.50
Columbus Crew1.910.09
New England Rev.1.63-0.13
Toronto FC1.36-0.09
Chicago Fire1.18-0.09
DC United1.11-0.56
Montreal Impact1.100.00
New York City FC1.00-0.55
Philadelphia Union1.00-0.11
Orlando City0.60-1.50

A couple quick notes:

► NYRB and Crew SC are the only teams with a + goal differential
► Crew SC are on pace to catch DC United for the 2nd playoff spot (bye)
► DC United has an atrocious goal differential over last 10 weeks
► Outside the top 3, the East has been tough to watch. Lots of bad soccer this year.

THE EASTERN CONTENDERS 

NEW YORK
It's looking like the Red Bulls have the mojo going into the final set of games. On top of the results, they appear to have great team chemistry (comradery, spirit). They've been on an unbelievable run over the last 10 weeks, near perfect, and doing it with an astonishing +1.50 goal difference. What separates them from the rest of the pack is their balance. Overall, on the season, they are 3rd in GF and 4th in GA. The observation over the years has been thus: Good defenses get you through two-legged series. You have to be able to lock a team down.

COLUMBUS CREW SC
"Surging" is the best way to describe Columbus after an inconsistent first half of the season. No question they have qualified for the MLS Cup, but they do have some false horizons during this recent run, however. In their last four they have played an inconsistent (but improving) Colorado, a bad NYCFC (twice), plus a shorthanded Sporting KC. Another red flag for me is that they are not able to stop opponents from scoring. It's been an issue Gregg Berhalter has been willing to live with, but it will hurt them when playing a stout defense (which, in the East, only NY has).

TeamGA
New York Red Bulls0.90
Montreal Impact1.30
Chicago Fire1.36
New England Rev.1.50
Philadelphia Union1.56
DC United1.89
Columbus Crew1.91
Toronto FC2.09
New York City FC2.45
Orlando City2.60

NEW ENGLAND REVOLUTION
Here we are again with a healthy Jermaine Jones fixing most of the issues the team had early in the season. The Goals Against (GA) above is a little misleading as Jones has grown back into the line up they have shut out 3 teams in the last 5. Albeit weaker opponents, not many MLS teams have been able to do it. Outside of stellar recent results you have the concrete surface they play on to consider. No team is going to want to face New England.

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That's all I've got for my stretch run analysis this week. Feels good to finally get to this part of the season (the first part can be a bit of a slog). One thing not touched on here this week was the impact of international week(s) coming up. It will hurt the jockeying for spots and may trip of some of the form for some of the better teams. That's MLS though. Managing league quarks is half the battle. Stay tuned for more next week.

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