Predictions: Crew Rd 19, SKC Home

Midweek game at Crew Stadium tonight. 7:30 PM EST, 6:30 Central kickoff time. Weather looks absolutely amazing, in the low 70s.

GAME NOTES
CLB: Gonzalez and Francis available
CLB: Coach Berhalter expected to mix up lineup
CLB: Roster disruption with Alvaro Rey departure
SKC: Beasler and Zusi looking to settle in line up
SKC: Had travel issues getting to Columbus
SKC: Former Crew GK Gruenebaum likely getting start

TEN PREDICTIONS
Number on left is percentage accuracy picking 2014 Columbus Crew results only.

56% WHOSCORED.COM ... SPORTING KC
Graham Ruthven has been remarkably accurate with Crew games this year. Likes KC to win this on by a 0-2 scoreline.

50% COLUMBUS DISPATCH ... SPORTING KC
"...the reigning MLS Cup champions will make it difficult for the Crew to enjoy much success," says beat writer Adam Jardy.

44% GOAL.COM ... SPORTING KC
Site writer mentions recent results "indicates the Crew have a tough task," as well as how well Sporting has done in last four games.

39% MLSSOCCER ... (no picks yet)

39% WIN DRAW WIN ... SPORTING KC
Large Stake on 0-1 away win. 46% of the vote going KC way, only 20% Crew.

33% BET365 ... SPORTING KC
Away favorites for this match. Crew only getting 2/1 odds, KC 13/10 (12/5 draw).

33% HOME TEAM ... COLUMBUS CREW

17% TABLE POSITION ... SPORTING KC
I expect this to catch up to the rest of the pack in the coming weeks. Crew three wins to start the year had a big effect.

--% WV HOOLIGAN ... (no picks)

--% MASSIVE REPORT ... (no pick)
Head over to Massive Report for Patrick Murphy's latest on the Columbus Crew.

MY PREDICTION
Crew will need something more than special to win. Act of God, really. Go enjoy the evening. By a brat, get a beer. Have fun.

Hey, Who's Next?

24 Million people in the United States of America watched the World Cup game between Portugal and "I Believe That...We Will Win."

Major League Soccer/SUM and ESPN/Univision Deportes/Fox recently signed a broadcast deal which will triple the television money flowing into MLS coffers.

Set time slots, Friday evening on Univision Deportes, Sunday 5pm/7pm on ESPN and Fox, are guaranteed by the new television contract.

Youth and adult participation numbers for soccer remain at all time highs in the United States.

While Major League Soccer viewership still lags behind the immense numbers posted by the NFL, NBA and major college sports, the trend is up.

NYCFC, an offshoot of Manchester City of English Premier League fame, joins the Major League Soccer party next year, along with Orlando City.

So, who's next to join the rapidly growing league and sport. Atlanta is guaranteed a spot in a few years time. Miami would be a great addition with David Beckham leading the charge, but the chance of a Miami team is dimming, politics and special interest groups lining up to block any possibility of a vibrant downtown/waterfront stadium.

The list of other cities capable of hosting a Major League Soccer team is long. Each city has it's own unique characteristics. Nashville is all music, all the time. San Antonio has the river walk. Sacramento is filled with hard working Californians trying to hold off the seismic splitting of the state into six separate states. Minnesota, well, they have snow, cold and some truly passionate fans of the beautiful game.

And then there's Las Vegas. The Las Vegas portrayed as Sin City, a mecca of gambling, booze and prostitution. Funny thing though, Las Vegas is so much more than the popular perception.

Hundreds of thousands of people, people from all over the world, call Las Vegas home. People who work at Starbucks. Doctors, lawyers, dentists, teachers, construction workers, politicians, and dreamers call Las Vegas home.

Step into downtown Las Vegas. Look around. Really look around. There is change happening in downtown. The changes are a breath of fresh air in a city which has always reinvented itself around the gambling industry.

Not this time. The gambling expansion has been left to the strip and the mega-casino/hotel corporations.

This time, downtown Las Vegas is pushing an Arts District on one side and a Zappos led revitalization on another side...and the efforts at non-gambling revitalization seem to be working. First Friday is a busy time in the Arts District. A short walk east on Fremont Street and you can see a gigantic praying mantis guarding the entrance to the unique Container Park development.

Amazingly, there is so much empty space around the outskirts of downtown its hard to imagine what's next. One thing is for sure, a Major League Soccer team in Symphony Park, just west of the Fremont Street Experience, would be a wonderful addition to the "New" downtown Las Vegas.

