Crew SC Lack Hunger, Still Winless

Gregg Berhalter and Anthony Precourt's Columbus Crew SC is one that is very comfortable with not winning much for long stretches. In 2014, Columbus had an epic 16 match run where they only won one match and earned a measly 11 pts. Last year there was a sleepy 10 game run of 8pts in May/June.

Both of these runs are as bad as anything Robert Warzycha posted in his time, yet, it's clear that things are different. This Crew appears to be in control of the car while Warzycha's was often careening into oncoming traffic.

Last night Columbus left Frisco with a point on the back side of an international break. This makes four winless matches to start the season and six winless, digging back to last season's playoffs.

Greatness this isn't. It's a slog. And it's not fun. But it's working for this "new Crew" playing in this current competitive format in Major League Soccer.

We've said it here many times here at Helltown this year, and we'll say it again. This year's Crew team has a massive, pulsating, hangover from last year. The ease of which they are approaching this season appears to be almost by design. Maybe that will work, maybe not.

One thing is for certain, however. The world doesn't stop for you to recover and get that hunger back. While this new Crew SC might have a mini-history of bad stretches, none of them to start the season.

MLS gives you a long leash but there's an old saying out there that goes something like "jump on the day before it jumps on you." Words to live by, really. Same could be said about starting a season.

Ask a Columbus Blue Jacket fan.

The Red Card is not a Teaching Tool

MLS doesn't hide the fact it takes administrative cues from her father - the NFL. One of which is adding points of emphasis for officiating early in the season.

The methodology is simple and is common in many industries across the board. The way it works is thus - hit them hard, early and often with corrective action to get desired behavior. You may even see this where you work. Call-offs a problem? Put an emphasis on progressive counselling and write ups. Too much goofing off? Put an end to it by addressing it as it happens.

The theory is that after the early intense focus for a period of time, followed by a cool off period, you get people (players) behaving the way you want. A few years ago in MLS it was fouls (grappling) on corner kicks. If Crew fans remember back, think of Michael Parkhurst going down in the box in the first round against DC, thus earning a penalty. It was a wily veteran move that helped earn Columbus the three points.

Does it work? Has it made things better?

There's no evidence that this approach works in either the NFL or in MLS. In fact, it appears to be counterproductive.

In the specific case of grappling on corners in MLS, the emphasis ended up contributing in a record year for penalties. Oh, and also we see no difference now in grabbing in the box vs before there was any focus on it. In the NFL it appears that this sort of corrective management has caused a sort of rules crisis (a la the "what is a catch and what isn't" and tackling form / unnecessary roughness).

You can see from the image at the top of this post that red cards are being used as a punishment tool for whatever MLS is trying to clean up / correct in regards to player behavior. Eight red cards in the last nine games played. It's nuts.

Going back to the broader, real-world, implementation of this tool you see what sports leagues are doing wrong. Anyone in a management role could tell you this stuff.

Here are five things they are doing wrong...

1. Sports leagues are run by "sports people" (better to just say that first). Meaning: These folks start early in the industry and bounce around their whole career. Pick up a subscription to the Sports Business Journal to see examples. The folks making the calls are lifers with little outside experience. 

2. In MLS the crime does not fit the punishment. A red card completely changes the outcome of a match. It far and away outweighs something like a 15-yard penalty in the NFL (in keeping with the comparison). It's almost like MLS sees a red card as a yellow penalty flag. Interestingly enough, the NFL is looking at adding a type of red card in regards to personal fouls (ejecting a player after two). Again, though, a red puts you down a man where in the NFL you would just sub another player in. 

3. MLS, seemingly, doesn't consider the effect of the increased focus. Like in the grappling in the box leading to more penalties. Or, perhaps the most obvious, swinging the result of the entire match by merely trying to emphasis something. 

4. No follow-up. The most obvious. Once you remove the focus you have to check in on the results and maintain a level of focus, just not as intense. The fruit this tree grows is poisonous. No follow-up means players get confused as to the rules and the inconsistent implementation of them. This leads to frustration and more bad behavior!

5. Lastly. Careful documentation of the points of emphasis. It is impossible to prove MLS is not doing this but one can deduce that it is not happening because there isn't any noticeable change in player behavior. A general observation, yes, but the only change fans see is more reds early in the year and inconsistent whistles late season.