A Las Vegas franchise could grow with the surrounding efforts. No doubt, in five or ten years time, the residents of Las Vegas will have an exciting area in which to escape the ever present gaming industry. Standing on a corner in the Arts District, only a few hundred yards from the Findlay Sports and Entertainment Group's proposed site for a 25,000 seat stadium, I can see a place where Las Vegas comes together. Las Vegas feels right for Major League Soccer.

I've been in Columbus, Ohio, all my life and believe that the Crew can be a small part of making Columbus great. A Brewery District/Downtown stadium for the Black and Gold would make sense. It would "feel" right.

Las Vegas and soccer downtown has that "feel." I would choose Las Vegas if I were Major League Soccer.

Podcast: Red Cards in Helltown - Episode VII

Rick Gethin and Larry Johnson cover all the latest in this week's podcast.

00:50 SEGMENT 1 - Headlines
• Wrapping up the 2014 World Cup
• Highlights, Costa Rica, Crew players
• USMNT, putting a bow on it
• Klinsmann's future
• Germany / Brazil result, can't just throw players out there
• MLS looking to retain World Cup fans
• Premier League starting back up

19:30 SEGMENT 2 - Columbus Crew
• What has become of the Crew and the season
• Depth, roster issues
• Midfield is a mess, somethings broken
• Where is Alvaro Rey
• [audio] Berhalter post game Red Bull comments
• "Berhalter watch"? What might do him in
• The Parkhurst sub, angry
• Running over near, far term results and metrics

38:22 SEGMENT 3 - World Cup (down on MLS)
• Last World Cup segment :(
• MLS quality discussion
• "the fever" (in 1994)
• DeAndre Yedlin, finding the right aged player
• Being part of a soccer culture

51:30 SEGMENT 4 - Quick Hit, Wrap Up
• Beating up on the Crew lead to beating up on MLS
• Salary Cap talk on leagues in USA
• I ask Rick about shrinking US top division
• ...promotion / relegation can o' worms
• "wanna show me growth, show me increase in salary cap"

Lack of Depth, Quality, Preparation Sink Crew in NY

Standings said these teams were even though the same number of games but by the time it was over the gap couldn't have been greater.

With the loss the Crew drop to 15th on the overall MLS table and 7th in the East (on PPG). Even with 4 goals put past Steve Clark, the team is still 6th best in Goals against while slipping to 16th in Goals For.

Looking at near results things get pretty dire for the team. Over the last 10 matches the Crew are only averaging 1.00 GF while conseding 1.40 GA (-0.40 GD) and only earning 0.80 PPG (or last on the overall true table).

The Crew are notably missing 4 of 11 regular starters for a multitude of reasons, here is a list:

Hector Jimenez, Knee Injury (out 6-8 weeks)

Josh Williams, Groin (indefinite)

Giancarlo Gonzalez, World Cup (returning soon)

Waylon Francis, World Cup (returning soon)

In the early moments of the match Jairo Arrieta pulled up with a hamstring problem that will probably sideline him for a number of weeks. The Crew will also be missing Bernardo Anor for a couple matches due to card accumulation and a straight red received late last match.

With a short handed roster Gregg Berhalter thrust Adam Bedell into the line up where he was able to score. He held his own in a lone forward role most of the match. Ethan Finlay had another standout first half assisting on Bedell's goal. Late in the 2nd half we also saw Aaron Schoenfeld enter the match for the first time this year. Schoenfeld is on pace to break the USL Pro scoring record but looked a bit out of place here (no fault of his own).

The Crew tried to match NY by pressing high up the pitch and working quick counters but they ended up getting burnt pretty badly due to superior talent on the other side of the ball - therefore the approach to the match, especially considering the patchwork lineup, should be called into question.

Another questionable and potentially risky decision was for Berhalter to pull team captain and regular USMNT player Michael Parkhurst out midway though the second half. Parkhurst was clearly frustrated as he flipped his armband towards Wil Trapp (missing him and hitting the ground) as he drifted off to the bench, nearly ignoring the head coach before thinking better of it.

Theirry Henry's three assists and a goal were not the only difference in this one. The Crew have fires all over the roster that need put out or this season will be one to forget.

Crew take on a full strength Sporting KC this Wednesday.

Predictions: Crew Rd 18, NY Away

The Crew travel to Red Bull Arena today to take on, uh.. the Red Bulls. 7:00 PM EST kick off, 5:00 pm in Costa Rica for the fans that might want a like at three Ticos returning to league play.

GAME NOTES
CLB: Gonzalez and Francis available.
CLB: Williams still out, Higuain back.
CLB: Roster availability still unstable after rock solid start
NYR: At mostly full strength
NYR: Unbeaten in last 4, last two drawn. Score a lot at home
NYR: Fellow Costa Rican Roy Miller likely back

TEN PREDICTIONS
Number on left is percentage accuracy picking 2014 Columbus Crew results only.

53% WHOSCORED.COM ... NY RED BULLS
Graham Ruthven thinks; "There were signs of aggression and determination against the Coloradao Rapids and they will need some more of that against New York." 1-0 is his final guess in favor of NY.

470% COLUMBUS DISPATCH ... NY RED BULLS
"Until the Crew attack shows signs of its early-season potency, allowing any goals means the visitors will be happy to return home with one point." - Adam Jardy. Pick up a Dispatch, pros... obviously.

41% GOAL.COM ... DRAW (NY LEAN)
Pretty matter of fact from Thomas Floyd this week. "Field Report" reader predictions likes NY.

35% MLSSOCCER ... NY RED BULLS
All up on the Red Bulls this week. 5 for the win, one draw.

35% WIN DRAW WIN ... NY RED BULLS
This one is pretty close this week but leaning NY 2-1 and 37% in the "your vote" section (Crew 28%).

29% BET365 ... NY RED BULLS
4/5 Home side, 14/5 draw, 16/5 Crew. Interesting the fine margin between draw and away win this week. Otherwise pretty stander home favorite.

29% HOME TEAM ... NY RED BULLS

12% TABLE POSITION ... NY RED BULLS
Just barely. Teams have identical records.

--% WV HOOLIGAN ... (no picks)

--% MASSIVE REPORT ... (no pick)
Head over to Massive Report for Patrick Murphy's latest on the Columbus Crew.

MY PREDICTION
Looking forward to the regular season getting its groove back. This one, like so many games during and around the World Cup, just feels strange. Almost like summer camp or summer school.

What sticks out to me is how many goals the Red Bulls have been scoring at home over the last six matches (14). Combine that with Henry, Wright-Phillips (league leader in goals) and a motivated Cahill and this one could get ugly fast (even if Gonzales is back).

The Crew desperately need to find a win or two over the next few weeks. Not only to find some better footing in the standings but also to get fan interest back up.

Dangerous Play, Mistakes, Poor Officiating Highlight Crew Draw in Colorado

Colorado got away with a couple wild tackles that should have probably been red cards last night. One of them on Hector Jimenez might have been season ending. On top of that, there was a poor offside decision that took a goal away from Jairo Arrieta and, on the other side, a handball on Eric Gehrig that should have probably been a penalty.

Ultimately things fell all even at 1-1.

Notes on Crew Scoring:
• The Crew were very aggressive in attack but ended up being wasteful.
• Crew last in converting Shots on Target to non-penalty goals (takes 4.76 SOT to get 1 goal, or: only 21% of SOT go in). That's almost a full shot more than the league median.
• Average PPG for bottom 5 in converting SOT to Goals = 1.15
• Average PPG for top 5 = 1.67
• Ethan Finlay crossed 450 minutes played threshold, has 0.99 non-penalty goals (NPG)+assists per game (very good).
• Crew almost completely reliant on goals from right side of 18 yard box from Finlay and Justin Meram cutting in from the left atop the 18.
• Crew averaging less than one (0.88) NPG per game. Third lowest in league.
• Takes added touch, skill, technical ability to score at a pro level.

Crew Rd 17, Away to Colorado

July 4th means annual away match for the Columbus Crew. This year it is against the Colorado Rapids. Kick off is 9:30 PM EST.

 GAME NOTES 
CLB: Higuain and Trapp recovering, might be limited
CLB: Starters Giancarlo Gonzalez and Waylon Francis still in Brazil
CLB: Crew team rating dropped to 4th worse according to WhoScored
COL: Have won the last 3 between vs Crew
COL: Have won the last 3 at home, all by shutout
COL: Allow 2nd least shots per game (only behind Sporting KC)

 TEN PREDICTIONS 
Number on left is percentage accuracy picking 2014 Columbus Crew results only.