So, what is a better way to approach this for MLS? First off - stop using a catastrophic tool to get your point across (like, not using a sledgehammer to crack a nut, or terminating that employee next time they miss work). Second - communicate clearly what you want before AND after. Even going as far as a post-mortem. Did it work? Even if it didn't, tell you fans and employees. Mistakes are an important part of the improvement process. Airing them out helps prevent them from happening again.

[podcast] A Conversation in Helltown

Justin Bell and Larry Johnson talk about USMNT in the wake of the Guatemala match in Columbus. This recording started in the shadow of the US U23s losing to Colombia for the right to go to the Summer Olympics. It's informal. Hitting the record button and getting unmeasured, unfiltered thoughts as it was happening.

Crew SC's Saravia Key in Historic Guatemala Win over USA

The United States has had a dominate run over Guatemala in recent years. We've been told that you have to go back to the Reagan Administration to find a match that Guatemala won outright. While that is true, there's a touch of agenda behind that statement. If you take a look at it from another perspective you see that that the US has only one win over Guatemala away from home soil in modern history (2008).

Overall the record for the US in Guatemala since 1977 is 1 Win, 5 Drawn, 4 loses. It's clearly a tough place to play.

Making it even tougher for this US this past Friday was the mid-field play of recent Columbus Crew SC signing (via "super-draft") Rodrigo Saravia.

Saravia went the full 90 minutes in the win. Playing a mainly disciplined mid role he helped keep US players like Mix Diskerud, Michael Bradley, Bobby Wood and Clint Dempsey from finding any space or room to create in the Guatemalan half.

The US is horrible with the ball and they did dominate the passing category 505 / 303. What that means is Opta says US had over 60% of Possession. It's a misleading stat. Possession of the ball is a relative term for the USMNT. One could argue that letting the US fumble around with made the game easier for Guatemala. They were doing the work for them.

A lot on the line Tuesday when these two face off again in Columbus. Inside the importance to World Cup qualifying, it will also be the first time Saravia plays a competitive match at Crew Stadium.

The United States have never lost to Guatemala at home. It's an ugly, lopsided record. Undefeated. 13 wins, 1 draw for the Stars and Stripes with Guatemala managing only 3 goals in those games. A draw alone will be an unbelievable result, especially considering the game is nestled in the heartland of the country.

A tough environment like this are where a player like Rodrigo Saravia can make a career, however. It's one of these magnificent moments that you only get with soccer.

Game kicks off Tuesday evening.

Cruyff

Johan #Cruijff: de allergrootste...https://t.co/geNcOkxDHc

— AFC Ajax (@AFCAjax) March 24, 2016

2016 MLS on TV - Down

MLS is in year two of their television deal with ESPN, FOX and UDN. Things are down, but before we get started on year over year, let's run over the bullet points from the new deal:

- Package deal with USMNT
- 90 million dollars (SUM/USSF) annually
- Games will have fixed Sunday schedule, Friday on UDN
- Deal runs 8 years

Last year, I tracked 75 games across ESPN and FOX (FS1, FS2) in year one and another 22 on UDN.

Average Viewers in 2015: Network
330k: ESPN
222k: ESPN2
197k: FS1
64k: UDN

Now, for the year over year stuff through the first seven games on ESPN2 and FS1.

-29% Drop, Aggregate Viewers, 1st 7 games
2,117,000 - 2015
1,512,000 - 2016

-36% Drop, Median
289,000 - 2015
184,000 - 2016

-29% Drop, Average
302,428 - 2015
216,000 - 2016

Not sure how else to jump off this than to say it's bad news for MLS offices. They were (are?) banking on a stable schedule, particularly Sunday, to gain some traction. Year 2 now... and there's nothing to hang their hat on. If there were, you better bet MLS would try and capitalize on it.

TV / streaming is the most important thing for MLS going forward. Right now, it appears as if there is a group of about 150-200k that fall into the "hardcore" category. Meaning - that's the size of the group that puts MLS first over other things on television. Comparing this to other leagues, both college and professional, it's a viewership number that teeters on the edge of obscurity and bass fishing.

This year's start suggests that the 150-200k is eroding.