56% WHOSCORED.COM ... COLORADO RAPIDS
Graham Ruthven comfortably most accurate in picking Crew matches this year. His quick take: "The Columbus Crew are languishing in mid-table in the Eastern Conference, having drawn all of their last three games. The Crew will be looking to snap that streak against the Rapids, but with a win rather than a defeat."

50% COLUMBUS DISPATCH ... COLORADO RAPIDS
Lots of good Crew stuff in today's paper, you should go pick it up. Info and quotes on Gonzalez and comments on attendance. Adam Jardy thinks it's difficult to predict a Crew win today in his preview.

44% GOAL.COM ... (no preview yet)

38% MLSSOCCER ... (no picks yet)

38% WIN DRAW WIN ... COLORADO RAPIDS
Heavily Rapids this time. Large stake on 2-0 home win and Crew only getting 14% in the "your votes" (55% Rapids).

31% BET365 ... COLORADO RAPIDS
5/6 odds in Colorado's favor (13/5 draw, 16/5 Crew).

31% HOME TEAM ... COLORADO RAPIDS
Colorado is always a tough place to play but add in a rare Friday kick and likely larger crowd for fireworks and hill gets steeper.

13% TABLE POSITION ... COLORADO RAPIDS
Rapids have a pretty good young team.

--% WV HOOLIGAN ... (no pick)

--% MASSIVE REPORT ... (no pick)
Head over to Massive Report for Patrick Murphy's latest on the Columbus Crew.

 MY PREDICTION 

Dillon Powers, Rapids

Tough to say the Crew can pull this one out with almost half the regular starters either missing or in various stages of injury recovery.

Looking at longer view, Crew 10 and 20 game points per game averages in danger of bottoming out at lows not regularly seen in over 7 years. For this to change the Crew are going to have earn more than a couple wins in the coming weeks. The only thing keeping the team in the hunt is the bingo hopper most of the teams seem to have fallen in to during a World Cup year.

Never Not Zero Zero

Since the fifth round of the Crew's 2011 season I've never not written a recap for a regular season Crew match. That works out to be 100+ recaps as well as various summaries on reserve matches, friendlies and preseason. Looking back, I’ve never really struggled to put one together. I think some of that comes from my approach to games but most comes from just enjoying running back over a game with a curious mind.

That streak ends this week. Or ended. Or sort of ended with this FC Dallas vs. Crew match this past Sunday. I’ve thought quite a bit about why I haven’t conjured up a post on it. Maybe this is my post on it. Maybe the World Cup has sapped my MLS interest…

Or, maybe. Just maybe… the game, after all these recaps over the years, just wasn't worth writing about.

I really dislike that last idea, though. As bad as some games can be, my thought is that there is always something, no matter how small, to pull from any match. Maybe it was Ben Speas not finishing a game yet again (he’s only ever gone full 90 once in his MLS career). Perhaps a comment on new signing Alvaro Rey or how Berhalter is now deciding to focus on results. Something.

It’s all there to cover and think about but, in the end, the game was still a 0-0 final between two slightly below average MLS teams on a summer Sunday afternoon.

So, is that it? The reason for no recap? Like a crazy person, I’m genuinely asking myself. I think of other leagues and sports when less exciting teams face off. I’ve seen enough of the Blue Jackets down at this level. Or even the Cleveland Cavaliers or Browns. I've been following Stoke since they got promoted and Northampton Town in League 2, even. But there is something different about it when it’s MLS. Like, too much of it is out of the control of the teams and too predetermined. And it happens a lot.

Hardly a week goes bye where I don’t catch at least a couple non-Crew MLS matches. Sometimes as many as 4-5 on a lazy weekend, so I’m confident in saying that I’ve seen my fair share of duds. Look at the table right now. There are four teams on zero goal difference halfway through the year and another seven (7!) that are +/-3 goals. That is not parity, that is not “competitive,” it is fucking average. And it isn’t even a genuine average because the league controls so much of the movement of players.

MLS makes no bones about keeping things level between teams because they think Americans like that. I suppose they do when you have 300 lbs human males crushing into each other at full speed, or you are picking from hundreds of pro level prospects, but when you are watching a game that requires 11 guys playing as one you need 11 decent soccer players for it to be aesthetically attractive and something a normal person will want to pay and see. I love having Federico Higuain on the Crew, he is a great player, but how watchable it is when he flicks one over to Adam Bedell only to see him mishandle it out of bounds. I like Bedell and look forward to his development but should I have to pay 30 bucks + parking and 8 dollar beers to see it?