-------------

Live sporting events have weathered the 'cord-cutting' storm so far, but cracks are starting to show. Cable subscriptions are down across the board. 2nd tier programming like NASCAR and NCAA College Basketball are starting to dip. Many think it's only the first sign of the coming ratings-drop storm (or The Cable Apocolypse).

MLS falls in this group that might get hit hard by the shift away from traditional TV broadcasts. They have a nice streaming service but they only have a small base of "hardcores" to build on.

It'll be interesting to see where this goes. Good, bad... I'll be tracking. Numbers don't lie.

Raised Against the Grain...

Random, but I like this commercial. Not, in any way, supporting or promoting the advertiser. Posting it because it's old school America. One that's not popular anymore, but one we need. I've been looking for these folks for the past 15 years. I've found a few, but not many. More are out there. And there's only one country that has them. Whoever did this... kudos.

Boring, Lethargic Crew SC Draw Fire

The end of last night's Columbus, Chicago MLS match was perfect. After 90 minutes of mostly nothing happening there was a flurry of effort from half of the Crew side while the other half was still in "let's get back home, no MLS next weekend" mode.

Games between these two up in Chicago have a recent tradition of being pretty bad. I'm not sure if it's because there aren't direct flights or the weather or the usually sparse crowd, but they are most always dull. Maybe it's a combination of things? In either case, last night's match fits right in with the rest. 

Most of the blame should go on to the Crew. Chicago is coming off a string of bad seasons, so it is expected that they would place a focus on defending when one of the best scoring teams from last year rolled into town. Gregg Berhalter and company likely knew this - but no adjustments were made and the team lacked significant energy. It led to a massively boring game, which is now three massively boring in a row.

Shawn Mitchell put it best in today's Dispatch... "Everybody was happy, except those who had to sit and watch it. Pity the 12,605 who did."

IN a FUNK and EVERYONE GOT PAID

No question Columbus is in a post-MLS Cup Final loss funk still, but when should they snap out of it and how do they do it?

I looked at the "when" earlier this week and came to the loose conclusion that we will know if they are going to have a good or bad season by the 10th game or so. Looking at the math, Columbus has already dropped 8 pts out of their first three games. To match last season's start, they will need 13 pts from the next 7 games. Or; 1.86 points per game. Berhalter has topped that mark a couple times in a 10 game span before, so it is possible, but only if they put forth more effort in games.

Effort appears elusive right now, though. The is only one positional battle going on right now in the starting eleven (Justin Meram's left mid role) and virtually nothing going on when looking at players cracking the 18, down roster.

Compounding problems this year is that some key players got paid recently. Ethan Finlay, Kei Kamara and Federico Higuain to name the three most important. Some players, not all, regress a bit when they feel they've achieved their worth. Especially when there isn't anyone pushing them. Is this they case with these guys? Right now, absolutely. There is no reason to qualify that statement until they prove otherwise.

Columbus hasn't won a competitive MLS game, including preseason, since beating NY Red Bulls on November 22, 2015.

Next Crew game is sometime in April.

Starting "Top Worst" List

Two of the latest MLS teams to enter the league lined up against each other last night on UniMas. "On paper," this Orlando vs. NYCFC matchup comes across as a good one for the league. Big names, new cities in the league and most importantly - new branding!

Last year this game was the 3rd largest TV draw of the season, behind the MLS Cup Final and an August LA Galaxy / Seattle game. 

1. MLS Cup Final, ESPN - 668k

2. LA Galaxy vs. Seattle, ESPN - 549k

3. Orlando vs. NYCFC, ESPN 2 - 539k

UniMas ratings have been doing well comparatively to 2015, but strip out all the hoopla around expansion and all you are left with is the match itself. And it was terrible.

Terrible defending, wide open shots from in the box missing by yards (NY had 5 off target from inside the box), loads of lazy tackles, passes and a bad surface / pitch size on which it all went down.

The idea of a worst matches list gets thrown about this site a bit, but a list is never started. That changes this morning.

--------------------------------------

1. Colorado Rapids vs. Toronto FC, May 4th, 2013. This is the worst MLS game ever witnessed. I wrote about it over at Massive Report. I'll never forget it. The Brian Mullan "open field tackle" sticks out, but it'll forever be remembered because the play by play man wrote an apology letter to fans on the team site the next day.

2. NYCFC vs Orlando City, March 18, 2016. Highly energetic masterpiece of bad soccer.