Look at basketball right now, especially college. It’s a mess as far as the sport is concerned. NBA as well. Remember those days that helped take NBA to the next level? Boston, Lakers, Detroit, even Chicago? They dominated and the league grew into what it is financially today. Were college ball and NBA to start where they are now with same rules - no one would watch that garbage.

Garbage is what most new soccer fans will be watching in MLS half the time. The “millennials,” a few of whom I work with, loved this World Cup but when you talk with them they mention other leagues (Bundesliga mostly, if you must know) and not MLS. Even if you goad them into watching MLS, they’ve already seen (and can see) good soccer in better leagues. They know the flipping difference. Asking them to watch MLS is like asking a gridiron fan to choose between the CFL and NFL. This is globalized generation with little to no war or great hate or fear. While they love their country, you can see the global view in the ironic social media meme's of bald eagles with automatic rifles in front of an American flag.

MLS has some great players as well as a handful of great minds running some of the teams - to where if you turned them loose, they could create rosters able to produce fantastic soccer. Instead you have a league actively focused on keeping greatness from happening. If parity is false or contrived, it doesn’t work. Before you point to the NBA or NHL, look at a list of teams that have moved cities over the past, say… 20 years or so. Also, if parity was so important you wouldn’t have college football dominating the sports landscape. People seek greatness and latch on. Look at the what the Patriots, Cowboys, 49ers, Steelers do for the league. Fans across the nation tune in to winners.

Nobody is tuned in to this 0-0 rescheduled MLS match between Dallas and the Crew, hell only 5000 fans of the reported 20k fans that bought tickets showed up. Why would they? Take away the planned fireworks and this is what is left.

Broader example of the media not caring is MLS commissioner Don Garber showing up on the very popular ESPN morning show "Mike and Mike" to talk about retaining soccer fans and getting them to tune in to MLS. ESPN had a "Sports Center update" before the interview that made no mention of the meaningless MLS games the previous night, which I though funny.

After being bombarded by league cheerleaders for three weeks during what otherwise is suppose to be an awesome World Cup event -  Maybe I should just turn into a normal old fan and go to a few games a year and make Steve Sirk's weekly Crew piece my only MLS read. Who knows.

-------------------------
Crew face Colorado away tomorrow night. A much needed three points for Berhalter's side. Should be an interesting one.

You Didn't Watch?

You didn’t watch the United States Men’s National Soccer Team play Belgium in the 2014 World Cup round of sixteen today?

You couldn’t find a bar or restaurant or friend’s place with a television tuned to the game. What’s that? You say you couldn’t be bothered. Too bad, the US men played their hearts out.

I’ll bet the truth is you took the advice of someone babbling incoherently on the radio. Advice which sounded something like this: “Soccer is only popular once every four years. People are only watching because national pride is on the line. Soccer players aren’t real athletes, no one is trying to decapitate them or beat them until they’re unconscious. Just ignore the World Cup, it will be over soon.” That is the kind of opinion which led to you skipping this...

Our goalie, Tim Howard, in what has to be considered one of the greatest displays of goalkeeping in the history of the World Cup, set the modern-day record for saves with 16. Red-blooded, intelligent defending from players like DaMarcus Beasley and Omar Gonzalez produced clearances off the goal line and last-second tackles to save sure goals. A nineteen-year-old named Green came into the game with the United States down 2-0 in overtime. Surely the youngest squad member was only inserted into the game to get experience for future World Cups? Surely, young Mr. Green couldn’t lift the dragging bodies and souls of his teammates from the brink of despair?

You know, you who chose to believe the haters, he did. And for ten glory-filled minutes those battle-worn, red, white and blue clad warriors climbed aboard Julian Green’s slim shoulders and somehow found untapped wells of energy they never knew they possessed. Men like Jermaine Jones, Clint Dempsey and Michael Bradley did what every great player does, no matter the circumstance, they set their own ego’s aside willingly and took their cues from the one amongst them capable of leading one last charge. That one who lit the fuse was the nineteen-year-old...Mr. Green.

In the end, the United States Men’s National Team lost a heartbreaking World Cup game to a Belgium side stocked with talent and not a little heart of their own. In the end, you, sir, because you let the most fearful in our midst convince you to skip the World Cup, you, sir, missed some of the finest competition ever seen.

Are you sure you couldn’t be bothered? I don’t believe that. I think you did what we have all done at one time or another. You let your own fear, fear of something new, get the better of you.